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APPENDIX C Supplement to Text The following two tables and the software supplement the text in chapter 10 "Future Revisions and Broader issues", section "Role of Uncertainty in Compensation". Table I. Summary of Table X (from Thompson et al., 1994) Site ERR/Sv Std Err 0.29 0.28 0.32 0.72 0.21 0.49 0.12 0.18 0.8 0.95 Oral Esophagus Stomach Colon Rectum Liver Gallbladder Pancreas Respiratory Trachea Skin Breast Uterus Ovary Prostate Bladder Kidney 0.71 Nervous system 0.26 Thyroid 1.2 0.255 0.3025 0.085 0.2525 0.23 0.19 0.2475 0.2675 0.175 0.2 0.3725 0.275 0.0975 0.545 0.3525 0.4575 0.5775 0.3825 0.405 1.6 -0.15 0.99 0.29 41

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Table 2. Random-Effects Analysis of Sites in Thompson et al. (1994) Table X Thompson et al. Analysis Random-Effects Analysis Posterior estimates Site ERR/Sv Lci Uci ERR/Sv Lci Oral 0.29 -0.09 0.93 0.42 0.10 0.74 Esophagus 0.28 -0.21 1 0.43 0.10 0.77 Stomach 0.32 0.16 0.5 0.35 0.13 0.57 Colon 0.72 0.29 1.3 0.55 0.23 0.88 Rectum 0.21 -0.17 0.75 0.38 0.07 0.70 Liver 0.49 0.16 0.92 0.48 0.19 0.78 GalIbladder 0.12 -0.27 0.72 0.36 0.04 0.69 Pancreas 0.18 -0.25 0.82 0.39 0.07 0.72 Respiratory 0.8 0.5 1.2 0.63 0.36 0.92 Trachea 0.95 0.6 I.4 0.68 0.37 0.98 Skin 1 0.41 1.9 0.57 0.22 0.92 Prostate 0.29 -0.21 1.2 0.44 0.10 0.79 Bladder 1 0.27 2.! 0.54 0.19 0.90 Kidney 0.71 -0.11 2.2 0.50 0.14 0.87 Nervous system 0.26 -0.23 1.3 0.44 0.10 0.79 42

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M:LN - Software for N-leve! analysis. Note --- read in data dinp to cl-c4 100000 spaces left on worksheet Type file name > solid.dat 1 2 0.29 0.255 1 4 0.28 0.3025 1 5 0.32 0.085 1 6 0.72 0.2525 1 7 0.21 0.23 1 8 0.49 0.19 1 9 0.12 0.2475 1 10 0.18 0.2675 1 11 0.8 0.175 1 120.950.2 1 13 1 0.3725 1 17 0.29 0.3525 1 19 1 0.4575 1 20 0.71 0.5775 1 21 0.26 0.3825 name cl 'cons' c2 '1ineno' c3 'rr' c4 'stUerr' iden 1 '1ineno' iden 2 'cons' expl 'cons' resp 'rr' setv 1 'cons' note --- set variance offset (var of estimate of err offset 1 from c4 note setv 2 'cons' batch 1 Batch mode is ON tole 3 maxit 20 note -- fit mode} start Convergence achieved note -- display mode! results rend 43

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LEV. PARAMETER (NCONV) ESTIMATE S. ERROR(U) PREY. ESTIM CORR. 1 CONS /CONS (1) 0.02878 0.02942 0.0288 fixed PARAMETER ESTIMATE S. ERROR(U) PREY. ESTIMATE CONS 0.4798 0.07837 0.4798 note -- use model results to form reliability coefficient rho calc c41=0.02878+c4*c4 calc c41=0.02878/c41 names c41 'rho' cl l 'predict' note -- form predictions based on estimated err, and rho calc cll='rho'*'rr'+(l-'rho')*0.4798 note -- form variance of model predictions note -- as var(rand_eff)*(l-rho)+var(fixed effect) calc c21=0.02878*(1-'rho')+0.07837*0.07837 calc c21=sgrt(c21) names c10 'RandEff cl l 'Predict' c20 'VarRE' names c21 'stUev~' print '1ineno"Predict"stUev~"rr"stUerr' LINENO N= 15 1 2.0000 2 4.0000 3 5.0000 4 6.0000 5 7.0000 6 8.0000 7 9.0000 8 10.000 9 11.000 10 12.000 11 13.000 12 17.000 13 19.000 14 20.000 15 21.000 PREDICT 15 15 0.42157 0.43200 0.35207 0.55451 0.38474 0.48432 0.36479 0.39381 0.63493 0.67655 0.56916 0.44411 0.54268 0.49809 0.44367 STDEV_P 15 15 0.16153 0.29000 0.16744 0.28000 0.10917 0.32000 0.16115 0.72000 0.15742 0.14885 0.16038 0.16330 0.14484 0.15126 0.17314 0.17178 0.17732 0.18065 0.17376 0.21000 0.49000 0.12000 0.18000 0.80000 0.95000 1.0000 0.29000 1.0000 0.71000 0.26000 note now do likelihood ratio test for nonzero variance like 99891 spaces left on worksheet 44 RR STDERR 0.25500 0.30250 0.085000 0.25250 0.23000 0.19000 0.24750 0.26750 0.17500 0.20000 0.37250 0.35250 0.45750 0.57750 0.38250

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-2*1Og(1h) is 7.70057 dinput to c41 99891 spaces left on worksheet Type file name > small.txt 1 .001 rcon c41 maxit 100 next Convergence achieved like 99904 spaces left on worksheet -2*log(1h) is 10.0264 stop 45