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move additional planes. The characteristics of these tools suggest how operational users might utilize highly accurate 2- to 6-hour convective forecasts when they are developed. A departure route availability planning tool (RAPT) that uses the 0- to 60-minute Terminal Convective Weather Forecasts commenced operational evaluation at the New York terminal area and surrounding en-route facilities in August 2002. RAPT examines four-dimensional intersections of planes with forecasted storm locations to determine appropriate departure times from a runway. The RAPT software will utilize the 0- to 2-hour Regional Convective Weather Forecasts at a number of air traffic control facilities in 2003. Direct use of convective forecasts to assist air traffic users in making decisions about traffic routing, such as illustrated by RAPT, has significant implications for the presentation of convective weather forecasts and validation. First, the uncertainty of convective forecasts needs to be expressed in a way that allows tools such as RAPT to provide guidance to operational users as to the likelihood of a route being available for use as a function of time. And second, convective forecast accuracy needs to be verified in the context of operational value to the user, particularly by explicitly addressing the accuracy for route usage decisions.
Key Points Identified by Presenters on Ways to Present Forecasts
Two- to 6-hour convective weather forecast products should be designed to facilitate air traffic control and airline decisions such as predicted capacity, route availability, and the fuel to be loaded on aircraft.
Because accurate deterministic 2- to 6-hour forecasts are not available, it is necessary to develop probabilistic forecasts that can readily be used by both humans and automated air traffic management decision support tools.
The FAA will need to also have a robust “tactical” convective weather decision support capability that takes advantage of the rapid progress in nowcast and numerical modeling capability, which implies a change in focus for the Systems Command Center from strategic to tactical.
In addition to these deterministic and probabilistic forecasts, traffic flow management and traffic automation decision support tools can assist in the development and execution of weather impact mitigation plans.
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