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Page i
The Advanced Technology Program: Assessing Outcomes
CHARLES W. WESSNER, EDITOR
Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy
Policy and Global Affairs
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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Page ii
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C.
20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. 50SBNB9C1080 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number
0-309-07410-X
Limited copies are available from Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy, National Research Council, 1055 Thomas Jefferson Street, N.W., Suite 2014, Washington, D.C. 20007; 202-334-2200.
Additional copies of this report are available from
National Academy Press
,
2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.
, Lockbox 285,
Washington, D.C.
20055
;
(800) 624-6242
or
(202) 334-3313
(in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet,
http://www.nap.edu
.
Printed in the United States of America
Copyright
2001
by the
National Academy of Sciences
. All rights reserved.
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Page iii
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Medicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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Page iv
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Page v
Steering Committee for Government-Industry Partnerships for the Development of New Technologies *
Gordon Moore,
Chair
Chairman Emeritus
Intel Corporation
M. Kathy Behrens
Managing Partner
Robertson Stephens Investment Management and STEP Board
Michael Borrus
Managing Director
The Petkevich Group, LLC
Iain M. Cockburn
Professor of Finance and Economics
Boston University
Kenneth Flamm
Dean Rusk Chair in International Affairs
LBJ School of Public Affairs University of Texas at Austin
James F. Gibbons
Professor of Engineering
Stanford University
W. Clark McFadden
Partner
Dewey Ballantine
Burton J. McMurtry
General Partner
Technology Venture Investors
William J. Spencer,
Vice-Chair
Chairman Emeritus
SEMATECH and STEP Board
Mark B. Myers
Senior Vice-President, retired
Xerox Corporation and STEP Board
Richard Nelson
George Blumenthal Professor of International and Public Affairs
Columbia University
Edward E. Penhoet
Dean,
School of Public Health University of California at Berkeley and STEP Board
Charles Trimble
Vice-Chairman
Trimble Navigation
John P. Walker
Chairman
and
Chief Executive Officer
Axys Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
Patrick Windham
President,
Windham Consulting;
and
Lecturer,
Stanford University
* As of February 2001.
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Page vi
Project Staff *
Charles W. Wessner
Study Director
Duncan Brown
Consultant
McAlister T. Clabaugh
Program Associate
David E. Dierksheide
Program Associate
Contributors **
David Austin
Resources for the Future
Alan P. Balutis
*
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Tayler H. Bingham
Research Triangle Institute
Jeffrey H. Dyer
Brigham Young University
Maryann P. Feldman
Johns Hopkins University
Maryellen R. Kelley
*
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Barbara Lambis
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Albert N. Link
University of North Carolina at Greensboro
Molly Macauley
Resources for the Future
Benjamin C. Powell
University of Pennsylvania
Rosalie Ruegg
Technology Impact Assessment (TIA) Consulting
*As of February 2001.
**Biographies of the contributors are included in
Annex B.
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Page vii
For the National Research Council (NRC), this project was overseen by the Board on Science, Technology and Economic Policy (STEP), a standing board of the NRC established by the National Academies of Sciences and Engineering and the Institute of Medicine in 1991. The mandate of the STEP Board is to integrate understanding of scientific, technological, and economic elements in the formulation of national policies to promote the economic well-being of the United States. A distinctive characteristic of STEP's approach is its frequent interactions with public and private-sector decision makers. STEP bridges the disciplines of business management, engineering, economics, and the social sciences to bring diverse expertise to bear on pressing public policy questions. The members of the STEP Board
* and the NRC staff are listed below:
Dale Jorgenson,
Chair
Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor of Economics
Harvard University
M. Kathy Behrens
Managing Partner
Robertson Stephens Investment Management
Vinton G. Cerf
Senior Vice-President
WorldCom
Bronwyn Hall
Professor of Economics
University of California at Berkeley
James Heckman
Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics
University of Chicago
Ralph Landau
Consulting Professor of Economics
Stanford University
Richard Levin
President
Yale University
William J. Spencer,
Vice-Chair
Chairman Emeritus
SEMATECH
David T. Morgenthaler
Founding Partner
Morgenthaler
Mark B. Myers
Senior Vice-President, retired
Xerox Corporation
Roger Noll
Morris M. Doyle Centennial Professor of Economics
Stanford University
Edward E. Penhoet
Dean,
School of Public Health University of California at Berkeley
William Raduchel
Chief Technology Officer
AOL Time Warner
Alan Wm. Wolff
Managing Partner
Dewey Ballantine
*As of February 2001.
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Page viii
STEP Staff *
Stephen A. Merrill
Executive Director
Philip Aspden
Senior Program Officer
Camille M. Collett
Program Associate
David E. Dierksheide
Program Associate
Charles W. Wessner
Program Director
Craig M. Schultz
Research Associate
McAlister T. Clabaugh
Program Associate
*As of February 2001.
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Page ix
National Research Council Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy
Sponsors
The National Research Council gratefully acknowledges the support of the following sponsors:
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Office of the Director, Defense Research & Engineering
National Science Foundation
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Naval Research
National Institutes of Health
National Institute of Standards and Technology
Sandia National Laboratories
Electric Power Research Institute
International Business Machines
Kulicke and Soffa Industries
Merck and Company
Milliken Industries
Motorola
Nortel
Proctor and Gamble
Silicon Valley Group, Incorporated
Advanced Micro Devices
Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the project sponsors.
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Page x
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Page xi
Contents
FOREWORD
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3
I.
PREFACE
11
II.
INTRODUCTION
25
A.
Background
25
B.
Overview of the Papers
59
C.
Summary of Symposium Proceedings
63
III.
FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
85
IV.
PROCEEDINGS
Welcome
Charles Wessner, National Research Council
101
Introduction to the Symposium
Clark McFadden, Dewey Ballantine
103
Panel I:
The ATP Objective: Addressing the Financing Gap for
Enabling Technologies
Moderator: Charles Trimble, Trimble Navigation
105
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Page xii
The View from Industry: A Start-up's Perspective
Elizabeth Downing, 3D Technology Laboratories
105
The Venture Capital Perspective
David Morgenthaler, Morgenthaler Venture Capital
108
Lowering Hurdle Rates for New Technologies
Kathleen Kingscott, International Business Machines Corporation
112
Panel II:
ATP's Assessment Program
Moderator: David Goldston, Office of Congressman Sherwood Boehlert
117
Delivering Public Benefits with Private-Sector
Efficiency Through the ATP
Rosalie Ruegg, Advanced Technology Program
117
Perspectives on Program Evaluation
Irwin Feller, Pennsylvania State University
123
Discussants:
Nicholas Vonortas, George Washington University James Turner, House Science Committee
126
Panel III:
Stimulating R&D Investment
Moderator: David Finifter, College of William & Mary
131
Assessing the ATP: Halo Effects and Added Value
Maryann Feldman, Johns Hopkins University
131
Cheap Gas?: Joint Ventures and Fuel Efficiency
Mark A. Ehlen, National Institute of Standards and Technology
136
Design Freedoms and Enhanced Value
Larry Rhoades, Extrude Hone Corporation
140
Panel IV:
Assessing Progress: Case Study Cluster
Moderator: David Austin, Resources for the Future
145
Xeno-Organ Transplant
David Ayares, PPL Therapeutics, Inc.
146
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Page xiii
Extending Case Study Methodologies For Technology
Policy Evaluation
Todd A. Watkins, Lehigh University
149
Economic Returns to New Medical Technologies
Tayler Bingham, Research Triangle Institute
154
Discussant: Henry Kelly, White House Office of Science and
Technology Policy
157
Panel V:
Assessing the ATP Assessment Program:
Challenges and Policy Issues
Moderator: Charles Wessner, National Research Council
160
Panelists:
John Yochelson, Council on Competitiveness
Maryann Feldman, Johns Hopkins University
William Bonvillian, Office of Senator Joseph Lieberman
David Goldston, Office of Congressman Sherwood Boehlert
Todd A. Watkins, Lehigh University
160
Concluding Remarks
Charles Wessner, National Research Council
169
Boxes within the Summary Report
Box A.
Partnerships Reviewed by the Government-Industry
Partnerships Study
18
Box B.
Principal Federal Legislation Related to Cooperative Technology Programs
27
Box C.
R&D Programs: The Challenge for Policymakers
34
Box D.
What is the Advanced Technology Program?
40
Box E.
Critical Characteristics of the Advanced Technology Program
41
Box F.
GAO Reviews of the ATP
45
Box G.
“Picking Winners and Losers” and the Advanced Technology Program
51
Box H.
Why Should Government Fund Promising Technologies?
65
Box I.
A Venture Capitalist's Perspective on the ATP
66
Box J.
Advancing the Art of Program Assessment
68
V.
RESEARCH PAPERS
The ATP Competition Structure
Alan P. Balutis and Barbara Lambis, National Institute of Standards and Technology
175
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Page xiv
Leveraging Research and Development: The Impact of the
Advanced Technology Program
Maryann P. Feldman, Johns Hopkins University, and Maryellen R. Kelley, National Institute of Standards and Technology
189
Estimating Economic Benefits from ATP Funding of
New Medical Technologies
Tayler H. Bingham, Research Triangle Institute
211
Enhanced R&D Efficiency in an ATP-funded Joint Venture
Albert N. Link, University of North Carolina at Greensboro
223
Estimating Future Benefits from ATP Funding of Digital
Data Storage
David Austin and Molly Macauley, Resources for the Future
239
Perspectives on the Determinants of Success in ATP-sponsored
R&D Joint Ventures: The Views of Participants
Jeffrey H. Dyer, Brigham Young University, and Benjamin C. Powell, University of Pennsylvania
249
Taking a Step Back: An Early Results Overview of Fifty ATP Awards
Rosalie Ruegg, Technology Impact Assessment (TIA) Consulting
259
VI.
ANNEX
A.
Authorizing Legislation for the Advanced Technology
Program
281
B.
Biographies of Contributors
287
C.
Participants List
25 April 2000 Conference
295
D.
Internal and External Reviews of the ATP, Analyses
Commissioned by the Office of Economic Assessment
299
E.
Bibliography
303
