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Bibliography

A. PRIMARY REFERENCES

The following three major reports, which are the primary references cited in this document, summarize current progress and outline a set of strategies for advancing understanding of global change and sustainable development. These benchmark reports are actually syntheses of syntheses—they build on a much larger set of important disciplinary overview and strategy reports (see section B).

Environmental Science and Engineering for the 21st Century: The Role of the National Science Foundation, National Science Board, 2000

Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade, National Research Council, 1999

Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability, National Research Council, 1999

B. A SAMPLING OF BENCHMARK REPORTS AND RESEARCH AGENDAS

The following documents are illustrative examples of the wide range of reports that have helped set the national and international research and policy agendas in each of the disciplines they encompass. Each is a synthesis document based on a massive body of literature on global change and sustainability produced by both the NRC (see section C) and others.

Agenda 21, United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, 1992 Provides a comprehensive plan of action to be taken globally, nationally, and locally by organizations of the United Nations system, governments, and major groups in every area in which humans affect the environment.



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Page 12 3 Bibliography A. PRIMARY REFERENCES The following three major reports, which are the primary references cited in this document, summarize current progress and outline a set of strategies for advancing understanding of global change and sustainable development. These benchmark reports are actually syntheses of syntheses—they build on a much larger set of important disciplinary overview and strategy reports (see section B). Environmental Science and Engineering for the 21st Century: The Role of the National Science Foundation, National Science Board, 2000 Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade, National Research Council, 1999 Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability, National Research Council, 1999 B. A SAMPLING OF BENCHMARK REPORTS AND RESEARCH AGENDAS The following documents are illustrative examples of the wide range of reports that have helped set the national and international research and policy agendas in each of the disciplines they encompass. Each is a synthesis document based on a massive body of literature on global change and sustainability produced by both the NRC (see section C) and others. Agenda 21, United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, 1992 Provides a comprehensive plan of action to be taken globally, nationally, and locally by organizations of the United Nations system, governments, and major groups in every area in which humans affect the environment.

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Page 13 Biodiversity II: Understanding and Protecting Our Biological Resources, National Research Council, 1996 Calls attention to a most urgent global problem: the rapidly accelerating loss of plant and animal species to increasing human population pressures and the demands of economic development. Building a Foundation for Sound Environmental Decisions, National Research Council, 1997 Describes a framework for acquiring the knowledge needed to solve current recognized environmental problems and to be prepared for the kinds of environmental problems likely to emerge in the future. Clean Coastal Waters: Understanding and Reducing the Effects of Nutrient Pollution, National Research Council, 2000 Explains technical aspects of nutrient over-enrichment and proposes both immediate local action by coastal managers and a longer-term national strategy incorporating policy design, classification of affected sites, law and regulation, coordination, and communication. Earth Observations from Space: History, Promise, and Reality, National Research Council, 1995 Reviews the recent history of U.S. earth observation programs involved in environmental monitoring. The focus is on monitoring programs related to civilian needs. Ecological Indicators for the Nation, National Research Council, 2000 Identifies ecological indicators that can support U.S. policy making and also be adapted to decisions at regional and local levels. Effects of Past Global Change on Life, National Research Council, 1995 Explores what earth scientists are learning about the impact of large-scale environmental changes on ancient life—and how these findings may help us resolve today's environmental controversies. Environmentally Significant Consumption: Research Directions, National Research Council, 1997 Demonstrates that the relationship of consumption to the environment needs careful analysis by environmental and social scientists and conveys some of the excitement of treating the issue scientifically. From Monsoons to Microbes: Understanding the Ocean's Role in Human Health, National Research Council, 1999 Examines the links between the ocean's role in climate and impacts on human health, including storm-related deaths and injuries, infectious disease outbreaks, and toxic algal blooms. Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START) Implementation Plan 1997-2002, International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, 1998 Describes START's goals to promote regional global change science and to enhance the capacity of individuals, institutions, and developing regions to undertake such research.

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Page 14 Global Environmental Change: Understanding Human Dimensions, National Research Council, 1992 Offers a strategy for combining the efforts of natural and social scientists to better understand how our actions influence global change and how global change influences us. Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences, National Research Council, 2000 Describes some of the most important research challenges facing the environmental sciences in the coming decades. It notes the following priority research areas: biogeochemical cycles, biological diversity and ecosystem functioning, climate variability, hydrologic forecasting, infectious disease and the environment, institutions and resource use, land-use dynamics, and reinventing the use of materials. International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change, International Human Dimensions Programme, 2000 (http://ibm.rhrz.uni-bonn.de/IHDP) Outlines IHDP's role as an international interdisciplinary science program dedicated to promoting and coordinating research aimed at describing, analyzing, and understanding the human dimensions of global environmental change. Linking Science and Technology to Society's Environmental Goals, National Research Council, 1996 Provides current thinking and answers to the questions: Where should the United States focus its long-term efforts to improve the nation's environment? What are the nation's most important issues? What role should science and technology play in these issues? Nature's Numbers: Expanding the National Economic Accounts to Include the Environment, National Research Council, 1999 Responds to concerns about how the United States should make these measurements. Recommends how to incorporate environmental and other nonmarket measures into the nation's income and product accounts. Opportunities in the Hydrological Sciences, National Research Council, 1991 Explains how the science of water has historically played second fiddle to its applications and how we now must turn to the hydrologic sciences to solve some of the emerging problems. This first book of its kind presents a blueprint for establishing hydrologic science among the geosciences. Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base, National Research Council, 1992 Presents methods for assessing options to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, offset emissions, and assist humans and unmanaged systems of plants and animals adjust to the consequences of global warming. The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century, National Research Council, 1998 Presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators.

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Page 15 The Fifth Framework Programme of the European Community for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration Activities, 1998 to 2002, European Union, 1998 ( http://www.cordis.lu/fp5/home.html) Sets out priorities for the European Union's research, technological development, and demonstration activities for the period 1998–2002. These priorities have been selected on the basis of a set of common criteria reflecting the major concerns of increasing industrial competitiveness and the quality of life for European citizens. The IGBP in Action: The Work Plan 1994–1998. International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme, 1994 ( http://www.igbp.kva.se) Outlines a major international program to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical, and biological processes that regulate the total earth system, the unique environment that it provides for life, the changes that are occurring in this system, and the manner in which they are influenced by human actions. World in Transition: The Research Challenge, German Advisory Council on Global Change, 1997 Identifies alternatives for restructuring the research landscape, focusing primarily on a new “syndrome approach” for global change research. By applying this tool, scientists can systematically describe and analyze the set of symptoms exhibited by the earth system that occur in response to natural and human changes and thus elaborate response options. C. OTHER NRC REPORTS RELATED TO GLOBAL CHANGE AND SUSTAINABILITY Over 160 other significant NRC reports produced since 1990 on topics relevant to global change and sustainability are listed below. These reports have generally been produced by expert committees and have been thoroughly peer-reviewed. Although the reports listed in this section have, in part, formed the basis for the committee's findings and recommendations, the committee has not systematically reviewed each of them. The reports are listed here to give an indication of the breadth and penetration of analysis that has been conducted on these topics by the NRC over the past several years. This body of NRC studies complements hundreds of other major relevant reports produced throughout the world; for the sake of brevity, this larger U.S. and international collection of reports is not given here. This vast array of major reports is itself based on an even more massive quantity of research documented in tens of thousands of peer-reviewed journal articles on topics related to global change and sustainability. Atmospheric and Climate Variability and Change A Decade of International Climate Research—The First Ten Years of the World Climate Research Program, 1992 A Plan for a Research Program on Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate Change, 1996 Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems, 1999 Atmospheric Change and the North American Transportation Sector, 1998 Capacity of U.S. Climate Modeling to Support Climate Change Assessment Activities, 1999 Coastal Meteorology: A Review of the State of the Science, 1992 Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change: A Science Strategy, 1998 Enhancing Access to NEXRAD Data: A Critical National Resource, 1999

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Page 16 From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical Weather Prediction: Crossing the Valley of Death, 2000 GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate, 1994 Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program, 1996 National Academy of Sciences Colloquium: Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change, 1997 Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales, 1996 Ocean-Atmosphere Observations Supporting Short-Term Climate Predictions, 1994 Organizing U.S. Participation in GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System), 1995 Prospects for Extending the Range of Prediction of the Global Atmosphere, 1991 Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change, 2000 Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution, 1991 Solar Influences on Global Change, 1994 The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century, 1998 The Department of Energy's Atmospheric Chemistry Program: A Critical Review, 1991 Toward A New National Weather Service, Second Report, 1992 Understanding and Predicting Atmospheric Chemical Change: An Imperative for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, 1993 Behavioral, Health, and Social Dimensions Building a Foundation for Environmental Research, 1997 Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development, 1990 Effects of Past Global Change on Life, 1995 Environmentally Significant Consumption: Research Directions, 1997 Global Environmental Change: Understanding Human Dimensions, 1992 Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade, 1999 Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants: Advances and Opportunities, 1991 Linking Science and Technology to Society's Environmental Goals, 1996 Making Climate Forecasts Matter, 1999 People and Pixels: Linking Remote Sensing and Social Sciences, 1998 Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base, 1992 Science Priorities for the Human Dimensions of Global Change, 1994 Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, 1997 Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society, 1996 Coastal and Ocean Studies 50 Years of Ocean Discovery: National Science Foundation 1950–2000, 2000 Applications of Analytical Chemistry to Oceanic Carbon Cycle Studies, 1993 Bridging Boundaries Through Regional Marine Research, 2000 Environmental Science in the Coastal Zone, 1994 Global Ocean Science: Toward an Integrated Approach, 1999 Improving Interactions Between Coastal Science and Policy: Proceedings of the Gulf of Mexico Symposium, 1996; Proceedings of the California Symposium, 1995; Proceedings of the Gulf of Maine Symposium, 1995 Letter Report on Applications of Analytical Chemistry to Oceanic Carbon Cycle Studies, 1994 Managing Coastal Erosion, 1990 Oceanography in the Next Decade: Building New Partnerships, 1992 Opportunities in Ocean Sciences: Challenges on the Horizon, 1998 Physical Oceanography and Tracer Chemistry of the Southern Ocean, 1988 Priorities for Coastal Ecosystem Science, 1994 Research Opportunities in Oceanic Biology, 1993 Restoring and Protecting Marine Habitat: The Role of Engineering and Technology, 1994 Review of U.S. Planning for the Global Ocean Observing System, 1994 Science for Decision Making: Coastal and Marine Geology at the USGS, 1999 Science, Policy, and the Coast: Improving Decision Making, 1995 Sea-Level Change, 1990 The Global Ocean Observing System: Users, Benefits, and Priorities, 1997 The Meteorological Buoy and Coastal Marine Automated Network for the United State, 1998 The Ocean's Role in Global Change: Progress of Major Research Programs, 1994 The Ocean's Role in Global Change: The Contemporary System—An Overview of Major Research Programs, 1990

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Page 17 Hydrology and Water Resources A New Era for Irrigation, 1996 A Review of the USGS National Water Quatity Pilot Program, 1990 Alternatives for Ground Water Cleanup, 1994 Emerging Global Water and Energy Initiatives: An Integrated Perspective, 1999 Estimating Bounds on Extreme Precipitation Events, 1994 Flood Risk Management and the American River Basin: An Evaluation, 1995 GEWEX–CLIVAR: Coordination of U.S. Activities, 1998 Ground Water Recharge: Using Waters of Impaired Quality, 1994 Hydrologic Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey, 1999 Hydrologic Science Priorities for the U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Initial Assessment, 1999 Hydrologic Sciences: Taking Stock and Ahead, 1998 Identifying Future Drinking Water Contaminants, 1999 Innovations in Ground Water and Soil Cleanup, 1997 Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty, 1991 Meeting the Challenges of Megacities in the Developing World, 1998 Mexico City's Water Supply: Improving the Outlook for Sustainability, 1995 New Strategies for America's Watersheds, 1999 Nitrate and Nitrite in Drinking Water, 1995 Opportunities in the Hydrological Sciences, 1991 Regional Hydrology and the USGS Stream Gaging Network, 1992 Safe Water from Every Tap: Improving Water Service to Small Communities, 1996 Setting Priorities for Drinking Water Contaminants, 1998 The GEWEX Continental Scale International Project (GCIP): A Review of Progress and Opportunities, 1998 The GEWEX Global Water Vapor Project (GVaP): U.S. Opportunities, 1999 Valuing Ground Water, 1997 Water for the Future: The West Bank and Gaza Strip, Israel, and Jordan, 1999 Watershed Management for Potable Water Supply: Assessing the New York City Strategy, 2000 Watershed Research in the U.S. Geological Survey, 1997 Observational and Data Systems 1993 Review of the World Data Center-A for Meteorology and the National Climatic Data Center, 1994 A Scientific Assessment for a Third Flight of the Shuttle Radar Laboratory (SRL), Committee on Earth Studies Letter Report to Dr. Charles Kennel, NASA, April 4, 1995 Assessment of Satellite Earth Observation Programs, 1991 Climate Processing and Archive Strategies for NPP and NPOESS, 2000 Development and Application of Small Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radars, 1998 Issues in the Integration of Research and Operational Satellite Systems for Climate Research: I. Science and Design, 2000 Issues in the Integration of Research and Operational Satellite Systems for Climate Research: II. Implementation, 2000. On Climate Change Research Measurements from NPOESS, Committee on Earth Studies Letter Report to Dr. Ghassem Asrar, NASA, and Mr. Robert S. Winokur, NOAA, May 27, 1998 On NOAA Requirements for Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellites, Space Studies Board letter report to Mr. Russell Koffler, NOAA, 1992 On Research Uses of LANDSAT, Committee on Earth Studies Letter Report to Dr. Shelby Tilford, NASA, and Mr. Russell Koffler, NOAA, September 12, 1991 Research Opportunities in Remote Sensing 1993 Solving the Global Change Puzzle: A U.S. Strategy for Managing Data and Information, 1991 Polar Science Arctic Contributions to Social Science and Public Policy, 1993 Arctic Marine Monitoring, 1991 NOAA's Arctic Research Initiative: Proceedings of a Workshop, 1997 Ocean Drilling Research: An Arctic Perspective, 1999 Opportunities and Priorities in Arctic Geoscience, 1991 Science and Stewardship in the Antarctic, 1993 The United States in Antarctica: Comments from the Polar Research Board, 1997

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Page 18 Sustainable Development, Global Change, Natural Resources and Agriculture, and Environmental Technology A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program and NASA's Mission to Planet Earth/Earth Observing System, 1995 A Review of the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Letter Report, 1996 An Assessment of the Atlantic Bluefin Tuna, 1998 Aquaculture and Schistosomiasis, 1992 Assigning Economic Value to Natural Resources, 1994 Designing an Agricultural Genome Program, 1998 Dolphins and the Tuna Industry, 1992 Ecologically Based Pest Management: New Solutions for a New Century, 1996 Finding the Forest in the Trees: The Challenge of Combining Diverse Environmental Data, 1995 Forested Landscapes in Perspective: Prospects and Opportunities for Sustainable Management of America's Nonfederal Forests, 1997 Green Tech-Knowledge-y: Information and Knowledge Systems for Improving Environmental Efficiencies, 1999 Improving Fish Stock Assessments, 1998 Improving the Management of U.S. Marine Fisheries, 1994 Industrial Environmental Performance Metrics: Challenges and Opportunities, 1999 Letter Report by the CGCR and BSD Reviewing the USGCRP, 1996 Marine Aquaculture, 1992 Measures of Environmental Performance and Ecosystem Condition, 1999 Mineral Resources and Sustainability, 1996 Nature and Human Society: The Quest for a Sustainable World, 1999 On the Full and Open Exchange of Scientific Data, 1995 One Earth, One Future: Our Changing Global Environment, 1990 Regenerating Agriculture: Policies and Practice for Sustainability and Self-Reliance, 1995 Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, 1990 Review of Northeast Fishery Stock Assessments, 1998 Saline Agriculture: Salt-Tolerant Plants for Developing Countries, 1990 Sharing the Fish: Toward a National Policy on Individual Fishing Quotas, 1998 Soil and Water Quality: An Agenda for Agriculture, 1993 Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the Humid Tropics, 1993 Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education in the Field: A Proceedings, 1991 Sustaining Marine Fisheries, 1998 The Community Development Quota Program in Alaska, 1998 The Greening of Industrial Ecosystems, 1994 The Industrial Green Game: Implications for Environmental Design and Management, 1997 The U.S. Global Change Research Program: An Assessment of the FY 1991 Plans, 1990 The United States Global Change Research Program: Early Achievements and Future Decisions, 1992 Toward Sustainability: A Plan for Collaborative Research on Agriculture and Natural Resource Management, 1991 Toward Sustainability: Soil and Water Research Priorities for Developing Countries, 1991 Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest, 1996 Use of Reclaimed Water and Sludge in Food Crop Production, 1996 Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems, Biodiversity, and Biogeochemistry Biodiversity II: Understanding and Protecting Our Biological Resources, 1996 Biodiversity Conservation in Transboundary Protected Areas, 1996 Biological Nitrogen Fixation: Research Challenges, 1994 Conserving Biodiversity: A Research Agenda for Development Agencies, 1992 Ecological Indicators for the Nation, 2000 Environmental Issues in Pacific Northwest Forest Management, 2000 Forestry Research: A Mandate for Change, 1990 Freshwater Ecosystems: Revitalizing Educational Programs in Limnology, 1996 Global Change Ecosystems Research, 2000 Material Fluxes on the Surface of the Earth, 1994 Perspectives on Biodiversity: Valuing Its Role in an Ever-Changing World, 1999 Research to Protect, Restore, and Manage the Environment, 1993 Restoration of Aquatic Ecosystems: Science, Technology, and Public Policy, 1992 Science and the Endangered Species Act, 1995 Stemming the Tide: Controlling Introductions of Nonindigenous Species by Ships' Ballast Water, 1996 The Bering Sea Ecosystem, 1996 The Decline of the Sea Turtles, 1990 The Role of Terrestrial Ecosystems in Global Change: A Plan for Action, 1994

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Page 19 Understanding Marine Biodiversity: A Research Agenda for the Nation, 1995 Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries, 1995