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Comments on Catalyzing U.S. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Activities

Climate Research Committee

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council


NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Page i Comments on Catalyzing U.S. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Activities Climate Research Committee Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Page ii NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. 50-DKNA-7-90052 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-07404-5 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Page iii THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Page iv CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE EUGENE M. RASMUSSON (Chairman), University of Maryland, College Park EDWARD S. SARACHIK (Vice-Chairman), University of Washington, Seattle MAURICE L. BLACKMON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado STANLEY A. CHANGNON, Midwestern Climate Center, Illinois State Water Survey RICHARD E. HALLGREN, American Meteorological Society, Washington, D.C. JAMES E. HANSEN, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York RAYMOND NAJJAR, Pennsylvania State University, University Park STEVEN W. RUNNING, University of Montana, Missoula DIAN J. SEIDEL, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, Maryland LYNNE D. TALLEY, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California ANNE M. THOMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland ANDREW J. WEAVER, University of Victoria, British Columbia, Canada ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, New Jersey NRC Staff PETER A. SCHULTZ, Study Director CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant

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Page v BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ERIC J. BARRON (Chairman), Pennsylvania State University, University Park SUSAN K. AVERY, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder HOWARD B. BLUESTEIN, University of Oklahoma, Norman STEVEN F. CLIFFORD, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado GEORGE L. FREDERICK, Radian Electronic Systems, Austin, Texas MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts JUDITH L. LEAN, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, D.C. ROGER A. PIELKE, JR., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado MICHAEL J. PRATHER, University of California, Irvine ROBERT T. RYAN, WRC-TV, Washington, D.C. MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland THOMAS F. TASCIONE, Sterling Software, Inc., Bellevue, Nebraska ROBERT A. WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, New Jersey Ex Officio Members DONALD S. BURKE, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland DARA ENTEKHABI, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MARIO MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle NRC Staff ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director TENECIA A. BROWN, Project Assistant CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant LAURIE S. GELLER, Program Officer DIANE L. GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant ALEXANDRA R. ISERN, Program Officer ROBIN A. MORRIS, Financial Associate PETER A. SCHULTZ, Senior Program Officer VAUGHAN C. TUREKIAN, Program Officer

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Page vi COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chairman), University of Virginia, Charlottesville RICHARD A. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston, West Virginia LYNN GOLDMAN, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut THOMAS J. GRAFF, Environmental Defense, Oakland, California EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, D.C. BRAD MOONEY, J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia HUGH C. MORRIS, El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens MILTON RUSSELL, Joint Institute for Energy and Environment and University of Tennessee (Emeritus), Knoxville ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ANDREW R. SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park NRC Staff ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer CHRISTINE HENDERSON, Scientific Reports Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate

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Page vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authoring group would like to thank all of those who participated in the review and provided input to the discussions at the September 8, 2000 meeting of the National Research Council's (NRC) Climate Research Committee (CRC). The committee is especially grateful to W. Lawrence Gates, Paul Try, Roger Barry, David Legler, David Battisti, Antonio Busalacchi, Jr., and Marvin Geller. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University, University Park JAMES R. HOLTON, University of Washington, Seattle KUO-NAN LIOU, University of California, Los Angeles PIERRE R. MOREL, University of Maryland, Baltimore County CARL WUNSCH, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Richard M. Goody, Harvard University, appointed by the NRC's Report Review Committee, who was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Page viii

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Page ix Comments on Catalyzing U.S. World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Activities

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