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Distributed Decision Making Report of a Workshop Committee on Human Factors Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C. 1990

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineenng, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard to appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of dis- tinguished scholars engaged in sacntiSc and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public The Institute acts under the respasibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of scicace and technology with the Academy~s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in prodding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This work relates tO the Department of the Navy Grant N0Q014~5-6 0093 issued by the Office of Naval Research and Department of the Army Grants MDA903 88-C 0031 and MDA903-89-K 0074 issued by the Defense Supply Service Washington. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the Government, and no official cndomcmcnt should be inferred. The United States Government has at least a royalty-free, nonexclusive and irrevocable license throughout the world for gove2nmcnt pu~scs to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform, dispose of, and to authorize others so as to do, all or any portion of this work Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 89 64440 International Standard Book Number 0-309 04199-6 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue N.W. Washington, D.C 20418 S103 Printed in the United States of America First Printing, April 1990 Second Printing, July 1991

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Dedicated to the memory of Clyde H. Coombs: scholar, citizen, fnend

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COMMITTEE ON HUMAN FACTORS DOUGLAS H. HARRIS (Chair), Anacapa Sciences, Inc., Santa Barbara, California PAUL ~ Al lE;WELL, Department of Sociology, State University of New York, Stony Brook MOHAMED M. AYOUB, Institute of Biotechnology, Texas Tech University JEROME I. ELKIND, Xerox Corporation, Sunnyvale, California MIRIAN M. GRADDICK, AT&T Corporation, Basking Ridge, New Jersey OSCAR GRUSKY, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles JULIAN HOCHBERG, Department of Psychology, Columbia University THOMAS K LANDAUER, Bell Communications Research, Mornstown, New Jersey NEVILLE P. MORAY, Department of Mechancial and Industrial Engineering,.University of Illinois RAYMOND S. NICKERSON, BEN Laboratories, Cambridge, Massachusetts CHRISTOPHER D. WICKENS, Aviation Research Laboratory, University of Illinois ROBERT C. WILLIGES, Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University J. FRANK YATES, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan HAROLD P. VAN COST, Study Director BEVERLY M. HUEY, Research Associate ELIZABETH F. NEILSEN, Research Associate SARA K WAMSLEY, Senior Secretary v

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PARTICIPANTS WORKSHOP ON DISTRIBUTED DECISION MAKING Baruch Fischhoff (Cochair), Deparunent of Social & Decision Sciences, Department of Engineering & Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Oscar Grusly (Cochair), Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles Kathleen Carley, Department of Social & Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Clyde Coombs, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan Robyn Dawes, Department of Social & Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Stanley Deutsch, Study Director (1985-1987), Committee on Human Factors Ralph Disney, Department of Industrial Engineering, Texas A & M University, Houston, Texas Larry Hirschhorn, Wharton Center for Applied Research, University of Pennsylvania Milton Katz, Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, Alexandria, Virginia GaIy Klein, Klein Associates, Inc., Yellow Springs, Ohio Todd LaPorte, Institute for Governmental Studies, University of California, Berkeley Arie Lewin, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina & National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. Elizabeth Pate-Cornell, Department of Industrial Engineering, Stanford University One Svenson, Department of Psychology, University of Stockholm Frederick Thompson, Center for Naval Analysis, Alexandria, Virginia Oliver Williamson, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley V~1

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Foreword The Committee on Human Factors was established in October 1980 by the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of the National Research Council. The committee is sponsored by the Air Force Armstrong Aeromedical Research Laboratory, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, the Army Advanced Systems Research Office, the Army Human Engineering Laboratory, the Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the Federal Aviation Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the Office of Naval Research. The principal objectives of the committee are to provide new perspectives on theoretical and methodological issues, to identify basic research needed to expand and strengthen the scientific basis of human factors, and to attract scientists both within and outside the field for interactive communication and to perform needed research. The committee aims to provide a solid foundation of research as a base on which effective human factors practices can build. Human factors issues arise in every domain in which humans interact with the products of a technological society. In order to perform its role effectively, the committee draws on experts from a wide range of scientific and engineering disciplines. Members of the committee include special- ists in such fields as psychology, engineering, biomechanics, physiology, medicine, cognitive sciences, machine intelligence, computer sciences, so- ciology, education, and human factors engineering. Other disciplines are represented in the working groups, workshops, and symposia organized by the committee. Each of these disciplines contributes to the basic dam, theory, and methods required to improve the scientific basis of human factors . . V11

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Contents Preface.......... Introduction ............................ Theories for Distributed Decision Malting Exploring Alternative Definitions, 4 Improving the Availability of Existing Theories, 5 Extending the Range of Existing Theories, 6 Empirical Research for Distributed Decision Making ............. Research Topics in Individual Behavior, 7 Research Topics in Individual-Machine Behavior, 10 Research Topics in Multiple Individual Behavior, 13 Research Topics in Organizational Behavior, 15 Research Methods for Distributed Decision Making, 16 References ........................................................ Appendix A: The Possibility of Distnbuted Decision Making Baruch Fischhoff and Stephen Johnson .................. Appendix B: Background Matenals ........................ ax ...21 25 .59

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Preface Since its inception in 198O, the Committee on Human Factors of the National Research Council has issued a series of reports regarding the state of knowledge and research needs in different areas. Some of these topics have been pursued on the committee's own initiative, whereas others were suggested by its sponsors. In 1984, two sponsors of the committee, the Office of Naval Research and the Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, approached the committee to express in- terest in the topic of distributed decision making. After deliberation, the committee developed a workable definition of that concept in the form of a description of the task faced by "organizations in which the informa- tion and responsibility for decision making Is distributed among individuals within the organization, who are often distributed geographically." The committee concluded that, although the term was new, the problem is an old one, given important new wrinkles by advances in modern technology. The committee then decided to plan and hold a workshop on this topic. I-he workshop was held December ~5, 1986, in Washington, D.C. In the course of preparing its approach to the workshop, the commit- tee benefited greatly from briefings by John Dockery, Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and staff members at the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University, coordinated by Bruce Hamill. Karen Cook of the University of Washington, Zvi Lanir of 161 Aviv University, Chuck Mills of the U.S. Forest Service, living Mirman of Decision Process Systems, and Franklin Moses of the Army Research Institute also provided useful input. In constituting the workshop, particular attention was paid to ensuring that all disciplines relevant to the problem would be represented and that existing scientific knowledge would be brought to bear on the problem. We In

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were fortunate to have the active participation of many distinguished indi- viduals before, during, and after the workshop. We gratefully acknowledge the contributions of everyone who has helped us in this endeavor. Prior to the workshop, all participants received a copy of an article by Baruch Fischhoff and Steven Johnson, "The Possibility of Distributed Decision Making." Since the human factors community had paid little attention to this area as a significant social and scientific problem, this paper provided needed background and served as a point of departure for the thinking of the workshop participants. Because of its central role, and because it provides an introduction to some of the issues and literatures of distributed decision making, the article appears as Appendix A to this report. Three reports by participants on their own research with existing distributed decision-making systems were also valuable: one by Add R. LaPorte on managing air traffic control, electricity utility grids, and aircraft carrier operations; another by Gary Klein on fire fighting in both urban and rural environments; and a third by Frederick Thompson on the Composite Warfare Commander approach to management of war at sea. In addition, the Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident provided workshop participants with a valuable perspective. These discussions of concrete cases provided a common pool of examples for all participants, as well as the opportunity to become familiar with one another (and one another's disciplines) by working through a problem together. The topics discussed in the workshop and summary here are but a subset of issues comprising the domain of distributed decision making. They were chosen because the committee judged them to be of particular interest to the human factors community. Other topics, important as they may be, were excluded from the two-day format adopted. The organizing committee for the workshop included Clyde H. Coombs, Oscar Grusly, and Banlch FischhofI. Shortly after the workshop, Clyde died. With him, we all lost a great friend and the scientific community lost a major contributor. In a small measure of our appreciation, we dedicate this report to him. He played a significant role in its creation. Appreciation is extended to Harold plan Colt, committee study direc- tor, who offered technical and editorial suggestions to improve the report; Elizabeth Neilsen, research associate, who coordinated workshop and pub- lication logistics and contributed to the editing of the report; Christine McShane, CBASSE reports editor, who improved the clarity and style of the final draft; and Sara Wamsley and Carole Foote, who provided administrative and secretarial support Douglas H. Harris, Chair Committee on Human Factors ,, X11