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A New Science Strategy fo~-
Space Astronomy and Astrophysics
Task Group on Space Astronomy and Astrophysics
Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics
Space Studies Board
Board on Physic
s and Astronomy
-
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1997
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report
were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report
Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of
Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars
engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their
use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy
has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce
Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of
Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the
selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal
government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting
national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr.
William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services
of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the
public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional
charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care,
research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the
broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising
the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council
has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy
of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communi-
ties. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and
Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
Support for this project was provided by Contracts NASW 4627 and NASW 96013 between the National
Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclu-
sions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the
view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-05827-9
Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
COVER: Cover designed by Penny E. Margolskee. Illustrations courtesy of the Space Science Telescope Institute.
Copies of this report are available from:
Space Studies Board
National Research Council
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20418
Printed in the United States of America
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TASK GROUP ON SPACE ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
Steering Group
PATRICK THADDEUS, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Chair
MARC DAVIS, University of California, Berkeley
JONATHAN E. GRINDLAY, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
MICHAEL HAWSER, Space Telescope Science Institute
RICHARD G. KRON, University of Chicago
CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California, Berkeley
MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona
J. CRAIG WHEELER, University of Texas, Austin
Panel on Planets, Star Formation, and the Interstellar Medium
CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California, Berkeley, Chair
CHARLES A. BEICHMAN, California Institute of Technology/Jet Propulsion Laboratory
LEO BLITZ, University of California, Berkeley
JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago
SUZAN EDWARDS, Smith College
DAVID J. HOLLENBACH, NASA/Ames Research Center
CHARLES J. LADA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
DOUGLAS N.C. LIN, University of California, Santa Cruz
DAN McCAMMON, University of Wisconsin
RICHARD A. McCRAY, University of Colorado, Boulder
BLAIR D. SAVAGE, University of Wisconsin
J. MICHAEL SHULL, University of Colorado, Boulder
Panel on Stars and Stellar Evolution
J. CRAIG WHEELER, University of Texas, Austin, Chair
ANDREA K. DUPREE, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
DAVID J. HELFAND, Columbia University
STEVEN M. KAHN, Columbia University
DAVID L. LAMBERT, University of Texas, Austin
ROBERT D. MATHIEU, University of Wisconsin
THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology
ROBERT ROSNER, University of Chicago
JEAN H. SWANK, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
PAULA SZKODY, University of Washington
. . .
ADZ
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Panel on Galaxies and Stellar Systems
RICHARD G. KRON, University of Chicago, Chair
JILL BECHTOLD, University of Arizona
ARTHUR F. DAVIDSEN, Johns Hopkins University
ALAN M. DRESSIER, Carnegie Observatories
MARTIN ELVIS, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
WENDY L. FREEDMAN, Carnegie Observatories
JACQUELINE N. HEWITT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN P. HUCHRA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
ROBERT C. KENNICUTT, University of Arizona
JERRY E. NELSON, University of California, Santa Cruz
B. TOM SOIFER, California Institute of Technology
JAMES W. TRURAN, JR., University of Chicago
C. MEGAN URRY, Space Telescope Science Institute
Panel on Cosmology and Fundamental Physics
MICHAEL HAWSER, Space Telescope Science Institute, Chair
ELIHU BOLDT, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory
PHIL LUBIN, University of California, Santa Barbara
RICHARD F. MUSHOTZKY, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
ANTHONY C.S. READHEAD, California Institute of Technology
BERNARD SADOULET, University of California, Berkeley
DAVID N. SPERGEL, University of Maryland
MICHAEL S. TURNER, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
RAINER WEISS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
CLIFFORD M. WILL, Washington University
Staff
DAVID H. SMITH, Study Director
ALTORIA B. ROSS, Senior Program Assistant
SHOBITA PARTHASARATHY, Research Assistant
STEPHANIE A. ROY, Research Assistant
ELAINE HARRIS, Interim Program Assistant
IV
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COMMITTEE ON ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS
MARC DAVIS, University of California, Berkeley, Co-chair
MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona, Co-chair
LEO BLITZ, University of California, Berkeley
ARTHUR F. DAVIDSEN, Johns Hopkins University
WENDY L. FREEDMAN, Carnegie Observatories
JONATHAN E. GRINDLAY, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
JOHN P. HUCHRA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
STEVEN M. KAHN, Columbia University
KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory
RICHARD A. McCRAY,* University of Colorado, Boulder
ROBERT ROSNER, University of Chicago
BERNARD SADOULET,* University of California, Berkeley
MICHAEL S. TURNER, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer
*Term ended in 1996.
v
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SPACE STUDIES BOARD
CLAUDE R. CANIZARES, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chair
MARK R. ABBOTT, Oregon State University
JAMES P. BAGIAN, Environmental Protection Agency
DANIEL N. BAKER, University of Colorado, Boulder
LAWRENCE BOGORAD, Harvard University
DONALD E. BROWNLEE, University of Washington
JOHN J. DONEGAN, John Donegan Associates Inc.
GERARD W. ELVERUM, JR., TRW
ANTHONY W. ENGLAND, University of Michigan
MARTIN E. GLICKSMAN, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
RONALD GREELEY, Arizona State University
BILL GREEN, former member, U.S. House of Representatives
ANDREW H. KNOLL, Harvard University
JANET G. LUHMANN, University of California, Berkeley
ROBERTA BALSTAD MILLER, CIESIN
BERRIEN MOORE III, University of New Hampshire
KENNETH H. NEALSON, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee
MARY JANE OSBORN, University of Connecticut Health Center
SIMON OSTRACH, Case Western Reserve University
MORTON B. PANISH, AT&T Bell Laboratories (retired)
CARLE M. PIETERS, Brown University
MARCIA J. RIEKE, University of Arizona
JOHN A. SIMPSON, University of Chicago
ROBERT E. WILLIAMS, Space Telescope Science Institute
MARC S. ALLEN, Director
Vl
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BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY
DAVID N. SCHRAMM, University of Chicago, Chair
ROBERT C. DYNES, University of California, San Diego, Vice Chair
IRA BERNSTEIN, Yale University
PRAVEEN CHAUDHARI, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
STEVEN CHU, Stanford University
JEROME I. FRIEDMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
MARGARET GELLER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
IVAR GIAEVER, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
WILLIAM KLEMPERER, Harvard University
AL NARATH, Lockheed Martin Corporation
JOSEPH M. PROUD, Sudbury, Massachusetts
ANTHONY C.S. READHEAD, California Institute of Technology
ROBERT C. RICHARDSON, Cornell University
R.G. HAMISH ROBERTSON, University of Washington
J. ANTHONY TYSON, Lucent Technologies
DAVID WILKINSON, Princeton University
DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director
vet
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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS
ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation, Co-chair
W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Boulder, Co-chair
PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania
RONALD-G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University
JOHN E. ESTES, University of California, Santa Barbara
L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, Elf Atochem North America Inc.
JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University
RHONDA J. HUGHES, Bryn Mawr College
SHIRLEY A. JACKSON, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota
KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory
MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California, Los Angeles
DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company
MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania
THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology
NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory
L.E. SCRIVEN, University of Minnesota
SHMUEL WINOGRAD, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center
CHARLES A. ZRAKET, MITRE Corporation (retired)
NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director
. . .
vzz~
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Foreword
In 1991 the National Research Council issued a detailed strategy for astronomy and astrophysics for the next
decades prepared by a committee under the leadership of John Bahcall. Like previous decadal studies in this field,
the report identified in priority order the most important scientific programs and projects for both ground- and
space-based research. It recommended a single large initiative for space, the Space Infrared Telescope Facility,
which now appears to be getting under way, albeit on a smaller scale than was originally envisaged.
The Bahcall committee members recognized that preparations for any subsequent space missions would have
to begin during the second half of the decade, before the next decadal study. They recommended a series of
technology initiatives that could lead to definition of subsequent missions. Although changes in the budget and
philosophy of NASA have occurred since 1991, the schedule of events remains approximately as they foresaw.
The present report of the Task Group on Space Astronomy and Astrophysics, the Committee on Astronomy
and Astrophysics, and the Space Studies Board represents a mid-decadal review of the most important and timely
priorities in space astrophysics for the early years of the next decade. The topics described here have a high
potential for breathtaking discoveries that will excite both scientists and the public. As the Bahcall committee
report did in 1991, this report also recognizes fiscal realities by making difficult choices among many excellent
initiatives. It should inform NASA and its own advisory committees as they update the agency's strategic plan for
space science.
Claude R. Canizares, Chair
Space Studies Board
National Research Council, The Decade of Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1991
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 FRAMEWORK OF THIS STUDY
Origin and Relationship to Decadal Surveys, 4
Relationship to the Space Studies Board's Other Space Science Strategies, 5
Approach to Prioritization, 5
Assumptions, 6
Related Concerns, 7
Organization of This Report, 8
References, 9
PLANETS, STAR FORMATION, AND THE INTERSTELLAR MEDIUM
Key Themes, 10
Formation and Evolution of Planetary Systems, 11
Formation of Stars from the Interstellar Medium, 13
Evolution of the Interstellar Medium in Galaxies, 16
Conclusions, 19
3 STARS AND STELLAR EVOLUTION
Key Themes, 22
Life Cycles of Stars, 22
Origin of the Elements, 26
Behavior of Matter Under Extreme Conditions, 29
Stars as Probes: Measuring the Universe, 31
Conclusions, 33
GALAXIES AND STELLAR SYSTEMS
Key Themes, 36
Development of Present-Day Structures, 36
Chemical Composition of the Universe, 38
Dark Matter, 40
Baryons Outside of Galaxies, 41
Xl
1
4
10
21
35
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. .
X11
Supermassive Black Holes and Quasar Power Sources, 43
Conclusions, 46
5 COSMOLOGY AND FUNDAMENTAL PHYSICS
Key Themes, 47
Origin and Evolution of the Universe, 47
Contents of the Universe, 51
New Astrophysical Windows and Cosmic Mysteries, 54
Conclusions, 57
6 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
GLOSSARY
CONTENTS
47
58
63