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OCR for page R1
White Papers
The Unpredictable Certainty
Information Infrastructure Through 2000
NII 2000 Steering Committee
Computer Science and Telecommunications Board
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and
Applications
National Research Council
National Academy Press
Washington, D.C. 1997
Page ii
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was
approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council,
whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. The members of the steering committee responsible for
the report were chosen for their special competences and with
regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors
according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee
consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of
Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit,
self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in
scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare.
Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce
Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a
parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in
its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing
with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for
advising the federal government. The National Academy of
Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting
national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes
the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is
president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the
National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent
members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is
president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National
Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of
science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the
Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering in providing services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is
administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman
and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research
Council.
Support for this project was provided by the National Science
Foundation under Grant No. IRI-9529473. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are
those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of
the National Science Foundation.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-06036-2
Additional copies of this report are available from the Computer
Science and Telecommunications Board, 2101 Constitution Avenue,
N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418; CSTB@NAS.EDU or
http://www2.nas.edu/cstbweb.
Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights
reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
OCR for page R2
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
steering committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard
for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted
to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal
government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy
of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the
responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors
engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and
recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National
Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure
the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters
pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National
Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its
own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is
president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies
determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National
Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government,
the public, and the scientific and engineenug communities. The Council is administered jointly by both
Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and
vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. IRI-
9529473. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those
of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-06036-2
Additional copies of this report are available from the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board,
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418; CSTB@NAS.EDU or
h t t p : / I w w w 2 . n a s . e d u / c s t b w e b .
Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Page iii
NII 2000 Steering Committee
LEWIS M. BRANSCOMB, Harvard University, Chair
CYNTHIA H. BRADDON, The McGraw-Hill Companies
JAMES A. CHIDDIXJAMES A. CHIDDIX, Time Warner Cable
DAVID D. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOSEPH A. FLAHERTY, CBS Incorporated
PAUL E. GREEN, JR., IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
IRENE GREIF, Lotus Development Corporation
RICHARD T. LIEBHABER, MCI Communications (retired)
ROBERT W. LUCKY, Bell Communications Research
LLOYD N. MORRISETT, John and Mary Markle Foundation
DONALD W. SIMBORG, KnowMed Systems
LESLIE L. VADASZ, Intel Corporation
Staff
MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director
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Page iv
Computer Science and
Telecommunications Board
DAVID D. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Chair
FRANCES E. ALLEN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
JAMES CHIDDIX, Time Warner Cable
JEFF DOZIER, University of California at Santa Barbara
A.G. FRASER, AT&T Corporation
SUSAN L. GRAHAM, University of California at Berkeley
JAMES GRAY, Microsoft Corporation
BARBARA J. GROSZ, Harvard University
PATRICK HANRAHAN, Stanford University
JUDITH HEMPEL, University of California at San Francisco
DEBORAH A. JOSEPH, University of Wisconsin
BUTLER W. LAMPSON, Microsoft Corporation
EDWARD D. LAZOWSKA, University of Washington
MICHAEL LESK, Bell Communications Research
DAVID LIDDLE, Interval Research
BARBARA H. LISKOV, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN MAJOR, QUALCOMM Inc.
DAVID G. MESSERSCHMITT, University of California at Berkeley
DONALD NORMAN, Hewlett-Packard Company
RAYMOND OZZIE, Rhythmix Corporation
DONALD SIMBORG, KnowMed Systems Inc.
LESLIE L. VADASZ, Intel Corporation
MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director
HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Staff Officer
JERRY R. SHEEHAN, Program Officer
ALAN S. INOUYE, Program Officer
JON EISENBERG, Program Officer
JANET D. BRISCOE, Administrative Associate
MARK BALKOVICH, Research Associate
SYNOD P. BOYD, Project Assistant
LISA L. SHUM, Project Assistant
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Page v
Commission on Physical Sciences,
Mathematics, and Applications
ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation,
Co-chair
W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-chair
PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan
(ERIM)
WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania
RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University
JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara
MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University
L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America, Inc.
JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University
CAROL M. JANTZEN, Westinghouse Savannah River Company
PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc.
KENNETH H. KELLER, Council on Foreign Relations and the
University of Minnesota
KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory
MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los
Angeles
DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN KREICK, Sanders, A Lockheed Martin Company
MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania
NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory
CHANG-LIN TIEN, University of California at Berkeley
NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director
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Page vii
Preface
This book contains a key component of the NII 2000 project of
the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, a set of white
papers that contributed to and complements the project's final
report, The Unpredictable Certainty: Information Infrastructure
Through 2000, which was published in the spring of 1996. That
report was disseminated widely and was well received by its
sponsors and a variety of audiences in government, industry, and
academia. Constraints on staff time and availability delayed the
publication of these white papers, which offer details on a number
of issues and positions relating to the deployment of information
infrastructure. The remainder of this preface is taken from the
original preface of The Unpredictable Certainty. It provides
more detail on the context in which the white papers were
developed.
In October 1994, at the request of the Technology Policy Working
Group (TPWG) of the Information Infrastructure Task Force, CSTB
convened a steering committee to assess medium-term deployment of
facilities and services to advance the nation's information
infrastructure. The project was designated "NII 2000" by the
steering committee, and its tasks were the following:
•
To reach out to a broad range of industries with a
stake in the future of U.S. information infrastructure—those
industries expected to be major market drivers as well as those
expected to be major service providers—to explore their
expectations and motivations for technology deployment in the next
5 to 7 years;
•
To infer from this exploration the extent to which
there is a shared vision of the importance of common features of
system architecture, such as interoperability or open system
interfaces, and the alternative likelihood that major parts of the
system will develop along proprietary, incompatible lines; and
•
To conclude with suggestions to the U.S.
government on public policy choices that might serve both the
rapid, orderly, and successful development of information
infrastructure and its satisfaction of important public
interests.
To achieve these goals, the steering committee was asked by the
TPWG to undertake a specific series of activities: convene a
workshop of professionals and scholars to discuss and identify key
issues related to technology deployment, call for white papers to
gain further information on these issues, organize a forum to
discuss the white papers and other key ideas, and write a synthesis
report of its findings.
Following the workshop, the steering committee released a call
for white papers on issues related to architecture and facilities,
enabling technologies, recovery of costs, middleware technologies
and capabilities, applications, equitable access and public service
obligations, and research and development. The call was distributed
through various media (the Internet, press advisories, direct mail,
and so on) to producers of communications, computer, and software
systems goods and services; Internet access and other network-based
service providers; scholars specializing in relevant technical,
economic, and public policy research and analysis; and project
liaisons and other representatives of industries and sectors
believed likely to become major users of advanced information
infrastructure (such as the arts, banking and finance, education,
health care, government agencies, libraries, manufacturing, and
transportation). The white papers were
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Page viii
distributed to participants at the spring forum and to
interested federal agencies. Their content, representing a broad
spectrum of views from knowledgeable participants in the evolution
of information infrastructure, was a major component in the
development of the steering committee's report, which quotes from
and refers specifically to several of them.
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Page ix
Contents
The National Information Infrastructure
and the Earth Sciences: Possibilities and Challenges
Mark R. Abbott (Oregon State
University)
1
Government Services Information
Infrastructure Management
Robert J. Aiken and John S. Cavallini
(U.S. Department of Energy)
10
Cutting the Gordian Knot: Providing the
American Public with Advanced Universal Access in a Fully
Competitive Marketplace at the Lowest Possible Cost
Allan J. Arlow (Telecommunications
Consultant, Annapolis, Md.)
18
The Role of Cable Television in the
NII
Wendell Bailey (National Cable
Television Association) and Jim Chiddix (Time Warner Cable)
26
Competing Definitions of "Openness" on the
GII
Jonathan Band (Morrison and Foerster,
Washington, D.C.)
31
Communications for People on the Move: A
Look into the Future
Richard C. Barth (Motorola
Incorporated)
38
Building the NII: Will the Shareholders
Come? (And If They Don't, Will Anyone Really Care?)
Robert T. Blau (BellSouth
Corporation)
44
The Electronic Universe: Network Delivery
of Data, Science, and Discovery
Gregory Bothun (University of Oregon),
Jim Elias (US West Communications), Randolph G.
Foldvik (US West Communications), and Oliver McBryan
(University of Colorado)
57
An SDTV Decoder with HDTV Capability: An
All-Format ATV Decoder
Jill Boyce, John Henderson, and Larry
Pearlstein (Hitachi America Ltd.)
67
NII and Intelligent Transport Systems
Lewis M. Branscomb and Jim Keller
(Harvard University)
76
Post-NSFNET Statistics Collection
Hans-Werner Braun and Kimberly Claffy
(San Diego Supercomputer Center)
85
NII Road Map: Residential Broadband
Charles N. Brownstein (Cross-Industry
Working Team, Corporation for National Research Initiatives)
97
The NII in the Home: A Consumer
Service
Vito Brugliera (Zenith Electronics),
James A. Chiddix (Time Warner Cable), D. Joseph
Donahue (Thomson Consumer Electronics), Joseph A.
Flaherty (CBS Inc.), Richard R. Green (Cable Television
Laboratories), James C. McKinney (ATSC), Richard E.
Ottinger (PBS), and Rupert Stow (Rupert Stow
Associates)
101
Internetwork Infrastructure Requirements
for Virtual Environments
Donald P. Brutzman, Michael R. Macedonia,
and Michael J. Zyda (Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey,
California)
110
Electric Utilities and the NII: Issues and
Opportunities
John S. Cavallini and Mary Anne Scott
(U.S. Department of Energy) and Robert J. Aiken (U.S.
Department of Energy/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
123
Interoperation, Open Interfaces, and
Protocol Architecture
David D. Clark (Massachusetts
Institute of Technology)
133
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Page x
Service Provider Interoperability and the
National Information Infrastructure
Tim Clifford (DynCorp Advanced
Technology Services)
145
Funding the National Information
Infrastructure: Advertising, Subscription, and Usage Charges
Robert W. Crandall (Brookings
Institution)
156
The NII in the Home
D. Joseph Donahue (Thomson Consumer
Electronics)
165
The Evolution of the Analog Set-Top
Terminal to a Digital Interactive Home Communications Terminal
H. Allen Ecker and J. Graham Mobley
(Scientific-Atlanta Inc.)
168
Spread ALOHA Wireless Multiple Access: The
Low-Cost Way for Ubiquitous, Tetherless Access to the Information
Infrastructure
Dennis W. Elliott and Norman Abramson
(ALOHA Networks Inc.)
178
Plans for Ubiquitous Broadband Access to
the National Information Infrastructure in the Ameritech Region
Joel S. Engel (Ameritech)
185
How Do Traditional Legal, Commercial,
Social, and Political Structures, When Confronted with a New
Service, React and Interact?
Maria Farnon (Fletcher School of Law
and Diplomacy, Tufts University)
190
The Internet, the World Wide Web, and Open
Information Services: How to Build the Global Information
Infrastructure
Charles H. Ferguson (Vermeer
Technologies Inc.)
201
Organizing the Issues
Frances Dummer Fisher (University of
Texas at Austin)
205
The Argument for Universal Access to the
Health Care Information Infrastructure: The Particular Needs of
Rural Areas, the Poor, and the Underserved
Richard Friedman and Sean Thomas
(University of Wisconsin)
209
Toward a National Data Network:
Architectural Issues and the Role of Government
David A. Garbin (MITRE
Corporation)
217
Statement on National Information
Infrastructure Issues
Oscar Garcia (for the IEEE Computer
Society)
228
Proposal for an Evaluation of Health Care
Applications on the NII
Joseph Gitlin (Johns Hopkins
University)
233
The Internet—A Model: Thoughts on the
Five-Year Outlook
Ross Glatzer (Prodigy Services
[retired])
237
The Economics of Layered Networks
Jiong Gong and Padmanabhan Srinagesh
(Bell Communications Research Inc.)
241
The Fiber-Optic Challenge of Information
Infrastructures
P.E. Green, Jr. (IBM T.J. Watson
Research Center)
248
Cable Television Technology Deployment
Richard R. Green (Cable Television
Laboratories Inc.)
256
Privacy, Access and Equity, Democracy, and
Networked Interactive Media
Michael D. Greenbaum (Bell Atlantic)
and David Ticoll (Alliance for Converging Technologies)
271
As We May Work: An Approach Toward
Collaboration on the NII
Marjorie Greene (First Washington
Associates)
280
The Use of the Social Security Number as
the Basis for a National Citizen Identifier
W. Ed Hammond (Duke University Medical
Center)
286
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Page xi
Estimating the Costs of Telecommunications
Regulation
Peter W. Huber (Manhattan Institute),
Boban Mathew (Yale University), and John Thorne (Bell
Atlantic)
292
Residential PC Access: Issues with
Bandwidth Availability
Kevin C. Kahn (Intel Corporation)
304
The National Information Infrastructure: A
High-Performance Computing and Communications Perspective
Randy H. Katz (University of
California at Berkeley), William L. Scherlis (Carnegie
Mellon University), and Stephen L. Squires (Advanced
Research Projects Agency)
315
Nomadic Computing and Communications
Leonard Kleinrock (University of
California at Los Angeles)
335
NII 2000: The Wireless Perspective
Mary Madigan (Personal Communications
Industry Association)
342
Small Manufacturing Enterprises and the
National Information Infrastructure
Robert M. Mason, Chester Bowling, and
Robert J. Niemi (Case Western Reserve University)
351
Architecture for an Emergency Lane on the
NII: Crisis Information Management
Lois Clark McCoy and Douglas Gillies
(National Institute for Urban Search and Rescue) and John
Harrald (NIUSR and George Washington University)
364
Aspects of Integrity in the NII
John C. McDonald (MBX Inc.)
374
What the NII Could Be: A User
Perspective
David G. Messerschmitt (University of
California at Berkeley)
378
Role of the PC in Emerging Information
Infrastructures
Avram Miller and Ogden Perry (Intel
Corporation)
388
NII Evolution—Technology Deployment
Plans, Challenges, and Opportunities: AT&T Perspective
Mahal Mohan (AT&T Corporation)
397
Enabling Petabyte Computing
Reagan W. Moore (San Diego
Supercomputer Center)
405
Private Investment and Federal National
Information Infrastructure Policy
Organization for the Protection and
Advancement of Small Telephone Companies (OPASTCO)
412
Thoughts on Security and the NII
Tom Perrine (San Diego Supercomputer
Center)
416
Trends in Deployments of New
Telecommunications Services by Local Exchange Carriers in Support
of an Advanced National Information Infrastructure
Stewart D. Personick (Bell
Communications Research Inc.)
422
The Future NII/GII: Views of Interexchange
Carriers
Robert S. Powers (MCI
Telecommunications Inc.), Tim Clifford (SPRINT, Government
Systems Division), and James M. Smith (Competitive
Telecommunications Association)
434
Technology in the Local Network
J.C. Redmond, C.D. Decker, and W.G.
Griffin (GTE Laboratories Inc.)
447
Recognizing What the NII Is, What It
Needs, and How to Get It
Robert F. Roche (Cellular
Telecommunications Industry Association)
462
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Page xii
Electronic Integrated Product Development
as Enabled by a Global Information Environment: A Requirement for
Success in the Twenty-first Century
Thomas C. Rochow, George E. Scarborough,
and Frank David Utterback (McDonnell Douglas Corporation)
469
Interoperability, Standards, and Security:
Will the NII Be Based on Market Principles?
Quincy Rodgers (General Instrument
Corporation)
479
Technology and Cost Models for Connecting
K-12 Schools to the National Information Infrastructure
Russell I. Rothstein and Lee McKnight
(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
492
Geodata Interoperability: A Key NII
Requirement
David Schell, Lance McKee, and Kurt
Buehler (Open GIS Consortium)
511
Electronic Commerce
Dan Schutzer (Citibank
Corporation)
521
Prospects and Prerequisites for Local
Telecommunications Competition: Public Policy Issues for the
NII
Gail Garfield Schwartz and Paul E.
Cain (Teleport Communications Group)
538
The Awakening 3.0: PCs, TSBs, or
DTMF-TV—Which Telecomputer Architecture Is Right for the Next
Generation's Public Network?
John W. Thompson, Jr. (GNOSTECH
Incorporated)
546
Effective Information Transfer for Health
Care: Quality versus Quantity
Gio Wiederhold (Stanford
University)
553
Integrating Technology with Practice: A
Technology-enhanced, Field-based Teacher Preparation Program
Ronald D. Zellner, Jon Denton, and Luana
Zellner (Texas A&M University)
560
RegNet: An NPR Regulatory Reform
Initiative Toward NII/GII Collaboratories
John P. Ziebarth (National Center for
Supercomputing Applications), W. Neil Thompson (U.S. Nuclear
Regulatory Commission), J.D. Nyhart, Kenneth Kaplan
(Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Bill Ribarsky
(Georgia Institute of Technology), Gio Wiederhold, Michael R.
Genesereth (Stanford University), Kenneth Gilpatric
(National Performance Review NetResults.RegNet and Administrative
Conference of the United States [formerly]), Tim E. Roxey
(National Performance Review RegNet.Industry, Baltimore Gas and
Electric, and Council for Excellence in Government), William J.
Olmstead (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission), Ben Slone
(Finite Matters Ltd.), Jim Acklin (Regulatory Information
Alliance)
576
Electronic Document Interchange and
Distribution Based on the Portable Document Format, an Open
Interchange Format
Stephen N. Zilles and Richard Cohn
(Adobe Systems Incorporated)
605
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While Papers
The Unprediclable Ceriainty
Information Infrastructure
Through 2000
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