that would permit new classes of sensors to be fielded, the negation of OCM and ASCM threats will require the Navy and the Marine Corps to field new sensor and weapon capabilities and/or to become dependent on and integrated with the nonorganic sensor systems of other Services and agencies. These nonorganic sensor systems might include AWACS, JLENS, UAVs, and DSP's SBIRS-high and SBIRS-low. If budget resources were to become available, any new sensors that might be fielded by the Navy and Marine Corps should include an elevated AMTI capability consisting of either a suitable radar (hosted on an E-2C or other airframe) or a multistatic system based on UAV receivers and AWACS, E-2C, or JLENS transmitters.
Future ballistic missiles are likely to be characterized by features such as spin-stabilized RVs, separating ACMs and RVs, low-observable RVs, maneuvering and tumbling RVs, and an ensemble of penetration aids that might include decoys, shrouds, jammers, and debris.
The NAD and NTW Block I systems will enable defeating some current unsophisticated ballistic missile threats; however, until upgraded systems are fielded, these systems will have limited capabilities against postulated advanced ballistic missile threats. Nonseparating theater ballistic missiles can be engaged and negated by these systems, although hitting the warhead of a tumbling vehicle remains a challenge. However, NTW Block IA and B will not be capable of providing simultaneous TBMD and ASCMD/OCMD. NTW Block IA and B ships will require the presence of supporting ships. Although NTW Block IC will integrate TBMD with other Aegis capabilities, NAD and NTW Block IC will not provide a robust capability for negating ballistic missiles with sophisticated penetration aids. This will require a substantial increase in radar capability over the SPY-1.
The SM-2 Block IVA and SM-3 programs appear to be well structured, but upgrades are required to the SPY-1 radar to make its capabilities compatible with the reach of the SM-3. These might include increased propulsion for the SM-3 to provide better performance robustness in the face of payload growth uncertainties and an improved HTK vehicle characterized by enhanced divert capabilities, two- or three-color IR sensors, laser radar, and so on.
Although both the NAD and NTW systems are based on the concept of spiral development (build-improve-build-improve . . .), the R&D to support such a development concept is not in place. BMDO controls investments in missile defense R&D, and its current levels of such investment are insufficient to result in significantly improved capabilities. BMDO control of missile defense R&D is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it discourages Service investment. On the other hand, it fences missile defense R&D from other Service priorities. Service-sponsored R&D in support of out-of-the-box solutions for missile defense can only take place in special access programs that often do not result in the acquisition of operational systems.
Naval forces lack a competent battle management command, control, and