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OCR for page R1
Fostering Research on the
Economic and Social Impacts
of Information Technology
Report Of A Workshop
Steering Committee on Research Opportunities Relating to
Economic and
Social Impacts of Computing and Communications
Computer Science and Telecommunications Board
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and
Applications
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1998
OCR for page R2
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS · 2101 Constitution Avenue,
N.W. · Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was
approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council,
whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. The members of the workshop steering committee
responsible for the report were chosen for their special
competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Grant No. SRS-95285584 between the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation.
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed
in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not
necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that
provided support for this project.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 98-86542
International Standard Book Number 0-309-06032-X
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Ave., NW
Box 285
Washington, DC 20055
800-624-6242
202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area)
http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 1998 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights
reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
OCR for page R3
Page iii
STEERING COMMITTEE ON RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
RELATING TO ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF
COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATIONS
HAL VARIAN, University of California at Berkeley,
Chair
FRANCES ALLEN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
ERIK BRYNJOLFSSON, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JORGE SCHEMENT, Pennsylvania State University
SCOTT SHENKER, Xerox Palo Alto Research Center
LEE SPROULL, Boston University
RICHARD SUTCH, University of California at Berkeley
Staff
MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director
JANE BORTNICK GRIFFITH, Interim Director
PAUL SEMENZA, Program Officer (through July 1997)
JON EISENBERG, Program Officer
JULIE C. LEE, Administrative Assistant (through August 1997)
MICKELLE RODGERS, Project Assistant
RITA GASKINS, Project Assistant
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Page iv
COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD
DAVID D. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Chair
FRANCES E. ALLEN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
JAMES CHIDDIX, Time Warner Cable
JEFF DOZIER, University of California at Santa Barbara
A.G. FRASER, AT&T Corporation
SUSAN L. GRAHAM, University of California at Berkeley
JAMES GRAY, Microsoft Corporation
BARBARA J. GROSZ, Harvard University
PATRICK M. HANRAHAN, Stanford University
JUDITH HEMPEL, University of California at San Francisco
DEBORAH A. JOSEPH, University of Wisconsin
BUTLER W. LAMPSON, Microsoft Corporation
EDWARD D. LAZOWSKA, University of Washington
DAVID LIDDLE, Interval Research
BARBARA H. LISKOV, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN MAJOR, QUALCOMM, Inc.
DAVID G. MESSERSCHMITT, University of California at Berkeley
DONALD NORMAN, Hewlett-Packard Company
RAYMOND OZZIE, Iris Associates, Inc.
DONALD SIMBORG, KnowMed Systems
LESLIE L. VADASZ, Intel Corporation
MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director
JANE BORTNICK GRIFFITH, Interim Director (1998)
HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Staff Officer
JERRY R. SHEEHAN, Program Officer
ALAN S. INOUYE, Program Officer
JON EISENBERG, Program Officer
JANET BRISCOE, Administrative Associate
LISA L. SHUM, Project Assistant
MICKELLE RODGERS, Project Assistant
NICCI DOWD, Project Assistant
RITA GASKINS, Project Assistant
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Page v
COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS,
AND APPLICATIONS
ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation,
Co-chair
W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-chair
PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan
WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania
RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University
JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara
MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University
L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America, Inc.
JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University
CAROL M. JANTZEN, Westinghouse Savannah River Company
PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc.
KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota
KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory
MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los
Angeles
DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company
MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania
NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory
CHANG-LIN TIEN, University of California at Berkeley
NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director
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Page vi
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit,
self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in
scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare.
Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in
1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce
Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a
parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in
its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing
with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for
advising the federal government. The National Academy of
Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting
national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes
the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is
president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the
National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent
members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences
by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of
medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is
president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National
Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of
science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in
accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the
Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of
Engineering in providing services to the government, the public,
and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is
administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman
and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research
Council.
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Page vii
Preface
To aid in identifying fruitful approaches to assessment of both
the positive and negative impacts of using information
technologies, the National Science Foundation asked the Computer
Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB) of the National
Research Council (NRC) to gather perspectives on the problem from
experts in several relevant disciplines—in particular,
economics, sociology, psychology, and anthropology, as well as
computer science and engineering. It was thought that a sharing of
ideas among individuals with pertinent experience as well as
openness to the benefits of interdisciplinary analysis might
suggest new ways of addressing what has proved so far to be a
complex and difficult undertaking—assessing the diverse
outcomes in a variety of contexts of the growing use of computing
and communications technology. The results of this exploration are
intended to be useful to the National Science Foundation in its
efforts to assess the impacts of computing and communications
technology, to provide examples of successful research and pose
interesting questions to the research community, and to inform
policy makers about the nature and utility of such research.
The context for this project included recent legislation and
administration efforts (e.g., enactment of the Government
Performance and Results Act, establishment of the Federal
Accounting Standards Advisory Board) as well as ongoing oversight
activities aimed at assessing the outcomes and impacts of federal
programs, including research and development programs. It also
included the National Science Board's interest in expanding the
body of science and technology indicators to include those relating
to impacts on the economy and society of information technology's
use.
In addition, as a result of reductions in federal regulation or
elimination of federal programs, a number of conventional federal
sources of data have disappeared
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Page viii
(e.g., data on telecommunications from the Federal
Communications Commission, data on early Internet use from the
National Science Foundation in connection with its operation of the
former NSFNET). One result has been to focus more attention on what
can and cannot be measured and on how different disciplines can
contribute to better public understanding of the linkages among
research and development, computing and communications science and
technology, and the larger economy and society.
CSTB formed the multidisciplinary Steering Committee on Research
Opportunities Relating to Economic and Social Impacts of Computing
and Communications, which met in February 1997 to organize a
workshop held on June 30 and July 1, 1997 (Appendix A gives the
agenda and lists participants). The steering committee sought to
identify topics amenable to research, especially interdisciplinary
efforts calling for collaboration involving computer scientists,
economists, and others. The workshop featured discussion of
specific kinds of impacts along with examination of methodological
issues, availability of valid data for research, and approaches
relevant to assessing the outcomes of information technology's
use.
An objective of the workshop was to identify and stimulate
thinking about potential research topics, as well as to obtain
perspectives on how to develop a more systematic understanding of
outcomes important to public policy making. To this end, workshop
participants considered possible gaps in knowledge, open research
questions, areas where quantitative and qualitative data as well as
new methodology are needed, and areas that appear to experts to be
well covered. The workshop was also designed to illuminate how and
where new research interest could be stimulated in a range of
disciplines. In addition, the steering committee explored how to
promote and support such interdisciplinary research.
To broaden the base of common understanding among the
multidisciplinary participants in the workshop, the steering
committee requested position papers from participants (Appendix B
includes a selection of these papers) and also commissioned two
background papers (presented in Appendix C). These papers
contributed to discussions at the workshop and to the steering
committee's efforts to synthesize workshop participants'
observations on key impact areas and associated analytical
challenges. In addition to meeting physically, the steering
committee shared information by electronic mail and through a
special World Wide Web site, which it used to develop workshop and
report materials.
Given the broad nature of the task addressed by the workshop,
and in keeping with the activity's limited budget and time frame,
the steering committee adopted the approach of selecting and
developing for presentation in its report a set of important and
instructive examples compiled from the research topics, issues, and
research approaches discussed at the workshop, as well as in
submitted position papers. The resulting workshop report thus
presents examples of important topics and fruitful approaches
within several branches of social science rather than attempting to
be comprehensive in considering the full range of possible topics.
In the report, the fields of anthropology, demography, education,
and
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Page ix
political science are underrepresented, and the text has little
to say about library science, bibliometrics, or information
science. Omission of a number of interesting or significant topics
reflects the exploratory nature of the project rather than a value
judgment on the part of the steering committee. The topics of the
creation and growth of the computer industry itself, among the most
obvious of the economic and social impacts of computing and
telecommunications, have been excluded here because they merit a
report in their own right.
The bibliography suggests further reading that provides broad
coverage of many of the issues touched on in this workshop report.
Many of the references, including a number of review articles, are
themselves replete with pointers to other work. Where possible the
report includes references to significant Web sites addressing the
impacts of computing and communications.
The workshop steering committee is grateful to Eileen Collins,
who originated the idea of an interdisciplinary exploration of the
impacts of computing and communications, and Les Gasser, both of
the National Science Foundation (NSF), for their support of the
project and for ongoing guidance. Their commitment to the
importance of interdisciplinary interaction was fundamental to the
design of the workshop. Funding for the report came from both the
NSF Division of Science Resources Studies and the NSF Division of
Information and Intelligent Systems.
The workshop steering committee acknowledges the contributions
of the workshop participants, both through papers written as part
of workshop activities and during discussions at the workshop
itself. The steering committee also wishes to thank the NRC staff
for their assistance with the workshop and the preparation of the
final report, including Marjory Blumenthal, Paul Semenza, Jon
Eisenberg, Julie C. Lee, Mickelle Rodgers, and Rita Gaskins.
Finally, the steering committee is grateful to the reviewers for
helping to sharpen and improve the report through their comments.
Responsibility for the report remains with the workshop steering
committee.
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Page xi
Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with
procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's)
Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is
to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the
authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as
possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional
standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the
study charge. The contents of the review comments and draft
manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the
deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals
for their participation in the review of this report:
Robert McC. Adams, University of California at San Diego,
Michael Arbib, University of Southern California,
Anita Borg, Xerox Palo Alto Research Center,
Yale Braunstein, University of California at Berkeley,
John S. Chipman, University of Minnesota,
David Farber, University of Pennsylvania,
Irene Greif, Lotus Development Corporation,
Donna Hoffman, Vanderbilt University,
Heather Hudson, University of San Francisco,
James Morris, Carnegie Mellon University,
Milton Mueller, Rutgers University,
Jean-Michael Rendu, Newmont Mining Corporation,
Henry W. Riecken, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine
(emeritus),
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Page xii
Peter Temin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Timothy Van Zandt, Princeton University, and
Terry Winograd, Stanford University.
Although the individuals listed above provided many constructive
comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of
this report rests solely with the workshop steering committee and
the NRC.
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Page xiii
Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
1
INTRODUCTION
7
1.1 Growth Trends
9
1.1.1 Computing Power
9
1.1.2 Demographics of Computer
Ownership
10
1.1.3 Internet Use
12
1.1.4 Global Connectivity
13
1.2 Some Major Challenges
14
1.2.1 Productivity and
Organizational Change
14
1.2.2 Information Technology and
Wage Inequality
16
1.2.3 Design of Technology and
Standards Setting
16
1.3 Role of Social Science
18
2
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES AND UNANSWERED
QUESTIONS
21
2.1 Households and Community
21
2.1.1 Computer Use in the
Home
22
2.1.2 Differential Impacts of
Technology
24
2.1.3 Community
24
2.1.4 Education
26
2.2 Social Infrastructure: Universal
Service
29
2.3 Business, Labor, and
Organizational Processes
32
2.3.1 Location:
Internationalization and Telecommuting
32
2.3.2 Labor and Information
Technology
35
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Page xiv
2.3.3 Organizations and
Processes
39
2.3.4 Social Science and the
Workplace
46
2.4 Information Economy and
Society
48
2.4.1 Protection of Intellectual
Property
48
2.4.2 Free Speech and Content
52
2.4.3 Privacy
53
2.4.4 Information Use and
Value
56
2.4.5 Pricing Models and
Content
60
2.4.6 Pricing Information
61
2.4.7 Network Externalities
65
2.4.8 Auctions
66
2.4.9 Electronic Commerce
67
2.5 Illustrative Broad Topics for
Ongoing Research
72
3
DATA—THE BASIS FOR NEW KNOWLEDGE
78
3.1 Types and Uses of Data
78
3.1.1 Data from Experiments
79
3.1.2 Panel Data
81
3.1.3 Data from Time-Use
Studies
82
3.1.4 Metadata
83
3.2 Availability of and Access to
Data
84
3.2.1 Data Collected by the
Private Sector
85
3.2.2 The Need for Firm-level
Data
86
3.2.3 Data Collected by
Government
88
3.3 New Types of Data
89
3.3.1 Documenting the Effects of
Technology Deployment
89
3.3.2 Data on Social Interactions
from the Internet
92
3.3.3 The Internet as a Window
into How Commercial Transactions Are Conducted
93
3.4 Time and Tools for Gathering and
Interpreting Data
93
3.4.1 The Time Required to Do
Good Social Science
93
3.4.2 Appropriate Subject Pools
and Instrumentation
95
3.5 Approaches to Meeting
Requirements for Data
95
4
OPTIONS FOR FOSTERING INTERDISCIPLINARY
RESEARCH AND IMPROVING ACCESS TO RESULTS
101
4.1 Encouraging Interdisciplinary
Studies and Collaboration
102
4.2 Funding to Strengthen
Interdisciplinary Research
103
4.3 Making the Results of
Interdisciplinary Research More Accessible
105
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Page xv
BIBLIOGRAPHY
106
APPENDIXES
A
WORKSHOP AGENDA AND PARTICIPANTS
127
B
POSITION PAPERS SUBMITTED BY WORKSHOP
PARTICIPANTS
131
Research on Information
Technology Impacts
Paul Attewell (Graduate School and
University Center, City University of New York),
133
What If All Information Were
Readily Available to All?
Joseph Farrell (Department of Economics,
University of California, Berkeley ),
138
Critical Issues Relating to
Impacts of Information Technology: Areas for Future Research and
Discussion
Alexander J. Field (Santa Clara
University),
139
Computer-mediated
Communications
Claude S. Fischer (Department of
Sociology, University of California, Berkeley ),
142
Impacts of Information
Technology: Behaviors and Metrics
Amy Friedlander (Corporation for National
Research Initiatives),
144
Five Critical Issues Relating to
Impacts of Information Technology
Michael Froomkin (School of Law,
University of Miami),
147
Cultural Influences on the
Process and Impacts of Computerization
Rob Kling (Center for Social In formatics,
Indiana University ),
150
Questions for Research
Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason (Department of
Economics, and School of Information, University of
Michigan),
152
Electronic Interactions
Paul Resnick (AT&T
Laboratories),
156
Social Impact of Information
Technology
Frank Stafford (University of
Michigan),
158
The Uncalming Effects of Digital
Technology
Mark Weiser ( Xerox Palo Alto Research
Center ),
160
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Page xvi
C
COMMISSIONED PAPERS
Infrastructure: The Utility of
Past As Prologue?
Amy Friedlander (Corporation for National
Research Initiatives, Reston, Virginia),
165
Computer And Communication
Technologies: Impacts on the Organization of Enterprise and the
Establishment and Maintenance of Civil Society
John Leslie King and Kenneth L. Kraemer
(University of California, Irvine),
188
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