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EVAlUATI N G MILITARY ADVERTISING AND RECRUITING Theory and Methodology Committee on the Youth Population and Military Recruitment Phase 11 Paul R. Sackett and Anne S. Mavor, Eclitors Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The study was supported by Contract No. M67004-00-C-0030 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Marine Corps. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommenda- tions expressed in this publication are those of the authorts) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data National Research Council (U.S.~. Committee on the Youth Population and Military Recruitment. Evaluating military advertising and recruiting: theory and methodology / Committee on the Youth Population and Military Recruitment--phase II; Paul R. Sackett and Anne S. Mavor, editors. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-309-09127-6 (hardcover) -- ISBN 0-309-52947-6 (pdf) 1. United States--Armed Forces--Recruiting, enlistment, etc. 2. Manpower--United States. 3. Youth--United States. I. Sackett, Paul R. II. Mavor, Anne S. III. Title. UB323.A5 2004 355.2'2362'0973--dc22 2003027271 Additional copies of this report are available from The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Printed in the United States of America. Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2004~. Evaluating Military Advertising and Recruiting: Theory and Methodology. Committee on the Youth Population and Military Recruitment Phase II. Paul R. Sackett and Anne S. Mavor, editors. Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medirine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its mem- bers, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advis- ing the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal gov- ernment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro- viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON THE YOUTH POPULATION AND MILITARY RECRUITMENT PHASE II PAUL R. SACKETT (Chair), Department of Psychology, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities DAVID I. ARMOR, School of Public Policy, George Mason University rERALD G. BACHMAN, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor rOHN EIGHMEY, Greenlee School of Journalism, Iowa State University, Ames MARTIN FISHBEIN, Annenberg School for Communication, University of Pennsylvania CAROLYN SUE HOFSTRAND, Taylor High School, Volusia County, Florida PAUL F. HOGAN, The Lewin Group, Fairfax, Virginia JAMES JACCARD, Department of Psychology, State University of New York, Albany CAROLYN MADDY-BERNSTEIN, Education Consultant, Oro Valley, Arizona CAROL A. MUTTER, LTG, retired, U.S. Marine Corps LUTHER B. OTTO, emeritus, Department of Sociology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh WILLIAM I. STRICKLAND, HumRRO, Alexandria, Virginia NANCY T. TIPPINS, Personnel Research Associates, Dallas, Texas rOHN T. WARNER, Department of Economics, Clemson University BRUCE R. ORVIS, Committee Consultant, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California ANNE S. MAYOR, Study Director MARILYN DABADY, Senior Research Associate WENDY E. KEENAN, Senior Project Assistant v

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BOARD ON BEHAVIORAL, COGNITIVE, AND SENSORY SCIENCES ANNE C. PETERSEN (Chair), W.K. Kellogg Foundation, Battle Creek, Michigan LINDA MARIE BURTON, Center for Human Development and Family Research, The Pennsylvania State University STEPHEN I. CECI, Department of Human Development, Cornell University EUGENE K. EMORY, Department of Psychology, Emory University ROCHEL GELMAN, Center for Cognitive Science, Rutgers University ANTHONY W. rACKSON, Asia Society, Los Angeles PETER LENNIE, Center for Neural Science, New York University MARCIA C. LINN, Graduate School of Education, University of California, Berkeley ELISSA L. NEWPORT, Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, University of Rochester MICHAEL L. RUTTER, Institute of Psychiatry, University of London ARNOLD SAMEROFF, Center for Human Growth and Development, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor JAMES W. STIGLER, Department of Psychology, University of California, Los Angeles WILLIAM A. YOST, Office of Research and the Graduate School, Loyola University Chicago CHRISTINE R. HARTEL, Board Director Al

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Preface he Committee on the Youth Population and Military Recruitment was established by the National Research Council (NRC) in 1999 in response to a request from the U.S. Department of Defense. The impetus for the study was the recruiting problems encountered by the Services in the late 1990s. The central question is how to attract qualified youth to serve their country and, if necessary, be willing to put them- selves in harm's way. Although military missions have diversified since the end of the cold war, the primary function of the Services remains the provision of the nation's warriors and protectors. The charge to the committee was to provide information about the demographic characteristics, skill levels, attitudes, and values of the youth population; to examine options available to youth following high school graduation; and to recommend various recruiting and advertising strate- gies and incentive programs to encourage enlistment. In the first phase of its work, the committee confirmed that propensity for military service was declining. In 2002, the committee published Attitudes, Aptitudes, and Aspirations of American Youth: Implications for Military Recruitment. One outcome of the first phase was the recognition that current mili- tary research on advertising and recruiting often lacked long-term objec- tives and coordination across relevant research topics and methodologies. As a result, the committee embarked on a second phase: to develop an evaluation framework to assist the Defense Department and the Services in making informed decisions on the effectiveness of various recruiting policies and mixes of recruiting resources. This report is the product of the committee's second phase of study. . . V11

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vIll PREFACE Several individuals provided the committee with useful information on evaluation strategies and current Defense Department advertising pro- grams. First, we would like to thank Robert Hornik, Annenberg School of Communication, University of Pennsylvania, and lames Dertouzos, RAND Corporation, for their excellent presentations on research methodology. We would also like to extend our gratitude to Heather LeFevre and Ian Ross, of Mullen, for their presentation on the military's joint advertising program; to lay Cronin, of I. Walter Thompson, for his presentation on Marine Corps advertising; and to Cot. Greg Parlier, U.S. Army Aviation and Missile System Support, for the information he provided on the Army's recruiting and advertising programs. We express appreciation to our sponsor, the Office of Assistant Secre- tary of Defense for Force Management Policy, for its interest and guidance. Particular thanks are due to Curt Gilroy and to lane Arabian. In the course of preparing this report, each member of the committee took an active role in drafting chapters, leading discussions, and reading and commenting on successive drafts. We are deeply indebted to all for their broad scholarship and their cooperation and spirit. The committee is also particularly indebted to Bruce Orvis, RAND Corporation, who served as a consultant to the committee. He drafted the chapter on determining optimal types of incentives and provided many insights regarding material in other chapters of the report. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with pro- cedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integ- rity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Morton G. Ender, Department of Behavioral Sciences and Leadership, United States Military Academy; Lawrence Goldberg, Cost Analysis and Research Division, Institute for Defense Analyses; Stanley A. Horowitz, Cost Analysis and Research Division, Institute for Defense Analyses; lames Hosek, Economics and Statistics Group, RAND Corporation; W.S. Sellman, Human Resources Research Organization; and Bruce G. Vanden Bergh, Department of Advertising, Michigan State University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many construc- tive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the con- clusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert Linn,

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PREFACE School of Education, University of Colorado. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an indepen- dent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with insti- tutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully consid- ered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. Staff of the National Research Council made important contributions to our work in many ways. We extend particular thanks to Marilyn Dabady for her outstanding efforts as a senior research associate. We are also grateful to Wendy Keenan, the committee's senior project assistant, who was indispensable in organizing meetings, arranging travel, compil- ing agenda materials, and in managing the preparation of this report. Paul R. Sackett, Chair Anne S. Mavor, Study Director

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Contents Executive Summary 1 Introduction 2 Theoretical Approaches 3 Monitoring Trends in Youth Attitudes, Values, and Propensity 4 Advertising Planning: Generative and Evaluative Approaches 68 5 Determining Optimal Levels of Advertising and Recruiting Resources 6 The Timing and Levels of Joint and Service-Specific Advertising 7 Determining Optimal Types of Incentives 8 Performance Management of Recruiters 9 Conclusions and Recommendations 9 18 40 References Appendix: Biographical Sketches Index 90 112 127 146 159 172 179 185

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