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OCR for page R1
Responding
to Changes in
Sea Level
.
Engineenng Implications
Committee on Engineenng Implications
of Changes in Relative Mean Sea Level
Marine Board
Commission on Engineenng and Technical Systems
National Research Council
National Academy Press
Washington, D.C. 1987
OCR for page R2
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS · 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW · Washington' DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board
of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The
members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen Or their special competences and
with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the
charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to
advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of
the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the Na-
tional Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous
in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy
of Sciencce the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of
Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages
education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M.
White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences
to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of
policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility
given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the
federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and
education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Rceearch Council waa-organised by the National Academy of Sciences in
1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes
of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with
general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating
agency of both the National Academy of Sciences sued the National Academy of Engineering in
providing aer~ricea to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities.
The Council is administered jointly by both Academica and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Frank
Press and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice-chairmu~, respectively, of the National
ResearcIL Council.
This report represents world supported by Cooperative Agreement Nos. 14-12-001-30301
and 14-12-0001-30228 between the Minerals Management Service of the U.S. Department of the
Interior and the National Academy of Sciences.
library of Cougrece Catalog -Publication Data
National R - Arch Council (U.S.). Committee on
Engineering Implications of Changes in Relative
Mean Sea Laurel.
Responding to changes in sea level.
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
1. Coastal engineering—United States. 2. Sea
level—United States. I. National R - earch Council
(U.S.). Marine Board. II. Title.
TC223.N37 1987 627 87-21965
ISBN ~309-03781-6
Printed in the United States of America
First Pnuting, September 1987
Second Printing, July 1988
Third Printing, September 1991
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COMMITTEE ON 1:NGINEERING IMPLICATIONS
OF CHANGES IN RELATWE MEAN SEA LEVEL
ROBERT G. DEAN, Chairman, University of Florida
ROBERT A. DALRYMPLE, University of Delaware
RHODES W. FAIRBRIDGE, Columbia University
STEPHEN P. LEATHERMAN, University of Maryland
DAG NUMMEDAL, Louisiana State University
MORROUGH P . O 'BRIEN, University of California, Berkeley
ORRIN H. PILKEY, Duke University
WILTON STURGES TIT, Florida State University
ROBERT L. WIEGEL, University of California? Berkeley
Government Liaisons
JACK E. RANCHER, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration
SUZETTE KIMBEL, Department of the Army
PAUL G. TELEKI, U.S. Geological Survey
JAMES G. TITUS, Environmental Protection Agency
Staff
MARTIN ~ . FINERTY, JR., Staff Officer, July 1985-January 1987
AURORA GALLAGHER, Senior Staff Officer to July 1985
ANDREA CORELL, Editorial Consultant
JOYCE B. SOMERVILLE, Administrative Secretly
· - .
111
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THE MAR[r{1: BOARD
WILLIAM C. WEBSTER, Chairman, University of California,
Berkeley, California
RICHARD T. SOPER, Vice-chairman, American Bureau of
Shipping, Paramus, New Jersey
ROGER D. ANDERSON, Cox's Wholesale Seafood, Inc., Tampa,
Florida
KENNETH A. BLENKARN, Amoco Production Company, Tulsa,
Oklahoma
DONALD F. BOESCH, Louisiana Universities Marine
Consortium, Chagrin, Louisiana
C. RUSSELL BRYAN, U.S. Navy (retired), St. Leonard, Maryland
F. PAT DUNN, Shell Oil Company, Houston, Texas
JOHN HALKYARD, Arctec Offshore Corporation, Escondido,
California
EUGENE H. HARLOW, Soros Associates Consulting Engineers,
New York, New York
CHARLES D. HOLLISTER, WOODS Hole Oceanographic
Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
PETER JAQUITH, Bath Iron Works, Bath, Mane
KENNETH S. KAMLET, URS Dalton, Washington, D.C.
DON E. KASH, University of Oklahoma
WARREN LEBACK, Puerto Rico Marine Management, ~c.,
Elizabeth, New Jersey
ERNEST L. PERRY, Port of Los Angeles (retired), Sun City,
Arizona
RICHARD J. SEYMOUR, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La
Jolia, California
SIDNEY WALLACE, U.S. Coast Guard (retired), Reston, Virginia
Staff
CHARLES A. BOOKMAN, Director
DONALD W. PERKINS, Associate Director
RICHARD W. RUMKE, Senior Program Officer
CELIA CHEN, Program Officer
C. LINCOLN CRANE, Program Officer
DORIS C. HOLMES, Administrative Associate
AURORE BLECK, Senior Secretary
JANET CROOKS, Senior Secretary
OYCE B . S OMERVILLE, Administrative Secretary
1V
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Preface
A large and growing proportion of the nation's population,
facilities, and development is located along the Atlantic, Gulf,
and Pacific coasts. Maintaining a sensitive balance of land with
local sea levels may become more and more difficult in view of an
increased rate of rme in worldwide sea level that has been predicted
through the turn of the next century due to the projected global
ware g.
The National Research Council's Board on Atmospheric Sci-
ences and Climate (BASC) and others have estimated that worId-
wide sea level may rise 70 cm (~25 percent) by the year 2075 as
a result of thermal expulsion, the melting of alpine and Green-
land glaciers, and possible disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice
Sheet (National Research Council, 1983~. Such a rise would have
significant implications for coastal communities and coastal eng~-
neer~g, the discipline that must address the problems of erosion
and structural protection.
This study was initiated because of the potential consequences
of such a rise to human life, communities, facilities, and the en-
vironment, and considering the large investment in developing
coastal areas. The study's goal was to establish a basis for coastal
planners, engineers, and government agencies to carry out their
responsibilities ~ the presence of an anticipated increase in the
v
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V1
PREFA HE
rate of sea level rise over the next several decades. To focus this
effort the Committee on Engineering Implications of Changes in
Relative Mean Sea Level outlined the following objectives:
.
examine knowledge concerning mean sea level changes;
establish the rate of relative sea level change around the
continental United States, based on tide gauge results;
project sea level rise for engineering use over the next 100
years;
examine the likely responses of sandy shorelines and wet-
innds to sea level rise;
examine the potential effects on engineering works and
built facilities;
review measures for both preventing erosion and adapting
to it; and
determine whether new technologies are required.
Aspects of sea level change that do not have specific engineer-
ing implications, such as biological effects and land use planning,
are outside the scope of the study, and are not directly discussed.
A committee of nine members was formed with expertise in
coastal geomorphology, coastal engineering, and physical oceanog-
raphy (see Appendix A). Representatives of four government agen-
cies with specific interests ~ the subject were designated as liaison
members to the committee. The principle guiding the constitution
of the committee and its work, consistent with the policy of the
National Research Council, was not to exclude members with pm
tential biases that might accompany expertise vital to the study,
but to seek balance and fair treatment.
The committee reviewed a variety of background materials
from a variety of sources, including the International Geological
Correlation Program 2()0 Project; Permanent Service for Mean
Sea Level, Bidston Observatory, United Kingdom; Commission
on Shorelines of the International Union of Quaternary Research;
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; and the National Research
Council. The committee met several times over a 2-year period.
Two workshops were also held in Washington, D.C. to review in-
formation presented by representatives of the private and public
sectors, in addition to many other pane! meetings over a 3-year-
period. The issues addressed included climate and oceanic models,
OCR for page R7
PREFACE
. —
V11
instrumentation for measuring sea level change, analysis of avail-
able records, potential contributors to change, economic implica-
tions of various scenarios of sea level rise, coastal drainage with
rising sea level, coast protection techniques and structures, and
physical processes of land loss in marshlands. A commissioned
study was sponsored to investigate the effect on mean water levels
in bays.
Based on comrn~ttee activities and the professional experience
of the members, the committee's conclusions and recommenda-
tions are presented in the Executive Summary and Chapter 9.
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 RELATIVE MEAN SEA LEVEL 9
Past Changes ~ Relative Mean Sea Level, 12
Methods of Observing Relative Mean Sea Level, 19
2 ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN RELATIVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL
Estimates of Future Mean Sea Level Rise, 24
Scenarios Used in This Report, 28
3 RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE EFFECTS AND
RESPONSES
4 AFFECTED HYDRODYNAMIC PROCESSES 34
Storm Surge, 34
Tidal Ranges and Currents, 36
Waves, 37
5 EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE
COASTAL ZONE 40
Sandy Coastlines, 45
Bluff and Cliff Retreat, 61
Tidal Inlets, 62
Wetlands, 64
24
31
1X
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x
6 ALTERNATIVE RESPONSES ....................
Coastal Structures and Protective Techniques, 72
Retreat, 91
Controlling the Rate of Sea Level Rise, 94
7 ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSE STRATEGIES
FOR SPECIFIC FACILITIES AND SYSTEMS..
CONTENTS
..72
.96
Airports, 98
Levees, 98
Sedimentation of Seaports and Harbors, Navigation Channels
Turning Basins, and Docking Areas, 102
Breakwaters, Sea Weds, and Jetties, 105
Navigation Gates, 106
Piers and Wharves, 106
Dry Docks and Wet Docks, 107
Highways, Railroads, Bridges, and Vehicular Tunnels, 108
Commercial and Industrial Buildings, 109
Power Plants, 109
Pipelines, 110
Flooding and Storm Drains, 110
Hotels and MaDs, 112
Residential Centers, 112
Water Supply Systems, 113
Landfi~Is and Waste Disposal Sites, 115
Offshore Platforms and Artificial Islands, 115
8 DECISIONS FOR THE FUTURE ........................
Strategic Decisions, 117
Environmental Factors, 120
National Policy Decisions, 121
9 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.
REFERENCES . .
APPENDIXES
A. Summary of Committee Expertise
B. Acknowledgments. -
INDEX.
117
122
...126
137
141
143
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Responding
to Changes in
Sea Level
Engineering ImpZicahons
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