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Issues and Opportunities Regarding the U.S. Space Program A Summary Report of a Workshop on National Space Policy Radford Byerly, Jr. University of Colorado Richard B. Leshner and Pamela L. Whitney National Research Council Space Studies Board Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences NMIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF JOE INTRO - L AMD~f~ THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.eclu

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This study was supported by Contract NASW-01001 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authorts) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the agency that proviclect support for the project. International Stanciarct Book Number: 0-309-09146-2 (book) International Stanclarct Book Number: 0-309-53010-5 (PDF) Copies of this report are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board National Research Council 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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THE NIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Am| 0| Mantel Entreeal3Me~e The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of ctistinguishect scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, clecticatect to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the fecleral government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, uncler the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the fecleral government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages eclucation and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Acaclemy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts uncler the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the fecleral government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of mectical care, research, and eclucation. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broact community of science and technology with the Acaclemy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the fecleral government. Functioning in accordance with general policies cleterminect by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is aciministerect jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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OTHER REPORTS SPACE STUDIES BOARD "Assessment of NASA's Draft 2003 Space Science Enterprise Strategy" (2003) "Assessment of NASA's Draft 2003 Earth Science Enterprise Strategy" (2003) Satellite Observations of the Earth's Environment: Accelerating the Transition of Research to Operations (2003) Steps to Facilitate Principal Investigator-Led Earth Science Missions (2003) The Sun to the Earth and Beyond: Panel Reports (2003) Assessment of Directions in Microgravity and Physical Sciences Research at NASA (2002) Assessment of the Usefulness and Availability of NASA's Earth and Space Science Mission Data (2002) Factors Affecting the Utilization of the International Space Station for Research in the Biological and Physical Sciences (2002) Life in the Universe: An Examination of U.S. and International Programs in Astrobiology (2002) New Frontiers in the Solar System: An Integrated Exploration Strategy (2002) Review of NASA's Earth Science Enterprise Applications Program Plan (2002) "Review of the Redesigned Space Interferometry Mission (SIM)" (2002) The Sun to the Earth and Beyond: A Decadal Research Strategy in Solar and Space Physics (2002) Safe on Mars: Precursor Measurements Necessary to Support Human Operations on the Martian Surface (2002) Toward New Partnerships in Remote Sensing: Government, the Private Sector, and Earth Science Research (2002) Using Remote Sensing in State and Local Government: Information for Management and Decision Making (2002) Assessment of Mars Science and Mission Priorities (2001 ~ The Mission of Microgravity and Physical Sciences Research at NASA (2001) The Quarantine and Certification of Martian Samples (2001) Readiness Issues Related to Research in the Biological and Physical Sciences on the International Space Station (2001) "Scientific Assessment of the Descoped Mission Concept for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST)" (2001) Signs of Life: A Report Based on the April 2000 Workshop on Life Detection Techniques (2001) Transforming Remote Sensing Data into Information and Applications (2001) U.S. Astronomy and Astrophysics: Managing an Integrated Program (2001) AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD An Assessment of NASA's Aeronautics Technology Program (2003) Securing the Future of U.S. Air Transportation: A System in Peril (2003) An Assessment of NASA's Pioneering Revolutionary Technology Program (2003) For Greener Skies: Reducing Environmental Impacts of Aviation (2002) Safe on Mars: Precursor Measurements Necessary to Support Human Operations on the Martian Surface (2002) Commercial Supersonic Technology: The Way Ahead (2002) Thermionics Quo Vadis? An Assessment of the DTRA's Advanced Thermionics Research and Development Program (2001) Laying the Foundation for Space Solar Power: An Assessment of NASA's Space Solar Power Investment Strategy (2001) Design in the New Millennium: Advanced Engineering Environments Phase 2 (2000) Engineering Challenges to the Long-Term Operation of the International Space Station (2000) Limited copies of these reports are available free of charge from: Space Studies Board ssb~nas.edu and Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board aseb~nas.edu 1V

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2003 SPACE POLICY WORKSHOP ORGANIZING COMMITTEE Members LENNARD A. FISK, University of Michigan, Chair DONALD L. CROMER, USAF (retirecl) and Hughes Space and Communications Company (retirecl) STEVEN FLAJSER, Loral Space and Communications, Ltct. DON P. GIDDENS, Georgia Institute of Technology WILLIAM W. HOOVER, U.S. Air Force (retirecl) MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California, Los Angeles GEORGE PAULIKAS, The Aerospace Corporation (retired) ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research Rapporteur RADFC)RD BYERLY, JR., University of Colorado Stagy PAMELA L. WHITNEY, Senior Staff Officer RICHARD B. LESHNER, Research Associate CLAUDETTE BAYLOR-FLEMING, Senior Program Assistant CELESTE NAYLOR, Senior Program Assistant v

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SPACE STUDIES BOARD LENNARD A. FISK, University of Michigan, Chair GEORGE A. PAULIKAS, The Aerospace Corporation (retired), Vice Chair J. ROGER P. ANGEL, University of Arizona ANA P. BARROS, Harvard University RETA F. BEEBE, New Mexico State University ROGER D. BLANDFORD, Stanford University JAMES L. BURCH, Southwest Research Institute RADFORD BYERLY, JR., University of Colorado HOWARD M. EINSPAHR, Bristol-Myers Squibb Pharmaceutical Research Institute (retired) STEVEN H. FLAJSER, Loral Space and Communications, Ltcl. MICHAEL H. FREILICH, Oregon State University DON P. GIDDENS, Georgia Institute of Technology/Emory University DONALD INGBER, Harvard Medical School RALPH H. JACOBSON, The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory (retired) TAMARA E. JERNIGAN, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory MARGARET G. KIVELSON, University of California, Los Angeles CALVIN W. LOWE, Bowie State University BRUCE D. MARCUS, TRW, Inc. (retired) HARRY Y. McSWEEN, JR., University of Tennessee DENNIS W. READEY, Colorado School of Mines ANNA-LOUISE REYSENBACH, Portland State University ROALD S. SAGDEEV, University of Maryland CAROLUS J. SCHRIJVER, Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research MITCHELL SOGIN, Marine Biological Laboratory C. MEGAN URRY, Yale University J. CRAIG WHEELER, University of Texas, Austin JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Director V1

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AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD WILLIAM W. HOOVER, USAF (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia, Chair RUZENA K. BAJCSY, University of California, Berkeley JAMES (MICKY) BLACKWELL, Lockheed Martin (retired), Marietta, Georgia EDWARD M. BOLEN, General Aviation Manufacturers Association, Washington, D.C. ANTHONY J. BRODERICK, Aviation Safety Consultant, Catlett, Virginia SUSAN M. COUGHLIN, Aviation Safety Alliance, Washington, D.C. ROBERT L. CRIPPEN, Thioko! Propulsion (retired), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida DONALD L. CROMER, USAF (retired) and Hughes Space and Communications (retired), Falibrook, California JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland RICHARD GOLASZEWSKI, GRA Incorporated, Jenkintown, Pennsylvania S. MICHAEL HUDSON, Rolls-Royce North America (retired), Indianapolis, Indiana JOHN L. JUNKINS (NAE), Texas A&M University, College Station JOHN M. KLINEBERG, Space Systems/Loral (retired), Rec~wooct City, California ILAN M. KROO, Stanford University, Stanford, California JOHN K. LAUBER, Airbus North America, Inc., Washington, D.C. GEORGE K. MUELLNER, The Boeing Company, Seal Beach, California DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MALCOLM O'NEILL, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland DIANNE S. (WILEY) PALMER, The Boeing Company, Washington, D.C. CYNTHIA SAMUELSON, Logistics Management Institute, McLean, Virginia KATHRYN C. THORNTON, University of Virginia, Charlottesville HANSEL E. TOOKES II, Raytheon International (retired), Falls Church, Virginia ROBERT W. WALKER, WexTer and Walker Public Policy Associates, Washington, D.C. THOMAS L. WILLIAMS, Northrop Grumman, Bethpage, New York GEORGE LEVIN, Director . . V11

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PREPUBLICATION COPY Subject to Further Editorial Correctior. ., . vail

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Preface The NASA Authorization Act of 1958 (anct its amendments) set very broact objectives for the U.S. civil space program. They include, inter aTia, expansion of human knowledge of the Earth and space, development and operation of space vehicles, and preservation of U.S. leadership in aeronautical and space science and technology. In May 1961, President Kennedy set the nation on an explicit course of human exploration when he proposed "achieving the goal, before this clecacle is out, of lancting a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth." Kennecly's decision was very much influenced by desires to surpass the Soviet Union in space achievements. Following the Apollo program the roles and direction of human spaceflight often have been controversial and uncertain. Many blue-ribbon panels have acictressect the issue, sometimes from the limited perspective of what should be the nation's goals in human spaceflight and on other occasions from a broacler perspective that examined the space program in its entirety. The aftermath of the shuttle Columbia tragedy in February 2003 initiated a growing public debate over the purpose and future of the U.S. civil space program. At its 141st meeting, the Space Studies Board (SSB), in collaboration with the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (ASEB), organized a workshop for the purpose of contributing their collective experience and expertise to this debate, as well as to encourage a continuing broact national discussion about the future direction of the U.S. civil space program. The workshop took place November 12 and 13, 2003, at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the National Academies in Irvine, California. Including the participating members of the SSB and ASEB, a total of 55 invitees engaged in a series of five pane! discussions and open general discussions over the course of the ciay-ancl-a-half event. The workshop agenda is incluclect in Appendix A of this report, and a list of the participants and invited guests is incluclect in Appendix B. The workshop was intenclect to explore aspects of the broact question, What should be the principal purposes, goals, and priorities of the U.S. civil space program? (The complete statement of task is provided in Appendix C.) The goal of the workshop was not to develop definitive answers but to air a range of views and perspectives that will serve to inform later broad public and political discussion of such questions. Therefore this report represents a factual summary, prepared by the rapporteur, Radford Byerly, with staff assistance, of the proceedings of the workshop, including summaries of individual presentations. It should not be taken as a consensus report of the SSB or ASEB or of the National Research Council. The charge for the workshop included broad questions about the principal purposes, goals, and priorities of the U.S. civil space program. All speakers and participants were encouraged to consider the questions in their written abstracts and oral remarks. In addition, the opening of each chapter outlines specific questions the speakers were to address in the workshop sessions, including issues about the contributions of science and exploration, the economic contributions of space, space and foreign policy, and interactions among national security, military, and civilian space efforts. SSB Chair Lennard Fisk, in his opening remarks, also referred to the broad questions and multiple factors that can contribute to raising the level of debate on what the nation should be doing in space, and he outlined the objectives of each session. It was in this spirit of the breadth of issues influencing the space program that the workshop was held. In the end, rather less discussion time was devoted to the space and Earth science programs than to the human spaceflight program, largely because the participants saw the latter as being more problematic and less robust than the former. Participants observed attributes of the science programs that were missing in the human exploration program and saw the opportunity to apply lessons learned from the comparison for the improvement of the human spaceflight program. This report is organized according to the following approach: Chapter 1 provides a brief overall 1X

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summary of cross-cutting themes and issues that arose cluring the workshop. Chapter 2 introduces key policy documents and statements that shape the environment toclay for discussing the future of the U.S. civil space program and summarizes the opening remarks of ASEB and SSB Chairs William Hoover and Lennarct Fisk. Chapters 3 through 8 summarize the panelists' remarks and general discussions of each of the workshop sessions. Appendix D provides biographical material on the workshop speakers, and Appendix E presents extenclect abstracts prepared by the invited panelists. x

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Acknowlecigment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in ctraft form by inctivicluals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research CounciT's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this inclepenclent review is to provide canctict and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional stanclarcts for objectivity, eviclence, and responsiveness to the stucly charge. The review comments and ctraft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following inctivicluals for their review of this report: Lewis Branscomb, Harvard University (Emeritus), Martin E. Glicksman, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, John Logsclon, George Washington University, John McElroy, University of Texas at Arlington (retirect), and Dava J. Newman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Although the reviewers listed above have proviclect many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor ctict they see the final ctraft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Mary J. Osborn, University of Connecticut Health Center. Appointed by the National Research Council, she was responsible for making certain that an inclepenclent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully consiclerecl. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the rapporteurs and the institution. X1

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PREPUBLICATION COPY Subject to Further Editorial Correction x~

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Contents SUMMARY INTRODUCTION ORIGINS OF U.S. SPACE POLICY RATIONALES FOR THE SPACE PROGRAM: SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND EXPLORATION RATIONALES FOR THE SPACE PROGRAM: NATIONAL SECURITY, COMMERCE, AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 6 8 14 19 24 GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF A 21st-CENTURY SPACE POLICY 29 BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR FORGING A 21 st-CENTURY SPACE POLICY 34 COMING TO CLOSURE APPENDIXES 38 A Workshop Agencla 45 B Workshop Participants 47 C Statement of Task D Biographies ofWorkshop Speakers 50 E Abstracts Prepared by Workshop Panelists 53 x~

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PREPUBLICATION COPY Subject to Further Editorial Correction x~v