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OCR for page R1
The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the
Twenty-First Century
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
National Research Council
National Academy Press
Washington, D.C. 1998
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Page ii
National Academy Press · 2101 Constitution Avenue,
N.W. · Washington, DC 20418
Notice: The project that is the subject of this report was
approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council,
whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the
report were chosen for their special competences and with regard
for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the Department of
Agriculture, the Department of Energy, the Environmental Protection
Agency, the Office of Naval Research of the Department of Defense,
the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation
under Grant No. ATM-9526208. Any opinions, findings, and
conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are
those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of
the above-mentioned agencies.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
The atmospheric sciences: entering the twenty-first century /
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Commission on
Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, National Research Council.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-309-06415-5
1. Atmospheric physics. 2. Atmospheric chemistry. 3. Atmospheric
physics—Research—United States. I. National Research Council
(U.S.). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate.
QC861.2 .A88 1998
551.5—ddc21
98-40083
The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First
Century is available from the National Academy Press. 2101
Constitution Avenue, N.W., Box 285, Washington, DC 20418
(1-800-624-624; http://www.nap.edu).
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights
reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Page iii
Current Board On Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
ERIC J. BARRON, (Co-chair), Pennsylvania
State University, University Park
JAMES R. MAHONEY, (Co-chair),
International Technology Corporation, Washington, D.C.
SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for
Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado,
Boulder
LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New
York, Albany
MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New
York, Stony Brook
DONALD M. HUNTEN, University of Arizona,
Tucson
JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University, Providence,
Rhode Island
CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc.,
Billerica, Massachusetts
THOMAS J. LENNON, Weather Services
International Corp., Billerica, Massachusetts
MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space
Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight
Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and
Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts
Staff
ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer
LOWELL SMITH, Senior Program Officer
DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer
LAURIE GELLER, Staff Officer
PETER SCHULTZ, Staff Officer
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program
Assistant
DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative
Assistant
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Page iv
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate That Prepared This
Report
JOHN A. DUTTON (Chair).
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State
University, University Park
WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of
Technology, Atlanta
CRAIG E. DORMAN, Office of Naval Research,
Arlington, Virginia
FRANCO EINAUDI, Goddard Space Flight
Center, Greenbelt, Maryland
MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New
York, Stony Brook
PETER V. HOBBS, University of Washington,
Seattle
WITOLD F. KRAJEWSKI, The University of
Iowa, Iowa City
MARGARET A. LEMONE, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
DOUGLAS K. LILLY, University of Oklahoma,
Norman
RICHARD S. LINDZEN,* Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge GERALD R. NORTH, Texas A&M University, College
Station
EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of
Maryland, College Park
ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for
Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Staff
DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer and
Study Director
DORIS BOUADJEMI,† Administrative Assistant
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Acting Director
WILLIAM A. SPRIGG,† Director
H. FRANK EDEN, Senior Program Officer
KENT L. GRONINGER,† Senior Program Officer
PETER SCHULTZ, Staff Officer
LAURIE S. GELLER, Staff Officer
ELLEN F. RICE, Reports Officer
TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program
Assistant
KELLY NORSINGLE,† Senior Project Assistant
ANDREW E. EVANS,† Program Summer Intern
* Did not
participate in the preparation of this report.
†
Denotes past staff members who were active during the preparation
of this report.
Page v
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of
America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of
Washington, Seattle
B. JOHN GARRICK, PLG, Inc., Newport Beach,
California
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New
Haven, Connecticut
DEBRA S. KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation,
Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE, Williams College,
Williamstown, Massachusetts
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE, Covington &
Burling, Washington, D.C.
HUGH C. MORRIS, Canadian Global Change
Program, Delta, British Columbia
RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at
Kingston, Ontario
H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia,
Athens
THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of
Maryland, College Park
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and
Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College
Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK, United States Geological
Survey, Menlo Park, California
Staff
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Assistant Executive
Director
JEANETTE A. SPOON, Administrative
Officer
SANDI S. FITZPATRICK, Administrative
Associate
MARQUITA S. SMITH, Administrative
Assistant/Technology Analyst
Page vi
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit,
self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in
scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare.
Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce
M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a
parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in
its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing
with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for
advising the federal government. The National Academy of
Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting
national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes
the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is
president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the
National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent
members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is
president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National
Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of
science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the
Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering in providing services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is
administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman
and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research
Council.
Page vii
PREFACE
The atmospheric sciences have progressed in the twentieth
century from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise
providing considerable benefits to individuals, businesses, and
governments. Through research and applications, the atmospheric
sciences provide information that contributes to protection of life
and property, agriculture, economic and industrial vitality,
management of air quality, battlefield decisions, and national
policies concerning energy and environment.
This report sets forth recommendations intended to strengthen
atmospheric science and services and to enhance benefits to the
nation. It is thus intended for those who share the responsibility
for maintaining the pace of improvement in the atmospheric
sciences, including leaders and policy makers in the public sector,
such as legislators and executives of the relevant federal
agencies; decision makers in the private sector of the atmospheric
sciences; executives of other economic endeavors whose activities
are dependent on atmospheric information, and of course, university
departments that include atmospheric science.
Today the activities of the atmospheric sciences extend from the
search for fundamental understanding to a wide range of specific
applications in weather, climate, air quality, and other
environmental issues. Moreover, the Board on Atmospheric Sciences
and Climate (BASC) believes that new alliances between government,
the private sector, and academe are developing rapidly and will
advance the atmospheric sciences and services. Nevertheless, the
federal government has a key and continuing role in supporting
research to ensure that weather forecasts and warnings will
improve, that uncertainties about a changing climate or air quality
will be reduced, and that future atmospheric impacts and benefits
will be identified early enough to ensure the safety and vitality
of the nation.
This study was supported by the Department of Agriculture, the
Department
Page viii
of Energy, the Department of Defense, the Environmental
Protection Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, and the National Science Foundation. It began with
a poll of leaders in science and engineering to obtain their views
of issues and priorities for the atmospheric sciences.
The Board then requested its continuing committees for
chemistry, solar-terrestrial, and climate research and two ad hoc
teams of experts in atmospheric physics and dynamics/weather
forecasting to assess for BASC the scientific challenges facing
their disciplines, each discipline's contribution to the national
well-being, and the research needed to face the challenges. These
five technical reports, called "Disciplinary Assessments," were
prepared for consideration by BASC. They are published here because
they contain valuable ideas and suggestions that could interest
research workers and federal agencies.
BASC then used the Disciplinary Assessments, together with input
received from a variety of scientific sources as the basis for its
appraisal of the major changes facing the atmospheric sciences as a
whole. Some remarkably consistent themes emerged across the five
Disciplinary Assessments, themes that permitted BASC to develop its
vision of the future for the atmospheric sciences.
Thus, the Board's conclusions and recommendations for
atmospheric sciences and services are a summary and a synthesis of
the Disciplinary Assessments and recommendations and are presented
as Part I of this report. In Part I the Board also points out some
opportunities and challenges that derive from its own broad survey
of the state and future of the atmospheric sciences. Although the
major part of this report focuses on science issues, Part I points
to other key elements of a national agenda for atmospheric sciences
and services.
Part II, "Disciplinary Assessments," contains the five
assessments, each devoted to a major research area within the
atmospheric sciences. These areas and the chairs of the study
groups follow: Atmospheric Physics, William A. Cooper; Chemistry,
William Chameides; Dynamics and Weather Forecasting, Kerry Emanuel;
Upper Atmosphere and Near-Earth Space, Marvin Geller; and Climate
and Climate Change, Eric J. Barron. The Board is indebted to all
who contributed to this study. Their names appear in the
appropriate chapters of Part II. Portions of the Disciplinary
Assessments included in Part II of this report have been abstracted
and used as input to a forthcoming NRC report Global
Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next
Decade.
The Twenty-First Century report has been reviewed by individuals
chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in
accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review
Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide
candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the
NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to
ensure that the report meets institutional standards for
objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The
content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain
confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative
Page ix
process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their
participation in the review of this report:
Bruce Albrecht, University of Miami
Richard A. Anthes, University Corporation
for Atmospheric Research
Eugene W. Bierly, American Geophysical
Union
John S. Chipman. Department of Economics,
University of Minnesota
Ralph J. Cicerone, University of
California, Irvine
Paul J. Crutzen, Max-Planck-Institut
für Chemie
Richard M. Goody, Jet Propulsion
Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Thomas E. Graedel, Yale University
John Hallet, Desert Research Institute
Dennis L. Hartmann, University of
Washington
D.A. Henderson, School of Hygiene and
Public Health, Johns Hopkins University
James R. Holton, University of
Washington
Donald Hornig, Harvard School of Public
Health (emeritus)
Donald R. Johnson, University of
Wisconsin
Richard S. Lindzen, Massachusetts
Institute of Technology
Syukuro Manabe, Institute for Global
Change Research Program, Tokyo. Japan
Marcia M. Neugebauer, Jet Propulsion
Laboratory. California Institute of Technology
Edward S. Sarachik, University of
Washington
Joanne Simpson, Goddard Space Flight
Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
George Siscoe, retired
Robert M. White, President, Washington
Advisory Group
Although the individuals listed above have provided many
constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final
content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee
and the NRC.
The Board and I are grateful to David H. Slade, Senior Program
Officer and Study Director, whose acumen and energy contributed
much to the organization and writing of this report, and to Doris
Bouadjemi, Administrative Assistant, who directed its publication
with skill and dedication. The Board and I are also grateful to
William A. Sprigg. former director of BASC, whose energy.
dedication and innovation contributed much to the work of the Board
and to its achievements in recent years.
JOHN A. DUTTON
CHAIR
Page xi
CONTENTS
Summary
1
Part I
1
Introduction
13
Four Centuries of Progress
14
The Atmospheric Sciences and Other
Disciplines
14
Looking Forward to the Twenty-First
Century
15
2
Contributions of the Atmospheric Sciences to the National
Well-Being
17
Protection of Life and Property
17
Need for Forecasts and
Warnings
18
Progress in Weather Services
21
Maintaining Environmental Quality
22
Chlorofluorocarbons and Ozone
22
Greenhouse Gases and Global
Change
22
Aerosols
23
Role of Atmospheric Sciences in
Environmental Issues
23
Enhancing National Economic
Vitality
24
Benefits of Weather and Climate
Information
24
Strengthening Fundamental
Understanding
26
Page xii
3
Scientific Imperatives and Recommendations For the Decades
Ahead
28
Atmospheric Science Imperative 1:
Optimize and Integrate Observation Capabilities
29
New Observing Opportunities
30
Requirements for Optimizing and
Integrating Observing Systems
31
Observing System Simulation
Experiments
33
Atmospheric Science Imperative 2:
Develop New Observation Capabilities
33
Water in the Atmosphere
34
Wind Observations
35
Observations in the
Stratosphere
36
Observations in Near-Earth
Space
37
Atmospheric Research Recommendation
1: Resolve Interactions at Atmospheric Boundaries and Among
Different Scales of Flow
37
Surface Properties
38
Long-Term Interactios with the
Oceans
38
Clouds and Their Consequences
39
Aerosols and Atmospheric
Chemistry
40
The Fundamental Problem of
Nonlinearity
40
Atmospheric Research Recommendation
2: Extend a Disciplined Forecast Process to New Areas
41
Atmospheric Research Recommendation
3: Initiate Studies of Emerging Issues
43
Climate, Weather and Health
44
Water Resources
44
Rapidly Increasing Emissions to
the Atmosphere
45
4
Leadership and Management Challenges in the Decades Ahead
46
Leadership and Management
Recommendation 1: Develop a Strategy for Providing Atmospheric
Information
46
A Changing System for Providing
Weather Services
47
Prospects for Atmospheric
Information
48
Implications of Distributed
Atmospheric Information Services
49
Leadership and Management
Recommendation 2: Ensure Access to Atmospheric Information
50
Leadership and Management
Recommendation 3: Assess Benefits and Costs
51
Federal Funding of Atmospheric
Research and Services
52
Leadership and Management
Planning
58
Page xiii
Part II
Disciplinary Assessmets
1
Atmospheric Physics Research Entering the Twenty-First Century
63
Summary
63
Major Scientific Goals and
Challenges
63
Key Components of the Scientific
Strategy
64
Initiatives to Support the
Strategies
65
Expected Benefits and
Contributions to the National Well-Being
65
Recommended Atmospheric Physics
Research
66
Introduction
68
Mission
68
Major Research Themes and Past
Accomplishments
69
Perspective for the Future
70
Scientific Challenges and
Questions
71
Atmospheric Radiation
71
Cloud Physics
74
Atmospheric Electricity
77
Boundary Layer Meteorology
79
Small-Scale Atmospheric
Dynamics
81
Disciplinary Research Challenges
83
Contributions to National Goals
106
2
Atmospheric Chemistry Research Entering the Twenty-First
Century
107
Summary
107
Major Scientific Questions and
Challenge
108
Overarching Research
Challenges
109
Disciplinary Research
Challenges
110
Infrastructural Initiatives
110
Expected Benefits and
Contribution to the National Well-Being
111
Introduction and Overview
111
The Mission
112
Insights of the Twentieth
Century
114
Disciplinary Research
Challenges
121
Overarching Research
Challenges
132
Infrastructural Initiatives
135
Conclusion
140
The Environmentally Important
Atmospheric Species: Scientific Questions and Research
Strategies
140
Page xiv
Stratospheric Ozone
140
Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases
147
Photochemical Oxidants
157
Atmospheric Aerosols
162
Toxics and Nutrient
166
3
Atmospheric Dynamics and Weather Forecasting Research Entering the
Twenty-First Century
169
Summary
169
Emerging Research
Opportunities
170
Key Recommendations
173
Introduction
175
Basic Research Foci
175
Technique Developments
187
Technological Developments
193
Conclusion
197
4
Upper Atmospheric and Near-Earth Space Research Entering the
Twenty-First Century
199
Summary
199
Major Scientific Goals and
Challenges
200
Key Components of the Scientific
Strategy
200
Scientific Requirements for the
Coming Decade(s)
200
Expected Benefits and
Contributions to the National Well-Being
202
Upper-Atmosphere and Near-Earth
Space Research Tasks
202
Introduction
204
The Sun
204
Interplanetary Space
204
The Magnetosphere
205
The Ionosphere-Upper
Atmosphere
206
The Middle Atmosphere
206
Cosmic Rays
208
Research Priorities
208
Stratospheric Processes Important for
Climate and the Biosphere
211
Stratospheric Ozone
213
Volcanic Effects
218
Solar Effects
219
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Effects
220
Atmospheric Effects of
Aircraft
220
The Role of the Stratosphere in
Climate and Weather Prediction
223
Page xv
Key Initatives
223
Measures of Success
225
Space Weather
225
Scientific Background
228
Critical Science Questions
237
History and Current Research
Activities
241
Key Initiatives
242
Middle-Upper Atmosphere Global
Change
245
Scientific Background
245
Critical Science Questions
249
Key Initiatives
250
Contributions to the Solution of
Societal Problems
254
Measures of Success
255
Solar Influences
256
Solar Energy Output over a Solar
Cycle
257
Separating Solar and
Anthropogenic Effects
259
Solar Influences on the Earth's
Upper and Middle Atmosphere
263
Physical Basis of the Solar
Activity Cycle
265
Long-Term Changes in Solar
Behavior: Solar-Type Stars
268
Key Initiatives
270
Contributions to the Solution of
Societal Problems
271
5
Climate and Climate Change Research Entering the Twenty-First
Century
272
Summary
272
Introduction
276
Mission Statement
278
Perspectives for the Twenty-First
Century
279
Insights of the Twentieth
Century
279
The Scientific Questions
296
Key Drivers for Research in the
Twenty-First Century
297
Objectives and Requirements for
Climate Research
302
Objective 1
302
Objective 2
307
Objective 3
309
Objective 4
310
Objective 5
311
Objective 6
314
Objective 7
316
Priorities for Climate Research
318
Build a Permanent Climate
Observing System
319
Extend the Instrumented Climate
Record Through Development of Integrated Historical and Proxy Data
Sets
320
Page xvi
Continue and Expand Diagnostic
Efforts and Process Study Research to Elucidate Key Climate
Variability and Change Processes
320
Construct and Evaluate Climate
Models That Are Increasingly Comprehensive, Incorporating All Major
Components of the Climate System
321
Cross-Cutting Requirements
322
Education
322
Institutional
Arrangements
323
Contributions to National Goals
and Needs
324
References
325
Appendix A
Acronyms and Abbreviations
341
Appendix B
Listing of Reports by the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences and the
Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Since 1958
346
Index
349
Tine At~spLe~c Sciences
Entering iLe Twenty~t Century
