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HE MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES' ROLE IN HOMELAND SECURITY Proceedings of a Workshop Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NATIONAL EPOCH CQ0~CIL OF ME NATIONAL AND - /ES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.eclu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are ctrawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by the Army (Grant No. DAAD 190210066), the Air Force (PR# fq8671-0200746), the National Security Agency (Contract MDA904-02-01-0104), Microsoft Corporation (Award # 2327100), the National Science Foundation (Grant No. DMS-0215714), and the Navy (Grant No. N00014-02-~-03661. Any opinions, finclings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that proviclect support for the project. International Stanciarct Book Number 0-309-0935-0 (POD) International Stanciarct Book Number 0-309-53149-7 (PDF) Acictitional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334- 33 ~ 3 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.eclu Copyright 2004 by the National Acaclemy of Sciences. All rights reservecl. Printed in the United States of America COVER lI~I~USTRATIONS: On the left is "circuit earth," a conceptual image of the earth as being as interconnected as a complex semiconductor circuit. While the worIc~wicle interconnectivity is indisputable, scientists and engineers are a long way from being able to map, characterize, and analyze this complex network. That task will require many new clevelopments in the mathematical sciences. The image on the right is of a human iris, the patterns of which are sometimes used in biometric security systems. Realization of the full potential of such biometric technologies also clepencts on future mathematical cteve~opments. The "circuit earth" illustration is courtesy of PhotoDisc, Inc.. while the iris image is courtesy of John Daugman, University of Cambridge. Both images are reprinted with permission. . . 11

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THE TONAL ACADEMIES Adder ~ He Notion on Stiinre/ E#~nee~ Timee The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www .nat lone l-acade m ies.org . . . 111

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BOARD ON MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS PETER J. BICKEL, Chair, University of California, Berkeley DIMITRIS BERTSIMAS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management JOHN E. HOPFCROFT, Cornell University ROBERT E. KASS, Carnegie Mellon University ARJEN K. LENSTRA, Citibank, N.A. ROBERT LIPSCHUTZ, Affymetrix, Inc. CHARLES M. LUCAS, American International Companies GEORGE C. PAPANICOLAOU, Stanford University LINDA R. PETZOLD, University of California, Santa Barbara PRABHAKAR RAGHAVAN, Verity, Inc. DOUGLAS RAVENEL, University of Rochester STEPHEN M. ROBINSON, University of Wiscons Staff BMSA Workshop Organizers Scott Weidman, BMSA director Richard Campbell, program officer Barbara Wright, administrative assistant Electronic Report Design Jennifer S1imowitz, program officer Sarah Brown, research associate 1V in-Madison

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report has been reviewed in ctraft form by inctivicluals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the Report Review Committee of the National Research Council (NRC). The purpose of this inctepenctent review is to provide canctict and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional stanciarcts for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and ctraft manuscript remain conficlential to protect the integrity of the cteiiberative process. We wish to thank the following inctivicluais for their review of this report: George CaselIa, University of Florida, David Ferguson, The Boeing Company, Valen Johnson, University of Michigan, and Jon Kettenring, Teicorctia Technologies. Although the reviewers listed above have provident many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to enclorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor ctict they see the Lea] ctraft of the report before its release. Responsibility for the Lea] content of this CD report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. v

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Preface On April 26-27, 2002, the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications (BMSA) of the National Research Council organized a workshop on the role of the mathematical sciences in homeland security. The workshop was developed to illustrate contributions of mathematical sciences research to important areas of homeland security. The workshop drew over ~ 00 researchers and focused on five major areas of research: data mining, detection and epidemiology of bioterrorist attacks, image analysis and voice recognition, communications and computer security, and data fusion. The goal of this CD report is to help mathematical scientists and policy makers understand the connections between lines of research and important problems of national security. included in this report are video presentations from most of the speakers at the workshop, as well as transcripts and summaries of the presentations, and any presentations materials used, such as power point slides. The presentations represent independent research efforts from academia. the private sector, and government agencies, and as such they provide a sampling rather than a complete examination of the interface between the mathematical sciences and the complex challenge of homeland security. Each presenter identified numerous avenues of mathematical sciences research necessary for progress in homeland security. By design, none of the presentations provides a broad outline connecting the five major areas of research. However, common threads did emerge, such as the need for non- parameiric methods, data visualization, understanding verification and validation of models and simulations, the need to deal with high-dimensiona~ data and models, and the value of basing actions on sound mathematical analyses. This proceedings represents the viewpoints of its authors only and should not be taken as a consensus report of the BMSA or of the National Research Council. We are grateful to the following individuals who reviewed this report: George Cascara, University of F~oricla; David Ferguson, The Boeing Company; Va~en Johnson, University of Michigan; and Jon Kettenring, Te~cordia Technologies. Funcling for the workshop, its vicleotaping, and resulting report was provided by the National Science Foundation, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Microsoft Corporation, Office of Naval Research, Air Force Office of Scientific Research, and the Army Research Office. V1