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GLOBAL CHANGE AND OUR COMMON FUTURE
PAPERS FROM A FORUM
Ruth S.
DeFries and Thomas F
editors
.
Committee on Global Change
National Research Council
National Academy Press
Washington, D.G., 1989
Malone,
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board
of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special com-
petences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the r
furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the
authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate
that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters.
Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the
National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is
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National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting
national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements
of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences
to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of
policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the re-
sponsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be
an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute
of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916
to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of
furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with
general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating
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providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering
communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respec-
tively, of the National Research Council.
Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 89-62950
International Standard Book Number 0-309-04089-2
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20418
S015
First Printing, November 1989
Second Printing, August 1990
Copyright () 1989 by the National Academy of Sciences
No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic
process, or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval
system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written per-
mission from the publisher, except for the purposes of official use by the United States
Government.
Printed in the United States of America
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FOREWORD
As the decade of the 1980s draws to a close, the world community of
nations is on the brink of a new era. Our planet and the global envi-
ronment are witnessing the most profound changes in the brief history of
the human species. Human activity is the major agent of those changes--
depletion of stratospheric ozone, the threat of global warming, defores-
tation, acid deposition, the extinction of species, and others that have
not yet become apparent.
The roots of global environmental change are embedded in the advances
over the past few centuries in the understanding of the natural world and
the utilization of natural resources. These scientific and technological
advances have produced the driving forces of global change: an exponen-
tial growth in the world's population and even more rapid growth in the
potential for humans to transform natural resources into goods and
services to sustain that population. Over a period of half a million
years, the human population has grown to a total of 5 billion individ-
uals. Already, 40 percent of the planet's photosynthetic productivity is
being used, diverted, or wasted. But already, too, there is a marked
shortfall in meeting the basic human needs of more than a quarter of the
world's population.
During the approximately 4000 days that remain before the dawn of the
third millennium, Planet Earth will be asked to accommodate another
billion people--approximately equivalent to the current populations of
Africa, North America, and Europe combined. Within the next 50 years,
we must somehow learn to feed, clothe, house, educate, and meaningfully
employ an additional 5 billion individuals--the current population of the
entire world. Over 90 percent of this increase will take place in
developing countries.
To accommodate the doubling of the world's population at an accept-
able standard of living, a 5- to 10-fold increase in the productive ca-
pacity of the world's agriculture and industry will be required. This is
attainable, in principle, through scientific and technological progress,
provided humankind makes a long series of small but correct decisions in
the management of its affairs. It is theoretically possible for produc-
tive capacity to increase 2-fold in 1 decade in developing countries, and
in 2 to 3 decades in developed countries. For this challenging possi-
bility to become a reality, it is clear that humans must cast off their
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iv
unconscious role as the primary agent of global change and replace it
with a conscious role as prudent manager of change.
A special responsibility rests with the scientific and technological
community, which has developed the knowledge base that brings us to this
critical juncture. Now, the role of this community is to develop the
knowledge base upon which local, national, and global policy decisions
can be constructed with confidence. This function, however, cannot be
performed independently of the larger society of which science and
technology are a part. Thus the Forum on Global Change and Our Common
Future was organized to further the dialogue with the public on the key
issues related to describing, understanding, anticipating, and responding
to the dynamic interactions among the great interlocking physical,
chemical, biological, and social systems that regulate Planet Earth's '
unique environment for life and determine the changes in the total earth
system.
A grand convergence of natural scientists, engineers, social sci-
entists, and decision makers will be required worldwide. The World
Commission on Environment and Development has argued persuasively that
preservation and enhancement of the quality of the human environment,
wise stewardship of natural resources, and socioeconomic development are
inextricably related and mutually supportive. Moreover, the commission
has maintained that a guiding principle in successfully managing these
linked elements of global change is found in the concept Of IT sustainable
development"--development to meet the needs and aspirations of the
present generation without foreclosing options for future generations.
This concept implies balanced development between the developed and the
developing worlds to achieve intragenerational equity while protecting
the natural resource base to ensure intergenerational equity.
As revealed in the pages that follow, the tools and techniques for
understanding and responding to global environmental change are within
reach. It is not acceptable to defer action until all scientific issues
have been resolved unambiguously, nor is it advisable to undertake ac-
tions when the knowledge base is premature. There are salutary actions
that can be justified on narrower grounds that also address global envi-
ronmental concerns, and there are actions that are prudent even in the
face of residual uncertainty. To discriminate among these options, a
new, dynamic, and creative interaction between the scientific and tech-
nological community responsible for developing the knowledge base and
the decision-making institutions in the public and private sectors is
needed. The participation of the social sciences must be strengthened;
the role of engineering needs to be made more explicit. Nationally and
internationally, institutional renewal, adaptation, and innovation will
be required in both the knowledge-developing and decision-making domains.
An unprecedented degree of cooperation within the world community of
nations will be needed.
Basic to confronting the challenge of global change is a fundamental
reorientation in the way of thinking among individuals everywhere.
Ultimately, it is the aggregate effect of individual actions that will
maintain Planet Earth's unique environment for life. Individuals shape
the collective consciousness; individual consumers make choices that
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v
determine industrial policy;
to manage change.
We are rapidly approaching the end of the 5-century era within which
the ebb and flow of military might and economic strength have been the
key determinants of power, so perceptively described by Paul Kennedy in
his book titled The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers (Random House,
1987~. This era was brief--occupying only 1 percent of the span of
years known as the period of Modern Man--a scant 0.1 percent of the
individual citizens form the political will
rip —--I ~ ~ — r - - - ----
r
tenure of Homo sapiens on Planet Earth. We need to adopt a time
perspective that recognizes that just as Planet Earth is not more than
~~ ~ ~ so also should Homo sapiens be
Hallway through its late expectancy,
viewed as not being more than halfway through its life expectancy. We
are capable of managing our global affairs in a manner that looks forward
to another half-million years of survival for our species.
human species is no less wise than were the dinosaurs.
Surely, the
As we near the third millennium, an increasingly interdependent world
is at a critical watershed. Never before have we humans as a species
and as individual men and women, had such an opportunity to shape our
common future. This forum is intended as a contribution to the wide-
ranging discussions of the challenges and opportunities to determine that
future.
Ruth S. DeFries, National Research Council
Thomas F. Malone, St. Joseph College and
Immediate Past President, Sigma Xi
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PREFACE
Over the past few years, scientists, politicians, and the public have
become increasingly aware that human activities are profoundly changing
the global environment, with potentially severe consequences for human
welfare. Almost daily, the media report on some aspect of global change
--climate warming, deforestation, acid deposition, species extinction,
depletion of stratospheric ozone, or other changes in the earth system.
If the world's population continues to grow and if development proceeds
according to current trends, we are told, the natural resource base on
which our standard of living depends will be unavailable for future
generations.
The National Research Council's Committee on Global Change recognizes
that public understanding of the scientific issues of global change and
the implications for policy is crucial for an informed, rational approach
to addressing the complex issues of global change. Thus the committee
embarked on organizing the Forum on Global Change and Our Common Future,
held on May 2-3, 1989, at the National Theatre in Washington, D.~. The
need for such a public forum was so widely recognized that the Smith-
sonian Institution, the American Association for the Advancement of
Science, and Sigma Xi, the Scientific Research Society, joined the
National Academy of Sciences in cosponsoring the event.
The objectives of the forum were threefold: (1) to present to the
public a balanced and authoritative view of the wide range of global
change issues, including the science of the earth system, the impacts of
global change on society, and the implications for public policy; (2) to
describe developments in the emerging interdisciplinary approach to the
study of the earth system, aimed toward developing the knowledge base on
which rational public policy decisions on global change can be pursued;
and (3) to delineate the social, political, and economic framework within
which the scientific and technological issues and the policy options need
to be explored.
The forum grew out of several developments over the past decade. The
international scientific community, in response to the alarming and
overwhelming evidence that the earth system is changing in ways that are
not fully understood, is embarking on an ambitious and long-term research
program. The International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP), launched
by the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) in 1986, aims
'to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical, and
vii
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V111
biological processes that regulate the total earth system, the unique
environment it provides for life, the changes that are occurring in that
system, and the manner by which these changes are influenced by human
activities.' The IGBP and other international programs and national
efforts, including the U.S. Global Change Research Program, collectively
constitute a new, interdisciplinary approach to the study of the earth
system, with the ultimate objective being to predict changes in the
system fundamental to human well-being.
Meanwhile, the United Nation's World Commission on Environment and
Development, under the leadership of Mme. Gro Harlem Brundtland, prime
minister of Norway, addressed the broad array of social, economic, and
political issues associated with ttsustainable development"--development
to meet the needs and aspirations of the present generation without'
foreclosing options for future generations. Their findings were pub-
lished in 1987 in the notable book Our Common Future (Oxford University
Press).
Political interest in these issues of global environment and sus-
tainable development has quickened all over the world. An intergovern-
mental panel--the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--has been
convened within the United Nations to complement the nongovernmental ICSU
activities and to develop policy responses. In the United States, a
flurry of legislative proposals was introduced in the 100th Congress.
Throughout the world, these issues are being addressed at the highest
levels of government.
At the forum, the opening address by William Ruckelshaus, in which he
described society's stake in global change, set the stage for the two
days of discussion. The intrinsic variability of the global environment
over the geologic past was described by John Kutzbach as a prelude to an
examination of the earth system and its integrated components--the
atmosphere, the oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, and human interactions.
B. L. Turner II detailed the role of human activity in the global envi-
ronment; his discussion was followed by explorations of several mani-
festations of global change: greenhouse warming, stratospheric ozone
depletion, deforestation, and acid deposition. The implications of
these consequences of human activity were developed by Paul Ehrlich.
The impacts of global change on human well-being, introduced by
Lester Brown, were explored on the morning of May 3 and included impacts
on agriculture and water resources and effects on biodiversity, sea
level, and industry. The afternoon was dedicated to a discussion of
public policy implications by an array of speakers from the interna-
tional community and, in particular, from the Western Hemisphere. The
final evening was devoted to a panel summation, telecast to 52 Sigma Xi
chapters around the country.*
A highlight of the forum was the annual Benjamin Franklin Lecture by
Mme. Gro Harlem Brundtland. This challenging discussion, sponsored by
*For information about the availability of video recordings of the pre-
sentations by William Ruckelshaus, Mme. Gro Harlem Brundtland, and the
summary panel, contact Sigma Xi, 345 Whitney Avenue, New Haven, Connect-
icut 06511.
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ix
the National Science Foundation, the National Academy of Sciences, and
the American Association for the Advancement of Science, conveyed the
conviction of the World Commission on Environment and Development that a
more prosperous and more secure future is within reach.
This volume of papers includes 21 of the 38 presentations given at
the forum, as well as the address by Senator Albert Gore, Jr., given the
evening before the forum. The full range of issues covered in the forum
is listed in Appendix A.
Many people came together to organize the forum. First and fore-
most, thanks are due to the speakers for their time and effort in pre-
paring their thoughtful presentations. Harold Mooney, chairman of the
Committee on Global Change (Appendix B), originally conceived of the
forum and aided its development. From the Smithsonian Institution,
Thomas Lovejoy, Robert Hoffmann, and Judith Gradwohl were indispensable
in developing the program. Cheryl LaBerge and her staff in the Office of
Conference Services provided impeccable logistical support. Thanks go to
Pat Curlin and James Rowe of the American Association for the Advancement
of Science for their useful input, and to Ed Poziomek and Peter Lykos of
Sigma Xi for organizing the teleconferencing.
__= ~ _~ _~_ ~ ~ ___ __ =. Mary Keeney and Nan Smith
from the National Science Foundation were key in organizing the Franklin
Lecture. From the National Academy of Sciences, June Ewing was crucial
in all of the organizational aspects of the forum, as was John Perry for
his useful insights and comments. For editorial help in preparing the
manuscripts for publication, acknowledgments go to Doris Bouadjemi and
Susan Maurizi.
L.
)
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The Forum on Global Change and Our Common Future was organized by the
National Academy of Sciences; the Smithsonian Institution, in cooperation
with the U.S. Committee for Man and the Biosphere; the American Associa-
tion for the Advancement of Science; and Sigma Xi, the Scientific Re-
search Society.
The annual Benjamin Franklin Lecture, held in 1989 in conjunction
with the forum, is a featured activity of the National Science and Tech-
nology Week, an event created by the National Science Foundation to help
educate the public and encourage America's future scientists and engi-
neers. The Franklin Lecture is sponsored by the American Association for
the Advancement of Science, the National Science Foundation, and the Na-
tional Academy of Sciences.
Financial support for the forum was provided by the Business Round-
table, the Arthur L. Day Fund of the National Academy of Sciences, the
Geraldine R. Dodge Foundation, the Department of Energy, the Environ-
mental Protection Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administra-
tion, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National
Science Foundation, the Tinker Foundation, and the U.S. Committee for Man
and the Biosphere. The Rockefeller Foundation contributed to the support
of the teleconferencing.
The views presented in this volume are not necessarily those of the
organizing or sponsoring institutions.
x
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CONTENTS
PART A SOCIETY'S STAKE IN GLOBAL CHANGE
1. Toward a Global Environmental Policy
William D. Ruckelshaus, Browning-Ferris Industries
2. Global Change and Our Common Future: The Benjamin
Franklin Lecture
Gro Harlem Brundtland, Prime Minister of Norway
3. Global Change and Carrying Capacity: Implications for
Life on Earth
Paul R. Ehrlich, Gretchen C. Daily, and Anne H. Ehrl~ch,
Stanford University; Pamela Matson, NASA Ames Research
Center; and Peter Vitousek, Stanford University
PART B THE EARTH SYSTEM
4. The Earth System
Digby J. McLaren, Royal Society of Canada
5. Mission to Planet Earth Revisited
Thomas F. Malone, St. Joseph College, and
Robert Corell, National Science Foundation
6. Historical Perspectives:
the Millennia
Climatic Changes Throughout
John E. Kutzbach, University of Wisconsin
7. Mathematical Modeling of Greenhouse Warming: How Much
Do We Know?
J. D. Mahlman, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
8. The Earth's Fragile Ozone Shield
Susan Solomon, Environmental Research Laboratory,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
X1
3
10
19
31
34
50
62
73
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X11
9. Terrestrial Ecosystems
Peter M. Vitousek, Stanford University
10. Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change
Roberta Bals tad Miller, National Science Foundation 84
11. The Human Causes of Global Environmental Change
B. L. Turner II, Clark University
PART C IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE
12. What Does Global Change Mean for Society?
Lester R. Brown, Worldwatch Institute
Impacts of Future Sea Level Rise
78
90
103
James M. Broadus, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 125
14. Threats to Biological Diversity as the Earth Warms
Robert L. Peters, World Wildlife Fund
15. Deforestation and Its Role in Possible Changes in the
Brazilian Amazon
Eneas Salati and Reynaldo Luiz Victoria, Escola
Superior de Agricultura; Luiz Antonio Martinelli,
Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura; and
Jeffrey Edward Richey, University of Washington
16. Impacts of Global Change
139
159
Jose Goldemberg, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil 172
PART D IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICY
17. The Global Environment: A National Security Issue
Albert Gore, Jr., U.S. Senate
18. Implications for Public Policy: Options for Action
Martin W. Holdgate, International Union for Conser-
vation of Nature and Natural Resources
19. View from the North
Digby J. McLaren, Royal Society of Canada
20. View from the South
Marc J. Dourojeanni, The World Bank
177
187
194
198
21. Political Leadership and the Brundtland Report: What
Are the Implications for Public Policy?
Charles Caccia, Member of Parliament, Canada 204
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X111
22. Global Warming: Is It Real and Should It Be Part of a
Global Change Program?
Stephen H. Schneider, National Center for Atmospheric
Research
APPENDIXES
A Program--Forum on Global Change and Our Common Future
209
223
B Committee on Global Change and Oversight Committee Members 226
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