Data on patent awards and trade are an indicator of inventiveness. But since the factors determining the granting of patents vary considerably among countries, more meaningful information can be obtained by comparing the number of patents awarded to nationals with those awarded to foreigners in each country (i.e. patents awarded to U.S. applicants by foreign countries minus patents awarded to foreign applicants by the U.S.). This yields an index which reflects the relative success of countries in developing products and processes of sufficient potential significance to warrant international patent protection. ²²

Over the period 1966 to 1970, the number of U.S. patents filed abroad has shown a steady decline; from about 32,500 to about 26,000. At the same time the number of foreign inventions filed in the U.S. has shown a slight rise; from about 9,000 to about 12,000. Thus, the net patent balance in favor of the U.S. has fallen from about +23,500 to about +14,000 over the five-year period.

On a country-by-country basis, the U.S. patent balance has been declining relative to Germany, Japan, France, and the U.K. In 1970 the “balances” were approximately: Germany, –1700; Japan, +2000; France, +4000; U.K., +9700.

In scientific and engineering publications, the U.S. share of the world literature is larger in 7 out of 8 fields than for any other country; the field of chemistry and metallurgy is the one exception. Some data are given in Table 8.62. The definition used for “quality” is the number of literature citations per publication. Overall, the U.S. literature had the highest “quality” index in most fields, followed by the U.K.

COSMAT undertook a detailed study of publications and patents in the field of MSE. The survey was based in large part on Chemical Abstracts (CA). This abstracting journal is known to have comprehensive coverage in MSE. Approximately 125,000 articles were abstracted by CA during 1970 in areas designated by the COSMAT survey as MSE. The percentage of CA abstracts in this materials area increased from 35% in 1950 to 45% in 1970 (Table 8.63) indicating a more rapid growth in MSE than in CA as a whole. Examination of Ulrich’s International Periodicals Directory (Table 8.64) indicated that there were many more articles than this published in the materials field in journals not abstracted as part of the scientific literature. These consist of semitechnical papers in trade journals and house organs which deal with MSE, but which do not constitute part of the “scientific” literature.

The relative growth of MSE publications is illustrated in the following figures, which compare the average annual growth rate of CA and the materials abstracts in CA during the past two decades.

The growth rate of the materials abstracts has remained constant over the past two decades (on average) at 9.2%, whereas the overall growth rate of CA has dropped from 8.8% to 6.7% per year. For comparison, the following numbers have been obtained by other investigators: the physics literature, based on Phys. Abstr. (Rep. Prog. Phys. 32, 709 (1969)) doubles every 8 years for a growth rate of 9.1% per year, the mathematics literature (Mazo, K.O., Science 154, 1672–3, (1966)) has grown at 2.5% (since 1880); the semiconductor physics literature has been growing at a rate of 13.4% (from 1963 to 1968) (Oliver, M.R., J. Doc. 27(1), 1–10 (1971)). Studies which cover a long period of time (from 1900 or so) show lower growth rates. This can be seen in the study of C.C.Holt and W.E.Schrank (Amer. Doc. 19, 18–26 (1968)) as summarized by the following growth rates in publications: D.B.Baker (Chem. Eng’g. News 39, 78 (1961)) points out that the overall growth rate of CA was about 3.8% from 1907 to 1960, and that the years since 1945 (the period covered by COSMAT) represent a period of rapid growth following a decline during WW II. A similar period of decline was observed during WW I, followed by a period of rapid growth which lasted into the early 1930’s.

How long the current rapid growth (9% per year) of the materials literature will continue clearly depends on world events. Extrapolation of the long-term 4% annual growth rate of such literature indicates a reversal, or at very least a decrease in the growth rate from the present level. But there is no real indication of this decrease yet.

The growth rate of the literature in various categories is illustrated in the following charts and tables. Several points are apparent. The U.S., which held a good lead in publication rate over all other countries throughout the late 1940’s and early 1950’s, had almost no growth during this period and lost the lead in the late 1950’s to U.S.S.R. (Figure 8.5). U.S.S.R. is now publishing papers in the materials area at a greater rate than the U.S., and in recent years has been widening the gap (hereinafter referred to as the “paper gap”). Germany, Japan, United Kingdom and France are the next most prolific countries. They are all roughly comparable in current publishing rate, but a factor of five to six less than U.S.S.R. and the U.S. The four taken together are slightly below the U.S., and slightly above the total of “all other” countries.

During the years 1946–1970, the materials literature from the U.S.S.R. has increased at an average annual rate of 12%, while that from the U.S. has increased at an average annual rate of 7% during this period. This 7% growth rate for U.S. literature can be divided into two periods: 1946 to 1955 when almost no growth occurred, and 1955 to 1970 when the growth rate was 11.3% (see Figure 8.5).

A similar decline in the percentage of total CA abstracts from the U.S. and an increase in those from the U.S.S.R. is reported by D.B.Baker (op cit) up to 1960. The U.S. still had a confortable lead in the total abstracts in 1960:27.1% for the U.S. as compared to 19.1% for the U.S.S.R., but Baker noted an increased growth rate from the U.S.S.R., and predicted a crossover in 1965. Our data indicate a crossover in materials literature somewhat earlier (1957).

Within the U.S. (Figure 8.6), the most remarkable change is the post World War II growth of papers from educational institutions.

A sampling of 1970 papers indicates that the U.S.S.R. leads in publication rate in the categories of Elastomers, including Natural Rubber; Cellulose, Lignin, Paper, etc.; Mineralogy and Geological Chemistry; Extractive Metallurgy; Ferrous Metallurgy and Alloys; Cement and Concrete Products; Phase Equilibria and Chemical Equilibria. In each of these areas, it publishes at a rate at least twice that of the U.S., and accounts for about half of the total. These categories are concentrated in the “heavy industry” sectors. There are several categories in which the U.S. has a significant lead, such as Synthetic High Polymers; Plastics; General Physical Chemistry; Crystallization and Crystal Structure; Electric and Magnetic Phenomena; Spectroscopy; and Nuclear Technology. These tend to be concentrated in the “high technology” sectors. But the U.S.S.R. and other countries are also publishing strongly in these areas.

FIGURE 8.5

FIGURE 8.6

The difference in emphasis between the U.S.S.R. and the U.S. in the “heavy industry” and “high technology” sectors respectively, raises the following point: close track of the foreign literature is kept in the high—technology areas, but one wonders whether the same close track is kept of the heavy-industry foreign literature from which, judging from the publishing rates, the U.S. has relatively more to learn.

Because the Chemical Abstracts patent coverage is not comprehensive, it does not represent an unbiased cross section of world-wide patent activity. For example, direct comparison of the U.S. and U.S.S.R. patent activity based on CA is risky. Nevertheless, some conclusions may be drawn concerning the distribution of materials patent effort within a particular country. Areas in which patents are generated strongly in the U.S., such as plastics, electric phenomena, and radiation chemistry, are also areas in which papers from the U.S. are published at a comparatively high rate. Japan, Germany and the U.K. have relatively high patent rates in the categories of polymers, plastics, and textiles. Japan also has a relatively high patent rate in the category of electric phenomena.

It is worth mentioning that in the U.S. very few patents are filed by institutions in the educational, governmental or “other” classes.

The growth rate of the materials literature is rapid and represents a significant and expanding man-power investment. The categories of strong publication seem to reflect the areas of strong industrial activity in various countries.