Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming
Mitigation, Adaptation,
and the Science Base
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1992
National Academy Press • 2101 Constitution Ave.,
N.W. • Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was
approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council,
whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy
of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report
were chosen for their special competences and with regard for
appropriate balance. This report is the result of work done by an
independent panel appointed by the Committee on Science,
Engineering, and Public Policy, which has authorized its release to
the public.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors
according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee and
by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy. Both
consist of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the
National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (U.S.).
Panel on
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming.
Policy implications of greenhouse warming : mitigation,
adaptation, and the science base / Panel on Policy Implications
of
Greenhouse Warming, Committee on Science, Engineering, and
Public
Policy, National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of
Engineering, Institute of Medicine.
p. cm.
Contains the report of the Policy Implications of Greenhouse
WarmingSynthesis Panel published separately in 1991 under the
same
title.
Includes bibliographical references and indexes.
ISBN 0-309-04386-7
1. Global warmingGovernment policyUnited States.
2. Greenhouse effect, AtmosphericGovernment
policyUnited States
3. Environmental policyUnited States. I. Title.
QC98.8.G56C64 1992
363.73´87dc20 92-11583
CIP
This book is printed on acid-free recycled stock.
Copyright 1992 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights
reserved.
S308
Printed in the United States of America
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Page iii
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Synthesis Panel
DANIEL J. EVANS (Chairman), Chairman, Daniel J. Evans & Associates, Seattle, Washington
ROBERT McCORMICK ADAMS, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C.
GEORGE F. CARRIER, T. Jefferson Coolidge Professor of Applied Mathematics, Emeritus, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
RICHARD N. COOPER, Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT A. FROSCH, Vice President, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan
THOMAS H. LEE, Professor Emeritus, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
JESSICA TUCHMAN MATHEWS, Vice President, World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
GORDON H. ORIANS, Professor of Zoology and Director of the Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Washington, Seattle
STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Head, Interdisciplinary Climate Systems, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
MAURICE STRONG, Secretary General, United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, New York (resigned from panel February 1990)
SIR CRISPIN TICKELL, Warden, Green College, Oxford, England
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Senior Consultant, Landers, Parsons and Uhlfelder, Tallahassee, Florida
PAUL E. WAGGONER, Distinguished Scientist, The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven
Staff
ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director
DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer
NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist
MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary
Page iv
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Effects Panel
GEORGE F. CARRIER (Chairman), T. Jefferson Coolidge Professor of Applied Mathematics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
WILFRIED BRUTSAERT, Professor of Hydrology, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
ROBERT D. CESS, Leading Professor, State University of New York, Stony Brook
HERMAN CHERNOFF, Professor of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT E. DICKINSON, Professor, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson
JOHN IMBRIE, H.L. Doherty Professor of Oceanography, Department of Geological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island
THOMAS B. KARL, Meteorologist, Climate Research and Applications, National Climate Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina
MICHAEL C. MacCRACKEN, Physicist and Division Leader, Atmospheric and Geophysical Sciences, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, University of California, Livermore
BERRIEN MOORE, Professor and Director, Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham
Staff
ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director
DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer
NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist
MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary
Page v
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Mitigation Panel
THOMAS H. LEE (Chairman), Professor Emeritus, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
PETER BREWER, Executive Director, Monterey Bay Aquarium and Research Center, Pacific Grove, California
RICHARD N. COOPER, Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
ROBERT CRANDALL, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT EVENSON, Professor of Economics, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, New Haven, Connecticut
DOUGLAS FOY, Executive Director, Conservation Law Foundation, Boston, Massachusetts
ROBERT A. FROSCH, Vice President, General Motors Research Laboratories, Warren, Michigan
RICHARD GARWIN, Fellow, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York, and Adjunct Professor of Physics, Columbia University, New York
JOSEPH GLAS, Director, Vice President, and General Manager, Fluorochemicals Division, E.I. du Pont, Wilmington, Delaware
KAI N. LEE, Professor and Director, Center for Environmental Studies, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
GREGG MARLAND, Scientist, Environmental Science Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
JESSICA TUCHMAN MATHEWS, Vice President, World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C.
ARTHUR H. ROSENFELD, Professor of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, and Director, Center for Building Science, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, California
EDWARD S. RUBIN, Professor, Mechanical Engineering and Public Policy, and Director, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Carnegie-Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
MILTON RUSSELL, Professor of Economics and Senior Fellow, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and Collaborating Scientist, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
STEPHEN H. SCHNEIDER, Head, Interdisciplinary Climate Systems, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
EUGENE B. SKOLNIKOFF, Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
THOMAS H. STIX, Professor, Department of Astrophysics and Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
EDITH BROWN WEISS, Professor of Law, Georgetown University, Washington, D.C. (resigned from panel October 1990)
Staff
ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director
DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer
NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist
MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary
Page vi
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming Adaptation Panel
PAUL E. WAGGONER (Chairman), Distinguished Scientist, Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station, New Haven, Connecticut
JESSE H. AUSUBEL, Fellow in Science and Public Policy, The Rockefeller University, New York
CLARK BINKLEY, Dean, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
MARY M. KRITZ, Professor of Development Sociology and Associate Director, Population and Development Program, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York
JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University professor, The Rockefeller University, New York
WILLIAM LEWIS, Partner, McKinsey and Company, Washington, D.C.
JON C. LIEBMAN, Professor of Environmental Engineering, Civil Engineering Department, University of Illinois, Urbana
JANE LUBCHENCO, Professor, Department of Zoology, Oregon State University, Corvallis
WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS, Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
GORDON H. ORIANS, Professor of Zoology and Environmental Studies, University of Washington, Seattle
WILLIAM E. RIEBSAME, Director, Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center, University of Colorado, Boulder
NORMAN J. ROSENBERG, Senior Fellow and Director, Climate Resources Program, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
DANIEL P. SHEER, President, Water Resources Management, Columbia, Maryland
SIR CRISPIN TICKELL, Warden, Green College, Oxford, England
Staff
ROB COPPOCK, Staff Director
DEBORAH D. STINE, Staff Officer
NANCY A. CROWELL, Administrative Specialist
MARION R. ROBERTS, Administrative Secretary
Page vii
Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy
CORNELIUS J. PINGS (Chairman), Provost and Senior Vice President of Academic Affairs, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
NORMAN ABRAMSON,* former Executive Vice President, Southwest Research Institute
LAWRENCE BOGORAD, Maria Moors Cabot Professor of Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
STUART BONDURANT, Professor and Dean, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
ROBERT A. BURT, South Mayd Professor of Law, Yale Law School, New Haven, Connecticut
ALBERT M. CLOGSTON, Member, Center for Material Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
RALPH E. GOMORY, President, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New York
HARRY B. GRAY, Arnold O. Beckman Professor of Chemistry, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
WILLIAM G. HOWARD, JR., Scottsdale, Arizona
RICHARD J. JOHNS, † Massey Professor and Director, Department of Biomedical Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
FRANCIS E. LOW, Institute Professor, Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
JOHN L. McLUCAS, Aerospace Consultant, Alexandria, Virginia
C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Executive Director of Research, Materials Science Engineering and Academic Affairs Division, AT&T Bell Laboratories, Murray Hill, New Jersey
FRANK PRESS (Ex-Officio), President, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.
MAXINE F. SINGER, † President, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT M. SOLOW, Institute Professor, Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
H. GUYFORD STEVER, Science Advisor, Washington, D.C.
KENNETH I. SHINE (Ex-Officio), President, Institute of Medicine, Washington, D.C.
ROBERT M. WHITE (Ex-Officio), President, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D.C.
Staff
LAWRENCE E. McCRAY, Executive Director
BARBARA A. CANDLAND, Administrative Assistant
*Term expired 6/30/90.
†Term expired 6/30/91.
Page viii
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP) is a joint committee of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. It includes members of the councils of all three bodies.
The study reported here was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It also received support from the National Research Council Fund, a pool of private, discretionary, nonfederal funds that is used to support a program of Academy studies of national issues in which science and technology figure significantly. The NRC Fund consists of contributions from a consortium of private foundations, including the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Charles E. Culpeper Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the Academy Industry Program, which seeks annual contributions from companies that are concerned with the health of U.S. science and technology and with public policy issues with technological content.
Page ix
Preface
Greenhouse gases and global warming have received increasing attention in recent years. The identification of the antarctic ozone hole in 1985 combined with the hot, dry summer of 1988 in North America to provide the drama that seems to be required for capturing national media coverage. Emerging scientific results, including findings about greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, added to the interest.
One consequence was congressional action. The HUD-Independent Agencies Appropriations Act of 1988 (House Report 100-701:26) called for
[an] NAS study on global climate change. This study should establish the scientific consensus on the rate and magnitude of climate change, estimate the projected impacts, and evaluate policy options for mitigating and responding to such changes. The need for and utility of improved temperature monitoring capabilities should also be examined, as resources permit.
According to subsequent advice received from members of Congress, the study was to focus on radiatively active trace gases from human sources, or "greenhouse warming." This report combines in a single volume the products of that study.
The study was conducted under the auspices of the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy, a unit of the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The study involved nearly 50 experts, including scientists as well as individuals with experience in government, private industry, and public interest organizations.
The work of the study was conducted by four panels. The Synthesis Panel (whose membership is listed on page iii) was charged with developing overall findings and recommendations. The Effects Panel (whose membership is listed on page iv) examined what is known about changing climatic
Page x
conditions and related effects. The Mitigation Panel (whose membership is listed on page v) looked at options for reducing or reversing the onset of potential global warming. The Adaptation Panel (whose membership is listed on page vi) assessed the impacts of possible climate change on human and ecologic systems and the policies that could help people and natural systems adapt to those changes.
The panels conducted their analyses simultaneously between September 1989 and January 1991. The chairmen of the Effects, Mitigation, and Adaptation panels were members of the Synthesis Panel. Several members of the Synthesis Panel also were members of other panels. In its deliberations, however, the Synthesis Panel considered more than just the reports of the other panels. It also heard from experts with a range of views on the policy relevance of computer simulation models, widely held to be the best available tools for projecting climate change, and of economic models used to assess consequences of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The study also drew upon the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international effort released during the course of the study. Several members of the various study panels also contributed to that effort. Finally, the study drew upon other Academy studies. For example, in its examination of sea level, the panel used analyses from the following reports: Glaciers, Ice Sheets, and Sea Level: Effects of a CO2-Induced Climatic Change (National Academy Press, 1985); Responding to Changes in Sea Level: Engineering Implications (National Academy Press, 1987); and Sea-Level Change (National Academy Press, 1990). The findings and recommendations of the Synthesis Panel are thus much more than a summary of the assessments performed by the other three panels. They contain analysis that goes beyond the topics covered by the other panels.
About eight months elapsed between the initial release of the report of the Synthesis Panel and the time at which this document went to press. The response to that report and to the prepublication documents prepared by the other panels has been gratifying. Our findings and recommendations and the analyses upon which they are based have been presented to members of Congress and officials in the federal administration. They have been distributed to officials and interested individuals in other countries. Many news stories have referred to our work. We believe the study has already helped guide the national debate and demonstrated a rational approach to evaluating possible responses. We hope this document will continue to do so.
The report identifies what should be done now to counter potential greenhouse warming or deal with its likely consequences. The recommendations, if followed, should provide the United States, and the rest of the world, with a rational basis for responding to this important concern.
The Honorable Daniel J. Evans,
Chairman
Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming
Page xi
Contents
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Policy Implications of
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