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A Story of Nealect
Daniel B. Levine, Kenneth Hill, and Robert Warren, editors
Pane} on Immigration Statistics
Committee on National Statistics
Commission on Behavioral and
Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1985
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences
and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of
furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance
with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter
of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership
corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National
Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to
the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered
jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering
and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of
the National Academy of Sciences.
This report was prepared for the Immigration and Naturalization Service, U. S. Department of
Justice, under contract number COW-2-90530. Points of view or opinions stated in this document
are those of the contractor and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the
Immigration and Naturalization Service or the U.S. Department of Justice.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 85-61694
International Standard Book Number 0-309-03589-9
First Printing, June 1985
Second Printing, April 1986
Printed in the United States of America
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Pane] on Immigration Statistics
BURTON H. SINGER (Chair), Department of Statistics, Columbia
University
SAM BERNSEN, Fragomen, De! Rey and Bernsen, Washington, D. C.
GEORGE BOR]AS, Department of Economics, University of California,
Santa Barbara
NORMAN CHERVANY, Department of Management Sciences, University
of Minnesota
CHARLES KEELY, Population Council, New York
ELLEN KRALY, Department of Geography, Colgate University
MILTON MORRIS, Joint Center for Political Studies, Washington, D.C.
ALEJANDRO PORTES, Department of Sociology, Johns Hopkins
University
JACK ROSENTHAL, The New York Times, New York
MARK ROSENZWEIG, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota
TERESA SULLIVAN, Department of Sociology, University of Texas
MARTA TIENDA, Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin
JAMES TRUSSELL, Office of Population Research, Princeton University
KENNETH WACHTER, Department of Statistics, University of California,
Berkeley
DANIEL B. LEVINE, Study Director
KENNETH HILL, Associate Study Director
ROBERT WARREN, Research Associate
ROBERTA PIROSKO, Administrative Secretary/Research Aide
. . .
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Committee on National Statistics
LINCOLN E. MOSES (Chair), Department of Statistics, Stanford University
LEO BREIMAN, Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley
JOEL E. COHEN, Laboratory of Populations, The Rockefeller University
WAYNE A. FULLER, Department of Statistics, lowa State University
SEYMOUR GEISSER, School of Statistics, University of Minnesota
F. THOMAS JUSTER, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan
JANE A. MENKEN, Office of Population Research, Princeton University
JOHN W. PRATT, Graduate School of Business, Harvard University
S. JAMES PRESS, Department of Statistics, University of California,
Riverside
CHRISTOPHER A. SIMS, Department of Economics, University of
Minnesota
BURTON H. SINGER, Department of Statistics, Columbia University
COURTENAY M. SLATER, CEC Associates, Washington, D. C.
JUDITH M. TANUR, Department of Sociology, State University of New
York, Stony Brook
DAVID L. WALLACE, Department of Statistics, University of Chicago
EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Executive Director
MIRON L. STRAP, Research Director
MICHELE W. ZINN, Administrative Associate
1V
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Contents
Acknowledgments
1 Overview and Major Recommendations
2 Immigration Policy: Past to Present
. .
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1
13
3 Needs for Statistics on Immigration 26
4 The Immigration and Naturalization Service
5 Other Government Sources of Information on Immigration
Bureau of Consular Affairs, 74
U.S. Department of Labor, 76
Bureau of Refugee Programs, 79
Office of Refugee Resettlement, 81
Bureau of the Census, 81
Transportation Systems Center, SS
Social Security Administration, 92
National Center for Health Statistics, 95
Customs Service, 97
6 The Role of Nongovernmental Activities in Immigration Studies
7
Collecting Data on Refugees and Asylees: An Illustration of a
Complex Process . . .
35
74
....... 101
110
Data Gaps and Ways to Fill Them 126
9 Recommendations
Glossary
APPENDIXES
A Selected Forms
143
149
v
159
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B Some Methodological Issues in Analyzing Data on Immigration .....
Indirect Approaches to Assessing Stocks and Flows of Migrants, 205
Kenneth Hill
Illegal Aliens: An Assessment, 225
Kenneth Hill
The Imputation and Treatment of Missing Data, 251
Kenneth Wachter
C The Settlement Process Among Mexican Migrants to the
United States: New Methods and Findings .........................
Douglas S. Massey
D A Review of Statistical Aspects Contained Within Pending Immigration
Legislation: A Letter Report to the INS, May 1983 ......
E A Summary of Pane} Activities
F Bibliographic Sources of Information
G Biographical Sketches of Pane} Members and Staff
V1
·
·
· ·
.
l
.. 203
255
·
.
... 293
301
..... 304
.. 325
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Acknowledgments
Many people contributed time and expertise to make this study possible, and we
are most appreciative of their cooperation and help. In particular, staff of the
Immigration and Naturalization Service at every level from headquarters
through regional, district, and Border Patrol offices to data processing facilities
and individual ports of entry cooperated with and contributed to the pane] and its
deliberations with admirable candor. Lisa Roney deserves special thanks for her
tireless efforts in opening doors and directing us to the appropriate people in the
service. Her advice, criticism, and suggestions over the past two years have been
invaluable. Our work on refugees has depended entirely on the advice,
encouragement, and work of Susan Forbes of the Refugee Policy Group and
Linda Gordon of the Office of Refugee Resettlement. In particular, Linda
Gordon's contributions to the panel's deliberations have been so extensive that
she should in every way be viewed as equivalent to a panel member. Our report
also benefited from the thoughtful comments of the many reviewers within the
Academy and from the reorganization and editing by Eugenia Grohman, associ-
ate director for reports, and Christine L. McShane, editor, of the Commission
on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education.
~ also wish to express my appreciation to my fellow panel members for their
generous contribution of time and expert knowledge and for their insights and
ideas, all of which helped to shape and are reflected in this report.
Finally, it is well known that behind every pane} of the National Research
Council, there is a staff that oversees the preparation of a final report. in this
instance, the staff, consisting of Daniel Levine as study director in collaboration
with Ken Hill, Bob Warren, and Roberta Pirosko, have done much more than
simply oversee the preparation of a report. They have provided an example of
excellence in research, writing, politics, and administrative organization that is
unsurpassed in my experience. The pane} and all those who benefit from this
report are deeply indebted to this outstanding team.
Burton H. Singer, Chair
Panel on Immigration
Statistics
. .
V11
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