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N E EARTH
OUR CHANGING GIOBAI ENVIRONMENT
ONE FUTURE
by
Cheryl Simon Silver
wit
Rum S. Decries
for the
National Academy of Sciences
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1990
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National Academy Press. 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. · Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by
the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are
drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors
according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting
of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of
Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
Support for this project was provided by The Business Roundtable, the
Arthur L. Day Fund of the National Academy of Sciences, the Geraldine R.
Dodge Foundation, the Department of Energy, the Environmental Protection
Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation,
the Tinker Foundation, and the U.S. Committee for Man and the Biosphere.
The Rockefeller Foundation contributed to the support of the teleconferenc-
ing.
This book is printed on acid-free recycled paper. W
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Silver, Cheryl Simon.
One earth, one future: our changing global environment / by
Cheryl Simon Silver with Ruth S. DeFries for the National Academy of
~ .
sciences.
p. cm.
ISBN 0-309-04141-4 (case); ISBN 0-309-04632-7 (paper)
1. Man Influence on nature. 2. Pollution. 3. Global warming.
4. Environmental policy. I. DeFries, Ruth S. II. National Academy
of Sciences (U.S.) III. Title.
GF75.S55 1990
363.7~c20 CIP
Copyright (if) 1990 by the National Academy of Sciences
No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic,
or electronic process, or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may
it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted, or otherwise copied for public
or private use, without written permission from the publisher, except for the
purposes of official use by the United States Government.
Printed in the United States of America
90-5939
Cover photograph:
ROUSSEAU, Henri
The Dream. 1910.
Oil on canvas, 6'8 1/2" x 9'9 1/2".
Collection, The Museum of Modern Art,
York New York. Gift of Nelson A. Rockefeller.
Photograph ~ The Museum of Modern Art, New York
First Printing, November 1990
Second Printing,, July 1992
Third Printing, November 1992
Fourth Printing, January 1994
Fifth Printing, January 1996
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Preface
Human activities are transforming the global environment,
and these global changes have many faces: ozone depletion,
tropical deforestation, acid deposition, and increased atmo-
spheric concentrations of gases that trap heat and may warm
the global cInnate. For many of these troubling transformations,
data and analyses are fragmentary, scientific understanding is
incomplete, and long-term implications are unknown. Yet, even
against a continuing background of uncertainty, it is abundantly
clear that human activities burning fossil fuels, emitting pollu-
tants from industry, and clearing forests that are the habitats for
plant and animal species, for exampIc now match or even sur-
pass natural processes as agents of change in the planetary envi-
ronment. Understanding the nature and possible consequences
of global change is an urgent challenge to the natural sciences,
social sciences, ant} engineering, and to the world community
of nations and their citizens.
Global environmental change is interwoven with a com-
plex web of social, economic, political, and scientific implica-
tions. Recent natural fluctuations in weather and climate, while
not necessarily attributable to cInnate change due to human ac
· · -
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1V
PREFACE
tivities, nevertheless illustrate the magnitude and broad scope
of environmental impacts on our intricately intertwined global
economy. Widespread droughts in the early 1970s set the stage
for major worldwide swings in grain prices. Persistent droughts
in Africa have caused unspeakable suffering for millions of peo-
ple. Damage caused as pollutants travel across national bound-
aries and result in acid deposition has created major political
tensions in North America.
The diverse faces of global environmental change are linked
both scientifically and politically. Scientifically, the ability to
predict future changes in the environment requires an under-
standing of the physical, chemical, biological, and social pro-
cesses that govern the earth, and of the interaction of these pro-
cesses throughout the earth system. Politically, policy options
to adclress these problems highlight the need for coordinated
international policies relating to energy, technology, land use,
and economic development.
Thus difficult policy decisions must be made on the basis of
judgments between dunly perceived future risks and possible
economic or other consequences that may be more immediate.
While these decisions must be based on the best Information
that science has to offer, scientists are no better qualified than
other individuals to hammer out these difficult judgments. It is
important that the public also become informed and involved
in making these choices and shaping the necessary policy deci-
s~ons.
It was with a realization of the indispensable role of an in-
formed public that the 1989 Forum on Global Change and Our
Common Future was conceived. The forum's goal was to pro-
mote and enhance understanding and dialogue on a broad range
of issues related to global environmental change and the dy-
namic interactions among the physical, chemical, biological, and
social systems that make the earth's environment so uniquely
hospitable to life. The presentations and discussions during the
eventful three days of the forum provided the stimulus and the
basis for this book.
The forum is but one of many activities related to these
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PREFACE
V
complex issues. For example, in the fall of 1988 the National
Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and
Institute of Medicine prepared recommendations on global en-
vironmental change for then President-elect George Bush. That
document, which may be found in Appendix D, is the cur-
rent position of the Academies and the Institute in this area.
In addition, at the request of Congress, the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency commissioned a study on policy implications
of greenhouse warming by the Committee on Science, Engineer-
ing, and Public Policy of the councils of the two Academies and
the Institute. The report of that panel, which is expected to be
available by the end of 1990, will be the next major statement of
the Academies and Institute in this area. Within this context, this
book is intended as a contribution to the active global dialogue
that will shape the future of our species and our planet.
fry
FRANK PRESS
President
National Academy of Sciences
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetu-
ating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering
research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their
use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to
it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to
advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank
Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under
the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization
of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the
selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the
responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy
of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting na-
tional needs, encourages education and research, and recogruzes the superior
achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National
Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National
Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appro-
priate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the
health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the
National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser
to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of
the Institute of Medicine.
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Acknowledgments
Many people contributed to the development of this book.
First and foremost, the Forum on Global Change and Our Com-
mon Future, on which this book is based, was originally con-
ceived by Harold Mooney of Stanford University, chairman of
the National Research Council's Committee on Global Change
(see Appendix C). Tom Malone, of St. Joseph College, and many
others were instrumental in developing and organizing the fo-
rum. John Perry, of the National Research Council, was particu-
larly crucial in the development of both the forum and this book
and provided helpful guidance along the way.
We gratefully acknowledge the participation of the speakers
at the forum (see Appendix By, whose papers provided the basis
for this book. Informal comments on technical aspects of each
of the chapters of this book were provided by the following
experts in the relevant fields, and we thank them for their time
and thoughtful critiques:
INTRODUCTION William Clark, Harvard University; Robert
Kates, Brown University
· e
V11
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· · -
V111
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
A NEW SCIENCE OF THE EARTH Kevin Burke, Lunar and
Planetary Institute; S. Ichtiaque Rasool, National
Aeronautics and Space Administration; Myron F. Uman,
National Research Council
LESSONS FROM THE GEOLOGIC PAST Kevin Burke, Lunar
and Planetary Institute; John Kutzbach, University of
Wisconsin; S. Ichtiaque Rasool, National Aeronautics and
Space Administration; Myron F. Uman, National Research
Council
SYSTEM INTERACTIONS: ATMOSPHERE, OCEANS, LAND,
AND HUMANS Kevin Burke, Lunar and Planetary
Institute; S. Ichtiaque Rasool, National Aeronautics and
Space Administration; Myron F. Uman, National Research
Council
HUMANITY: AN AGENT OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE Jesse Ausubel, Rockefeller University; William
Clark, Harvard University; Robert Kates, Brown
University; B. L. Turner II, Clark University
GLOBAL WARMING Robert Dickinson, National Center for
Atmospheric Research; Jerry Mahlman, National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration; Stephen H. Schneider,
National Center for Atmospheric Research
FOOD, WATER, AND CHANGING CLIMATE Norman
Rosenberg, Resources for the Future; Cynthia Rosenzweig,
Columbia University
COASTLINES AND RISING SEAS James Broadus, Woods
Hole Oceanographic Institution; Mark Meter, University of
Colorado
THE OZONE LAYER AND ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION
Dan Albritton, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Adm~rustration; F. Sherwood Rowland, University of
California at Irvine; Susan Solomon, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
VANISHING FORESTS AND VANISHING SPECIES Judith
Gradwohl, Smithsonian Institution; Robert Peters, World
Wildlife Fund; Jeffrey Richey, University of Washington
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
ix
LAKES, FORESTS, AND ACID DEPOSITION lames
Galloway, University of Virginia; Mark Haag, Department
of Justice; Arthur Johnson, University of Pennsylvania;
David Schindler, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
Roseanne Price, of the National Research Council, edited
the draft and provided many helpful comments on the content.
We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of all of these
people, without whom this book would not have been possible.
CHERYL SIMON SILVER
RUTH S. DeFRIES
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Contents
1 INTRODUCTION
THE EARTH AS A SYSTEM
A NEW SCIENCE OF THE EARTH
LESSONS FROM THE GEOLOGIC PAST
Formation of the Ozone Shield, 21
Pangaea, 21
The Ice Ages, 24
The Current Warm Phase, 27
SYSTEM INTERACTIONS: ATMOSPHERE, OCEANS,
LAND, AND HUMANS
Atmosphere, 32
Oceans, 37
Land, 40
The Water Cycle, 43
Human Interactions, 45
5 HUMANS: AN AGENTr OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE
Population, Affluence, and Technology: How
Humans Change the Environment, 50
x
1
15
20
31
49
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CONTENTS
Changing He Face of the Earth: Agriculture
and Industry, 56
lithe Future, 59
THE FACES OF
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
6 GLOBAL WARMING
Greenhouse Gases, 64
The Climate's Response to Greenhouse Gases, 67
Do We Know Enough to Act? 76
FOOD, WATER, AND CHANGING CLIMATE
lithe Global Harvest, 79
The Effect of Global Warming on Food
Production, 82
Water Supply, Irrigation, and the Hydrologic
Cycle, 85
Exploring Avenues for Adaptation, 87
8 COASTLINES AND RISING SEAS
The Human Costs of Rising Sea Level, 92
The Plight of the Deltas, 97
Preparing for Rising Seas, 100
9 THE OZONE LAYER AND ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION
Chemistry of the Ozone Layer, 104
Studying the Antarctic Ozone Hole, 107
Ozone Depletion in Other Latitudes, 111
Effects on Life, 113
Nations Joining to Protect the Ozone Layer, 114
10 VANISHING FORESTS AND VANISHING SPECIES
Why Are the Forests Disappearing? 118
Soil Erosion, Rain Machines, and Carbon, 120
Vanishing Species, 123
Protecting the Forest Resources, 130
11 LAKES, FORESTS, AND ACID DEPOSITION
lithe Acidification Process, 133
Lakes, 135
Forests, 138
Buildings and Monuments, 141
Controlling Acid Deposition, 142
X1
63
78
90
116
131
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xii
INDEX
CONTENTS
AFI ERWORD
GLOBAL CHANGE AND OUR COMMON FIJTU~,
by Gro Harlem Brundlland
APPENDIXES
A. Selected Reading
B. Forum on Global Change and Our Common
Future: Agenda and Speakers
Committee on Global Change and
Oversight Committee Members
D. Letter on Global Environmental Change to
President-Elect George Bush from the
National Academy of Sciences,
the National Academy of Engineering,
and the Institute of Medicine
147
161
163
167
169
187
