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MODELIN MOB ~ ~ 1 _` \~ MISSIONS Committee to Review EPA;,s Mobile Source Emissions Factor {MOBILE) Model Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources Transportation Research Board National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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NATIONALACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington,D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This project was supported by Grant No. X825773-01-0 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Department of Transportation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda- tions expressed in this publication are those of the authorgs) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-07086-0 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identif y issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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COMMITTEE TO REVIEW EPA'S MOBILE SOURCE EMISSIONS FACTOR (MOBILE) MODEL ARMISTEAD G. RUSSELL (Chair), Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia JOHN C. BAILAR llI, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois MATTHEW J. BARTH, University of California, Riverside, California LAURENCE S. CARETTO, California State University, Northridge, California CARLETON J. HOWARD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado JOHN H. JOHNSON, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, Michigan JOHN F. KOWALCZYK, (retired) Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, Portland, Oregon ALAN C. LLOYD, California Air Resources Board, Sacramento, California MICHAEL R. MORRIS, North Central Texas Council of Governments, Arlington, Texas ALISON K. POLLACK, ENVIRON International Corporation, Novato, California ROBERT F. SAWYER, University of California, Berkeley, California Staff RAYMOND WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering K. JOHN HOLMES, Project Director NANCY HUMPHREY, Senior Staff Office ROBERT CROSSGROVE, Editor MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, ~ nformation Specialist PAMELA FRIEDMAN, Project Assistant CHRISTINE PHILLIPS, Project Assistant Sponsors U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION IV

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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle, Washington DONALD MATTISON (Vice Chair), March of Dimes, White Plains, New York DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas ~NGRID C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia JOHN DOULL, The University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City, Kansas CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California JOHN GERHART, University of California, Berkeley, California J. PAUL OILMAN, Celera Genomics, Rockville, Maryland BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis, California MARK HARWELL, University of Miami, Miami, Florida ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico CAROL HENRY, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia BARBARA HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina JAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario JAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan, Utah MARIO J. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts CHARLES OIMELIA, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland WILLEM F. PASSCHIER, Health Council of the Netherlands KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley, California MARGARET STRAND, Oppenheimer Wolff Donnelly & Bayh, LLP, Washington, D.C. TERRY F. YOSIE, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia Senior Staff JAMES J. REISA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology CAROL A. MACZKA, Senior Program Director for Toxicology and Risk Assessment RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology LEE R. PAULSON, Program Director for Resource Management ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis

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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle, Washington DONALD MATTISON (Vice Chair), March of Dimes, White Plains, New York DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas INGRID C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia JOHN DOULL, The University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City, Kansas CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California JOHN GERHART, University of California, Berkeley, California J. PAUL OILMAN, Celera Genomics, RockviBe, Maryland BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis, California MARK HARWELL, University of Miami, Miami, Florida ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico CAROL HENRY, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia BARBARA HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina JAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario JAMES A. MAcMAHoN, Utah State University, Logan, Utah MARIO J. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts CHARLES O'MELIA, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland WILLEM F. PASSCHIER, Health Council of the Netherlands KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley, California MARGARET STRAND, Oppenheimer Wolff Donnelly & Bayh, LLP, Washington, D.C. TERRY F. YOSIE, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia Senior Staff JAMES J. RETSA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology CAROL A. MACZKA, Senior Program Director for Toxicology and Risk Assessment RAYMOND A.WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology LEE R. PAULSON, Program Director for Resource Management ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis -Vl-

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2000 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE MARTINWACHS (Chair), Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, California JOHN M. SAMUELS (Vice Chair), Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, Virginia ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR. (Executive Director), National Research Council, Washington, D.C. THOMAS F. BARRY, JR., Florida Department of Transportation, Tallahassee, Florida JACK E. BUFFINGTON, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas SARAH C. CAMPBELL, TransManagement, Inc., Washington, D.C. ANNE P. CANBY, Delaware Department of Transportation, Dover, Delaware E. DEAN CARLSON, Kansas Department of Transportation, Topeka, Florida JOANNE F. CASEY, Intermodal Association of North America, Greenbelt, Maryland ROBERT A. FROSH, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts GORMAN GILBERT, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California LESTER A. HOEL, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia H. THOMAS KORNEGAY, Port of Houston Authority, Houston, Texas THOMAS F. LARWIN, San Diego Metropolitan Transit Development Board, San Diego, California BRADLEY L. MALLORY, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania JEFFREY R. MORELAND, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation, Fort Worth, Texas SID MORRISON, Washington State Department of Transportation, Olympia, Washington JOHN P. POORMAN, Capital District Transportation Committee, Albany, New York WAYNE SHACKELFORD, Georgia Department of Transportation, Atlanta (Former Chairman, 1999) CHARLES H. THOMPSON, Wisconsin Department of Transportation, Madison, Wisconsin MICHAEL S. TOWNES, Transportation District Commission of Hampton Roads, Hampton, Virginia THOMAS R. WARNE, Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake City, Utah ARNOLD F. WELLMAN, JR., Corporate Public Affairs, United Parcel Service, Washington, D.C. . ~ vll-

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JAMES A. WILDING, Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, Alexandria, Virginia M. GORDONWOLMAN, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland DAVID N. WORMLEY, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania .. . -v`~-

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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville RICHARDA. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston, West Virginia LYNN GOLDMAN, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut THOMAS J. GRAFF, Environmental Defense, Oakland, California EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, DC BRAD MOONEY, J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia HUGH C. MORRIS, E1 Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens MILTON RUSSELL, Joint Institute for Energy and Environment and University of Tennessee (Emeritus), Knoxville ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ANDREW R. SOLOW, WOODS Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts E-An Zen, University of Maryland, College Park MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menio Park, California Staff ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer DAVID FEARY, Scientific Reports Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst -`x-

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OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Research Management and Peer Review Practice (2000) Scientific Frontiers in Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2000) Copper in Drinking Water (2000) Ecological Indicators for the Nation (2000) Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999) Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999) Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I. Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio (19981; II. Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio (1999) Ozone-Forming Potential of Reformulated Gasoline (1999) Risk-Based Waste Classification in California (1999) Arsenic in Drinking Water (1999) Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (1998) The National Research Council's Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997) Toxicologic Assessment ofthe Army's Zinc Cadmium Sulfide Dispersion Tests (1997) Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996) Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996) Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995) Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995) Biologic Markers (5 reports, 1989- 1995) Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 reports, 1994- 1995) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994) Ranking Hazardous Waste Sites for Remedial Action (1994) Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993) Issues in Risk Assessment (1993) Setting Priorities for Land Conservation (1993) Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993) Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992) Hazardous Materials on the Public Lands (1992) Science and the National Parks (1992) Animals as Sentinels of Environmental Health Hazards (1991) Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program, Volumes I-IV (1991-1993) Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991) Monitoring Human Tissues for Toxic Substances (1991) Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991) Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990) Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academy Press (8009 624-6242 or (2029 334-3313 www.rtap.edu X

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Preface MOTOR VEHICLES are the major sources of air pollutant emissions in U.S. cities. The constituents of those emissions can be harmful to human health and the envi- ronment, and also are responsible for the formation of other harmful compounds, such as ozone and particulate matter. Effectively managing air pollution problems depend critically on having accurate automotive emissions estimates. In the United States (outside of California), the Mobile Source Emissions Factor (NIOBILE) Model has been at the heart of this process. MOBILE develops emis- sions factors that, along with information on vehicle activity, are used to estimate emissions inventories for on-road mobile sources. Further, MOBILE is used to ad- just those emissions factors to account for the impact of controls, and to forecast how emissions will change in the future and the effectiveness of control programs. Studies of the MOBILE model suggest that its ability to accurately assess the effectiveness of various very expensive programs, such as the oxygenated fuels pro- gram and inspection and maintenance, is poor. Because of the model's importance in assessing air-quality control programs and because of concerns about weak- nesses in the accuracy and reliability of the model, Congress asked the National Academy of Sciences to review the MOBILE model. The National Research Coun- cil's Committee to Review EPA's Mobile-Source Emissions Factor Model was formed in response to that request. The task for the committee was to review and evaluate the MOBILE model. Specifically, it was to consider the adequacy of the model's input data, assumptions, structure, and results for mobile-source emis- sions estimation, and recommend ways to improve the reliability of the model. Many individuals assisted the committee by providing information on the sources of emissions and emissions modeling techniques addressed in this report. I gratefully acknowledge Mark Carlock, California Air Resources Board; Thomas Darlington, Air Improvement Resources Inc.; Axel Friedrich, German Federal X' j

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-X;;- PREFACE Environmental Agency; Eric Fujita, Desert Research Institute; Richard Gibbs, New York Department of Environmental Conservation; Randall Guensler, Georgia In- stitute of Technology; Jose Luis Jimenez, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Charles Schleyer, Mobil Oil; Joel Schwartz, California Inspection and Maintenance Review Committee; and Thomas Wenzel, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley Na- tional Laboratory. I also thank Philip Lorang, Lois Platte, and John White from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Richard Schoeneberg from the U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration for providing in- formation to the committee. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their di- verse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that assist the NRC in making the pub- lished report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. The committee wishes to thank the following individu- als for their participation in the review of this report: Robert Dulla, Sierra Re- search, Inc.; Robert Frosch, Harvard University; Eric Fujita, Desert Research Insti- tute; Thomas Graedel, Yale University; Randall Guensler, Georgia Institute of Technology; Winston Harrington, Resources for the Future; David Lax, American Petroleum Institute; Frederick Lurmann, Sonoma Technology, Inc.; John McTague, Ford Motor Company (retired); and Deborah Niemeier, University of California, Davis. The individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions. It must be emphasized, however, that responsibility for the final con- tent of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the NRC. I am also grateful for the assistance of the NRC staff in the preparation of this report. K. John Holmes was key in preparing this report in his role as project di- rector. The committee also acknowledges Raymond Wassel, senior program direc- tor of environmental sciences and engineering in the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology. We also thank the other staff members contributing to this report, including Robert Hamilton, executive director of the Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources; James Reisa, director of the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology; Robert Crossgrove, editor; Nancy Humphrey, senior program director with the Transportation Research Council; and Pamela Friedman, Christine Phillips, Tracie Holty, and Ruth Danoff, project assis- tants. Finally, I would like to thank all the members of the committee for their exper- tise and dedicated effort throughout the study. Armistead G. Russell, Ph.D. Chair, Committee to Review EPA's Mobile Source Emissions Factor (MOBILE) Model

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 OVERVIEW OF M OBILE-SOURCE EMISSIONS 15 Air-Quality Protection, 16 Estimating Emissions from Mobile Sources, 20 Legislative and Regulatory Initiatives, 28 Committee's Charge and How it Originated, 31 Report Structure, 32 2 USES OF M OBILE IN AIR-QUALITY~LANAGEMENT Future Mobile-Source Emissions-Modeling Issues, 34 Modeling Air Quality: An Interdisciplinary Endeavor, 35 Uses of MOBILE Model in Policy Decision-Making, 46 Summary of Policy Implications and Recommendations, 59 3. TECHNICALISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE M OBILE MODEL History and Status of the MOBILE Model, 61 Federal Advisory Committee Act Process and Public Outreach, 68 Related Models, 69 Previous Reviews of MOBILE, 75 High Emitters, 77 Driving-Cycle Issues, 80 Start Emissions, 88 In-Use Deterioration, 91 Inspection and Maintenance Issues, 94 ~. -x'''- 33 61

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-X;V- CONTENTS Air Conditioning Effects, 104 Evaporative Emissions, 107 Fuel Effects, 109 Exhaust Emissions Temperature-Correction Factors, 116 Heavy-Duty Vehicle Emissions, 118 Particulate Emissions, 122 Fleet Characterization, 126 Summary and Recommendations, 127 4 MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND EVALUATION Definition of Terms, 136 Types and Sources of Uncertainty and Error, 138 Previous MOBILE Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies, 147 Why Uncertainty Analyses Are Needed, 149 Introduction to Evaluation, 150 MOBILE's Sensitivity to Variation in Driving and Starts, 151 State Emissions Inspection Testing, 153 Remote Sensing, 155 Roadside Inspection, 156 Ambient Air-Quality Monitoring and Modeling, 157 Tunnel Studies, 159 Chemical-Mass Balance, 161 Fuel-Based Approach to Emissions Analysis, 162 Summary of Findings and Recommendations, 164 ALTERNATIVE MOBILE-SOURCE EMISSIONS MODELING 135 TECHNIQUES 167 California Air Resources Board Motor-Vehicle Emissions Inventory Suite, 167 Mobile-Source Emissions Modeling in the Federal Republic of Germany, 171 Fuel-Based Emissions Inventories, 176 Modal and Instantaneous Emissions Modeling, 178 Integration of Emission Models with Transportation Models, 184 Summary, 195 6 A TOOLKIT OF FUTURE EMISSIONS INVENTORY MODELS Review of MOBILE's Uses and Shortcomings, 198 Development of a Modeling Toolkit, 199 Guidance Documentation, 206 Summary of Policy and Institutional Issues, 207 ....... 197

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CONTENTS -XV- REFERENCES GLossARY 210 -eeeeeeeeeeee~ en 226 APPENDIX A Biographical Information on the Committee to Review EPA's Mobile Source Emissions Factor MOBILE) Model e-eee-ee~ evens APPENDIX B Acronyms and Names Used for Classifying Organic Compounds eves en ewe ... 235 238

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Modeling Mobile-Source Emissions

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