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STATISTICS OF DISTRIBUTIONS
If you're not counting photons or marbles or poll responses and the like, but
rather are getting a distribution of answers to a question, you can't use Poisson
statistics! For example, you want to know the height of an American adult. So
you ask 89 adults how tall they are. You might get a range of answers like this:
Ht. (inches) Number of people
------------ ----------------
60 ooo
61 oo
62 oooo
63 oooo
64 ooooo ooooo oooo
65 ooooo oo
66 ooooo ooooo ooo
67 ooooo o
68 ooooo ooooo o
69 ooooo ooo
70 oo
71 oo
72 oo
73 oooo
74 o
75 ooo
76 oo
77
78 o
You could just take the average, that is the arithmetic mean; add up
all the heights, then divided by the number of people in the survey.
You'll get a number like 5'7" or so. How accurately does that number
represent the height of an American adult?
Well, it may be close to an average, but clearly there are a LOT of
people who aren't 5'7" (or, 67" if we just use inches). What we realize here is
that this distribution is more like a "bell curve" with a peak around 66" or so;
and the width of the "bell curve" halfway between the base and the peak tells you
how widely distributed the spread is.
Let's use a more contrived example. I ask the students in a class to measure the
brightness of the Moon. This is the distribution of answers:
12 oo
oooo
oooo
9 ooooo
ooooooo
ooooooooo
6 oooooooooo
oooooooooooo
ooooooooooooooo
3 o ooooooooooooooo
o o ooooooooooooooooooo o
oooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
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90 100 110 120 130 (flux units)
It looks like there is a bell-shaped curve, with a maximum of 12 units. The width
of the bell curve at half the maximum (in this case, 6 units) runs from about 106
to 117 units; and the center of the bell curve looks to be about 110.5 units. So
in this case, the most likely value of the true brightness of the moon is 110.5
flux units, and the margin of error is plus or minus 5.5 flux units. This means
that the FULL WIDTH AT HALF MAXIMUM of this distribution is 11 units (106 to 117),
and the margin of error is half of that width in each direction.
Notice there are irregularities and slight asymmetry in the bell curve. Data from
real-world observations are always likely to be imperfect; it is up to us, the
analyzers of the data, to spot the peak, the FWHM, and interpret the data
effectively.
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