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Series on Technology
and Social Priorities
NATIONAL ACADEMY
OF ENGINEERING
~- r ~ - . . ~rat
11H
Jesse H. Ausube! and Robert Herman
Editors
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1988
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National Academy Press ~ 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW ~ Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter
of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is
autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National
Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National
Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs,
encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievement of engineers. Dr.
Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
Funds for the National Academy of Engineering's Symposium Series on Technology and
Social Priorities were provided by the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, Carnegie Corporation of
New York, and the Academy's Technology Agenda Program. This publication has been reviewed
by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Com-
mittee. The views expressed in this volume are those of the authors and are not presented as the
views of the Mellon Foundation, Carnegie Corporation, or the National Academy of Engineering.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Cities and their vital systems.
(Series on technology and social priorities)
Bibliography: p.
Includes index.
1. Cities and towns United States Growth
Congresses. 2. Infrastructure (Economics) United
States Congresses. 3. United States Public works
Congresses. I. Ausubel, Jesse. II. Herman. Robert.
III. National Academy of Engineering. IV. Series.
HT371.C585 1988 363'.0973 88-12517
ISBN 0-309-03786-7
Copyright ~3 1988 by the National Academy of Sciences
No part of this book may be reproduced by any mechanical, photographic, or electronic process,
or in the form of a phonographic recording, nor may it be stored in a retrieval system, transmitted,
or otherwise copied for public or private use, without written permission from the publisher,
except for the purposes of official use by the United States Government.
Printed in the United States of America
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ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON TECHNOLOGY AND SOCIETY
Chairman
ROBERT M. WHITE, President, National Academy of Engineering
Members
RUTHERFORD Ares, Regents' Professor, Department of Chemical
Engineering and Materials Science, University of Minnesota
DAVID P. BILEINGTON, Professor of Civil Engineering, School of
Engineering and Applied Science, Princeton University
HARVEY BROOKS, Benjamin Peirce Professor of Technology and Public
Policy, Emeritus, Harvard University
HARLAN CLEVELAND, Professor of Public Affairs and Planning, University
of Minnesota
DoNA~D N. FREY, Chairman and CEO, Bell & Howell Company
JOHN H. GissoNs, Director, Office of Technology Assessment, U.S.
Congress
MARY L. GOOD, President, Engineered Materials Research, Allied-Signal
Inc.
HENRY R. LINDEN, Executive Advisor, Gas Research Institute
JAMES BRIAN Quinn, William and Josephine Buchanan Professor of
Management, Amos Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College
FREDERICK C. RossiNs, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics,
School of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University
WALTER G. V~NcENT~, Professor Emeritus of Aeronautics and
Astronautics, Stanford University
Alvin M. WEINBERG, Distinguished Fellow, Institute for Energy Analysis,
Oak Ridge Associated Universities
. . .
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Preface
Infrastructure is the term applied to large-scale engineering systems and
includes a variety of public works, such as roads, bridges, and sewer
systems, as well as privately managed utilities such as electric power and
telephone service. Much publicity has been given infrastructure in recent
years as news of collapsing bridges and crowded airports makes evident
our dependence on infrastructure.
Recent studies have considered the urgent problems of financing and
maintaining current public works. However, what of major long-range
perspectives on infrastructure needs and development? To address these
issues, the National Academy of Engineering conducted a workshop en-
titled "The Evolution of Future Infrastructures" in Woods Hole, Mas-
sachusetts, in August 1986. Focusing primarily on problems inherent in
urban areas, the workshop aimed to strengthen and focus research on
infrastructure; to raise critical infrastructure issues for society, industry,
and government; and to describe better for people the new sociotechnical
systems that may grow around and for them. It also attempted to identify
technological possibilities for the next 30-50 years in systems such as
transportation, communication, water, and energy.
The discussions at the workshop having persuaded us that a volume on
infrastructures would be useful, we continued with the project, focusing
on this book. We deliberately adopted an expansive definition of infra-
structure. While the emphasis in the book is on the great networks and
nodes that immediately come to mind in such areas as power supply and
transportation, we also seek to understand other aspects of our built en
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PREFACE
vironment that are lasting and, more generally, what it is that physically
makes up or characterizes a city. We emphasize the technology, history,
and theory of infrastructure. The very important issues of politics and
finance are alluded to, but to be covered adequately, would require a
separate volume of equal size. Art and design considerations similarly
merit in-depth consideration beyond what is possible in this single volume.
I would like to thank Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Andrew
W. Mellon Foundation for their funding of this activity. The Evolution
of Future Infrastructures Workshop was the sixth in a series of events
conducted under grants given the NAE to pursue studies of importance
to technology and society. Certainly no subject is more fundamental to
society or more affected by technology than our major infrastructural
systems.
I believe that this volume has far-reaching implications and want to
express my sincere thanks to the participants in the workshop for their
creative contributions and to the authors who persevered through a lengthy
process of revision and review. I would also like to note insightful con-
tributions by Alfred Blumstein, Leonard Duhl, John Eberhard, Denos
Gazis, and Richard Rothery, whose comments I hope are captured in the
introductory essay. David Billington and Thomas Larson provided valu-
able responses to the draft essays. Special thanks are due Robert Herman,
chairman of the workshop, for his imagination and enthusiasm, and Jesse
H. Ausubel, director of the NAE Program Office, for the planning and
execution of this activity, including a remarkable adventure across Vine-
yard Sound that revealed a resilient local transport infrastructure, and to
both of them for their excellent editing of the volume. I also want to
express my gratitude to the Advisory Committee on Technology and So-
ciety (p. iii) for its oversight, to Penelope J. Gibbs for administration of
the activity, and to NAE editor H. Dale Langford and Caroline G. An-
derson, administrative secretary with the NAE Program Office, for their
work in preparing the manuscript for publication.
ROBERT M. WHITE
President
National Academy of Engineering
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Contents
Cities and Infrastructure: Synthesis and Perspectives
Robert Herman and Jesse H. Ausube!
2 The Dynamic Characterization of Cities
Robert Herman, Siamak A. Ardekani, Shekhar Govinci,
and Edgar Dona
3 How Cities Grew in the Western World: A Systems
Approach .....................................
Lynn Hollen Lees and Paul M. Hohenberg
4 Urban Systems and Historical Path Dependence
W. Brian Arthur
5 An Economic Mode! of Urban Growth
Martin ]. Beckmann
6 Growth of U.S. Cities and Recent Trends in
Urban Real Estate Values ....................
John S. Adams
7 Infrastructures for Movement: Past and Future
Cesare Marchetti
8 Dynamics and Replacement of U.S. Transport
Infrastructures ........................................
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
.........
7
...... 85
.......................... 98
, ............
...... 108
................. 146
..... 175
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l
9 Air Traffic Congestion: Problems and Prospects
Thomas Craig
10 Combining Communications and Computing:
CONTENTS
.............. 222
Telematics Infrastructures 233
Dean Gillette
11 Reflections on the Telecommunications Infrastructure
Harvey Brooks
12 Water Supply and Distribution: The Next 50 Years
Royce Hanson
13 The Urban Wastewater Infrastructure
Bernard B. Berger
14 New Construction Technologies for Rebuilding the Nation's
Infrastructure .................................
C. William Ibbs and Diego Echeverry
15 Longevity of Infrastructure
Gregg Mariandt and Alvin M. Weinberg
Contributors ..........................................................
Index ........
........ 249
.......... 258
.278
................. 294
................ 312
333
.. 339
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~ ITIES
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