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Ecological Monitoring of Genetically Modified Crops

A Workshop Summary by

Robert Pool, Ph.D., and

Joan Esnayra, Ph.D.

Board on Biology

Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Page i Ecological Monitoring of Genetically Modified Crops A Workshop Summary by Robert Pool, Ph.D., and Joan Esnayra, Ph.D. Board on Biology Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Page ii NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been prepared with funds provided by the Department of Energy, grant DEFG02-94ER61939, and the National Cancer Institute, contract No. N01-OD-4-2139. ISBN 0-309-07335-9 Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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Page iii THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal gov ernment. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in pro viding services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Page iv

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Page v PLANNING GROUP FOR THE WORKSHOP ON ECOLOGICAL MONITORING OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED CROPS BARBARA SCHAAL (Chair), Washington University DAVID ANDOW, University of Minnesota LYNN FREWER, Institute of Food Research, UK HENRY GHOLZ, University of Florida DONALD MATTISON, March of Dimes ALLISON SNOW, Ohio State University Science Writer ROBERT POOL, Tallahassee, Florida Staff JOAN ESNAYRA, Study Director JENNIFER KUZMA, Program Director JILL JOHNSTON, Intern DEREK SWEATT, Project Assistant ANDREW EASTON, Project Assistant

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Page vi STANDING COMMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURAL BIOTECHNOLOGY, HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT BARBARA SCHAAL (co chair), Washington University HAROLD VARMUS (co chair), Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center DAVID ANDOW, University of Minnesota NEAL FIRST, University of Wisconsin, Madison LYNN FREWER, Institute of Food Research, UK HENRY GHOLZ, National Science Foundation/University of Florida EDWARD GROTH III, Consumers Union ERIC HALLERMAN, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University CALESTOUS JUMA, Harvard University NOEL KEEN, University of California, Riverside SAMUEL LEHRER, Tulane University J. MICHAEL MCGINNIS, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation SANFORD MILLER, University of Texas PER PINSTRUP-ANDERSEN, International Food Policy Research Institute VERNON RUTTAN, University of Minnesota ELLEN SILBERGELD, University of Maryland ROBERT SMITH, R.E. Smith Consulting ALLISON SNOW, Ohio State University DIANA WALL, Colorado State University Staff JENNIFER KUZMA, Program Director KIM WADDELL, Project Officer DEREK SWEATT, Project Assistant

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Page vii BOARD ON BIOLOGY MICHAEL T. CLEGG (Chair), University of California, Riverside PAUL BERG, Stanford University JOANNA BURGER, Rutgers University, Piscataway DAVID EISENBERG, University of California, Los Angeles DAVID J. GALAS, Darwin Technologies, Seattle DAVID V. GOEDDEL, Tularik, Inc., San Francisco ARTURO GOMEZ-POMPA, University of California, Riverside COREY S. GOODMAN, University of California, Berkeley CYNTHIA KENYON, University of California, San Francisco BRUCE R. LEVIN, Emory University, Atlanta ELLIOT M. MEYEROWITZ, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena ROBERT T. PAINE, University of Washington, Seattle RONALD R. SEDEROFF, North Carolina State University, Raleigh ROBERT R. SOKAL, State University of New York, Stony Brook SHIRLEY M. TILGHMAN, Princeton University RAYMOND L. WHITE, University of Utah, Salt Lake City Staff RALPH DELL, Acting Director (until August 2000) WARREN MUIR, Acting Director (August 2000 through October 2000) FRAN SHARPLES, Director

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Page viii BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES HARLEY W. MOON (Chair), Iowa State University DAVID H. BAKER, University of Illinois MAY R. BERENBAUM, University of Illinois CORNELIA B. FLORA, Iowa State University ROBERT T. FRALEY, Monsanto Company ROBERT B. FRIDLEY, University of California, Davis W.R. “REG” GOMES, University of California PERRY R. HAGENSTEIN, Institute for Forest Analysis, Planning, and Policy GEORGE R. HALLBERG, The Cadmus Group, Inc. CALESTOUS JUMA, Harvard University GILBERT A. LEVEILLE, McNeil Consumer Healthcare WHITNEY MACMILLAN, Cargill, Inc. WILLIAM L. OGREN, US Department of Agriculture (retired) NANCY RACHMAN, Novigen Sciences, Inc. G. EDWARD SCHUH, University of Minnesota JOHN W. SUTTIE, University of Wisconsin-Madison THOMAS N. URBAN, Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc. ROBERT P. WILSON, Mississippi State University JAMES J. ZUICHES, Washington State University Staff DAVID MEEKER, Director

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Page ix COMMISSIONON LIFE SCIENCES MICHAEL T. CLEGG (Chair), University of California, Riverside FREDERICK R. ANDERSON, Cadwalder, Wickersham and Taft, Washington, DC PAUL BERG, Stanford University JOANNA BURGER, Rutgers University JAMES CLEAVER, University of California, San Francisco DAVID EISENBERG, University of California, Los Angeles NEAL L. FIRST, University of Wisconsin, Madison DAVID J. GALAS, Darwin Technologies, Seattle DAVID V. GOEDDEL, Tularik, Inc., San Francisco ARTURO GOMEZ-POMPA, University of California, Riverside COREY S. GOODMAN, University of California, Berkeley JON W. GORDON, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York DAVID G. HOEL, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston BARBARA S. HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill CYNTHIA J. KENYON, University of California, San Francisco BRUCE R. LEVIN, Emory University, Atlanta DONALD R. MATTISON, March of Dimes, White Plains ELLIOT M. MEYEROWITZ, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena ROBERT T. PAINE, University of Washington, Seattle RONALD R. SEDEROFF, North Carolina State University, Raleigh ROBERT R. SOKAL, State University of New York, Stony Brook CHARLES F. STEVENS, The Salk Institute for Biological Studies, La Jolla, California SHIRLEY M. TILGHMAN, Princeton University RAYMOND L. WHITE, University of Utah, Salt Lake City Staff WARREN MUIR, Executive Director

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Page xi Preface Proponents of agricultural biotechnology believe that genetically modified (GM) crops have the potential to provide great ecological benefits, such as reduced pesticide and land use, as well as agricultural benefits. However, given the rapid emergence of commercial GM crops and the likely increase in their use, many groups have raised concerns about the potential unintended, adverse ecological effects of these crops. Some ecological concerns are enhanced development of pest resistance, cross-pollination with wild relatives, and reductions in beneficial insects or birds. Given those concerns and growing public scrutiny, the US Department of Agriculture asked the National Research Council to convene a workshop to consider the latest in monitoring methods and technologies and to ask—What are the challenges associated with monitoring for ecological effects of GM crops? Is ongoing ecological monitoring of GM crops a useful and informative activity? If so, how should scientifically rigorous monitoring be carried out in the variety of ecological settings in which GM crops are grown? A workshop planning group was appointed whose membership was taken mostly from the Research Council's Standing Committee on Agricultural Biotechnology, Health and the Environment. The role of the planning group was limited to identifying topics, appropriate speakers, and other participants for the workshop. Persons with diverse perspectives and expertise were invited to give presentations and to serve on discussion panels. Presenters were drawn from industry, academia, government, the sustainable agriculture and other farming communities (see

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Page xii appendices). This document is a summary of the workshop and represents a factual recounting of what occurred at the event. The authors of this summary are Robert Pool and Joan Esnayra, neither of whom was a member of the planning group. This workshop summary has been reviewed for accuracy in draft form by persons who attended the workshop and others chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purposes of this independent review are to assist the Research Council in making the published document as sound as possible and to ensure that it meets institutional standards. We wish to thank the following, who are neither officials nor employees of the Research Council, for participating in the review: Frederick Ausubel Bonnie Bowen Galen Dively Rebecca Goldburg Although those listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this document rests entirely with the authors and the National Research Council. Joan Esnayra Study Director

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Page xiii Contents Introduction: Keeping Watch on Genetically Modified Crops 1 The Rationale for Ecological Monitoring 4 BOX 1:     Traditional Agriculture and the Environment 8 Scientific Issues in Ecological Monitoring 11 BOX 2:     Solving the Monarch Mystery 16 BOX 3:     Type I Versus Type II Errors 18 Policy Issues in Modeling 21 BOX 4:     Understanding Public Attitudes Toward Transgenic Crops 24 Appendix A:     Agenda 29 Appendix B:     Participant Biographies 33

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