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~ A.
Demographic Change and Its Implications
in the Developing World
Panel on Urban Population Dynamics
Mark R. Montgomery, Richard Stren, Barney Cohen,
and Holly E. Reecl, Eclitors
Committee on Population
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Eclucation
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu
OCR for page R2
TO NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
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the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute
of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for
their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by a cooperative agreement between the National Academy
of Sciences and the United States Agency for International Development (CCP-3078-A-
00-5024), and from grants from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation (under grants
nos. 40000647, 20200661, and 299990629), the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation
(under grants nos. 99-3533 and 2002-7757), and the Canadian International Development
Agency (under grant no. 7008531~. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda-
tions expressed in this publication are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect
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Printed in the United States of America
Suggested Citation: National Research Council. (20034. Cities Transformed: Demo-
graphic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. Panel on Urban Population
Dynamics, M.R. Montgomery, R. Stren, B. Cohen, and H.E. Reed, eds., Committee on
Population, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC:
The National Academies Press.
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NA - _ ~ A A _ A ~ —~ ~ _ -
A tJ ~ A - ^LUA ~ -M ~;::,
_ _
. . . . . ~ . . . . ...
A~v/sers to the Nat/on on Juenre; t~eer~ng, and Med/one
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chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.
www.national-academies.org
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Pravin Visaria
(1937 2001)
This volume is dedicated to our colleague Pravin Visaria, who passed away during
the completion of this project.
Pravin was director of the Institute of Economic Growth in Delhi and worked
closely with the Indian government's Planning Commission, Department of Statis-
tics, Office of the Registrar General, and Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.
A distinguished scholar who held positions with the University of Bombay, the
World Bank, and the Gujarat Institute of Development Research, Pravin was al-
ways involved in important policy-relevant economic and demographic research.
He published numerous articles and books on mortality, fertility, migration, ur-
banization, labor force and employment, population projections, censuses and sur-
veys, poverty, and population policy, especially in the Indian context. Pravin also
held leadership positions with many important academic and policy organizations,
including the Indian Association for the Study of Population, the National Sample
Survey Organization of India, and the Gujarat Economic Association.
Pravin was an especially constructive and committed member of the Panel
on Urban Population Dynamics. He not only provided much information about
the rapid urbanization of one of the world's largest countries India but he also
pushed the panel to evaluate its own thinking, insisting that we always consider
our arguments from the viewpoint of policy makers in poor countries, who need
to deal with very large rural, as well as urban populations. Pravin was a member
of so many research networks and institutions over the years, and friends around
the world mourned his sad and early death. We remember him as our friend who
continually reminded us of the purpose of our research: to guide us towards better
policy decisions.
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PANEL ON URBAN POPULATION DYNAMICS
MARK R. MONTGOMERY (Co-Chair), Policy Research Division,
Population Council, New York, NY, and Department of Economics,
State University of New York at Stony Brook
RICHARD STREN (Co-Chair), Department of Political Science, University
of Toronto, Canada
CHARLES M. BECKER, Department of Economics, University of
Colorado, Denver, and Institute of Behavioral Science, University of
Colorado, Boulder
ELLEN M. BRENNAN-GALVIN, School of Forestry and Environmental
Studies, Yale University
MARTIN BROCKERHOFF,~ Policy Research Division, Population
Council, New York, NY
MICHAEL A. COHEN, International Affairs Program, The New School for
Social Research, New York, NY
ALAIN DUBRESSON, Laboratoire Geographic des Tropiques, Universite
de Paris X-Nanterre, Paris, France
GUSTAVO GARZA, Center for Demographic and Urban Development
Studies, E1 Colegio de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
TRUDY HARPHAM, Division of Urban and Environmental Studies, South
Bank University, London, United Kingdom
TERRENCE G. MCGEE, Institute of Asian Research, University of British
Columbia, Vancouver, Canada
CAROLINE MOSER, Overseas Development Institute, London, United
Kingdom
SASKIA SASSEN, Department of Sociology, University of Chicago
DAVID E. SATTERTHWAITE, Human Settlements Programme,
International Institute for Environment and Development, London,
United Kingdom
PRAVIN VISARIA,2 Institute for Economic Growth, New Delhi, India
MICHAEL WHITE, Department of Sociology, Brown University,
Providence, RI
YUE-MAN YEUNG, Shaw College, The Chinese University of Hong Kong,
Hong Kong
National Research Council Staff
BARNEY COHEN, Study Director
HOLLY REED, Program Officer
BRIAN TOBACHNICK, Senior Project Assistant (until August 2001)
ANA-MARIA IGNAT, Senior Project Assistant (since October 2001)
~ Resigned August 2000.
2Deceased February 2001.
v
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CHRISTINE CHEN, Senior Project Assistant (August-October 2001)
ELIZABETH WALLACE, Senior Project Assistant (until October 2000)
Liaison to the International Union for the Scientific Study of
Population (IUSSP) Working Group on Urbanization
ANTHONY CHAMPION, Department of Geography, University of
Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
V1
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COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
2002
JANE MENKEN (ChairJ, Institute of Behavioral Sciences, University of
Colorado, Boulder
ELLEN M. BRENNAN-GALVIN, Woodrow Wilson International Center for
Scholars, Washington, DC
JANET CURRIE, Department of Economics, University of California,
Los Angeles
JOHN N. HOBCRAFT, Population Investigation Committee, London School
of Economics, United Kingdom
CHARLES B. KEELY, Institute for the Study of International Migration,
Georgetown University, Washington, DC
DAVID I. KERTZER, Department of Anthropology, Brown University,
Providence, RI
DAVID A. LAM, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan,
Ann Arbor
CYNTHIA B. LLOYD, Population Council, New York, NY
W. HENRY MOSLEY, Department of Population and Family Health
Sciences, The Johns Hopkins University
ALBERTO PALLONI, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
JAMES W. VAUPEL, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research,
Rostock, Germany
KENNETH W. WACHTER, Department of Demography, University of
California, Berkeley
LINDA J. WAITE, Population Research Center, University of Chicago
BARNEY COHEN, Director
vat
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Acknowledgments
As co-chairs of the Panel on Urban Population Dynamics, we would like to say
on behalf of the panel that we have been privileged and challenged by our task
of examining the rapid urbanization of the developing world and its causes and
consequences. Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications
in the Developing World is the product of a three-and-a-half-year effort in which
we both reviewed the existing literature and conducted new analyses in the hope
of encouraging demographers (and, by extension, other urban scholars) to take a
fresh look at this topic. If others are moved to follow up, or to criticize some of
the work we have presented in this volume, our time will not have been wasted.
This report would not have been possible without the help of numerous people
and organizations. First, we wish to thank the reports' sponsors: the Andrew
W. Mellon Foundation (whose program officer, Carolyn Makinson, was a fount
of enthusiasm and intellectual energy), the Canadian International Development
Agency, the United States Agency for International Development, and the William
and Flora Hewlett Foundation. Their generous support for this project allowed us
to draw creatively on a variety of resources that ultimately made for a stronger
report.
This report is the collective product of panel members and staff. Its content re-
flects the deliberations of the full panel. The panel reviewed all contributions, and
these have been revised and edited in light of panel reactions and the comments
of outside reviewers. The purpose of the following list, therefore, is to give credit
to individuals on the panel but not to assign final responsibility for the published
text.
Executive Summary: This is the collective product of the deliberations of the
entire panel.
Chapter 1: B. Cohen and M. Montgomery
Chapter 2: M. Montgomery, H. Reed, D. Satterthwaite, M. White, M. Cohen,
T. McGee, and Y. Young
Chapter 3: B. Cohen, M. White, M. Montgomery, T. McGee, and Y. Young
Chapter 4: M. White, M. Montgomery, E. Brennan-Galvin, and P. Visaria
Chapter 5: D. Satterthwaite, M. Montgomery, and H. Reed
Chapter 6: M. Montgomery, H. Reed, and M. White
. . .
V111
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Chapter 7: T. Harpham, H. Reed, M. Montgomery, D. Satterthwaite,
C. Moser, and B. Cohen
Chapter 8: C. Becker, A. Dubresson, G. Garza, S. Sassen, M. Cohen.
M. Montgomery, and B. Cohen
Chapter 9: R. Stren, T. McGee, C. Moser, and Y. Young
Chapter 10: R. Stren, B. Cohen, M. Montgomery, and H. Reed
Appendix A: E. Brennan-Galvin and M. Montgomery
Appendices B-F: M. Montgomery
1X
It should be noted that although this list covers major sections of this volume,
these sections frequently contain additional paragraphs or pages from other hands.
Primary responsibility for the revision and editing of the volume was shared by
Mark Montgomery, Richard Stren, Barney Cohen, and Holly Reed.
Anthony Champion, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, served as official li-
aison between the panel and the International Union for the Scientific Study of
Population's Working Group on Urbanisation. Tony helped review the panel's re-
port informally and offered important suggestions and advice. We are very grate-
ful for his many contributions.
Numerous other individuals also made key contributions to the panel's efforts.
We are especially indebted to Martin Brockerhoff, who was with the panel in its
first year. His intellectual legacy to this volume is evident in Chapter 6, which
evolved along the lines that Martin had anticipated in the panel's early delibera-
tions. Paul C. Hewett of The Population Council devoted countless hours to the
analysis of data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Brian Pence, also of
The Population Council, made a number of key contributions to analyses of mor-
tality. Doreen Totaram of The Population Council skillfully prepared the massive
reference list for the report.
Anne Kubisch of the Aspen Institute provided many leads to the neighborhood
effects literature for the United States that is discussed in Chapter 2. Alice Clague
of the United Nations generously made available a Republication version of data
from the 1998 Demographic Yearbook, without which we could not have derived
results for city size classes. Using these data, Edward Hui (at the time an under-
graduate at Brown University) took on the difficult task of matching city-specific
population data to the region and city size identifiers from the Demographic and
Health Surveys datasets. Roberta Scheinman linked data on HIV-AIDS from the
U.S. Census Bureau's database to the United Nations city population file. Ann
Ilacque, librarian at the PSTC at Brown University, and Sara Colangelo, a Brown
University undergraduate, contributed to the literature reviews for Chapter 4.
Sassy Molyneux (working from the Kenya Medical Research Institute, Well-
come Trust Centre for Geographic Medicine Research, Kilifi, Kenya) and Emma
Grant (South Bank University, London) both contributed unequalled expertise to
the early versions of Chapter 7. We also thank Gordon McGranahan, International
Institute for Environment and Development, London, and John Seager, Medical
Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa, for their comments on this chapter.
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x
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Several people participated in a planning meeting in December 1998 to help
formulate a plan for the panel's contributions. We have been mindful of the ad-
vice we received from the following people at that meeting: Richard Bilsborrow,
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; Sidney Goldstein, Brown University;
Josef Gugler, University of Connecticut; and David Lam, University of Michigan
at Ann Arbor.
The panel was fortunate to be able to hold several workshops on topics related
to our undertaking. In this way, we were able to gain insights from a number of
people outside of the panel. The first workshop we held, in October 1999, which
addressed the topic of "world cities in poor countries," was organized with the
help of Josef Gugler, University of Connecticut. We are grateful to Dr. Gugler for
identifying an array of scholars from around the world who presented case stud-
ies: Janet Abu-Lughod, New School University; Maria Helena Moreira Alves,
Instituto de Ciencias Aplicadas, Santiago, Chile; James H. Bater, University of
Waterloo; Owen Crankshaw, University of Cape Town; Dean Forbes, University
of South Australia; Susan Parnell, University of Cape Town; Sujata Patel, Uni-
versity of Pune; Janet W. Salaff, University of Toronto; Alvin Y. So, The Hong
Kong University of Science and Technology; Peter M. Ward, University of Texas
at Austin; Douglas Webster, National Economic and Social Development Board
of Thailand; Weiping Wu, Virginia Commonwealth University; and Shahid Yusuf,
The World Bank. The papers from this workshop will be published in the edited
volume World Cities in Poor Countries by Cambridge University Press in 2003.
In February 2000, the panel was hosted by panel member Gustavo Garza and
his colleagues for a meeting at E1 Colegio de Mexico, where we had the oppor-
tunity to learn firsthand about urbanization processes in Mexico City. Gustavo
organized a wonderful tour of the city for us, focusing on public services and hous-
ing. We thank him for his assistance and are grateful to our other hosts: Andres
Lira, President, E1 Colegio de Mexico; Manuel Ordorica Mellado, Director, Center
for Demographic and Urban Development Studies at E1 Colegio de Mexico; and
Gabriela Grajales, E1 Colegio de Mexico. We benefited from the presentations of
several guest speakers for this meeting as well: David Arellano, Center for Eco-
nomic Research and Education; Andres Lira, E1 Colegio de Mexico; Orlandina de
Oliveira, E1 Colegio de Mexico; Rosa Maria Rubalcava, Mexican National Coun-
cil on Population; Carlos Santos-Burgoa, Institute of Health, Environment, and
Employment; and Willem VanVliet, University of Colorado, Boulder.
The panel's work on urban health was furthered and materially assisted by the
participants in a workshop on social capital and urban health held in May 2000.
Trudy Harpham and Mark Montgomery from the panel co-chaired this meeting.
The participants shared their knowledge of the linkages between health and social
capital in both richer and poorer countries. We thank the following people for their
participation: Karen Hansen, Northwestern University; Ichiro Kawachi, Harvard
University; Nan Lin, Duke University; Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin
at Madison; Edith Parker, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor; Joseph Potter,
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
X1
University of Texas at Austin; Vijayendra Rao, The World Bank; Carlos
Rodriguez, Fundacion Para la Asesoria de Programas de Salud (FUNDAPS), Call,
Colombia; Amy Schulz, University of Michigan at Ann Arbor; John Townsend,
The Population Council; Thomas W. Valente, University of Southern California;
and Michael Woolcock, The World Bank. Emma Grant of South Bank University,
London, was instrumental in organizing this workshop and wrote the workshop
summary.
In September 2000, our panel was privileged to hold a meeting in Woods Hole,
Massachusetts, where Seymour S. Cohen, a member of the National Academy
of Sciences and father of panel member Michael A. Cohen, served as host. A
workshop on urban governance held in conjunction with this meeting included
the following participants: Koffi Attahi, Bureau National d'Etudes Techniques et
de Developpement, Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire; Jordi Borja, Urban Technology Con-
sulting, Barcelona, Spain; Gu Chaolin, Nanjing University; Patricia McCarney,
University of Toronto; AbdouMaliq Simone, New School University; and K. C.
Sivaramakrishnan, Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, India. The papers writ-
ten by Dr. Attahi, Dr. Borja, Dr. Gu, Dr. Sivaramakrishnan, and Dr. Edgar Pieterse,
Islanda Institute, South Africa, proved very helpful to the panel in our work on
governance.
Many other colleagues supplied the panel with research in the form of back-
ground papers. These papers, which served as valuable resources for the re-
port, were written by Kathryn H. Anderson, Vanderbilt University; Cris Beau-
chemin, Universite de Paris VIII; Philippe Bocquier, Institut de Recherche Pour
le Developpement, Nairobi, Kenya; Pablo Ciccolella, Universidad Nacional de
Buenos Aires; Simone Buechler, Columbia University; Christopher Dunn, Uni-
versity of Michigan; Valerie Durrant, National Research Council; Martha Galvez,
Citizens Housing and Planning Council, New York; Emma Grant, South Bank
University, London; Christopher D. Grewe, University of Colorado; Paul C.
Hewett, Population Council; Asa Jonsson, International Institute for Environment
and Development, London; David Lam, University of Michigan; Sang-Hyop Lee,
University of Hawaii; Zai Liang, City University of New York; Andrew Mason,
University of Hawaii; Iliana Mignaqui, Universidad Nacional de Buenos Aires;
Sassy Molyneux, Kenya Medical Research Institute, Wellcome Trust Centre for
Geographic Medicine Research, Kilifi, Kenya; Erbolat Musabekov, Kazakhstan
National Statistical Agency; Yiu Por Chen, Columbia University; Sueli Schiffer,
Universidade de Sao Paulo; Ai-Gul Seitenova, Pragma Corporation, Kazakhstan;
Sunil Kumar Sinha, Institute for Economic Growth, Mumbai, India; Cecilia Tacoli,
International Institute for Environment and Development, London; and Dina
Urzhumova, Pragma Corporation, Kazakhstan.
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their
diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures ap-
proved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The pur-
pose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that
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. .
X11
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to
ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and
responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript
remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish
to thank the following individuals for their review of this report:
Gordon Clark, Department of Geography, University of Oxford, Oxford,
United Kingdom
Susan Hanson, School of Geography, Clark University, Worcester, MA
Kenneth H. Hill, Department of Population and Family Health Science,
Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD
Akin L. Mabogunje, Development Policy Centre, Ibadan, Nigeria
David R. Meyer, Department of Sociology, Brown University, Providence, RI
Philip Rees, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United
Kingdom
Barney L. Warf, Department of Geography, Florida State University,
Tallahassee, FL
John Weeks, International Population Center, San Diego State University, CA
Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive com-
ments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the panel's conclusions or
recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release.
The review of this report was overseen by Ronald Lee, Department of Demog-
raphy, University of California, Berkeley, CA, and Brian J.L. Berry, School of
Social Science, University of Texas, Richardson, TX. Appointed by the National
Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent
examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional pro-
cedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility
for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring panel and the
institution.
We especially wish to recognize the efforts of several staff of The National
Academies, who provided critical support for the panel and our work. Jianjun
Ji and Ito Toshima, interns with the Committee on Population, lent their energy
and skills to background research for the report. Michelle McGuire assisted with
proofreading and editing of the final manuscript. In the Reports Office of the Di-
vision of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Kirsten Sampson Snyder
helped guide the manuscript through review, editing, and finally publication. And
Rona Briere applied her considerable editorial talent to this daunting text; we are
deeply indebted to her.
Elizabeth Wallace organized our earliest panel meetings and skillfully as-
sisted with other administrative tasks. We are also grateful for the help of Brian
Tobachnick, who guided the panel through logistical arrangements for subsequent
meetings and helped keep the finances and paperwork for the project under con-
trol. Christine Chen made arrangements for our crucial final meeting in Boulder,
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
. . .
X111
Colorado, and helped transition the panel smoothly into the hands of Ana-Maria
Ignat. Ana-Maria has been a steadfast help to the panel, not only by organizing
logistical matters with ease and grace, but also by providing a great deal of re-
search support and editorial expertise. Her assistance has made dealing with the
final stages of editing and managing the manuscript a fluid and virtually worry-
free process.
We are grateful to all the individuals who contributed to this immense under-
taking. It would not have been possible without their continual, generous, and
imaginative support.
Mark R. Montgomery and Richard Stren, Co-Chairs
Panel on Urban Population Dynamics
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XIV
Human Capital: Schooling, 164
Urban Well-Being: Concepts and Measures, 167
Access to Public Services, 171
Measuring Absolute Poverty in Cities, 183
Risk and Vulnerability, 187
Children's Lives, 191
Conclusions and Recommendations, 199
6 FERTILITY AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH
The Urban Dimension, 205
An Empirical Overview, 213
Fertility Transitions and Economic Crises, 230
The Urban Poor, 235
Migrants, 246
Urban Adolescents, 251
Urban Service Delivery, 255
Conclusions and Recommendations, 260
7 MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY: IS CITY LIFE GOOD FOR YOUR
HEALTH?
Distinctive Aspects of Urban Health 267
The Disease Spectrum, 269
Recent Evidence on Children's Health and Survival, 277
A Penalty for the Urban Poor?, 288
Health Service Provision and Treatment Seeking, 293
Conclusions and Recommendations, 300
8 THE URBAN ECONOMY TRANSFORMED
Sector and Space, 306
Economic Returns to Schooling, 323
Migration and Economic Mobility, 326
The Informalization of Urban Labor Markets, 336
Earnings Inequality: Case Studies, 344
The Future: Global Links and Local Outcomes, 348
Conclusions and Recommendations, 356
9 THE CHALLENGE OF URBAN GOVERNANCE
The Concept of Urban Governance, 361
Major Challenges of Urban Governance in Developing Countries, 367
Is There a "Best" Model of Urban Metropolitan Governance?, 406
Conclusions and Recommendations, 41 1
10 LOOKING AHEAD
CONTENTS
203
264
304
359
414
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Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1 INTRODUCTION
The Demographic Transformation, 11
The Transformation of Cities, 17
The Panel's Charge, 25
Study Scope and Approach, 27
Organization of the Report, 28
2 WHY LOCATION MATTERS
Places, Networks, Neighborhoods, 31
Sustaining Diversity: Economic Interactions, 51
City Systems and City-Regions, 58
From Government to Governance, 64
What Remains of the Urban/Rural Divide?, 67
URBAN POPULATION CHANGE: A SKETCH
Cities Amid Global Forces, 76
Key Demographic Features of the Urban Transition, 81
Major Regional Differences, 95
Conclusions, 106
4 URBAN POPULATION DYNAMICS: MODELS, MEASURES,
AND FORECASTS
The Simple Analytics, 110
Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Urban Age Structure, 120
Core Issues in Definition and Measurement, 128
Projecting Urban Populations, 141
Statistical Systems for Disaggregated Data, 146
Conclusions and Recommendations, 151
5 DIVERSITY AND INEQUALITY
A Spatial Perspective, 157
xv
9
29
75
108
155
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XVI
Human Capital: Schooling, 160
Urban Well-Being: Concepts and Measures, 164
Access to Public Services, 167
Measuring Absolute Poverty in Cities, 180
Risk and Vulnerability, 184
Children's Lives, 188
Conclusions and Recommendations, 195
6 FERTILITY AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH
The Urban Dimension, 200
An Empirical Overview, 209
Fertility Transitions and Economic Crises, 226
The Urban Poor, 231
Migrants, 242
Urban Adolescents, 247
Urban Service Delivery, 251
Conclusions and Recommendations, 255
MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY: IS CITY LIFE GOOD FOR
YOUR HEALTH?
Distinctive Aspects of Urban Health, 262
The Disease Spectrum, 262
Recent Evidence on Children's Health and Survival, 272
A Penalty for the Urban Poor?, 284
Health Service Provision and Treatment Seeking, 289
Conclusions and Recommendations, 295
8 THE URBAN ECONOMY TRANSFORMED
Sector and Space, 302
Economic Returns to Schooling, 319
Migration and Economic Mobility, 322
The Informalization of Urban Labor Markets, 331
Earnings Inequality: Case Studies, 340
The Future of Urban Labor Markets: Global Links and Local
Outcomes, 343
Conclusions and Recommendations, 352
9 THE CHALLENGE OF URBAN GOVERNANCE
The Concept of Urban Governance, 357
Major Challenges of Urban Governance in Developing Countries, 363
Is There a "Best" Model of Urban Governance?, 401
Conclusions and Recommendations, 407
CONTENTS
199
259
300
355
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CONTENTS
10 LOOKING AHEAD
Directions for Future Research, 412
Improving the Research Infrastructure, 414
REFERENCES
APPENDICES
A Concepts and Definitions of Metropolitan Regions
B Mathematical Derivations
C Linking DHS Surveys to United Nations City Data
D United Nations Estimates and Projections
E Measuring Relative Poverty with DHS Data
F Recommendations for the Demographic and Health Surveys
Biographical Sketches of Panel Members and Staff
INDEX
. .
XV11
410
419
481
484
487
495
499
503
507
515
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Demographic Change and Its Implications
in the Developing World
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