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Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
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Intelligence Analysis:
Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations
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The U.S. intelligence community (IC) is a complex human enterprise whose success depends on how well the people in it perform their work. Although often aided by sophisticated technologies, these people ultimately rely on their own intellect to identify, synthesize, and communicate the information on which the nation's security depends. The IC's success depends on having trained, motivated, and thoughtful people working within organizations able to understand, value, and coordinate their capabilities.

Intelligence Analysis provides up-to-date scientific guidance for the intelligence community (IC) so that it might improve individual and group judgments, communication between analysts, and analytic processes. The papers in this volume provide the detailed evidentiary base for the National Research Council's report, Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences. The opening chapter focuses on the structure, missions, operations, and characteristics of the IC while the following 12 papers provide in-depth reviews of key topics in three areas: analytic methods, analysts, and organizations.

Informed by the IC's unique missions and constraints, each paper documents the latest advancements of the relevant science and is a stand-alone resource for the IC's leadership and workforce. The collection allows readers to focus on one area of interest (analytic methods, analysts, or organizations) or even one particular aspect of a category. As a collection, the volume provides a broad perspective of the issues involved in making difficult decisions, which is at the heart of intelligence analysis.


Publication Info

350 pages | 6 x 9
ISBN: 978-0-309-17698-9

Table of Contents

skim chapter
Front Matter i-xiv
Part I: Introduction 1-2
1 Analysis in the U.S.Intelligence Community: Missions, Masters, and Methods--Thomas Fingar 3-28
Part II: Analytic Methods 29-30
2 Operations Research and Intelligence Analysis--Edward H. Kaplan 31-56
3 Applications of Game Theory in Support of Intelligence Analysis--Bruce Bueno de Mesquita 57-82
4 Use of Signal Detection Theory as a Tool for Enhancing Performance and Evaluating Tradecraft in Intelligence Analysis--Gary H. McClelland 83-100
5 Qualitative Analysis for the Intelligence Community--Kiron K. Skinner 101-114
Part III: Analysts 115-116
6 Individual Reasoning--Barbara A. Spellman 117-142
7 Intuitive Theories of Behavior--Hal R. Arkes and James Kajdasz 143-168
8 Group Processes in Intelligence Analysis--Reid Hastie 169-196
9 Social Categorization and Intergroup Dynamics--Catherine H. Tinsley 197-224
Part IV: Organizations 225-226
10 Communicating About Analysis--Baruch Fischhoff 227-248
11 Structuring Accountability Systems in Organizations: Key Trade-Offs and Critical Unknowns--Philip E. Tetlock and Barbara A. Mellers 249-270
12 Workforce Effectiveness: Acquiring Human Resources and Developing Human Capital--Steve W. J. Kozlowski 271-308
13 Implementing Change: Organizational Challenges--Amy Zegart 309-330
Appendix A: Contents List for *Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences* 331-332
Appendix B: Biographical Sketches of Authors and Staff 333-338

Suggested Citation

National Research Council. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2011.

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