; and
Board on Physics and Astronomy, National Research Council, HA 562, 2101 Constitution Avenue,
N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418
Copyright 1999 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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COMMITTEE ON GRAVITATIONAL PHYSICS
JAMES B. HARTLE, University of California at Santa Barbara, Chair
ERIC G. ADELBERGER, University of Washington
AB HAY V. ASHTEKAR, Pennsylvania State University
BEVERLY K. BERGER, Oakland University
GARY T. HOROWITZ, University of California at Santa Barbara
PETER F. MICHELSON, Stanford University
RAMESH NARAYAN, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
PETER R. SAULSON, Syracuse University
DAVID N. SPERGEL, Princeton University Observatory
JOSEPH H. TAYLOR, Princeton University
SAUL A. TEUKOLSKY, Cornell University
CLIFFORD M. WILL, Washington University
DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director
ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer
JOEL R. PARRIOTT, Program Officer
. . .
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BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY
ROBERT C. DYNES, University of California at San Diego, Chair
ROBERT C. RICHARDSON, Cornell University, Vice Chair
STEVEN CHU, Stanford University
VAL FITCH, Princeton University
IVAR GIAEVER, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
RICHARD D. HAZELTINE, University of Texas at Austin
JOHN HUCHRA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics
JOHN C. MATHER, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
R.G. HAMISH ROBERTSON, University of Washington
JOSEPH H. TAYLOR, Princeton University
KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, General Motors Research and Development Center
J. ANTHONY TYSON, Lucent Technologies
GEORGE WHITESIDES, Harvard University
DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director
ROBERT L. RIEMER, Associate Director
KEVIN AYLESWORTH, Program Officer
JOEL R. PARRIOTT, Program Officer
NATASHA CASEY, Senior Administrative Associate
GRACE WANG, Senior Project Associate
MICHAEL LU, Project Assistant
V
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COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS,
AND APPLICATIONS
PETER M. BANKS, ERIM International, Inc., Co-chair
W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-chair
WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, University of Pennsylvania
MARSHALL H. COHEN, California Institute of Technology
RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University
JOHN E. ESTES, University of California at Santa Barbara
JERRY P. GOLLUB, Haverford College
MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University
JOHN L. HENNESSY, Stanford University
CAROL M. JANTZEN, Westinghouse Savannah River Company
PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc.
KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota
MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California at Los Angeles
DANIEL KLEPPNER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company
MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania
M. ELISABETH PATE-CORNELL, Stanford University
NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory
CHANG-LIN TIEN, University of California at Berkeley
NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director
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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society
of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the
furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the
authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that
requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce
Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of
the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It
is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the
National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government.
The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at
meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior
achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of
Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of
Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the
examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts
under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional
charter to be an advisor to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify
issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the
Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sci-
ences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the
Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Func-
tioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has
become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the
National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and
the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both
Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are
chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
vim
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Preface
The Committee on Gravitational Physics (COP) was organized by the Na-
tional Research Council's (NRC's) Board on Physics and Astronomy (B PA) as
part of the decadal survey Physics in a New Era. The committee's main charges
were (1) to assess the achievements in gravitational physics over the last decade
and (2) to identify the most promising opportunities for research in the next
decade and describe the resources necessary to realize those opportunities. This
report fulfills those charges.
As is made clear in the report, the field of gravitational physics has signifi-
cant overlaps with astrophysics, elementary-particle physics, and cosmology,
areas that have been or will be assessed by the NRC. Elementary-particle physics
is the subject of a separate volume of the current physics survey, Elementary-
Particle Physics Revealing the Secrets of Energy and Matter (National Acad-
emy Press, Washington, D.C., 1998~. Cosmology is discussed in Cosmology: A
Research Briefing (National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1995~. Astro-
physical phenomena in which gravitation plays a key role were considered in the
NRC study A New Science Strategy for Space Astronomy and Astrophysics (Na-
tional Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997) and will be a part of the NRC's
Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey now under way. Reports with overlapping
content and emphases are to be expected because of emerging interdisciplinary
areas of physics. Naturally, each of these reports makes its recommendations
from the perspective of the subfield of physics involved. This report sets priori-
ties and makes recommendations based on the committee's assessment of the
impact of opportunities for research in gravitational physics.
. .
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. . .
vile
PREFACE
As part of its task, the COP reevaluated the estimates of the event rate for a
number of sources of gravitational waves that might be received by the LIGO
gravitational wave detector in the next decade in the light of current theoretical
and observational understanding. These estimates are reported in the addendum
to Section I of Chapter 3. The discussion given there should be regarded as the
output of the entire committee, but we would be remiss if we did not also ac-
knowledge that the detailed analysis is the work of three of us Ramesh Narayan,
Joseph Taylor, and David Spergel.
The COP was helped in its tasks by input from many sources, some orga-
nized by the committee and some submitted by members of the gravitational
physics community in response to various requests for input. The COP's activi-
ties, in which the BPA staff headed by Don Shapero and Roc Riemer assisted
greatly, are described in Appendix A.
The committee's work was supported by grants from the National Aeronau-
tics and Space Administration, the National Science Foundation, and the U.S.
Department of Energy. We thank them for this support.
James B. Hartle, Chair
Committee on Gravitational Physics
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Acknowledgment of Reviewers
This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse per-
spectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the
National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose
of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will
assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as
possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity,
evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The contents of the review
comments and the draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of
the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their
participation in the review of this report:
Mitchell C. Begelman, University of Colorado,
James E. Failer, University of Colorado,
J. Ross Macdonald, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,
Riley D. Newman, University of California at Irvine.
Kenneth Nordtvedt, Northwest Analysis,
Andrew Eben Strominger, Harvard University,
J. Anthony Tyson, Lucent Technologies,
Robert M. Wald, University of Chicago, and
Edward Witten, Princeton University.
Although the individuals listed above have provided many constructive com-
ments and suggestions, the responsibility for the final content of this report rests
solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
Six
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION, OVERVIEW, AND RECOMMENDATIONS 7
~ ~ < ~ ~ ~ ~,~ ~ `~ ~ c~ ~ ~ ~ `: ~ 7
It Ac~s of the Past Decade, 8
:~:[q Opportun~;~s for the Nc:~t D`~' 12
~ ~ K :0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~t ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~1 4
2 IDEAS AND PHENOMENA OF GENERAL RELATIVITY
Id ~ C-~rLe:~ Relat~, 24
Key Phenom`~a ~n Grav~ Phy$~, 27
3 ACHIEVEMENTS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN
GRAVITATIONAL PHYSICS
I ~G:~;~:! Waves' 32
:~ Black :~--~, 52
~ ~ K ~] ~ ~ ~ t~ ~ ~\ 0~5 ~ ~6 6
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 8 9
APPENDIXES
A Activities of the Committee on Gravitational Physics
B Glossary
x~
24
32
101
104
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