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ECOLOGICAL
INDICATORS
FOR THE
NATION
Committee to Evaluate Indicators for Monitoring Aquatic and
Terrestrial Environments
Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology
Water Science and Technology Board
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS · 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW · Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the
Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn
from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of
Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee re-
sponsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with re-
gard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under
Grant No. C R 825198-01.
Ecological Indicators for the Nation is available from the National Academy Press,
2101 Constitution Ave., N.W., Box 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or
(202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet
National Acaclemy of Sciences
National Acaclemy of Engineering
Institute of Meclicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating
society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research,
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1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern-
ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the
National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding
engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its
members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for
advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages
education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers.
Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in
the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The
Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon
its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education.
Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of
Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with
the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal govern-
ment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Acad-
emy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National
Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing
services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering commu-
nities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice
chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle
DONALD MATrISON (Vice Chair), March of Dimes, White Plains, New York
DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin
INGRlD C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
WILLIAM L. CHAMElDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
JOHN DOULL, The University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City
CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California
JOHN GERHART, University of California, Berkeley
I. PAUL OILMAN, Celera Genom~cs, Rockville, Maryland
BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis
MARK HARWELL, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico
CAROL HENRY, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia
BARBARA HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
JAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin Madison
DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario
JAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan
MARIO I. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
CHARLES O'MELLA, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
WILLEM F. PASSCHIER Health Council of the Netherlands
KIRK SMITH, University of Califomia, Berkeley
MARGARET N. STRAND, Oppenheimer Wolff Donnelly & Bayh, Washington, D.C.
TERRY F. YOSIE, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, VA
Senior Staff
JAMES J. REISA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology
CAROL A. MACZKA' Senior Program Director for Toxicology and Risk Assessment
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering
KULBIR BAKSHI. Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology
LEE R. PAULSON, Program Director for Resource Management
PREPUBLICATION COPY
COMMITTEE TO EVALUATE INDICATORS FOR
MONITORING AQUATIC AND TERRESTRIAL ENVIRONMENTS
GORDON H. ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle
MARTIN ALEXANDER, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
PATRICK L. BREZONIK, University of Minnesota, St. Paul
GRACE BRUSH, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
EVILLE GORHAM, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
ANTHONY rANETOS, World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.
ARTHUR H. rOHNSON, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
DANIEL V. MARKOWITZ, Malcolm Pirnie, Akron, Ohio
STEPHEN W. PACALA, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
rOHN PASTOR, University of Minnesota, Duluth
GARY W. PETERSEN, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
TAMES R. PRATT, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon
TERRY ROOT, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
MICHAEL L. ROSENZWEIG, University of Arizona, Tucson
MILTON RUSSELL, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
SUSAN STAFFORD, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
National Research Council Staff
DAVID POLICANSKY, Project Director
rEFFREY W. rACOBS, Senior Staff Officer
ANITA A. HALL, Project Assistant
STEPHANIE L. VANN, Project Assistant
v
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle
DONALD MATTISON (Vice Chair), March of Dimes, White Plains,
New York
DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin
INGRID C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins
WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
rOHN DOULL, The University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City
CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford,
California
rOHN GERHART, University of California, Berkeley
I. PAUL OILMAN, Celera Genomics, Rockville, Maryland
BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis
MARK HARWELL, University of Miami, Miami, Florida
ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute,
Albuquerque, New Mexico
CAROL HENRY, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia
BARBARA HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
TAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin, Madison
DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario
TAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan
MARIO I. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
CHARLES O'MELIA, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
WILLEM F. PASSCHIER, Health Council of the Netherlands
KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley
MARGARET N. STRAND, Oppenheimer Wolff Donnelly & Bayh,
Washington, D.C.
TERRY F. YOSIE, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, VA
Senior Staff
TAMES I. REISA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program
Director for Applied Ecology
CAROL A. MACZKA, Senior Program Director for Toxicology and Risk
Assessment
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental
S. , ~ . .
clences ana tngmeermg
KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology
LEE R. PAULSON, Program Director for Resource Management
Al
WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD
HENRY I. VAUX, rR. (Chair), University of California, Riverside
CAROL A. rOHNSTON (Vice Chair), University of Minnesota, Duluth
RICHELLE M. ALLEN-KING, Washington State University, Pullman
GREGORY B. BAECHER, University of Maryland, College Park
rOHN S. BOYER, University of Delaware, Lewes
rOHN BRISCOE, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
DENISE FORT, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
STEVEN P. GLOSS, University of Wyoming, Laramie
EVILLE GORHAM, University of Minnesota, St. Paul
WILLIAM A. rURY, University of California, Riverside
GARY S. LOGSDON, Black & Veatch, Cincinnati, Ohio
RICHARD G. LUTHY, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania
rOHN W. MORRIS, I. W. Morris Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
PHILLIP A. PALMER, DuPont Engineering, Wilmington, Delaware
REBECCA T. PARKIN, The George Washington University,
Washington, D.C.
rOAN B. ROSE, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg
RHODES TRUSSELL, Montgomery Watson, Inc., Pasadena, California
ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Staff
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director
CHRIS ELFRING, Senior Staff Officer
LAURA EHLERS, Senior Staff Officer
rEFFREY W. rACOBS, Senior Staff Officer
rEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Associate
MARK GIBSON, Research Associate
ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Assistant
ELLEN de GUZMAN, Senior Project Assistant
ANIKE rOHNSON, Project Assistant
. .
v''
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND
RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia,
Charlottesville
RICHARD A. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S.
Charleston, West Virginia
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
THOMAS I. GRAFF, Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland, California
EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park
DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
BRAD MOONEY, rR., I. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
HUGH C. MORRIS, E1 Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British
Columbia
H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens
MILTON RUSSELL, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park
ANDREW R. SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods
Hole, Massachusetts
VICTORIA I. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
Staff
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director
NANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
. . .
v'''
Preface
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is reevaluating its
approach to environmental monitoring. In this context, the agency
asked the National Research Council (NRC) to conduct a critical
scientific evaluation of indicators to monitor ecological changes from
either natural or anthropogenic causes. Specifically, EPA asked the NRC
to identify criteria for evaluating biological indicators, to evaluate methods
of indicator development, to provide examples of indicators that have
proven useful, and to identify areas where further research is likely to
yield more useful and powerful indicators. The NRC was also asked to
examine what aspects of environmental conditions and trends should be
monitored. It was also requested to identify aspects of ecosystem struc-
ture and functioning that have been particularly difficult to characterize
by means of indicators and to assess whether new approaches might
allow some of these aspects to be better characterized.
In response to EPA's request, the NRC established the Committee to
Evaluate Indicators for Monitoring Aquatic and Terrestrial Environments
(hereafter referred to as the "Indicators Committees. This committee has
focused on ecological indicators for EPA's Environmental Monitoring and
Assessment Program (EMAP), and for the needs of the ecological moni-
toring programs of other federal and state agencies as well. The Indica-
tors Committee's focus on ecological indicators of environmental status
and trends is timely, because the development of ecological indicators has
been more difficult than that of physical indicators, which has a rich and
extensive history. Today, the use of a number of physical indicators, such
1 ~
x
PREFACE
as atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, already command con-
siderable attention within the United States and internationally.
Ecological processes and products are varied and often complex, and
large numbers of ecological indicators have been developed and used.
These indicators are often intended to inform decision makers about the
status and trends in populations of particular species and small groups of
species, and in particular ecosystems. Useful though some of these indi-
cators may be, they do not provide a basis for evaluating in general terms
the state of the nation's ecosystems and how they are changing. Thus,
most current ecological indicators have limited use for guiding national
environmental policies. With this in mind, the Indicators Committee
decided that its main task was to identify and characterize general eco-
logical indicators capable of informing the public and decision makers
about the overall state of the nation's ecosystems and how those ecosys-
tems may be changing due to anthropogenic and other pressures.
Decision makers and the public need accurate information on eco-
logical conditions and changes for three major reasons. First, a long-term
record of conditions is needed as a reference to evaluate current condi-
tions and trends. Second, detailed information on the ecological effects of
various human activities and natural events such as pollution, develop-
ment, agriculture, climate change, and geomorphological events is es-
sential for selecting and implementing management options to address
problems successfully. Finally, long-term ecological data are needed for
society to measure the effectiveness and efficiency of management inter-
ventions and to improve them.
In responding to its charge, the Indicators Committee examined pre-
vious relevant reports of the National Research Council, including re-
views of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (Re-
view of EPA's Environmental Management and Assessment Program: Forests
and Estuaries t1994}, Surface Waters t1994}, Overall Evaluation t1995~), A
Review of the USGS. National Water Quality Assessment Pilot Program (1990),
Review of the Department of the Interior's Biomonitoring of Environmental
Status and Trends Program: The Draft Detailed Plan (1995), Biologic Markers
of Air-Pollution Stress and Damage in Forests (1989), Managing Troubled Wa-
ters: The Role of Marine Environmental Monitoring (1990), Animals as Senti-
nels of Environmental Health Hazards (1991), and four reviews of the Miner-
als Management Service's Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies
Program (Assessment ofthe U.S. Outer Continental ShelfEnvironmental Stud-
ies Program: I. Physical Oceanography 119901, II. Ecology 119921, III. Social
~All published by National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
PREFACE
Xl
i
and Economic Studies t1992}, and IV. Lessons and Opportunities 1993.
Recognizing that much effort had already been expended by many ca-
pable and informed people to devise ecological indicators, the Indicators
Committee also reviewed a wide array of documents produced by fed-
eral, state, and private agencies and individual investigators, many of
which have been published in peer-reviewed journals and books.
The Indicators Committee gratefully acknowledges the valuable pre-
sentations made at its meetings by Robert Huggett, Vice President for
Research and Graduate Studies, Michigan State University (then Assis-
tant Administrator for Research and Development, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency); Steven Paulsen, Director of the Environmental Moni-
toring and Assessment Program (EMAP), National Health and Environ-
mental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), Western Ecology Divi-
sion, U.S. Environmental Protection agency; Gilman Veith, Associate
Director for Ecology, NHEERL, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency;
Ray Wilhour, Associate Director for Science, Gulf Ecology Division,
NHEERL, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
As always, the work of the committee has depended greatly on its
supporting NRC staff. Anita Hall and Stephanie Vann have been respon-
sible for the complex logistics involved in committee meetings, and lef-
frey lacobs helped locate essential literature. km Reisa's insights and
experience with the topic much improved the clarity of this report. The
committee particularly acknowledges the extensive efforts and intellec-
tual contributions of the project director, David Policansky. Carole
Rosenzweig helped arranged the venue for a very productive meeting of
the committee in Arizona in February 1998.
Gordon Orians, Chair
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse
perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures
approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Com-
mittee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and
critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published
report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institu-
tional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study
charge. The review comments and draft manuscripts remain confidential
to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the
following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Ann Bartuska, U.S. Forest Service
William C. Clark, Harvard University
T. Clarence Davies, Resources for the Future
Richard Fisher, Texas A&M University
Lisa Graumlich, Montana State University
Mark A. Harwell, University of Miami
H. Ronald Pulliam, University of Georgia
Stephen Running, University of Montana
While the individuals listed above provided constructive comments
and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final
content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the
institution.
. . .
x'''
XIV
6
INDICATORS FOR NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENTS
The Nation's Ecological Capital: The Capacity of the Nation's
Ecosystems to Function, 57
Indicators of Ecological Capital: A. Biotic Raw Materials, 65
Indicators of the Performance of the Nation's Ecosystems, 78
Indicators of Nutrient-Use Efficiency and Nutrient Balances in Agroecosystems, 90
Research Needs, 96
LOCAL AND REGIONAL INDICATORS
Introduction, 99
Productivity Indicators, 99
Forests as an Example, 100
Indicators of Species Diversity, ~ 04
REFERENCES
APPENDIXES
A
B
C
Contents
56
VARIABILITY, COMPLEXITY, AND THE DESIGN OF SAMPLrNG
PROCEDURES .........................................................................................................
MARKOV MATRICES OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE ''
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS AND STAFF
PREPUBLICATION COPY
99
113
.135
143
147
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Scales and Applicability of Indicators, 2
Criteria for Evaluating Indicators, 3
The Committee's Conceptual Model for Choosing Indicators, 6
Policy Perspectives, 7
The Recommended Indicators, 7
Timing and Cost of Implementing the Committee's
Recommendations, 13
Local and Regional Indicators, 14
Care and Handling of Environmental Data, 17
Research, 17
1 INTRODUCTION
Why Are Ecological Indicators Needed?, 18
This Study, 21
Key Ecological Processes and Products That People Value, 22
Establishing Baselines to Evaluate Trends, 23
Evaluating Indicators, 25
Realistic Expectations about the Value of Indicators, 26
xv
1
18
XVI
CONTENTS
2 THE EMPIRICAL AND CONCEPTUAL FOUNDATIONS OF
INDICATORS
Scientific Underpinnings of Indicators, 29
Using Multiple Approaches, 31
Historical and Paleoecological Data As Aids to Indicator
Development, 31
Sources of Information about Current Ecological Processes, 34
Models to Assess Ecosystem Functioning, 43
The Committee's Conceptual Model for Choosing Indicators, 48
3 A FRAMEWORK FOR INDICATOR SELECTION
Criteria for Evaluating Indicators, 52
Information Handling and Calibration, 58
Data Quality Control, Archiving, and Assignment of
Responsibilities, 59
Use of the Committee Framework, 62
27
51
4 INDICATORS FOR NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENTS 64
The Extent and Status of the Nation's Ecosystems, 67
Indicators of Ecological Capital: A. Biotic Raw Materials, 75
Indicators of Ecological Capital: B. Abiotic Raw Materials, 83
Indicators of the Performance of the Nation's Ecosystems, 90
Indicators of Nutrient-Use Efficiency and Nutrient Balances in
Agroecosystems, 104
Research Needs, 113
5 LOCAL AND REGIONAL INDICATORS
Introduction, 116
Productivity Indicators, 117
Forests as an Example, 117
Indicators of Species Diversity, 123
6 REFERENCES
APPENDIXES
A VARIABILITY, COMPLEXITY, AND THE DESIGN OF
SAMPLING PROCEDURES
B MARKOV MATRICES OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE
C BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS
AND STAFF
INDEX
116
131
151
159
165
171
ECOLOGICAL
I N DICATORS
FOR THE
NATION