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OCR for page R1
COMMITTEE ON
POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY
Report No. 27
Rapid Population Change
in China, 1952-1982
Ansley J. Coale
Committee on Population and
Demography
Commission on Behavioral and
Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1984
OCR for page R2
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report
was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the
councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of
Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for
the report were chosen for their special competences and
with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than
the authors according to procedures approved by a Report
Review Committee consisting- of members of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering,
and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the
National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the
broad coT'ununity of science and technology with the
Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of
advising the federal goverrunent. The Council operates in
accordance with general policies determined by the
Academy under the authority of its congressional charter
of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private,
nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The
Council has become the principal operating agency of both
the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy
of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and
engineering communities. It is administered jointly by
both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The
National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of
Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences.
Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 84-61188
International Standard Book Number 0-309-03480-9
Available from
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
Printed in the United States of America
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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY
ANSLEY J. COALE (Chair), Office of Population Research
Princeton University
WILLIAM BRASS, Centre for Population Studies, London
School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
LEE-JAY CHO, East-West Population Institute, East-West
Center, Honolulu
RONALD FREEDMAN, Population Studies Center, University
of Michigan
NATHAN KEYFITZ, Department of Sociology, Harvard
University
LESLIE KISH, Institute for Social Research, University
of Michigan
W. PARKER MAULDIN, Population Division, The Rockefeller
Foundation
JANE MENKEN, Office of Population Research, Princeton
University
SAMUEL PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of
Pennsylvania
WILLIAM SELTZER, Statistical Office, United Nations
CONRAD TAEUBER, Kennedy Institute, Center for Population
Research, Georgetown University
ETIENNE VAN DE WALLE, Population Studies Center,
University of Pennsylvania
ROBERT J. LAPHAM, Study Director
Note: Members of the Committee and its panel and
working groups participated in this project in their
individual capacities; the listing of their organizational
affiliation is for identification purposes only, and the
views and designations used in this report are not
necessarily those of the organizations mentioned.
· . —
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CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF FIGURES
PREFACE
SUMMARY
1 INTRODUCTION
Scope of the Report, 8
Background, 9
2 SOURCES AND QUALITY OF DATA
Data Sources, 12
Census and Fertility Survey Data, 12
Independence of the Data Sources, 13
Characteristics of the 1982 Census and
Fertility Survey, 15
Quality of Data, 18
Data by Single Years of Age, 18
Abnormal Ratios of Men to Women in Census and
Survey Data, 21
Official Data on Births and Deaths, 27
Data on Children and Marriage, 31
Quality of Data: Summary, 37
v
· ~
V11
ix
X1
1
8
12
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3 MARRIAGE IN CHINA SINCE 1950
Proportion Ever-Married Women and the
First-Marriage Rate, 39
Mean Age at First Marriage, 41
Patterns of Marriage, 42
4 CHILDBEARING IN CHINA SINCE 1950
Total Fertility Rates, 46
The Effect of Changes in Nuptiality on the
Rate of Childbearing, 48
Age Patterns of Marital Fertility, 54
Differential Fertility, 58
Urban/Rural Differences, S8
Han and Minority Group Differences, 62
Other Fertility Determinants, 62
Contraceptive Practice in China, 62
5 MORTALITY IN CHINA
Methods, 64
Life Tables, 66
Crude Death Rates, 66
Variation Over Time, 70
6 CONCLUSIONS
NOTES
APPENDIX: DATA TABLES
REFERENCES
vi
39
46
64
71
73
75
87
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LIST OF TABLES
1 Annual Number of Births (in millions) from
Official Figures and as Calculated from
Fertility Rates in Survey and Interpolated
Populations, and Estimated Completenes of
Reporting, 1953-82
2 Total Number of Children Ever Born to Women
Classified in Five-Year Age Intervals, 1982
3 Estimated Fiscal Year Births, 1951-52 to 1981-82,
Number Recorded in Corresponding Cohort in 1982,
and Proportion Surviving
4 Proportion of Children Surviving Among Children
Ever Born Alive to Women Aged 15-19 to 50-54,
1982
Birth Rate and Total Fertility Rate Derived from
Fertility Survey
Total Fertility Rate Calculated for Selected
Years, from Proportion of Women Ever Married and
Age-Specific Marital Fertility Rates, 1956
7 Annual Births (in millions), Total Fertility
Rate, 1970-82
8 Total Fertility Rates, Rural and Urban
Populations, 19 50-81
Abridged Life Tables, Male and Female, 1953-64
and 1964-82
10 Crude Death Rates (per 1,000), 1953-81
A-1 Calculated Number of Women by Single Years of
Age, Aged 15-49 for Each Year, Estimated by
Cohort Interpolation (in 100s), 1953-82
A-2 Population by Sex and Single Years of Age, 1953,
1964, and 1982 (after adjustment)
· —
V11
28
35
36
47
51
53
59
67
69
76
78
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A-3 Proportion of Children Born Alive Who Were Born
in Specified Years, by Age of Mother, 1982
A-4 Proportion of Ever-Married Women (per 1,000 women)
by Single Years of Age, Aged 15-35, Constructed
from First Marriage Rates, 1950-81, and Reported
in the Sample Survey, 1982
A-5 Number of Ever-Married Women (in loos) by
Duration Since First Marriage, 1970-82
A-6 Number of Births and Marital Fertility Rate at
Each Duration of Marriage, 1970, 1977, and 1981
viii
81
82
84
85
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LIST OF FIGURES
2
3
4
9
13
17
1 Total Fertility Rates for Urban and Rural Areas
and for China, 1952-82
Age Pyramid of the Population, 1982
Death Rates (per 1,000) from Recorded Deaths and
Adjusted for Underreporting, 1953-82
Proportion of Females Surviving Between
Successive Censuses for Each Age
Number of Persons Under Age 30 in 1982 and Number
of Persons Under Age 11 in 1964 (in millions) by
Single Years of Age, as Projected and Enumerated
in the Census
6 Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) by Single Years
of Age, 1953, 1964, and 1982
Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) by Year of
Birth for Censuses of 1953, 1964, and 1982
8 Completeness of Recording of Births, 1953-81
Total Female First-Marriage Rate (sum of first
marriage frequencies), 1950-82
10 Mean Age at First Marriage of Females, 1950-82
11 Proportion of Ever-Married Women, by Single Years
of Age, Cohorts Aged 15 in 1950, 1960, 1965, 1970,
and 1973
12 Proportion of Ever-Married Women, Cohorts Aged 15
in 1950, 1960, 1965, 1970, and 1973 and Standard
Curves Fitted to Ages 16.5 and 20.5
Ratio of Age-Specific Marital Fertility to Natural
Fertility, 1956, 1961, 1970, 1975, and 1980
Total Fertility Rates, Rural and Urban
Populations, 1950-81
Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Rural and Urban
Populations, 1955, 1968, and 1980
16 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Ethnic Minority
Women and Rural Han Women, 1981
Age-Specific Mortality Rates, Females, 1953-64,
1964-82, 1973-75, and 1978
ix
6
7
19
22
23
24
29
40
42
43
44
56
60
61
63
68
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PREFACE
This report, using analyses of recently available census
and survey data on the population of China, presents the
demographic history of China during the past 30 years.
The report uses detailed assessments of data from a major
1982 fertility survey and the 1982 census of China, which
became available at the end of 1983, to develop estimates
of three major population processes for 1952-82:
fertility, nuptiality, and mortality.
With the rapid expansion in world population in recent
decades, fertility and its determinants have been urgent
topics for research. Attempts to affect population
growth have focused on reducing fertility, with some
apparent effect. The peak rate of growth in the world's
population has now passed although growth is still at a
high level in almost all the developing countries. In
absolute numbers, the increase in the world's population
continues to rise: according to United Nations medium
projections, more people will be added each year for the
next 35-40 years than were added in 1980. In this
context, China's recent rapid declines in fertility and
mortality are remarkable; moreover, China's decline in
fertility has contributed substantially to the modest
reduction in the world rate of population growth.
This report on China is number 27 in a series of
reports prepared by the Committee on Population and
Demography and its several panels. (A complete list of
these reports is printed on the inside back cover.) The
committee was established in 1977 by the Commission on
Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of the
National Research Council (NRC). Funded for a period of
5-1/2 years by the Agency for International Development
(AID), the committee undertook three major tasks:
xi
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1. To evaluate available evidence and prepare
estimates of levels and trends of fertility
and mortality in selected developing nations;
To improve the technologies for estimating
fertility and mortality when only incomplete
or inadequate data exist (including techniques
of data collection); and
3. To evaluate the factors determining the
changes in birth rates in less developed
nations.
About half of the reports resulting from these tasks are
concerned with demographic estimates in less-developed
countries and with methodology and the other half are
concerned with the determinants of fertility.
In its early deliberations about which countries to
include in its work, the committee did not select China
for several reasons, primarily the nonavailability of an
adequate data base for a scientific assessment of
fertility and mortality trends. At that time, it was not
foreseen that it would be possible later on to prepare a
comprehensive report on the demography of China. However
the committee was interested in China, and, with cospon-
sorship by the NRC's Committee on Scholarly Communication
with the People's Republic of China and modest support
from the U.S. Department of State, a workshop on popula-
tion research in China was held at the National Academy
of Sciences in October 1980; the proceedings were
published by the National Academy Press in 1981.
This report on China has been made possible by a grant
from The Rockefeller Foundation and with support from the
NRC Fund.*
*The National Research Council (NRC, Fund is a pool of
private, discretionary, non-federal funds that is used to
support a program of Academy-initiated studies of
national issues in which science and technology figure
significantly. The NRC Fund consists of contributions
from: a consortium of private foundations including the
Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Charles E. Culpeper
Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the
John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Andrew
W. Mellon Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; the Academy Industry Program,
xii
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The committee and the National Research Council wish
to thank Ansley J. Coale for preparing this report, and
indeed for doing so within such a short period of time.
Sincere thanks are also extended to the reviewers who
both read the report on short notice and attended a
review meeting in Washington in April 1984. Several
other individuals assisted in the production of this
report. Marleen Stern and Kathryn Reynolds typed the
draft and tables in Princeton, and Barbara Vaughan
assisted with computer tabulations. At the NRC, Lucy
Santiago typed the camera-ready copy of text and tables,
Eugenia Grohman edited the report, and Elaine McGarraugh
handled all of the production editing details. The
committee extends its gratitude to these individuals for
their contributions to the report.
Finally, this is a fitting occasion to thank Ansley J.
Coale for his leadership of the Committee on Population
and Demography and his many contributions to its
products. The committee's extensive accomplishments owe
much to those contributions and especially to his
effectiveness as committee chair.
Robert J. Lapham, Study Director
Committee on Population and Demography
which seeks annual contributions from companies that are
concerned with the health of U.S. science and technology
and with public policy issues with technological content;
and the National Academy of Sciences and the National
Academy of Engineering endowments.
· · ~
x'
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