National Academies Press: OpenBook

Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us (2001)

Chapter: Appendix C: Phase I Report Executive Summary

« Previous: Appendix B: Data Sources
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Phase I Report Executive Summary." National Research Council. 2001. Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10021.
×

Appendix C
Phase I Report Executive Summary

The Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs was formed in early 1998 in response to a request from the Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) of the Executive Office of the President to study the data and research needed for national policy on illegal drugs. The committee’s first task, the subject of this report, was to assess two recent cost-effectiveness studies on cocaine control policy: one by RAND, Controlling Cocaine: Supply Versus Demand Programs (Rydell and Everingham, 1994), prepared for ONDCP and the U.S. Army, and one by the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), An Empirical Examination of Counter drug Interdiction Program Effectiveness (Crane, Rivolo, and Comfort, 1997), prepared for the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, Drug Enforcement Policy and Support, U.S. Department of Defense. The committee examined the assumptions, data, methods, and findings of the RAND and IDA studies.

The RAND study is best thought of as conceptual research offering a coherent way to think about the cocaine problem. The study documents a significant effort to identify and model important elements of the market for cocaine. It represents a serious attempt to formally characterize the complex interaction of producers and users and the subtle process through which alternative cocaine control policies may affect consumption and prices. The study establishes an important point of departure for the development of richer models of the market for cocaine and for empirical research applying such models to evaluate alternative policies.

However, the RAND study does not yield usable empirical findings

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Phase I Report Executive Summary." National Research Council. 2001. Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10021.
×

on the relative cost-effectiveness of alternative policies in reducing cocaine consumption. The study makes many unsubstantiated assumptions about the processes through which cocaine is produced, distributed, and consumed. Plausible changes in these assumptions can change not only the quantitative findings reported, but also the main qualitative conclusions of the study. Hence the study’s findings do not constitute a persuasive basis for the formation of cocaine control policy.

The IDA study is best thought of as a descriptive time-series analysis of statistics relevant to analysis of the market for cocaine in the United States. The study makes a useful contribution by displaying a wealth of empirical time-series evidence on cocaine prices, purity, and use since 1980. Efforts to understand the operation of the market for cocaine must be cognizant of the empirical data. The IDA study presents many of those data and calls attention to some intriguing empirical associations among the various series.

However, the IDA study does not yield useful empirical findings on the cost-effectiveness of interdiction policies to reduce cocaine consumption. Major concerns about data and methods make it impossible to accept the IDA findings as a basis for the assessment of interdiction policies. Numerous problems diminish the credibility of the cocaine price series developed in the study, and an absence of information prevents assessment of the procedure for selecting interdiction events. The conclusions drawn from these data rest on the assumption that all time-series deviations in cocaine price from an exponential decay path should be attributed to interdiction events, not to other forces acting on the market for cocaine. This foundation is too fragile to support the study’s conclusions or to serve as a basis for policy.

The process of scrutinizing the specifics of the RAND and IDA studies has helped the committee to frame the questions that it will now address in a broad study of how data and research may, in the future, better serve the objective of informing drug control policy.

SOURCE

National Research Council

1999 Assessment of Two Cost-Effectiveness Studies on Cocaine Control Policy. Committee on Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs. Charles F.Manski, John V. Pepper, and Yonette Thomas, editors. Committee on Law and Justice and Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Phase I Report Executive Summary." National Research Council. 2001. Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10021.
×
Page 319
Suggested Citation:"Appendix C: Phase I Report Executive Summary." National Research Council. 2001. Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10021.
×
Page 320
Next: Appendix D: How Do Response Problems Affect Survey Measurement of Trends in Drug Use? »
Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs: What We Don't Know Keeps Hurting Us Get This Book
×
Buy Hardback | $81.00 Buy Ebook | $64.99
MyNAP members save 10% online.
Login or Register to save!
Download Free PDF

How should the war on drugs be fought? Everyone seems to agree that the United States ought to use a combination of several different approaches to combat the destructive effects of illegal drug use. Yet there is a remarkable paucity of data and research information that policy makers require if they are to create a useful, realistic policy package-details about drug use, drug market economics, and perhaps most importantly the impact of drug enforcement activities.

Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs recommends ways to close these gaps in our understanding-by obtaining the necessary data on drug prices and consumption (quantity in addition to frequency); upgrading federal management of drug statistics; and improving our evaluation of prevention, interdiction, enforcement, and treatment efforts.

The committee reviews what we do and do not know about illegal drugs and how data are assembled and used by federal agencies. The book explores the data and research information needed to support strong drug policy analysis, describes the best methods to use, explains how to avoid misleading conclusions, and outlines strategies for increasing access to data. Informing America's Policy on Illegal Drugs also discusses how researchers can incorporate randomization into studies of drug treatment and how state and local agencies can compare alternative approaches to drug enforcement.

Charting a course toward a better-informed illegal drugs policy, this book will be important to federal and state policy makers, regulators, researchers, program administrators, enforcement officials, journalists, and advocates concerned about illegal drug use.

  1. ×

    Welcome to OpenBook!

    You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

    Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

    No Thanks Take a Tour »
  2. ×

    Show this book's table of contents, where you can jump to any chapter by name.

    « Back Next »
  3. ×

    ...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

    « Back Next »
  4. ×

    Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

    « Back Next »
  5. ×

    Switch between the Original Pages, where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

    « Back Next »
  6. ×

    To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter.

    « Back Next »
  7. ×

    Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

    « Back Next »
  8. ×

    View our suggested citation for this chapter.

    « Back Next »
  9. ×

    Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

    « Back Next »
Stay Connected!