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Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs Committee on Vehicle Emission Inspection and Maintenance Programs Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Division on Earth and Life Studies Transportation Research Board National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This project was supported by Cooperative Agreement CX 827224-01-0, between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authoress and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Library of Congress Control Number 2001096913 International Standard Book Number 0-309-07446-0 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Ave., NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights resewed. Printed in the United States of America

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National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Meclicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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COMMITTEE ON VEHICLE EMISSION INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS Members RALPH J. CICERONE fChair), University of Califomia, Irvine, Califomia DAVID T. ALLEN (Vice Chair9, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas MATTHEW J. BARTH, University of Califomia, Riverside, Califomia HUGH ELLIS, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland GERALD GALLAGHER, J Gallagher and Associates, Inc., Englewood, Colorado DEBORAH GORDON, Transportation Consultant, Los Angeles, California ROBERT HARLEY, University of Califomia, Berkeley, California HAROLD HASKEW, Harold Haskew and Associates, Inc., Milford, Michigan DOUGLAS R. LAWSON, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado VIRGINIA MCCONNEEE, Resources for the Future, Washington, D.C. ALISON K. POLLACK, ENVIRON International Corporation, Novato, Califomia ROBERT SLOTT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts Project Staff K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer RAYMOND WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and ~ . . engmeenng NANCY HUMPHREY, Senior Staff Officer CAY BUTLER, Editor RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Editor MIRSADA KARALIC-LONCAREVIC, Information Specialist RAMYA CHARI, Project Assistant PAMELA FRIEDMAN, Project Assistant Sponsor U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY v

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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Members GORDON ORIANS (Chair9, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington JOHN Douse (Vice Chair9, University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City, Kansas DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas INGRID C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado THOMAS BURKE, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland WIELIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California J. PAUL OILMAN, Celera Genomics, Rockville, Maryland DANIEL S. GREENBAUM, Health Effects Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis, California ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico CAROL HENRY, American Chemistry Council, Arlington, Virginia ROBERT HUGGETT, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan JAMES H. JOHNSON, Howard University, Washington, D.C. JAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario JAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan, Utah WILLEM F. PASSCHIER, Health Council of the Netherlands, The Hague ANN POWERS, Pace University School of Law, White Plains, New York LOUISE M. RYAN, Harvard University, Boston, Massachusetts KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley, California LISA SPEER, Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York Senior *taffy JAMES J. REISA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and ~ . . ~ng~neenng KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis K. JOHN HOLMES, Senior Staff Officer RUTH E. CROSSGROVE, Managing Editor Al

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TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD 2000 EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE JOHN M. SAMUELS (Chair), Norfolk Southern Corporation, Norfolk, Virginia THOMAS R. WARNE ~ Vice Chair), Utah Department of Transportation, Salt Lake City, Utah ROBERT E. SKINNER, JR. (Executive Director), National Research Council, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM D. ANKNER, Rhode Island Dept. of Transportation, Providence, Rhode Island THOMAS F. BARRY, JR., Florida Department of Transportation, Tallahassee, Florida JACK E. BUFFINGTON, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas SARAH C. CAMPBELL, TransManagement, Inc., Washington, D.C. E. DEAN CARLSON, Kansas Department of Transportation, Topeka, Kansas JOANNE CASEY, Intermodal Association of North Amenca, Greenbelt, Maryland JAMES C. CODELL III, Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, Frankfort, Kentucky JOHN L. CRAIG, Nebraska Depot lenient of Roads, Lincoln, Nebraska ROBERT A. FROSCH, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts GORMAN GILBERT, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California LESTER A. HOEL, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia H. THOMAS KORNEGAY, Port of Houston Authority, Houston, Texas BRADLEY L. MALLORY, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania MICHAEL D. MEYER, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia JEFF P. MORALES, California Department of Transportation, Sacramento, California JEFFREY R. MORELAND, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway, Fort Worth, Texas JOHN P. POORMAN, Capital District Transportation Committee, Albany, New York CATHERINE L. ROSS, Georgia Regional Transportation Agency, Atlanta, Georgia WAYNE SHACKELFORD, Gresham Smith & Partners, Alpharetta, Georgia PAUL P. SKOUTELAS, Port Authority of Allegheny County, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania MICHAEL S. TOWNES, Transportation District Commission of Hampton Roads, Hampton, Virginia MARTIN WACHS, University of California, Berkeley, California MICHAEL W. WICKHAM, Roadway Express, Inc., Akron, Ohio JAMES A. WILDING, Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, Washington, D.C. M. GORDON WOLMAN, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland . . V11

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OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Arsenic in Drinking Water: 2001 Update (2001) Compensating for Wetland Losses Under the Clean Water Act (2001 ~ A Risk-Management Strategy for PCB-Contaminated Sediments (2001) Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury (2000) Strengthening Science at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: Research- Management and Peer-Review Practices (2000) Scientific Frontiers in Developmental Toxicology and Risk Assessment (2000) Modeling Mobile-Source Emissions (2000) Toxicological Risks of Selected Flame-Retardant Chemicals (2000) Copper in Drinking Water (2000) Ecological Indicators for the Nation (2000) Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999) Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999) Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I. Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio (1998~; II. Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio (1999~; III. Early Research Progress (2001) Ozone-Forming Potential of Reformulated Gasoline (1999) Risk-Based Waste Classification in California (1999) Arsenic in Drinking Water (1999) Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (1998) The National Research Council's Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997) Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996) Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996) Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995) Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995) Biologic Markers (5 reports, 1989-1995) Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 reports, 1994-1995) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994) Ranking Hazardous Waste Sites for Remedial Action (1994) Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993) Setting Priorities for Land Conservation (1993) Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993) Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992) Science and the National Parks (1992) Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program, Volumes I-IV (1991 - 1993) Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991) . . . v'~z

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Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991) Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990) Copies of these reports may be orderedfrom the National Academy Press (6800) 624-6242 (202) 334-3313 www.nap.edu IX

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ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF REVIEW PARTICIPANTS This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Thomas Austin, Sierra Research, Inc. Robert Frosch, Harvard University Jay Gordon, Gordon-Darby, Inc. Thomas Hubbard, University of Chicago Roland Hwang, Natural Resources Defense Council Roberta J. Nichols, Ford Motor Company (retired) Robert Sawyer, University of California, Berkeley foe! Schwartz, Reason Public Policy Institute Donald H. Stedman, University of Denver Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Thomas Graedel, Yale University, and Richard Goody, Harvard University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was earned out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content ofthis report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. x

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Preface Controlling motor vehicle emissions is important for improving air quality on urban, regional, and national scales. In response, vehicle emissions standards over the past 3 5 years have become more stringent in an effort to reduce these emissions. Vehicle emissions inspection and maintenance (~/M) programs have been implemented in areas with air-quality problems to ensure that the emissions-controT systems developed in response to these more stringent standards remain operating throughout a vehicle's lifetime. Studies of I/M programs have shown that these programs have not been as effective as originally thought. Because of I/M's role in reducing emissions from motor vehicles and concerns about its effectiveness, Congress requested the National Academy of Sciences to review these programs. The National Research Council's (NRC) Committee on Vehicle Emission Inspection and Maintenance Programs was formed in response to that request. Specifically, the committee was charged with assessing the effectiveness of I/M programs, identifying criteria and methodologies for their evaluation, recommending improvements to these programs, and identifying research needs. Many individuals assisted the committee by providing information related to issues addressed in this report. 1: gratefully acknowledge David Amlin, California Bureau of Automotive Repair; Thomas Austin, Sierra Research, Inc.; Thomas Cackette, California Air Resources Board; Lee Cook, EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality; Paul Jacobs, California Air Re- sources Board; Scott Lee, EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality; lames Lindner, EPA Office of Transportation and Air Quality; Michael Xl

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Preface Rodgers, Georgia institute of Technology; Robert Sawyer, University of California, Berkeley; Hue] Scherrer, University of Minnesota; Joel Schwartz, Reason Public Policy Institute; Donald Stedman, University of Denver; and Thomas Wenzel, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory. The committee was ably assisted by K. John Holmes in his role as project director. The committee also acknowledges Raymond Wassel, senior program director of environmental sciences and engineering in the Board on Environ- mental Studies and Toxicology. We also thank the other staffmembers who contributed to this report, including Warren Muir, executive director of the Division on Earth and Life Studies; lames Reisa, director of the Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology; Nancy Humphrey, senior staffofficer with theTransportation Research Board; Cay Butler, editor; Ruth Crossgrove, managing editor; Mirsada KaraTic-Loncarevic, information specialist; and Ramya Chari and Pamela Friedman, project assistants. Finally, ~ would like to thank all the members ofthe committee for their expertise and dedicated effort throughout the study. Ralph I. Cicerone, Ph.D. Chair, Committee on Vehicle Emission Inspection and Maintenance Programs x'`

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Contents SUMMARY 1 MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS AND REGULATION The Committee's Charge and How It Originated, 17 Committee's Response to the Charge Report Contents, 18 Air Pollutants Emitted By Mobile Sources, 19 Vehicle Types and Standards, 23 Distribution of Vehicle Emissions, 30 Overview of Vehicle I/M Programs, 37 Evolving Issues Affecting I/M in the Future, 40 Summary, 44 2 VEHICLE EMISSIONS-CONTROL TECHNOLOGIES Overview, 47 Engine Controls, 48 Evaporative Controls, 52 OBD Systems, 55 Summary, 56 3 VEHICLE INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS ........................................ I/M Program Network Types, 57 Vehicle-Emissions Testing, 60 x'`' 1 ..... 17 .... 46 57

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Contents Other Program Elements Addressing Testing and Repairs, 69 Effect of Current I/M Programs on Vehicle Emissions, 74 Summary, 86 4 EMERGING EMISSIONS TESTING TECHNOLOGIES Motor Vehicle Profiling, 90 On-Board Diagnostics, 92 Remote Sensing, 103 Alternative Approaches for Controlling Lifetime Emissions, ~ ~ 5 Summary, ~ 15 90 ESTIMATING INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS USING THE MOBILE MODEL .. eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee~eeeeeeae..ee.. 118 Use of MOBILE in Regulatory Applications, 11 ~ Model Predictions Compared with Program Evaluation Data, 120 MOBILE I/M Inputs, 123 Review of MOBILE6 I/M Modeling Approach, 130 CaTifornia's EMFAC Model for Estimating I/M Emissions Reductions, 143 Summary, 144 6 EVALUATING INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE PROGRAMS: METHODS FOR ESTIMATING EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS e e e ~ e e e e e e e e e ~ e e e e e e e e e e ~ e e e ~ ~ e ~ ~ e ~ ~ ~ e Methods for Measuring Emissions Reductions, 147 Summary of Recommendations for Evaluation of Emissions Reductions, 162 146 7 EVALUATING INSPECTION AND MAINTENANCE FOR COSTS AND OTHER CRITERIA e ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 169 Evaluating Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of I/M, 169 Compliance and Enforcement, ~ 89 Public Acceptance and Political Feasibility of I/M and Public Awareness of Air Pollution, ~ 94 Future Trends in Vehicle Technology That Affect I/M Program Evaluation, 195 Summary, 197 x~v

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Corlterlts REFERENCES eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee 199 GLOSSARY APPENDIX A: Biographical Information on the Committee on Vehicle Emission Inspection and Maintenance Programs - - APPENDIX B: Abbreviations and Names Used for Classifying Organic Compounds . eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-eeeee APPENDIX C: Some Statistical Issues in Inspection and Maintenance Evaluations xv 215 229 233 234

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Evaluating Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Programs

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