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Chapter 1
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
The panel's charge was to assess the capability of the U.S. to meet
current and anticipated titanium needs. In the past, the U.S. titanium
industry served the nation's needs well under difficult circumstances.
Major among these were sudden cycles of severe shortages, hasty
construction of additional capacity, and ruinous overcapacities. The
latest titanium shortage started in the last month of 1978 and ended in
the first months of 1981. It was caused by unexpected demand followed by
hedge buying. No shortage appears likely through the mid-1980s.
The U.S. titanium industry excels in melting, alloying, mill
processing, and heat treating. Its mill product quality is unsurpassed.
Its titanium sponge pioneer production plants, however, are tending
towards obsolescence. Their modernization would be desirable.
Advanced-technology, greenfield, titanium-sponge plants are being built
in the United States. Although proportionately small in terms of total
U.S. sponge manufacturing capacity, these plants are an encouraging
sign. Well-established government incentives that have been successful
in encouraging the building of greenfield plants in other industries
would be desirable to help modernize aging U.S. titanium sponge plants.
Government research and development assistance to aid in the full and
timely exploitation of titanium's major technologic opportunities also is
desirable.
Conclusions
The main conclus ions o f the panel are:
The U.S. titanium industry had the last opportunity to commercialize
a new tonnage structural metal. The opportunity arose from the
coincidence in 1948 of the following occurrences: successful
completion of a decade's piloting of the Kroll titanium sponge
process by the U.S. Bureau of Mines, the advent of the jet engine,
and the "heating up" of the Cold War. With massive government
support, the U. S. industry quickly became the world leader in
titanium sponge production, melting, alloying, mill processing, and
heat treating. It retains that lead in all respects except for the
production of sponge. The Soviets and Japanese have more modern, and
probably lower cost, plants producing higher quality sponge.
Moreover, the Soviet Union has considerably higher sponge capacity
than the United States.
1
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2. The obsolescence of the U. S. titanium sponge pioneer plants does not
at feet the quality of mill products made from their sponge . U. S .
titanium mill products are at least the equal of any produced
elsewhere . ~ Broader implications of U.S . sponge plant obsolescence
are out lined in the Foreword and Chapter 2 ~ .
3.
5.
Several U.S. entrepreneurs are piloting, or building, production
plants with the most advanced Kroll and electrowinning processes.
With appropriate government support, U.S. sponge facilities also can
become at least as ef f icient and productive as any in the world .
There are no crippling titanium ore problems. The great majority (93
percent) of TiO2 ore is used in the United States for pigment; only
the remaining 7 percent is used f or metal . There are large TiO2
ore reserves both in the United States and abroad. Although
available domestically, about 55 percent of U. S . titanium ore
consumption is imported; for economic reasons. Hence, ore for U.S .
titanium metal is triply secure: large domestic reserves are being
conserved by the use of import s, only 7 percent of U. S . total
consumption is for metal, and stocks for pigment manufacture could
provide an emergency supply of ore for metal.
The ma jor variables in titanium sponge manufacture are: the choice
of reductant, either magnesium or sodium, and the choice of where to
vacuum distill off the last, but degrading, traces of by-product
chloride--either by the 1950s method of acid leaching followed by
vacuum melting (distillation occurs incidentally during vacuum
melting) or by separate vacuum distillation of sponge . For Krol 1
process greenf ield plants, the latter choice generally is thought to
be the better method.
6. Titanium's growth appears to be following the familiar "S" growth
curve of aluminum and magnesium but the curve is steeper in keeping
with the ever-increasing tempo of the times. The key question now is
at what tonnage level titanium's growth curve will start to plateau.
The sharp ups and downs characteristic of a structural metal's
initial decades begin to smooth as diverse industrial uses start to
dominate its market. Accordingly, the principal hope f or a smoother
titanium supply-demand relationship has greatly increased industrial
use. Now comprising one-fourth of the total U.S. titanium mill
product market, industrial applications might rise beyond half the
total within the next several decades if present trends continue and
if one or more very large industrial possibilities, now just on the
horizon, are fully realized. Examples are pipe for deep-hole,
sour-gas wells, accelerated applications in the chemical process
industry, and more remotely, heat exchangers for the ocean thermal
energy conversion (see Chapter 10~.
A major reason for the obsolescence of the U.S. titanium sponge
pioneer plants was the repeated sharp swings in mill product
consumption (see Figure 1~. Repeatedly, U.S. titanium sponge
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manufacturers misperceived prospects of new military aircraft for
actual demand; they installed new capacity to meet great expected
demand only to f ind the plans sharply reduced or completely
cancelled. The result has been chronic overcapacity, that has led to
product prices too low to provide sufficient profits to justify new
investment needed to increase capacity, quality, and productivity.
8. The 1979-1980 shortage was due largely to hedge buying by commercial
aircraf t manufacturers responding to the upward spurt in commercial
aero space activity.
9. As in other periods of sponge shortage, U.S. titanium sponge
manufacturers added incrementally to existing plants, and the
Japanese increased their sponge capacity 53 percent in 1980. This
increased capacity, plus the coincidental f all in the U. S . economy
and the downturn in the commercial aerospace boom, restored moderate
excess titanium sponge and mill processing capacities. It now
appears that sponge and f orging capabilities will be adequate t o
prevent large shortages into at least the mid-1980s.
10. Greenfield titanium sponge plants may require three to five years for
completion, and adequate U.S. titanium sponge capability after the
mid-1980s requires immediate planning. In view of repeated past
demonstrations of the lack of reliance that investors can place on
the tentative plans of military and aerospace needs, some government
guarantees will be required to justify investment in greenfield
titanium sponge plants. The examples of International Ti tanium,
Inc., D-H Titanium, and Albany Titanium, however, suggest that
perhaps this may not be necessary.
11. Experience going back at least to the Korean War shows that
guaranteed purchase of product for a strategic stockpile is an
effective way for the government to encourage the building of plants
in the national interest when private investment is not justified.
(An economic stockpile is, in contrast to a strategic one, a
disincentive. ~ Floor price contracts are particularly effective.
Other proven incentives are accelerated tax amortization and added
tax credits for research and development.
12. The titanium industry piloted and developed vacuum arc remelting into
a relatively complex and generally quite satisfactory industrial
art. However, ingots larger than the 20,000-lb size currently
produced and rectangular-section ingots for slab rolling are
desirable in the near future.
13. Several thousand titanium alloys have been research melted and tested
over the past 30 years. From these, approximately 100 alloy
compositions were commercialized. In turn, only about 10 of these
are now commonly in use in the United States (see Chapter 7~. In
general, these 10 offer the most needed combinations of properties,
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and even today, refinements on them are being developed. However, no
breakthroughs are foreseen in the traditional alpha, beta, and
alpha-beta titanium alloys, even though 30 years of titanium alloy
development seems to short a period to have exhausted all alloying
potentialities. Research and development activity in titanium alloys
has been intensive and has benefited from the previous century's
extensive new knowledge and ins trumentation in iron, nickel, copper,
aluminum and magnesium. Accordingly, the only important titanium
alloy advances foreseen by the panel are in the somewhat exotic
fields of the aluminides (see Chapter 7 ~ and of rapid solidif ication
technology (RST) products (see Chapter 11~.
14. lIigh-temperature and high-flow stresses typify the working of
titanium and titanium alloy ingots into mill products. Refinements
to ensure optimum microstructures have been established in pilot
production.
15. A detailed study of the titanium production cycle identified
bottlenecks impeding optimum production at each operation (see
Chapter 8~. Among the more important are: the small-size reaction
pots and the inefficient means of removing sponge from the reaction
pots; the tailor-made construction of consumable electrodes for
melting and the necessity for triple melting of some ingots; the
custom-job-shop character of titanium production with high costs and
inefficiencies associated with its batch-type operation; the
necessity for extensive ingot and bloom conditioning before and after
primary fabrication; and the inadequacies of metal heating and
handling equipment and procedures.
16. Titanium has three major application fields: military aerospace,
commerc ial aerospace, and industrial (see Figure 1 and Chapter 9~.
Military jets were the major factor in starting the titanium
industry, but commercial jets have grown increasingly important as
have a number of industrial uses.
17 . The U. S . titanium industry is at an early growing stage in its
development; most of its present ma jar applications appear f irm, and
prospects seem good that large new applications will develop. No one
can know the future of a commodity, especially two decades ahead.
Titanium mill product consumption has more than doubled during the
past decade. Projecting a 7 percent growth rate from a 1980 base of
27,000 tons of mill products, U.S. consumption by 2000 is estimated
to be about 100, 000 tons of mill products. That may appear
optimistic to many, but the extrapolation has a seemingly reasonable
basis. However, a minority of the panel members do not share this
optimism.
18. Processing as-won metal to the finished end item with the least cost,
energy, work, and cross-sectional deformation has been termed
near-net-shape processing and is possibly one of the largest
technologic opportunities in the titanium processing f ield. The Air
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Force and Navy have sponsored important advances in this f ield with
complex-shape end items (see Chapter 11) . Precision casting,
precision powder molding, and superplastic forming and diffusion
bonding are established, notably successful examples of
near-net-shape processing. Titanium tonnage, powder metallurgy (TPM)
aims to apply near-net-shape goals to the processing of mill
products. Although there is no precedent for TPM in the tonnage
structural metal field, the possibility for titanium merits
examination (see Chapter 11~.
19. Reliable and continuously updated estimates of projected military
requirements for titanium, to the extent that military security
permits, would be very valuable for the industry. Even if the
material requirements of all weapons systems were consolidated to
preserve military security, the totals would be very useful to all
concerned .
Recommendations
Based on personal observations of the panel members and their
conclusions on the status of the United States titanium industry, the
following recommendations are offered for consideration by appropriate
government agencies:
2.
4.
1. If the government concludes that the United States requires more
greenfield titanium sponge production capacity than the private
sector is able to finance itself, cognizant government agencies
should use procurement for the U.S. National Stockpile to encourage
the pioneer titanium sponge producers to modernize their present
plants and to encourage them and others to build more ef f icient
greenfie~d plants (e.g., by multiyear, floor-price contracts).
The U.S. National Stockpile should remain strategic as was intended
by the law that created it.
Ad hoc panels should be sponsored to develop and document
recommendations concerning the size, quality, alloy content (if any),
and forms (e.g., ingot and, possibly, certain mill products) of
titanium for the U.S. National Stockpile. All incentive stockpile
purchases should conform strictly to these specifications, and all
stockpile sponge not meeting the new specifications should be
replaced.
Additional incentives to encourage advanced-technology greenfield
plants (e.g. accelerated tax amortization and additional tax credits)
for research and development should be considered by appropriate
government agencies.
Stepped-up government support f or near-net-shape technology should be
provided for small (a few tens of pounds maximum), complex shapes,
expanding the current excellent programs of the Air Force and Navy.
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Large quantities (up to many tons) of simple-shape mill products,
such as strip and extrusions, produced by direct powder processing
appear to have important economic potential . Thi s conclusion i s
based on just released and hitherto trade conf idential inf ormation
(see Appendix K). An appropriate government agency, (e.g., the
U. S. Bureau of Mines or the Manufacturing Technology branch of the
Air Force Materials Laboratory) should sponsor a detal led calculation
comparison of all the resources (including energy, materials, time,
in-process inventories, yields, labor, and capital) required under
optimum conditions to produce typical mill products such as alloy
strip, bar, tubing, extrusions, and forgings by the present
custom-job shop process versus all the resources required by tonnage
powder metallurgy. If the TPM shows important savings at reasonable
assumed powder costs (e.g., double or triple the cost of sponge),
research and development of low-cost, high-purity titanium powder
should be considered. If this effort is succesful, programs for
titanium TPM for strip and extrusions should be considered.
Bottlenecks to the efficient operation of the U.S. titanium industry
are evident in each of its winning, (conversion and sponge production
processes), and manufacturing steps (see Chapter 8~. Increased
research and development and Technology Modernization Program (see
Appendix I) support should be given by appropriate government
agencies to widen the ef f art to minimize or eliminate these
bott lenecks.
8. The Department of Defense should make available to the materials
community continuously updated, aggregate totals of it s mill produc t
requirements. If these needs are known in advance, critical
shortages can be anticipated and can be corrected or minimized.
9. Research and development should be sponsored to elucidate the
me chanisms whereby rare earth additions to titanium greatly improve
hot workability and yields from titanium alloy ingots and then to
develop process controls that will make their production use feasible.
10. Research and development should be sponsored to explore and fully
exploit the potential of rapidly solidif fed titanium alloys.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
mill products
