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A Comprehensive Nuclear Arms Reduction Regime

Interim Report

Committee on International Security and Arms Control

National Academy of Sciences

National Academy Press
Washington, D.C.



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A Comprehensive Nuclear Arms Reduction Regime: Interim Report A Comprehensive Nuclear Arms Reduction Regime Interim Report Committee on International Security and Arms Control National Academy of Sciences National Academy Press Washington, D.C.

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A Comprehensive Nuclear Arms Reduction Regime: Interim Report NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W.Washington, D.C.20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Council of the National Academy of Sciences. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. DE-AM01-99PO80016, Task Order DE-AT01-00NN40153, A000 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of Energy and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Additional copies of this report are available from the Committee on International Security and Arms Control, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418, (202) 334-2811, cisac@nas.edu ; the report is also available online at http://www.nap.edu . Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences . All rights reserved.

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A Comprehensive Nuclear Arms Reduction Regime: Interim Report THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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A Comprehensive Nuclear Arms Reduction Regime: Interim Report COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND ARMS CONTROL JOHN P. HOLDREN (Chair), Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy & Director Program in Science, Technology, & Public Policy, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts JOHN D. STEINBRUNER (Vice-Chair), Professor and Director, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland WILLIAM F. BURNS (Study Co-Chair), Major General (USA, Ret.), Carlisle, Pennsylvania GEORGE LEE BUTLER, President, Second Chance Foundation, Omaha, Nebraska STEPHEN COHEN, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. SUSAN EISENHOWER, The Eisenhower Institute, Washington D.C.* STEVE FETTER (Study Co-Chair), School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland ALEXANDER H. FLAX, President Emeritus, Institute for Defense Analyses, and Senior Fellow, National Academy of Engineering, Washington D.C. RICHARD L. GARWIN, Thomas J. Watson Research Center, IBM Corporation, Yorktown Heights, New York SPURGEON M. KEENY, JR., President, Arms Control Association, Washington D.C. CATHERINE KELLEHER, Director, Aspen Institute Berlin, Berlin, Germany CHARLES LARSON, Admiral (USN, Ret.) U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, Maryland JOSHUA LEDERBERG, University Professor, The Rockefeller University, New York, New York * MATTHEW MESELSON, Thomas Dudley Cabot Professor of the Natural Sciences, Department of Molecular and Cellular Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts ALBERT NARATH, President (retired), Energy and Environment Sector, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Albuquerque, New Mexico WOLFGANG K.H. PANOFSKY, Professor and Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Stanford University, Stanford, California C. KUMAR N. PATEL, Professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of California, Los Angeles JONATHAN D. POLLACK, Professor of Asian and Pacific Studies and Director, Strategic Research, Naval War College, Newport, Rhode Island F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, ex officio, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences, Washington D.C. Study Staff DAVID HAFEMEISTER, Study Director JO L. HUSBANDS, Director CHRISTOPHER ELDRIDGE, Research Associate LA’FAYE LEWIS-OLIVER, Financial Associate * These members of CISAC did not participate in the preparation of the interim report.