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OCR for page R1
Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
Downstream
Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
Committee on Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research
Water Science and Technology Board
Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources
National Research Council
National Academy Press
Washington, D.C.
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
Support for this project was provided by the Bureau of Reclamation under Cooperative Agreement # 1425-98-FC-40-22700.
Cover: Photo of the Colorado River by David Rubin, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA.
Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
COMMITTEE ON GRAND CANYON MONITORING AND RESEARCH
JAMES L. WESCOAT, JR. (Chair),
University of Colorado, Boulder
TRUDY A. CAMERON,
University of California, Los Angeles
SUZANNE K. FISH,
University of Arizona, Tucson
DAVID FORD,
David Ford Consulting Engineers, Sacramento, California
STEVEN P. GLOSS,
University of Wyoming, Laramie
TIMOTHY K. KRATZ,
University of Wisconsin, Trout Lake Station, North Boulder Junction
WENDELL L. MINCKLEY,
Arizona State University, Tempe
PETER R. WILCOCK,
The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
National Research Council Staff
JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Project Study Director
ANITA A. HALL, Project Assistant
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BOARD
HENRY J. VAUX, JR. (Chair),
University of California, Oakland
CAROL A. JOHNSTON (Vice Chair),
University of Minnesota, Duluth
RICHELLE M. ALLEN-KING,
Washington State University, Pullman
GREGORY B. BAECHER,
University of Maryland, College Park
JOHN S. BOYER,
University of Delaware, Lewes
JOHN BRISCOE,
The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
DENISE FORT,
University of New Mexico, Albuquerque
STEVEN P. GLOSS,
University of Wyoming, Laramie
EVILLE GORHAM,
University of Minnesota, St. Paul
WILLIAM A. JURY,
University of California, Riverside
GARY S. LOGSDON,
Black & Veatch, Cincinnati, Ohio
RICHARD G. LUTHY,
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JOHN W. MORRIS,
J. W. Morris Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
PHILLIP A. PALMER,
DuPont Engineering, Wilmington, Delaware
REBECCA T. PARKIN,
The George Washington University, Washington, D.C.
JOAN B. ROSE,
University of South Florida, St. Petersburg
R. RHODES TRUSSELL,
Montgomery Watson, Pasadena, California
ERIC F. WOOD,
Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
Staff
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Director
CHRIS ELFRING, Senior Staff Officer
LAURA EHLERS, Senior Staff Officer
JEFFREY W. JACOBS, Senior Staff Officer
JEANNE AQUILINO, Administrative Associate
MARK GIBSON, Research Associate
ANITA A. HALL, Administrative Assistant
ELLEN de GUZMAN, Senior Project Assistant
ANIKE JOHNSON, Project Assistant
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair),
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
RICHARD A. CONWAY,
Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston, West Virginia
THOMAS E. GRAEDEL,
Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut
THOMAS J. GRAFF,
Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland, California
EUGENIA KALNAY,
University of Oklahoma, Norman
DEBRA KNOPMAN,
Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C.
KAI N. LEE,
Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts
RICHARD A. MESERVE,
Covington & Burling, Washington, D.C.
BRAD MOONEY, JR.,
J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia
HUGH C. MORRIS,
El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia
H. RONALD PULLIAM,
University of Georgia, Athens
MILTON RUSSELL,
University of Tennessee, Knoxville
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
ANDREW R. SOLOW,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
E-AN ZEN,
University of Maryland, College Park
MARY LOU ZOBACK,
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
Staff
ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director
GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director
JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
Preface
On March 26, 1996, the bypass tubes of Glen Canyon Dam were opened for the first experimental "controlled flood" in the Grand Canyon of the Colorado River, marking a dramatic physical start for an even broader Adaptive Management Program ("Program"). The Program aims to monitor and analyze the effects of dam operations on downstream resources in the Grand Canyon ecosystem and to use that knowledge to recommend to the U.S. Secretary of the Interior, on a continuing basis, adjustments intended to preserve and enhance downstream values.
Responsibility for scientific research and monitoring to support adaptive management rests with the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center ("Center") in Flagstaff, Arizona. During the past two years, the Center has established headquarters and hired staff, worked with stakeholder groups (known as the Adaptive Management Work Group and the Technical Work Group), commissioned a "conceptual model" of the Grand Canyon ecosystem, established protocols for research funding, and let contracts for research and monitoring.
These actions have been guided in part by the Center's 1997 Long-term Strategic Plan (Center, 1997) which underwent initial revisions in 1998. As part of these revisions, the Center arranged for the National Research Council's (NRC) Water Science and Technology Board to review the Strategic Plan. Later in the year, the 1998 Draft Strategic Plan became a source of debate among stakeholder groups, and controversies are still being worked out.
The National Research Council appointed a special committee to assess the Strategic Plan from as many perspectives as seemed relevant to its roles in guiding this important experiment in United States environmental science
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
and policy. This report documents our assessment of the Center's long-term strategic planning for monitoring and research in the Grand Canyon of the Colorado River, and is submitted with appreciation and constructive criticism. The Center's scientists have launched its research programs with energy, intelligence, and commitment. This committee's concerns range from the types of science and monitoring planned for the Grand Canyon, to the uses of scientific findings in the Adaptive Management Program, to the uses of advice from the Adaptive Management Program by the Secretary of the Interior and, ultimately, to the effects of that advice on Grand Canyon resources.
Challenges encountered in the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies (GCES), which preceded the current program, and in other adaptive management programs have special relevance for the Center's efforts. The Adaptive Management Program carries forward twelve years of work by the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies. This National Research Council (NRC) review continues over a decade (1985–1996) of prior NRC reviews of Glen Canyon Environmental Studies programs, the Glen Canyon Dam Environmental Impact Statement, and early plans for long-term monitoring.
Our report is titled Downstream: Adaptive Management of the Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem for three reasons. First, the Program's primary focus is literally on resources "downstream" of Glen Canyon Dam, a focus that remains contested in ways discussed in our report. In a figurative sense, adaptive management requires a "downstream" perspective beginning with hypothesized effects of dam-operation alternatives, followed by monitoring and research to test those hypotheses, and by further adjustments to dam operations. A downstream perspective requires a framework for envisioning ex ante courses of action that may be "adaptive" and for evaluating ex post the classes of outcomes that have or have not been adaptive. Third, ''downstream" alludes to an earlier National Research Council report (1996b) on ecosystem management in the Columbia River basin entitled Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest. Our report is briefer than Upstream, just as the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program is more recent and more geographically focused than the Columbia River program. Nonetheless, the need for probing comparisons of adaptive management experiments underway in different regions of North America is one important conclusion of this report.
Our committee thanks the Center and its staff for their hospitality during site visits and for their open cooperation throughout the review
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
process. The committee expresses special appreciation to David Garrett, the former chief who launched the Center and initiated the National Research Council review; Barry Gold, acting chief of the Center; Ruth Lambert, director of the Socioeconomic and Cultural Resources Programs; Mike Liszewski, director of the Information Technology Program; Ted Melis, director of the Physical Resources Program; Barbara Ralston, director of the Biological Resources Program; and all other Center scientists and staff. We also thank David Wegner, former chief of the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies, for speaking with the committee at its second meeting in Flagstaff, Arizona, in August 1998. As part of their review, committee members consulted with colleagues and stakeholders who offered useful insights and cautions that, collectively, helped guide our observations, evaluations, and recommendations. Anne Colgan, Ernest House, and Ann Huff of the University of Colorado gave helpful advice on the fields of strategic management and evaluation. William Clark, Harvard University; Kai Lee, Williams College; Steve Light, Institute for Agricultural and Trade Policy (formerly of the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources); Roger Pulwarty, NOAA; and John Volkman, Northwest Power Planning Council, generously shared their ideas about adaptive management.
As committee chair, I thank fellow committee members for their spirited contributions and thoughtful deliberation and exchange on interdisciplinary issues, as well as their written contributions to this report. Committee members tried out ideas, advancing some and dropping others as perspectives began to take shape on where the Center stands today and what a "long-term strategic plan" could and should entail.
Our committee owes special thanks to Jeffrey W. Jacobs of the National Research Council—first for directing the study on behalf of the Water Science and Technology Board, and second for his intellectual contributions to the review, especially on issues of water policy and adaptive environmental management. Anita Hall of the Water Science and Technology Board kept project communications, travel, and administration in order. Rhonda Bitterli provided thorough editorial advice on the committee's draft report.
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscripts remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Ellis Cowling, North Carolina State University (Emeritus); Tom Graff, Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland, California; Thomas Haan, Oklahoma State University; Duncan Patten, Arizona State University (Emeritus); Ronald Pulliam, University of Georgia; Jack Schmidt, Utah State University; Daniel Tarlock, Chicago-Kent College of Law; Henry Vaux, University of California, Oakland; John Warme, Colorado School of Mines; and Kenneth Weber, U.S. National Park Service. While the individuals listed above provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.
To all these persons we express our thanks. And to all the scientists and stakeholders concerned with the Grand Canyon—its waters, environment, and cultural significance—we direct this report with the hope that it helps advance the historic experiment in adaptive management that is underway.
James L. Wescoat Jr., Chair
University of Colorado at Boulder
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
Contents
Executive Summary
1
1
Introduction
18
Origins of the Long-Term Strategic Plan
18
Charge to the Committee
24
Complications with the Strategic Plan
26
Methods for Reviewing the Strategic Plan
29
2
The Center's Long-Term Strategic Plan
32
The Center's Strategic Plans
33
Strengths of the Plan
36
Weaknesses and Alternatives
37
Summary
49
3
The Adaptive Management Program
51
Introduction
51
The Emerging Field of Adaptive Management
52
Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
54
Strengths of the Strategic Plans
57
Weaknesses of the Strategic Plans
59
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Downstream: Adaptive Management of Glen Canyon Dam and the Colorado River Ecosystem
4
Ecosystem Monitoring and Science
80
Conceptual Modeling
81
Design and Implementation of a Long-Term Monitoring Plan
82
The Center's Resource Program Areas
86
5
Organization and Resources
125
Organizational Structure and Center Roles in the Adaptive Management Program
126
The Center's Institutional Home
127
The Center's Organizational Structure and Size
129
Budget and Funding Issues
132
6
Summary of Findings and Recommendations
135
Adaptive Management Issues
137
Science Program Issues
138
Organizational and Budget Issues
139
References
141
Appendixes
A
Grand Canyon Protection Act (1992)
157
B
Adaptive Management Work Group Members
164
C
Technical Work Group Members
165
D
Record of Decision (1996)
167
E
Table II-7 Summary Comparison of Alternatives and Impacts
189
F
Economic Literature Relevant to Grand Canyon Management
201
G
Figures
221
H
Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
228
