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OCR for page R1
FOOD AID
PROJ ECTIONS
FOR TH E
DECADE
OF THE
1990s
REPORT OF AN AD HOC PANEL MEETING
OCTOBER 6 & 7 1988
Board on Science and Technology for International Development
Office of International Affairs
National Research Council
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
OCR for page R2
National Academy Press · 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. · Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of
the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competence and with regard for
appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved
by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished
scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and
technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by
the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on
scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the
responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors
engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes
the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of
Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the
services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining
to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy
of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own
initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of
the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate
the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge
and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by
the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of
Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies
and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman,
respectively, of the National Research Council.
The Board on Science and Technology for International Development (BOSTID) of the Office of
International Affairs addresses a range of issues arising from the ways in which science and technology
in developing countries can stimulate and complement the complex processes of social and economic
development. It oversees a broad program of bilateral workshops with scientific organizations in developing
countries and conducts special studies.
This report has been prepared by an ad hoc advisory panel of the Board on Science and Technology
for International Development, Office of International Affairs, National Research Council. Staff support
was funded by the Agency for International Development, under Grant No. DAN-5052-C-00-6037-00.
Copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 89-43151
ISBN: 0-309-04268-2
Printed in the United States of America
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Preface
At the request of the Agency for International Development's Bureau for Food for Peace
and Private and Voluntary Assistance (AID/FVA) the Board on Science and Technology for
International Development (BOSTID) of the National Research Council (NRC) arranged
for an NRC-appointed pane} and a group of experts to convene for two days of discussions
concerning projections of needs for food aid in the decade 1990-2000. The objective of the
meeting was to examine the projections of food commodity trade and, either directly or by
deduction, food aid needs of developing countries, relying upon work of six principal groups
engaged in food commodity analysis—the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organiza-
tion (FAO) Commodities and Bade Division (and others), the World Bank International
Commodity Markets Division, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economics
Research Service Commodity Bade and Analysis Branch (and others), the International
Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Iowa State University Center for Agricultural
Research and Development (CARD), and the International Institute of Applied Systems
Analysis {QUASAR. Their projections were discussed from the r)f~rsn~f..t~i~r~ of ~ n''mh~r of
~ zig ~
specialists engaged in parallel types of analysis of future global economic, regional econo-
political, demographic, and climatic impact, scientific and technological research impact,
and risk forecasting.
Working closely with Raymond Hopkins of Swarthmore College, chairman of the NRC-
appointed panel, and Jon O'Rourke of AID/FVA, a substantive agenda was drawn up for
a two-day meeting involving approximately thirty distinguished participants drawn from
academia, government, and industry. (The list of participants, agenda, and contributed
papers are included as annexes to this report.)
The workshop was convened October 6-7, 1988, at the National Academy of Sciences'
Georgetown Facility. What follows is a two-part report of the meeting: an executive sum-
mary, which attempts to review the issues raised at the workshop and the conclusions
reached in non-technical language, and a summary report of the workshop discussions,
including a brief description of the food aid estimation methodologies. As with all endeav-
ors that attempt to bring together many different perspectives and distill large amounts
of information into a coherent form accessible to the non-speciaTist, based on only two
days of discussions, a number of challenges were faced in the design and implementation
· · ~
111
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of this project. As a result, a number of people deserve special thanks: the model-
ers, Ronald Duncan of the International Commodity Markets Division, the World Bank;
Hannan Ezekiel, International Food Policy Research Institute, Klaus Frohberg, Interna-
tional Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, and the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris, WiTli Meyers, Center for Agricultural
and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Bruno Larue and Karl Meilke, Department
of Agricultural Economics, University of Guelph, Ontario, Ray Nightingale and Ronald
Jostle, Economic Research Service, USDA, and Richard Perkins, Food and Agriculture
Organization of the UN, Rome; Edward Clay, Director of the Relief and Development Insti-
tute, London, Bruce Johnston, Food Research Institute, Stanford University, and Lawrence
Klein, Economics Department, University of Pennsylvania, who reviewed the draft report
on behalf of the NRC; Jon O'Rourke for his able technical liaison at AID/FVA and substan-
tive assistance; the panelists, for their helpful comments and suggestions; and Raymond
Hopkins, who served most ably as chairman, rewrote and edited many versions of the report,
and supplied good counsel throughout the process.
Michael McD. Dow
Mitchel B. Wallerstein
Office of International Affairs
National Research Council
February 28, 1989
1V
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PANEL ON FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS FOR THE 1990s
RAYMOND F. HOPKINS, Chairman, Department of Political Science, Swarthmore College
~ Chairman)
ROBERT KATES, Director, Alan Shawn Feinstein World Hunger Program, Brown
University
PER PINSTRUP-ANDERSEN, Nutrition Surveillance Unit, Division of Nutritional Sciences,
Cornell University
DONALD L. PLUCKNETT, Senior Scientific Adviser, The World Bank
BEATRICE ROGERS, School of Nutrition, Tufts University
NORMAN L. ROSENBERG, Director, Climate Resources Program, Resources for the Future
v
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WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS
RAYMOND HOPKINS, Chairman, Department of Political Science, Swarthmore College,
Swarthmore, Pennsylvania, (Chairman)
DUANE ACKER, Assistant to the Administrator for Food and Agriculture, Agency for
International Development, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT CHEN, Alan Shawn Feinstein World Hunger Program, Brown University,
Providence, Rhode Island
OWEN CYLKE, Acting Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Food for Peace and Voluntary
Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C.
CHRISTOPHER DELGADO, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington,
D.C.
RONALD DUNCAN, International Commodity Markets Division, The World Bank,
Washington, D.C.
HANNAN EZEKIEL, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C.
KLAUS FROHBERG, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,
Austria
JUDITH GILMORE, Latin American and Caribbean Division, Bureau of Food for Peace
and Voluntary Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C.
CHARLES HANRAHAN, Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, Washington,
D.C.
CHARLES HUTCHINSON, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT KATES, Director, Alan Shawn Feinstein World Hunger Program, Brown
University, Providence, Rhode Island
LAWRENCE KLEIN, Economics Department, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania
BRUNO LARUE, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph,
Ontario
MELANIE MARLETT, Nutrition Policy Adviser, Bureau for Program and Policy
Coordination, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C.
GENE MATHIA, Chief, Developing Economics Branch, Agriculture and Trade Analysis
Division, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington,
D.C.
DONALD MCCLELLAND, Nutrition Policy Adviser, Bureau for Program and Policy
Coordination, Agency for International Development, Washington, D.C.
KARL MEILKE, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph,
Ontario
WILLIAM MEYERS, Professor of Economics and Associate Administrator, Center for
Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa
RAY NIGHTINGALE, Economic Research Service, US Department of Agriculture
Washington, D.C.
JON O'ROURKE, Bureau for Food for Peace and Voluntary Assistance, Agency for
International Development, Washington, D.C.
RICHARD PERKINS, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Via delle
Terme di Caracalla, Rome
PER PINSTRUP-ANDERSEN, Nutrition Surveillance Unit, Division of Nutritional Sciences,
Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
V1
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DONALD PLUCKNETT, Senior Scientific Adviser, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
BARRY RILEY, Director, Office of Program, Policy and Management, Bureau of Food for
Peace and Voluntary Assistance, Agency for International Development, Washington,
D.C.
BEATRICE ROGERS, Tufts University, School of Nutrition, Medford, Massachusetts
NORMAN ROSENBERG, Director, Climate Resources Program, Resources for the Future,
Washington, D.C.
MARK SMITH, Commodity Trade & Analysis Branch, Economic Research Service, US
Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C.
RONALD TROSTLE, Chief, Commodity Trade & Analysis Branch, Economic Research
Service, US Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C.
National Research Council Staff
JAY J. DAVENPORT, Senior Program Officer, Board on Science and Technology for
International Development
JAY DORSEY, NRC Intern, Board on Science and Technology for International
Development
MICHAEL DOW, Associate Director, Studies, Board on Science and Technology for
International Development
SUSAN PIARULLI, Program Assistant, Board on Science and Technology for International
Development
MITCHEL B. WALLERSTEIN, Associate Executive Director, Office of International Affairs
· —
V11
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Principal Findings, 2
Definitions of Food Aid, 2
Methodologies, 3
Demographic Considerations, 4
Nutritional Considerations, 5
Estimates Compared, 5
Shocks That Could Affect Future Projections, 7
Weather and Climate, 7
Other External Factors, 8
WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS....
Introduction, 9
Definitions, 9
Methodology, 10
Food Commodity Trade and Aid Forecasting, 12
Output of the Models, 13
Presentation of IFPRI Figures, 15
Presentation of FAO Figures, 15
Presentation of World Bank Figures, 17
Presentation of FAPRI Figures, 18
Presentation of USDA Figures, 21
Presentation of IIASA Figures, 22
Macroeconomic Context, 24
Demographic Considerations, 27
Nutritional Context, 29
Technical Research and Development Context, 33
Climatic Impact Context, 34
Climate Change, 35
Drought Impact, 39
1X
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African Regional Context, 38
Estimating Food Aid, 40
Points of Consensus Reached by the Workshop, 42
References and Bibliography, 45
APPENDIXES
B
C
Medium Term Estimates of Demand-Based Food Aid Requirements and Their Vari-
ability by Hannan Ezekiel, 47
Food Aid Requirements of Developing Countries by Klaus Frohberg, 91
Commodity Market Outlook and Trade Implications Indicated by the FAPRT Analysis
by William Meyers, S. Devadoss, and Bruna Angel, 98
D Outlook for Grains and Soybeans to 2000 by Donald Mitchell, 122
E Workshop Statement by Richard Perkins, 140
F Food Aid Needs During the 1990s by Ronald Trostle, 154
G Long-term Agricultural Commodity Forecasts and Food Aid Needs by Bruno Larue
and Karl D. Meilke, 171