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work, including: (1) workforce demographics, (2) technology, (3) the globalization of markets, and (4) organizational structures, policies, and procedures. The final section presents a summary of the implications of anticipated trends in work on the occurrence of musculoskeletal disorders.

TRENDS IN EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR AND OCCUPATION

Distribution of Workers

According to Franklin in the Monthly Labor Review (1997), the service-producing industries such as finance, government, health, transportation, communications, wholesale and retail trade, and utilities are the fastest-growing sector in the economy (see Table 9.1). In 1986, these industries represented 66 percent of all jobs; in 1996 they represented 71.2 percent; and by 2006, they are projected to reach 74 percent (almost 112 million jobs). In contrast, goods-producing industries such as mining, construction, and manufacturing declined from 22 percent (23.5 million jobs) in 1986 to 18.5 percent in 1996 and are projected to decline further to 16.2 percent by 2006 (23.4 million jobs). Although this sector is declining in relative terms, the absolute number of people employed is relatively constant due to an increase in total workforce size over the time frame. For our purposes, it is important to note that there are many physical jobs in the service industry (e.g., nursing, parcel delivery, maintenance) and many jobs with no physical demands beyond those traditionally associated with office work in the goods-producing industries (managers, accountants, etc.).

We can relate the sector of employment directly to the task demands through data collected between 1979 and 1993 and analyzed by sector. Landau et al. (1996) used a database of 3,893 jobs from the Arbeitswissenschaftliche Erhebungsverfahren zur Tätikgkeitsanalyse (AET) job analysis system that quantifies many aspects of task demands. Classifying jobs by sector using the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code shows which sectors were over- and underrepresented on each dimension of the task. Table 9.2 shows the job sectors that were overrepresented for each type of stressor. Further analysis of these data by gender shows that more men are engaged in heavy dynamic work; in the light active work category, men tended to work with heavier loads. Women's work focuses on more repetitive tasks. With regard to information processing work, men are more likely to hold jobs with high knowledge requirements and qualifications.

Table 9.3 (taken from Silvestri, 1997) shows the percentage of employment by major occupational group for 1986, 1996, and projected for 2006.



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