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Personal Cars and China
Personal Cars and China
CHINESE ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by grants from the Ford Motor Company, DaimlerChrysler, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. National Research Council, U.S. National Academy of Engineering, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, China FAW Group Corporation, Dongfeng Motor Corporation, and Chinese Academy of Engineering. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
International Standard Book Number 0-309-08492-X
Additional copies of this report are available from the
National Academies Press,
500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (1-202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu
Copyright 2003 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America.
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THE CHINESE ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING
The Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) is China's foremost academic and advisory institution in engineering and technological sciences. It was founded in June 1994 and now has 611 members. As a national institution, CAE has the following missions: to promote the progress of engineering and technological sciences, foster the growth of outstanding talents in close collaboration with the engineering and technological community, and enhance international cooperation in order to facilitate sustainable economic and social development in China. Prof. Xu Kuangdi is president of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. Dr. Song Jian is the former president (June 1998–June 2002).
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Feinberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering and Medicine
www.national-academies.org
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COMMITTEE ON THE FUTURE OF PERSONAL TRANSPORT VEHICLES IN CHINA
Dale COMPTON, Cochairman
(NAE)
Lillian M. Gilbreth Distinguished Professor of Industrial Engineering
School of Industrial Engineering Purdue University
GUO Konghui, Cochairman
(CAE)
Director,
State Key Lab for Automobile Dynamic Simulation
Professor,
Jilin University
Feng AN Consultant
Center for Transportation Research Argonne National Laboratory
CHENG Zhenbiao Chief Engineer
Science and Technology Information Research Institute Dongfeng Motor Corporation
Elisabeth DRAKE Associate Director for New Energy Technology (retired)
Energy Laboratory Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Patrick F. FLYNN Vice President, Research (retired)
Cummins Engine Company
Ralph GAKENHEIMER Professor of Urban Planning (retired)
Department of Urban Studies and Planning Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Gregory K. INGRAM Director
Operations Evaluation Department World Bank
LI Gang Former President,
Chinese National Automotive Industry Corporation
Senior Project Adviser,
Chinese Academy of Engineering
LU Ximing Director
Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute
QIU Yansheng Deputy Chief Engineer, Professor
Research Institute of Petroleum Processing (RIPP)
SHAO Min Deputy Director, Associate Professor
Center for Environmental Sciences Peking University
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Daniel SPERLING Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Environmental Studies Director,
Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis
SUN Zhenhua Senior Engineer Technique and Quality
Department Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC)
Michael P. WALSH Consultant Arlington, Virginia
ZHAO Junming Senior Engineer
Changchun Automotive Research Institute (CARI)
Ex officio Members
ZHU Gaofeng Vice President (June 1994–June 2002)
Chinese Academy of Engineering
Harold FORSEN Foreign Secretary
National Academy of Engineering
Staff
Michael GREENE, Study Director
(NRC) Division of Policy and Global Affairs National Research Council
LI Renhan, Study Director
(CAE)
Director
Division Office of Mechanical and Vehicle Engineering Chinese Academy of Engineering
ZHENG Xiaoguang Director
Department of International Cooperation Division of International Organization Chinese Academy of Engineering
Vivienne CHIN
Program Office National Academy of Engineering
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Preface
In mid-1999 representatives of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) visited the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) to explore the prospects for collaboration between the two institutions on a study of the future of the personal car in China. This is the second instance of formal collaboration between the CAE and the NRC. The outcome of the first was a study entitled Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States, published in 2001, in which the Chinese Academy of Sciences also participated.
The National Research Council, the operating arm of the three National Academies—the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine—has been producing independent advisory reports at the request of the U.S. government and other government and donor organizations since 1916 (the parent organization, the National Academy of Sciences, received its congressional charter in 1863). The Chinese Academy of Engineering has been in existence since 1994, and is developing a role as adviser to its government that parallels that of the NRC.
Although the nominal topic of this report—the Chinese automotive industry and the future of personal cars in China—is specific to China, many of the issues examined also are relevant to the United States and other countries. For example, the higher polluting emissions that will accompany the proliferation of cars in China are predicted to have global implications for climate change. Moreover, an expanding Chinese automotive fleet will increase the world demand for petroleum, and raises the
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possibility of higher international prices as China becomes a major petroleum importer. Those and the other problems that will confront China as it continues to develop its transportation system—such as congestion, more accidents, undesirable changes in land use, and urban decentralization—must be addressed by any nation that expects to see its motor vehicle population grow significantly.
This study could not examine the extent of global problems that may ensue from a large increase in motorization worldwide, but the committee felt very strongly that the impacts, both positive and negative, of any such increase should be thoroughly explored. Essentially all of the issues identified in this report as being critical to China will arise on a global scale and will be that much more difficult to manage. We urge that such a study be undertaken at the earliest possible moment.
Some important issues identified that are specific to China could not be explored in detail within the present study. These include the impact of motorization on inequity among various segments of the population and the cost and financing of the new infrastructure that will accompany increased motorization in China. An in-depth study of these issues, however, would require an examination of regional and national economic and social development, and the committee was not prepared to examine the many ramifications of this subject.
Similarly, the report devotes less space to social change and changes in urban form than to automotive and fuel-related technologies. Although the report does observe that increases in motorization will lead to decentralization of both jobs and residences in Chinese cities, with some illustrative calculations for Shanghai, answering important questions about the economic impacts and how the transportation infrastructure is to be financed involves issues of public revenues and expenditures that were well beyond the charge to the committee. Nevertheless, these issues are of immense importance to China and deserve further study.
As the goals and priorities of the Chinese automotive industry and the Chinese government evolve, it is clear that the many ways to achieve them will come to light, but none certain of success and all with palpable risks. Naturally, these conflicts were reflected in differences of opinion among members of the committee; however, the line of advocacy on each side of these issues rarely coincided with the nationalities of the committee members. It was a committee of individual experts who, taken together, represented all points of view. Each side learned from the other, and the collaboration has strengthened both of the collaborating institutions. We hope that this report will be viewed as a useful contribution to policy making by the automotive industries and governments of all countries and will serve as an important addition to the literature of science and technology policy. We were honored to serve as cochairmen of this
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distinguished committee. And we compliment the members of the committee for their diligence and efforts throughout this study to ensure that it properly reflected the challenges and opportunities of this period of dynamic change for the Chinese automotive industry and the people and government of China.
W. Dale Compton
U.S. National Research Council
Guo Konghui
Chinese Academy of Engineering
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Acknowledgments
The committee would like to thank the Ford Motor Company, DaimlerChrysler, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. National Research Council (NRC), U.S. National Academy of Engineering, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation, China FAW Group Corporation, Dongfeng Motor Corporation, and Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE) for financial and other support for the study. Staff of the National Research Council’s Transportation Research Board and Board on Energy and Environmental Systems, particularly Stephen Godwin and James Zucchetto, helped to launch the study, and Lester Hoel and Harold Forsen of the National Academy of Engineering traveled to Shanghai to help formulate the memorandum of understanding. Zhu Gaofeng of the Chinese Academy of Engineering made many valuable contributions during the deliberations. The study directors—Michael Greene, Zheng Xiaoguang, and Li Renhan—provided essential logistical support for the committee and valuable contributions during the deliberations and the drafting of the report. Project consultant Sabra Bissette Ledent ably edited the report.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee and the CAE’s Committee for Consultative Projects. The purpose of these independent reviews is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institutions in making their published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review
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China’s Automotive Industry Today,
39
The Current State of Vehicle Technology,
40
Strategies Pursued by Other Countries to Develop Their Automotive Industries,
42
The Future Development of China’s Automotive Industry,
44
Building an R&D Capability,
48
Conclusion,
51
Appendix 3A: The Major Automotive Enterprises in China,
52
Appendix 3B: China’s Five-year Plan for the Automotive Industry—Goals and Strategies,
58
References,
60
4
Present and Future Automotive Technologies
61
Fleet Issues for Vehicle Technologies,
63
Vehicle Component Technologies,
73
Hybrid Vehicle Technologies,
96
System Integration and Manufacturing,
105
Appendix: Other Types of Fuel Cells,
107
References,
110
5
Energy and Fuels
113
China’s Fuel Industry,
117
Alternative Fuel Possibilities for the Future,
126
References,
129
6
Societal Effects of Potential Motorization Pathways
131
Effects of the Motorization Process,
132
Construction of Transport Facilities in Chinese Cities: The Case of Shanghai,
140
Impact of Motorization on Urban Traffic Management Requirements,
142
The Social Impacts of Rapid Motorization,
146
Conclusion,
148
References,
148
7
Environment and Health
150
Emissions,
150
Health Effects,
151
Climate Change,
158
Air Quality,
160
Implications of China’s Vehicle Growth for Future Emissions and Fuel Consumption,
162
References,
166
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8
The Role of Government
169
Strategic Framework,
169
Summary of Worldwide Government Emissions Standards,
171
Summary of Worldwide Government Fuel Economy Standards,
180
Inspection and Maintenance Programs,
186
Industry-Government Partnerships,
186
Conclusion,
197
Appendix: Inspection and Maintenance Programs,
197
References,
201
9
Findings and Recommendations
203
Patterns of Motorization,
203
The Future of the Chinese Automotive Industry,
204
Technology Research and Development,
207
Urban Issues,
209
Environmental and Health Issues,
211
The Role of Government,
212
Reference,
215
Appendixes
A Memorandum of Understanding
219
B Case Study: Shanghai, China
Daniel Sperling, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis Lu Ximing, Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute Zhou Hongchang, Tongji University, Shanghai
223
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LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, AND BOXES
Figures
2-1
Motor vehicle fleets in relation to income, selected countries, 1970 and 1996,
15
2-2
Automobile share of motor vehicle fleet in relation to income, selected countries, 1970 and 1996,
17
2-3
Paved road length in relation to income, selected countries, 1970 and 1996,
19
2-4
Motor vehicle death rates in relation to per capita income, selected countries, 1996,
22
4-1
Driving cycles for measuring emissions,
64
4-2
Steps in the life cycle of automotive technology,
67
4-3
Comparisons of life cycle energy use,
69
4-4
Life cycle comparisons of costs and carbon emissions,
70
4-5
Typical fuel economy improvements in new vehicle options resulting from vehicle weight reduction for a typical power train efficiency,
74
4-6
Comparisons of power train efficiency of combustion engine and fuel cell systems,
78
4-7
Typical performance map for a spark ignition engine,
79
4-8
Typical engine efficiency and average driving cycle operating modes for U.S. cars,
83
4-9
Three-way catalyst system behavior versus fuel/air ratio,
86
4-10
Limits of diesel combustion at 1,500 revolutions per minute,
88
4-11
Fuel-specific nitrogen oxide emission standards versus capability,
90
4-12
Fraction of electric power of selected hybrid electric vehicles,
101
4-13
U.S. fuel economy (gasoline equivalent) through elements of dieselization, load reduction, engine downsizing, and hybrid optimization,
104
4-14
Estimated energy versus cost ranges for selected technologies per kilometer,
108
5-1
China’s annual crude oil production, consumption, and imports, 1991–2000,
118
5-2
China’s production of gasoline and diesel fuel, 1991–2000,
118
6-1
Distribution of land use changes outward from city center of Guangzhou, before and after land reform of 1987,
137
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7-1
Motor vehicle emissions in China, 2000–2020,
163
7-2
Motor vehicle emissions in China—European standards in 2010, light-duty fuel economy improvements starting in 2005,
164
7-3
Light-duty carbon dioxide emissions, alternative scenarios,
165
8-1
Elements of a comprehensive vehicle pollution control strategy,
170
8-2
Miles per gallon of trucks and cars by model year, United States,
181
B-1
Shanghai,
225
B-2
Travel by mode, Shanghai,
233
B-3
Mode of travel in passenger-kilometers, high motorization scenario, 2020,
250
B-4
Mode of travel in passenger-kilometers, low motorization scenario, 2020,
252
Tables
2-1
National Vehicle Fleet Projections for Three GDP Growth Rates, China,
24
3-1
Motor Vehicle Production, China, 2000,
40
4-1
Examples of Emissions Standards in the United States, Japan, and Europe,
65
4-2
Vehicle Costs per kilometer for Selected New Vehicle Options, 2020,
71
4-3
Typical Energy Content and Storage Requirements for Automotive Energy Sources,
84
4-4
Percentage of Time Spent and Fuel Consumed by a Typical U.S. Car during Vehicle Stops and Braking in Different Urban Driving Cycles,
97
4-5
Characteristics of Commercial and Prototype Hybrid Electric Vehicles,
102
4-6
Trade-offs for Hybridizing Fuel Cell Vehicles,
104
5-1
Average Per Capita Energy Use for Selected Countries, 1999,
114
5-2
European Union Fuel Specification Limits,
115
5-3
Influences of Vehicle Efficiency Improvements on Future Fuel Consumption in China,
116
5-4
China’s Refining Capacities,
119
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5-5
Consumption Patterns for Diesel Fuels in China, 1995–2000,
120
5-6
Unleaded Petrol Specification for Motor Vehicles, July 2000,
121
5-7
Sulfur Content of Chinese Diesel Fuels,
122
5-8
China’s Diesel Fuel Specifications,
124
5-9
Planned Sulfur Standards, China,
126
5-10
Energy Consumption of China, 1997 and 2000,
126
5-11
Chinese Energy Reserves,
127
7-1
IPCC’s Global Warming Potential for Carbon Monoxide, Methane, Nonmethane Hydrocarbons, Nitrogen Dioxide, and Nitrous Oxide,
160
7-2
Ozone Concentration in Beijing, 1997–1999,
161
7-3
Light-duty Vehicle Emissions Trends in China, 2002–2020,
164
8-1
Passenger Car Emissions Standards, Nitrogen Oxides (Gasoline and Diesel) and Particulate Matter (Diesel), United States, European Union, and Japan,
174
8-2
Heavy-duty Diesel Nitrogen Oxide Standards, United States, European Union, Japan, 1990–2010,
176
8-3
Heavy-duty Diesel Particulate Matter Standards, United States, European, Japan, 1993–2010,
177
B-1
Cars per 1,000 Inhabitants, Seven Cities,
236
B-2
Energy Use for Vehicles and Fuels, Shanghai, 2000 and 2020,
247
B-3
Key Travel and Population Parameters for Scenarios, 2000 and 2020,
248
Boxes
2-1
Main Obligations of WTO Members,
25
8-1
Transportation Planning and Traffic Management,
172
8-2
Diesel Cars,
175
B-1
Comprehensive Transportation Planning for Shanghai City,
227
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ACRONYMS AND ABBREVATIONS
A5
Automotive five gear
AB
advanced body
ABS
antilock braking system
AC
alternating current
ACEA
European Automobile Manufacturers Association
A/F
air and fuel
ASM
acceleration simulation mode (test)
atm
atmosphere
bbl
barrel, barrels
bhp
brake horsepower
BMEP
brake mean effective pressure
BSFC
brake-specific fuel consumption
Btu
British thermal unit
CAE
Chinese Academy of Engineering
CAFE
Corporate Average Fuel Economy
CARB
California Air Resources Board
CBM
coal-bed methane
CDH
Colorado Department of Health
CFC
chlorofluorocarbon
CFPP
cold filter plugging point
CH4
methane
CI
compression ignition
CIDI
compression ignition direct injection
CNG
compressed natural gas
CNPC
China National Petroleum Corporation
CO
carbon monoxide
CO2
carbon dioxide
CV
conventional vehicle
CVCC
compound vortex-controlled combustion
CVS
constant volume sampler
CVT
continuously variable transmission
DC
direct current
DMC
Dongfeng Motor Corporation
DME
dimethyl ether
DPI
direct public investment
ECD
Energy Conversion Devices Inc.
EGR
exhaust gas recirculation
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EMAT
electro-mechanical automatic transmission
EPA
Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.)
EU
European Union
EUCAR
European Council for Automotive R&D
FAW
First Auto Works
FC
fuel cell
FP
fine particles
F-T
Fischer-Tropsch
FTP
Federal Test Procedure (U.S.)
g
gram
GATS
General Agreement on Trade in Services
GATT
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade
GCP
Gross City Product
GDI
gasoline direct injection
GDP
gross domestic product
GHG
greenhouse gas
GIS
geographic information system
GJ
gigajoule
GM
General Motors
GPS
global positioning system
GWP
global warming potential
H2
hydrogen
HC
hydrocarbon
HCCI
homogeneous charge compression ignition
HCFC
hydrochlorofluorocarbon
HEV
hybrid electric vehicle
HFC
hydrofluorocarbon
hp
horsepower
HVAC
heating, ventilating, air-conditioning
I
iodine
IARC
International Agency for Research on Cancer
ICE
internal combustion engine
I/M
inspection and maintenance
IPCC
International Panel on Climate Change
IRF
International Road Federation
ITS
intelligent transportation system
J
joule
JAMA
Japanese Automobile Manufacturers Association
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KAMA
Korean Automobile Manufacturers Association
kg
kilogram
kl
kiloliter
km
kilometer
KOH
potassium hydroxide
kPa
kilopascal
kph
kilometers per hour
kW
kilowatt
kWh
kilowatt-hour
lb
pound
lb/hp-hr
pounds mass per horsepower-hour
LEV
low-emission vehicle
LHV
lower heating value
LNG
liquefied natural gas
LPG
liquefied petroleum gas
m3
cubic meter
M5
manual five gear
mbd
million barrels per day
MeOH
methanol
Mg
magnesium
MITI
Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Japan)
MJ
megajoule
MMT
methyl cyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl
MMT
million metric tons
MON
Motor Octane Number
mpg
miles per gallon
mph
miles per hour
MPV
multipurpose vehicle
MTBE
methyl tertiary-butyl ether
MW
megawatts
µg
microgram
µm
micron, micrometer
MWh
megawatt-hour
NASA
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (U.S.)
NDIR
nondispersive infrared
NH3
ammonia
NHDTG
National Heavy-duty Truck Group (China)
NiMH
nickel metal hydride
NMHC
nonmethane hydrocarbon
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NMVOC
nonmethane volatile organic compound
NO2
nitrogen dioxide
NOx
nitrogen oxides
N2O
nitrous oxide
NRC
National Research Council
O3
ozone
ODS
ozone-depleting substance
OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OEM
original equipment manufacturer
PAH
polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon
PEM
proton exchange membrane
PFC
perfluorocarbon
PM
particulate matter
PNGV
Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles (U.S.)
ppm
parts per million
R&D
research and development
RMB
renminbi
RON
Research Octane Number
rpm
revolutions per minute
RVP
Reid vapor pressure
s
second
SAE
Society of Automotive Engineers
SAIC
Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation
SCR
selective catalytic reduction
SF6
sulfur hexafluoride
SI
spark ignition
SINOPEC
China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation
SOFC
solid oxide fuel cell
SPS
sanitary and phytosanitary
SUV
sport-utility vehicle
TAIC
Tianjin Automotive Industry Group Corporation
TBT
Technical Barrier to Trade [Agreement]
TOEtons of oil equivalent
TRIMS
[Agreement on] Trade-Related Investment Measures
TRIPS
Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights
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UHC
unburned hydrocarbons
USABC
U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium
USCAR
U.S. Council for Automotive Research
USEPA
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
V
volt
VMT
vehicles miles traveled
VOC
volatile organic compound
W
watt
WTO
World Trade Organization
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