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Global Change
Ecosystems Research
Ecosystems Panel
Oversight Group for the Ecosystems Panel
National Research Council
National Academy Press
Washington, n.c
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject ofthis report was approved by the Governing
Board ofthe National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils
of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the
Institute of Medicine. The members ofthe committee responsible for the report were
chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This project was supported by Contract No.20-DKNA-7-90052 between the National
Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Commerce, and was supported by
Grant No. OCE-9800841 from the National Science Foundation. Any opinions,
findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of
the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies
that provided support for this project.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-07148-8
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Ave., NW
Box 285
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Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
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National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the
furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the
authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that
requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.
Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the
National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is
autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National
Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National
Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs,
encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr.
William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to
secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given
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education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916
to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of
furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with
general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating
agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering
in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering
communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of
Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman,
respectively, of the National Research Council.
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ECOSYSTEMS PANEL
PAUL G. RISSER (Chair9, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon
JEANNE N. CLARKE, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona
VIRGINIA DALE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee
CHRISTOPHER FIELD, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford,
California
WILLIAM M. LEWIS, JR., University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
JANE LUBCHENCO, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon
MICHAEL LYNCH, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon
JAMES I. MCCARTHY, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
WALTER C. OECHEL, San Diego State University, San Diego, California
DAVID S. SCHIMEL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder
Colorado
DANIEL S. SIMBERLOFF, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee
ROBERT H. SOCOLOW, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey
MONICA TURNER, University of Wisconsin-Madison
SUSAN USTIN, University of California, Davis, California
Stay
DAVID ]. POLICANSKY, Project Director
LEE PAULSON, Editor
JAMIE YOUNG, Research Associate
LEAH PROBST, Senior Project Assistant
v
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OVERSIGHT GROUP FOR THE ECOSYSTEMS PANEL
GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle
MICHAEL T. CLEGG, University of California, Riverside
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, University of Virginia, Charlottesville
T. KENT KIRK, University of Wisconsin, Madison
PAMELA MATSON, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California
Staff
WARREN R. MUIR, Executive Director
Al
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Acknowledgments
THIS report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures
approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this
independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist
the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure
that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and
responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manu-
script remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process.
We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review
of this report:
Stephen Carpenter, University of Wisconsin-Madison
F. Stuart Chapin, Ill, University of Alaska Fairbanks
James Galloway, University of Virginia
Pamela Matson, Stanford University
Rosamond Naylor, Stanford University
Gordon Orians, University of Washington
William Schlesinger, Duke University
Fred Wendorf, Southern Methodist University
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive
comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or
recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its
release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Paine, University
of Washington, appointed by the Oversight Group for the Ecosystems Panel,
. .
V11
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ACKNOWLEGMENTS
who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of
this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that
all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final
content ofthis report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the NRC.
The Ecosystems Panel is also "rate fuT to the workshop participants,
particularly the presenters and responders, for their thoughtful and construc-
tive contributions. They are listed in the Appendix.
. . .
v'''
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1
TN TROD UC TION
The USGCRP, 5
The National Research Council Study, 6
2 DEFINITIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CHANGE
THE SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS
Conceptual Model, ~ ~
Criteria for Identifying the Questions, 15
4 THE PANEL'S ADVICE TO THE USGCRP
Cycles, 18
Habitat: Land Use and Land Cover, 25
Changed Biotic Mix, 3
Implementation, 36
REFERENCES
APPENDIX: PARTICIPANTS IN ECOSYSTEM PANEL'S
WORKSHOP
IX
1
5
8
11
16
38
47
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G/o~d/ Change
Ecosystems ~esearr~h
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