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Evaluating Vehicle Emissions
Inspection and
Maintenance Programs
Committee on Vehicle Emission
Inspection and Maintenance Programs
Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology
Division on Earth and Life Studies
Transportation Research Board
National Research Council
NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils
of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the
Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were
chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This project was supported by Cooperative Agreement CX 827224-01-0, between the
National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any
opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are
those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or
agencies that provided support for this project.
Library of Congress Control Number 2001096913
International Standard Book Number 0-309-07446-0
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Ave., NW
Box 285
Washington, DC 20055
800-624-6242
202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area)
http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights resewed.
Printed in the United States of America
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National Academy of Sciences
National Academy of Engineering
Institute of Meclicine
National Research Council
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of
distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance
of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the
charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to
advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is
president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the
National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is
autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National
Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National
Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs,
encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr.
Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to
secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given
to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal
government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and
education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916
to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of
furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with
general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating
agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in
providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities.
The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr.
Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the
National Research Council.
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COMMITTEE ON VEHICLE EMISSION INSPECTION AND
MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS
Members
RALPH J. CICERONE fChair), University of Califomia, Irvine, Califomia
DAVID T. ALLEN (Vice Chair9, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas
MATTHEW J. BARTH, University of Califomia, Riverside, Califomia
HUGH ELLIS, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
GERALD GALLAGHER, J Gallagher and Associates, Inc., Englewood, Colorado
DEBORAH GORDON, Transportation Consultant, Los Angeles, California
ROBERT HARLEY, University of Califomia, Berkeley, California
HAROLD HASKEW, Harold Haskew and Associates, Inc., Milford, Michigan
DOUGLAS R. LAWSON, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado
VIRGINIA MCCONNEEE, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C.
ALISON K. POLLACK, ENVIRON International Corporation, Novato, Califomia
ROBERT SLOTT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
Project Staff
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer
RAYMOND WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and
~ . .
engmeenng
NANCY HUMPHREY, Senior Staff Officer
CAY BUTLER, Editor
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Editor
MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, Information Specialist
RAMYA CHARI, Project Assistant
PAMELA FRIEDMAN, Project Assistant
Sponsor
U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
v
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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
Members
GORDON ORIANS (Chair9, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
JOHN Douse (Vice Chair9, University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City,
Kansas
DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas
INGRID C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
THOMAS BURKE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
WIELIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia
CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California
J. PAUL OILMAN, Celera Genomics, Rockville, Maryland
DANIEL S. GREENBAUM, Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts
BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis, California
ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New
Mexico
CAROL HENRY, American Chemistry Council, Arlington, Virginia
ROBERT HUGGETT, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan
JAMES H. JOHNSON, Howard University, Washington, D.C.
JAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin
DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario
JAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan, Utah
WILLEM F. PASSCHIER, Health Council of the Netherlands, The Hague
ANN POWERS, Pace University School of Law, White Plains, New York
LOUISE M. RYAN, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts
KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley, California
LISA SPEER, Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York
Senior *taffy
JAMES J. REISA, Director
DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied
Ecology
RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and
~ . .
~ng~neenng
KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology
ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis
K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer
RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Managing Editor
Al
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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD
2000 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE
JOHN M. SAMUELS (Chair), Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, Virginia
THOMAS R. WARNE ~ Vice Chair), Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake
City, Utah
ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR. (Executive Director), National Research Council,
Washington, D.C.
WILLIAM D. ANKNER, Rhode Island Dept. of Transportation, Providence, Rhode
Island
THOMAS F. BARRY, JR., Florida Department of Transportation, Tallahassee, Florida
JACK E. BUFFINGTON, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas
SARAH C. CAMPBELL, TransManagement, Inc., Washington, D.C.
E. DEAN CARLSON, Kansas Department of Transportation, Topeka, Kansas
JOANNE CASEY, Intermodal Association of North Amenca, Greenbelt, Maryland
JAMES C. CODELL III, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort, Kentucky
JOHN L. CRAIG, Nebraska Depot lenient of Roads, Lincoln, Nebraska
ROBERT A. FROSCH, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
GORMAN GILBERT, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma
GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
LESTER A. HOEL, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia
H. THOMAS KORNEGAY, Port of Houston Authority, Houston, Texas
BRADLEY L. MALLORY, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, Harrisburg,
Pennsylvania
MICHAEL D. MEYER, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia
JEFF P. MORALES, California Department of Transportation, Sacramento, California
JEFFREY R. MORELAND, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway, Fort Worth, Texas
JOHN P. POORMAN, Capital District Transportation Committee, Albany, New York
CATHERINE L. ROSS, Georgia Regional Transportation Agency, Atlanta, Georgia
WAYNE SHACKELFORD, Gresham Smith & Partners, Alpharetta, Georgia
PAUL P. SKOUTELAS, Port Authority of Allegheny County, Pittsburgh,
Pennsylvania
MICHAEL S. TOWNES, Transportation District Commission of Hampton Roads,
Hampton, Virginia
MARTIN WACHS, University of California, Berkeley, California
MICHAEL W. WICKHAM, Roadway Express, Inc., Akron, Ohio
JAMES A. WILDING, Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, Washington,
D.C.
M. GORDON WOLMAN, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
. .
V11
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OTHER REPORTS OF THE
BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY
Arsenic in Drinking Water: 2001 Update (2001)
Compensating for Wetland Losses Under the Clean Water Act (2001 ~
A Risk-Management Strategy for PCB-Contaminated Sediments (2001)
Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury (2000)
Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Research-
Management and Peer-Review Practices (2000)
Scientific Frontiers in Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2000)
Modeling Mobile-Source Emissions (2000)
Toxicological Risks of Selected Flame-Retardant Chemicals (2000)
Copper in Drinking Water (2000)
Ecological Indicators for the Nation (2000)
Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999)
Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999)
Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I. Immediate Priorities and a
Long-Range Research Portfolio (1998~; II. Evaluating Research Progress and
Updating the Portfolio (1999~; III. Early Research Progress (2001)
Ozone-Forming Potential of Reformulated Gasoline (1999)
Risk-Based Waste Classification in California (1999)
Arsenic in Drinking Water (1999)
Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (1998)
The National Research Council's Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years
(1997)
Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996)
Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996)
Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995)
Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995)
Biologic Markers (5 reports, 1989-1995)
Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 reports,
1994-1995)
Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994)
Ranking Hazardous Waste Sites for Remedial Action (1994)
Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993)
Setting Priorities for Land Conservation (1993)
Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993)
Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992)
Science and the National Parks (1992)
Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program,
Volumes I-IV (1991 - 1993)
Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991)
. . .
v'~z
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Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991)
Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990)
Copies of these reports may be orderedfrom
the National Academy Press
(6800) 624-6242
(202) 334-3313
www.nap.edu
IX
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEW PARTICIPANTS
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures
approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this
independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist
the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure
that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and
responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft
manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative
process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this
report:
Thomas Austin, Sierra Research, Inc.
Robert Frosch, Harvard University
Jay Gordon, Gordon-Darby, Inc.
Thomas Hubbard, University of Chicago
Roland Hwang, Natural Resources Defense Council
Roberta J. Nichols, Ford Motor Company (retired)
Robert Sawyer, University of California, Berkeley
foe! Schwartz, Reason Public Policy Institute
Donald H. Stedman, University of Denver
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive
comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or
recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its
release. The review of this report was overseen by Thomas Graedel, Yale
University, and Richard Goody, Harvard University. Appointed by the
National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an
independent examination of this report was earned out in accordance with
institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully
considered. Responsibility for the final content ofthis report rests entirely with
the authoring committee and the institution.
x
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Preface
Controlling motor vehicle emissions is important for improving air quality on
urban, regional, and national scales. In response, vehicle emissions standards
over the past 3 5 years have become more stringent in an effort to reduce these
emissions. Vehicle emissions inspection and maintenance (~/M) programs
have been implemented in areas with air-quality problems to ensure that the
emissions-controT systems developed in response to these more stringent
standards remain operating throughout a vehicle's lifetime.
Studies of I/M programs have shown that these programs have not been
as effective as originally thought. Because of I/M's role in reducing emissions
from motor vehicles and concerns about its effectiveness, Congress requested
the National Academy of Sciences to review these programs. The National
Research Council's (NRC) Committee on Vehicle Emission Inspection and
Maintenance Programs was formed in response to that request. Specifically,
the committee was charged with assessing the effectiveness of I/M programs,
identifying criteria and methodologies for their evaluation, recommending
improvements to these programs, and identifying research needs.
Many individuals assisted the committee by providing information related
to issues addressed in this report. 1: gratefully acknowledge David Amlin,
California Bureau of Automotive Repair; Thomas Austin, Sierra Research,
Inc.; Thomas Cackette, California Air Resources Board; Lee Cook, EPA
Office of Transportation and Air Quality; Paul Jacobs, California Air Re-
sources Board; Scott Lee, EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality;
lames Lindner, EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality; Michael
Xl
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Preface
Rodgers, Georgia institute of Technology; Robert Sawyer, University of
California, Berkeley; Hue] Scherrer, University of Minnesota; Joel Schwartz,
Reason Public Policy Institute; Donald Stedman, University of Denver; and
Thomas Wenzel, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory.
The committee was ably assisted by K. John Holmes in his role as project
director. The committee also acknowledges Raymond Wassel, senior program
director of environmental sciences and engineering in the Board on Environ-
mental Studies and Toxicology. We also thank the other staffmembers who
contributed to this report, including Warren Muir, executive director of the
Division on Earth and Life Studies; lames Reisa, director of the Board on
Environmental Studies and Toxicology; Nancy Humphrey, senior staffofficer
with theTransportation Research Board; Cay Butler, editor; Ruth Crossgrove,
managing editor; Mirsada KaraTic-Loncarevic, information specialist; and
Ramya Chari and Pamela Friedman, project assistants.
Finally, ~ would like to thank all the members ofthe committee for their
expertise and dedicated effort throughout the study.
Ralph I. Cicerone, Ph.D.
Chair, Committee on Vehicle Emission
Inspection and Maintenance Programs
x'`
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Contents
SUMMARY
1 MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS AND REGULATION
The Committee's Charge and How It Originated, 17
Committee's Response to the Charge Report Contents, 18
Air Pollutants Emitted By Mobile Sources, 19
Vehicle Types and Standards, 23
Distribution of Vehicle Emissions, 30
Overview of Vehicle I/M Programs, 37
Evolving Issues Affecting I/M in the Future, 40
Summary, 44
2 VEHICLE EMISSIONS-CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES
Overview, 47
Engine Controls, 48
Evaporative Controls, 52
OBD Systems, 55
Summary, 56
3 VEHICLE INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE
PROGRAMS ........................................
I/M Program Network Types, 57
Vehicle-Emissions Testing, 60
x'`'
1
..... 17
.... 46
57
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Contents
Other Program Elements Addressing Testing and Repairs, 69
Effect of Current I/M Programs on Vehicle Emissions, 74
Summary, 86
4 EMERGING EMISSIONS TESTING TECHNOLOGIES
Motor Vehicle Profiling, 90
On-Board Diagnostics, 92
Remote Sensing, 103
Alternative Approaches for Controlling Lifetime Emissions, ~ ~ 5
Summary, ~ 15
90
ESTIMATING INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE
EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS USING THE MOBILE
MODEL .. eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee~eeeeeeae..ee.. 118
Use of MOBILE in Regulatory Applications, 11 ~
Model Predictions Compared with Program Evaluation Data, 120
MOBILE I/M Inputs, 123
Review of MOBILE6 I/M Modeling Approach, 130
CaTifornia's EMFAC Model for Estimating I/M Emissions
Reductions, 143
Summary, 144
6 EVALUATING INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE
PROGRAMS: METHODS FOR ESTIMATING EMISSIONS
REDUCTIONS e e e ~ e e e e e e e e e ~ e e e e e e e e e e ~ e e e ~ ~ e ~ ~ e ~ ~ ~ e
Methods for Measuring Emissions Reductions, 147
Summary of Recommendations for Evaluation of Emissions
Reductions, 162
146
7 EVALUATING INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE FOR
COSTS AND OTHER CRITERIA e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 169
Evaluating Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of I/M, 169
Compliance and Enforcement, ~ 89
Public Acceptance and Political Feasibility of I/M and Public
Awareness of Air Pollution, ~ 94
Future Trends in Vehicle Technology That Affect I/M Program
Evaluation, 195
Summary, 197
x~v
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Corlterlts
REFERENCES ·eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 199
GLOSSARY
APPENDIX A: Biographical Information on the Committee on
Vehicle Emission Inspection and Maintenance Programs - -
APPENDIX B: Abbreviations and Names Used for Classifying
Organic Compounds . eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-eeeee
APPENDIX C: Some Statistical Issues in Inspection and
Maintenance Evaluations
xv
215
229
233
234
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Evaluating Vehicle Emissions
Inspection and Maintenance Programs
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