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OCR for page R1
D I BASTE RS
by Design
A Reassessment of Natural Hazards
in the United States
DENNIS S. MILETI
University of Colorado at Boulder
with the contributions of participants
in the
Assessment of Research and Applications on
Natural Hazards
AN ACTIVITY OF TH E
I INTERNATIONAL DECADE FOR
NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION
Joseph Henry Press
Washington, D.C.
OCR for page R2
JOSEPH HENRY PRESS · 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. · Washington, D.C. 20418
The Joseph Henry Press, an imprint of the National Academy Press, was created with the
goal of making books on science, technology, and health more widely available to profes-
sionals and the public. Joseph Henry was one of the founders of the National Academy of
Sciences and a leader of early American science.
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication
are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or
agencies that provided support for the project.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Mileti, Dennis S.
Disasters by design: a reassessment of natural hazards in the
United States / Dennis S. Mileti
p. cm. (Natural hazards and disasters)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-309-06360-4 (alk. paper)
1. Emergency management United States. 2. Disaster
relief United States. 3. Natural disasters United States. 4.
Hazardous geographic environments United States. 5. Sustainable
development- United States. I. Title. II. Series.
HV551.3.M55 1999
363.34'0973 ddc21
99-295 1 1
CIP
Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
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Contributing Authors
Christopher R. Adams, Colorado State University
Daniel Alesch, University of Wisconsin at Green Bay
James Ament, State Farm Fire and Casualty Co.
Jill Andrews, University of Southern California
Norbert S. Baer, New York University
Jay Baker, Florida State University
Conrad Battreal, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Timothy Beatley, University of Virginia at Charlottesville
Stephen O. Bender, Organization of American States
Philip R. Berke, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Dennis Black, Colorado State University
B. Wayne Blanchard, Federal Emergency Management Agency
Robert Bolin, Arizona State University
Patricia A. Bolton, Battelle Human Affairs Research Center
Linda B. Bourque, University of California at Los Angeles
David grower, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
William M. Brown, U.S. Geological Survey
Ian G. Buckle, State University of New York at Buffalo
Angelia P. Bukley, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Raymond }. Burby, University of New Oricans
Bonnie Butler, Federal Emergency Management Agency
David L. Butler, University of Colorado at Boulder
Peggy A. Case, Terrebonne Readiness and Assistance Coalition
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IV
Harold Cochrane, Colorado State University
Nicolas Colmenares, University of Colorado at Boulder
Louise Comfort, University of Pittsburgh
James N. Corbridge, Jr., University of Colorado at Boulder
Susan L. Cutter, University of South Carolina at Columbia
JoAnne DeRouen Darlington, Colorado State University
James F. Davis, California Division of Mines and Geology
Robert E. Deyle, Florida State University
John A. Dracup, University of California at Los Angeles
Thomas Durham, Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium
Ute Dymon, Kent State University
Charles Eadie, City of Watsonville at California
David Etkin, Environment Canada
Dean C. Flesner, State Farm Fire and Casualty Co.
Betsy Forrest, University of Colorado at Boulder
Alice Fothergill, University of Colorado at Boulder
Steven P. French, Georgia Institute of Technology
Karen Gahagan, Institute for Business and Home Safety
Luis A. Garcia, Colorado State University
David F. Gillespie, Washington University
David R. Godschalk, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Joseph H. Golden, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Marjorie Greene, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Eve Gruntfest, University of Colorado at Colorado Springs
Neil Hawkins, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Walter Hays, U.S. Geological Survey
James P. Heaney, University of Colorado at Boulder
Edward J. Hecker, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Henry Hengeveld, Environment Canada
Michael Hodgson, University of South Carolina at Columbia
Ken Hon. U.S. Geological Survey
Dale Jamieson, University of Colorado at Boulder
Brian Jarvinen, National Hurricane Center
Edward Kaiser, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Jack D. Kartez, University of Southern Maine
Robert Klein, National Association of Insurance Commissioners
Howard Kunreuther, University of Pennsylvania at Philadephia
James F. Lander, University of Colorado at Boulder
Larry Larson, Association of State Floodplain Managers
Eugene L. Lecomte, Institute for Business and Home Safety
Contributing Authors
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Contributing Authors
Michael K. Lindell, Texas A&M University
Rocky Lopes, American Red Cross
George Mader, Spangle Associates
Enrique Maestas, University of Texas at Austin
Robert Martin, University of California at Berkeley
William Martin, ITT Hartford
Peter }. May, University of Washington at Seattle
James McDonald, Texas Tech University
Elaine McReynolds, Federal Emergency Management Agency
Kishor Mehta, Texas Tech University
Mario Mejia-Navarro, Colorado State University
Jerry Mitchell, University of South Carolina at Columbia
Elliott Mittler, University of Wisconsin at Green Bay
Jacquelyn Monday, TLM Associates
Betty Morrow, Florida International University
John Mulady, United Services Automobile Association
John-Pau! Mulilis, Pennsylvania State University at Monaca
Susan Murty, University of Iowa at Iowa City
Mary Fran Myers, University of Colorado at Boulder
Sarah K. Nathe, California Office of Emergency Services
David Neal, University of North Texas
Joanne M. Nigg, University of Delaware
Stuart Nishenko, Federal Emergency Management Agency
Franklin W. Nutter, Reinsurance Association of America
Eric K. Noji, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Charles Nyce, University of Hartford
Paul W. O'Brien, California State University at Stanislaus
Robert Olshansky, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Robert Olson, Robert Olson Associates, Inc.
Philip N. Omi, Colorado State University
Michael }. O'Rourke, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Risa Palm, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Eve Passerini, University of Colorado at Boulder
Edward Pasterick, Federal Emergency Management Agency
Pamela Pate, University of Texas at Austin
Robert Paterson, University of Texas at Austin
Walter Gillis Peacock, Florida International University
Ronald Perry, Arizona State University
William }. Petak, University of Southern California
Jon A. Peterka, Colorado State University
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Vl
Contributing Authors
Brenda Phillips, Texas Woman's University
John C. Pine, Louisiana State University
Rutherford H. Platt, University of Massachusetts at Amherst
Roy S. Popkin, Popkin Associates
Kenneth W. Potter, University of Wisconsin at Madison
George Rogers, Texas A&M University
Richard }. Roth, Jr., California Department of Insurance
Richard }. Roth, Sr., Consultant
Claire B. Rubin, Claire B. Rubin & Associates
David Sample, University of Colorado at Boulder
Paula Schulz, California Office of Emergency Services
Stanley Schumm, Colorado State University
James Schwab, American Planning Association
Michael S. Scott, University of South Carolina at Columbia
William Solecki, Florida State University
John H. Sorensen, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Kenneth R. Stroech, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Richard Stuart, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Craig E. Taylor, National Hazards Management, Inc.
Deborah S. K. Thomas, University of South Carolina at Columbia
John Tiefenbacher, Southwest Texas State University
Kathleen Tierney, University of Delaware
L. Thomas Tobin, Tobin and Associates
Kenneth C. Topping, Cambria Community Services Department
Susan K. Tubbesing, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
Eric VanMarcke, Princeton University
Barbara Vogt, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Dennis Wenger, Texas A&M University
James L. Wescoat, University of Colorado at Boulder
French Wetmore, French & Associates, Ltd.
David Whitney, California State University at Long Beach
Berry Williams, Berry A. Williams & Associates
Leonard T. Wright, University of Colorado at Boulder
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Foreword
HE NATION S FIRST ASSESSMENT of research on
natural hazards got under way in 1972 at the Institute
of Behavioral Sciences of the University of Colorado
at Boulder. It was an interdisciplinary effort, with an
emphasis on the social sciences, funded by the
National Science Foundation and led by geographer
Gilbert F. White and sociologist T. Eugene Haas. The
project involved many graduate students, scholars,
practitioners, and policymakers. Their aim was to as-
sess the nation's knowledge of natural hazards and
disasters, with an emphasis on the social sciences.
Along the way they expected to point out major
needed policy directions for the nation and to inven-
tory future research needs. A summary volume issued
at the completion of the project (White and Haas,
1975) brought the substance of that knowledge
together, analyzed the gaps, and recommended certain
policy changes and numerous research needs. (A retro-
spective look at the impacts of that assessment is
presented in Appendix B.)
Contemporary conversations about how sustain-
able hazards mitigation could result in disaster-
resilient communities began in the early l990s among
. .
V11
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. . .
V111
Foreword
a few individuals who worked in federal agencies and academia. It was
formalized during a workshop in the summer of 1992 in Estes Park,
Colorado. Attended by over five dozen of the nation's leading hazards
experts, the workshop concluded that it was appropriate to move for-
ward with a second assessment of hazards in the United States and that
the unifying theme for the work should be sustainable development.
A subsequent workshop in Boulder, Colorado, in October 1994
brought many of the same people and others together to create a specific
agenda for the second assessment. At that time, members of the nation's
policymaking arena for example, the Subcommittees on Natural Haz-
ards and Risk Analysis in the White House and the Federal Emergency
Management Agency explored the idea of further linking hazards and
sustainability. These discussions and the work that followed from them
have led to the present volume.
The many experts who contributed to this project started by going
to work on the project's formal mission. This was to summarize what is
known in the various fields of science and engineering that is applicable
to natural and related technological hazards, and to make some research
and policy recommendations for the future. The project began with its
feet firmly planted in science and engineering, but it ended in an onto-
logical expression. The single most important contribution that this sec-
ond assessment has to offer is the recommendation for a fundamental
shift in the character of how the nation's citizens, communities, govern-
ments, and businesses conduct themselves in relation to the natural envi-
ronments they occupy. This book calls for and speaks to the specifics
required to shift the national culture in ways that would stop at its gen-
esis the ever-increasing spiral of losses from natural and technological
hazards and disasters. The task will be to create and install "sustainable
hazards mitigation" in the culture of the nation.
Disasters by Design does not stop at summarizing the hazards re-
search findings from the past two decades. Instead, it synthesizes what is
known and proceeds from that synthesis to outline a proposed shift in
direction in research and policy for natural and related technological
hazards in the United States.
This book takes a broad focus and occasionally a somewhat specula
tive tone. It is aimed at a general audience, including policymakers and
practitioners. Scholarly readers will note that there are relatively few
citations to academic work. This is intentional: first, because the logistics
of attempting to cite everything published in the past 20 years would be
overwhelming and would increase the manuscript's length by well over
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Foreword
IX
100 pages. The second reason is that this volume comprises synthesized
statements of what is known, collectively, about hazards and human
coping strategies, which in most cases cannot properly be attributed to a
specific source. As a rough way of pointing interested readers toward
more information, some citations to the published literature are included
at key points in the text. These should not be taken as the authoritative
sources on the topics in question but simply as a starting point for more
intensive reading. Readers who are interested in viewing the full list of
references brought together to support this assessment can find the
bibliography on the World Wide Web home page of the Natural
Hazards Research and Applications Information Center at
http :llwww. Colorado . ecu/hazards .
This volume is one in a series published by the Toseph Henry Press
that stemmed from the second national assessment on natural and re-
lated technological hazards and disasters. The participants in the second
assessment's subgroups were invited to write their own books on special-
ized topics and to have those manuscripts considered for publication as
part of the series. The result of those invitations is several additional
books in the Toseph Henry Press series. The other volumes cover insur-
ance, organized by Howard Kunreuther and Richard T. Roth, Sr. of the
Wharton School; land use, assembled by a team headed by Raymond
Burby of the University of New Oricans; disaster preparedness, response,
and recovery, assembled by Kathleen Tierney of the Disaster Research
Center at the University of Delaware; and a national hazards and risk
assessment, led by Susan Cutter at the University of South Carolina.
Many other written products have and will emerge from the second as-
sessment, but the Toseph Henry Press book series represents the second
assessment's major written products.
The second assessment also resulted in the first new publication se-
ries by the Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Cen-
ter at the University of Colorado at Boulder, since the center was founded
in 1976. The new series is known as the "Natural Hazards Informer." It
is designed to summarize in plain language what is known in focused
areas of knowledge regarding natural and related technological hazards
and disasters. The series is designed to reach local practitioners, and its
publication will begin in early 1999. It will be published several times a
year by the center in a short newsletter-type format and will be dissemi-
nated free to some 15,000 subscribers to the center's newsletter, the
Natural Hazards Observer.
Dennis S. Mileti
Boulder, Colorado
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Acknowledgments
HIS PROJECT WAS FUNDED by the National Science
Foundation under grant number CMS93-12647 with
supporting contributions from the Federal Emergency
Management Agency, the U.S. Environmental Protec-
tion Agency, the U.S. Forest Service, and the U.S. Geo-
logical Survey. The support of these agencies is greatly
appreciated. Only the author, however, is responsible
for the information, analyses, and recommendations
contained in this book. A very special "thank you" is
extended to J. Eleonora Sabadell and William A.
Anderson of the National Science Foundation for
placing their confidence in us to carry out this mis-
sion.
Special appreciation is also extended to the per-
sons and the organizations they represent for the time
and ideas they contributed as members of the project's
advisory panel. Deepest gratitude is expressed to the
following persons:
William A. Anderson, National Science Founda
t~on;
Michael Armstrong, Federal Emergency Manage-
ment Agency;
Xl
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. .
X11
Acknowledgments
Riley Chung, National Institute of Standards and Technology;
Caroline Clarke, National Research Council;
James F. Davis, California Division of Mines and Geology;
Walter Hays, U.S. Geological Survey;
Edward }. Hecker, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers;
William H. Hooke, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration;
Robert Kistner, Colorado Office of Emergency Management;
Richard Krimm, Federal Emergency Management Agency;
Eugene L. Lecomte, Institute for Business and Home Safety;
James Makris, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency;
I. Eleanora Sabadell, National Science Foundation;
James M. Saveland, U.S. Forest Service;
Kenneth R. Stroech, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency;
Randall Uptime, U.S. Geological Survey;
Gilbert F. White, University of Colorado at Boulder; and
Arthur Zeizel, Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Some of the work performed for this assessment was accomplished
by subgroups of people who worked on specific topics. Special apprecia-
tion is extended to those who coordinated the work of the subgroups.
David F. Gillespie, Subgroup on the Interactive Structure
of Risk;
Raymond }. Burby, Subgroup on Land Use;
James P. Heaney and Jon A. Perterka, Subgroup on Engineering;
Susan Cutter, Subgroup on Risks, Losses, and Costs;
John H. Sorensen, Subgroup on Prediction, Forecast, and
Warning;
Kathleen Tierney, Subgroup on Preparedness and Response;
Dennis Wenger, Subgroup on Reconstruction;
Howard Kunreuther, Subgroup on Insurance; and
Michael K. Lindell, Subgroup on Adoption and Implementation.
Many professionals were invited in the latter part of 1997 to review
the first full draft of the manuscript. The warmest regards and greatest
appreciation are extended to the people listed below, who returned their
useful and insightful critiques and recommendations for revision of the
original draft of the manuscript:
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Acknowledgments
. . .
x~
Benigno Aguirre, William A. Anderson, Ken Baechel, Philip R. Berke,
Robert Bolin, Pete Brewster, Neil R. Britton, James Bruce, Louise Com-
fort, Susan L. Cutter, James C. Douglas, Thomas E. Drabek, Russell R.
Dynes, David Etkin, Robert Fletcher, Betsy C. Forrest, David F. Gillespie,
Joseph Golden, Ruby I. Harpst, Janet C. Herrin, Kenneth Hewitt, Charles
W. Howe, Wilfred D. Iwan, Paul Jennings, Steven }. Jensen, Joseph G.
Kimble, Gary A. Kreps, Brett Kriger, Howard Kunreuther, James F.
Lander, Eugene L. Lecomte, George Mader, Peter }. May, Michael }.
McKee, Michael Michalek, William A. Mitchell, Elliott Mittler, Betty
Hearn Morrow, John-Pau! Mulilis, Mary Fran Myers, Eve Passerini,
Dallas Peck, Ray Pena, Roy S. Popkin, E. L. Quarantelli, Richard }. Roth,
Jr., Claire B. Rubin, James Russell, Stanley Schumm, Robert L. Schuster,
Ellen Seidman, Frank H. Thomas, Kathleen Tierney, Susan K. Tubbesing,
James L. Wescoat, Gilbert F. White, John D. Wiener, Ben Wisner, and
Arthur Zeizel.
Appreciation is also extended to the people who reviewed and com-
mented on the revised second review draft of the manuscript. These re-
viewers provided the sharp eyes needed to revise the manuscript into its
final form. They brought a variety of perspectives to that review, includ-
ing national policy, local government, natural science, social science,
engineering, the private sector, and nongovernment organizations. Many
thanks to the following second-draft reviewers:
Daniel Abrams, Michael Armstrong, Mary Carrido, Jack Cermak,
Thomas Drabek, Nicholas Flores, William Hooke, Rocky Lopes, James
Makris, Shirley Mattingly, Joanne M. Nigg, Ann Patton, James W.
Russell, Randy Uptime, and Gilbert F. White.
A very special "thank you" is due JoAnne DeRouen Darlington, who
left Colorado State University to join the project staff at the University of
Colorado at Boulder, to work as a postdoctoral fellow on this assess-
ment. Her substantive contributions are greatly appreciated as well as
her help in providing oversight and leadership for the graduate students
who worked on the assessment.
Warm appreciation also goes to David Morton, who lent his pa-
tience and willingness to serve as a personal librarian to every contribu-
tor to the project.
Finally, literally thousands of pages of original draft text were edited
as part of the process to produce this book. Jacquelyn L. Monday edited
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XIV
Acknowledgments
the manuscript pages in whatever form they arrived, without complaint.
Jacki, you will always have my deepest appreciation for the excellent
work that you provided as an editor and for your substantive contribu-
tions to the text as it emerged over several drafts. Mostly, thank you for
taking this project on as your own and for the relentless commitment
you brought to it.
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Contents
SUMMARY
A SUSTAINABILITY FRAMEWORK FOR NATURAL
AND TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS
Origins and Development of the Current Approach, 18
Moving Beyond Existing Approaches, 24
Principles of Sustainable Hazards Mitigation, 30
Conclusion, 35
1
17
SCENARIOS OF SUSTAINABLE HAZARDS MITIGATION 41
Miami, Florida, 42
Boulder, Colorado, 50
San Francisco, California, 57
Sustainability and Hazards Mitigation, 63
LOSSES, COSTS, AND IMPACTS
Deaths, Injuries, and Dollar Losses, 66
Other Impacts, 90
Hazard Losses by State, 94
Issues in Loss and Impact Measurement, 96
Future Losses, 100
Data Needs, 102
Conclusion, 103
65
xv
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XVI
4 THE INTERACTIVE STRUCTURE OF HAZARD
Systems, 106
The Hazardousness of the Nation, 133
5 INFLUENCES ON THE ADOPTION AND
IMPLEMENTATION OF MITIGATION
Decisionmaking Processes, 136
Social Influences, 144
Economic Factors, 148
Legal Considerations, 149
Other Influences, 152
Conclusion, 154
6 TOOLS FOR SUSTAINABLE HAZARDS MITIGATION
Land-Use Planning and Management, 155
Building Codes and Standards, 161
Insurance, 166
Prediction, Forecast, and Warning, 174
Engineering, 200
Conclusion, 206
PREPAREDNESS, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY
Disasters, 209
Disaster Preparedness, 215
Response, 220
Factors That Influence Preparedness and Response, 226
Recovery and Reconstruction, 229
Conclusions, 239
8 INNOVATIVE PATHS AND NEW DIRECTIONS
New Technology and Approaches, 242
The Research Infrastructure, 255
Education, 258
International Comparisons and Exchanges, 261
Model Communities, 264
Conclusion, 265
Contents
105
135
155
209
241
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Contents
9 GETTING FROM HERE TO THERE
One View of Sustainable Hazards Mitigation in Action, 268
Some Policy and Research Steps That Need to Be Taken, 274
A Final Word, 287
REFERENCES
. .
XVII
267
289
Appendix A: Recommendations for Further Traditional Research 297
Appendix B: Impacts of the 1975 Assessment 315
Appendix C: Putting Knowledge into Practice 327
INDEX
335
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D I BASTE RS
by Design
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