Research recommendations, 2-9, 18, 69-72, 106, 154-167

“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166

S

Salinity, 21, 23, 26-27, 29, 47, 59, 62, 63, 64-65, 66-67, 76, 79, 156-157

see also Freshwater balance;

Thermohaline circulation

Younger Dryas interval, 25, 79

Satellite technology, 46, 66, 71

Seas, see Oceans

Seasonal variations, 5, 6, 48

forecasts, 3, 164

marine organism growth, 20

oceans, heat storage, 77

Sediment analyses, 6, 7, 20-24

(passim), 69, 70

Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115

Holocene rapid climate change, 42

lake and bog sediments, 21, 23, 24, 39

ocean, 21, 23, 34-35, 38, 45, 85, 129

Heinrich layers, 38, 74, 78, 89, 115

pollen, 23, 30-34, 39

Younger Dryas interval, 14, 15, 24-36

Social influences and effects, 2, 15-17, 18, 44, 87, 118-152, 154, 167

see also Economic factors

coastal zones, 129-131, 133

committee research recommendations, 2, 4, 7, 157-158, 159, 161, 163-164

definitional issues, 14

Dust Bowl, 43-44, 53-55

El Niño, 119, 133, 147

floods, 121-122, 134, 146, 164, 166

forcing, 121-122, 134-141

global warming, 116, 129-132, 137, 141, 143, 150-151, 152

health effects, 146-148, 135, 136, 146-149, 158

Holocene rapid climate change, 40

modeling, 4, 129-131, 141-142, 157-158, 161

policy perspectives, 1-2

definitional issues, 14

“no-regrets” strategies, 8-9, 164-166

recreation and leisure, 148, 149

statistical analyses, 126, 163-164

US National Assessment, 11

water supply, 17, 51, 115, 139, 144-146

South America, Younger Dryas interval, 26, 27, 32-33, 34

Statistical analyses

see also Models and modeling

committee research recommendations, 7-8, 163-164, 166

Holocene rapid climate change, 42

Monte Carlo simulations, 92

socioeconomic impacts, 126, 163-164

Storms, 9, 31, 35-36, 49, 51, 53, 54, 55, 109, 125, 133, 148, 163, 165-166

see also Floods

T

Thermohaline circulation (THC), 5, 6-7, 47, 58, 62, 64, 66-67, 77, 79, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 86, 89-106, 108-117

Atlantic Ocean, 77, 80-81, 82, 84-85, 90, 96, 102, 103, 108-117, 156

modeling of, 64, 75, 76, 91-102, 110, 111-112, 150-152, 156, 160

Thresholds, see Forcing and forcing thresholds

Transport processes

see also “circulation” under Atmospheric processes, other, and Oceans

oceans, heat, 64, 65, 66, 75, 76-78, 81, 85-86

see also Thermohaline circulation

sea ice, 3, 38

Tree rings,

see Dendrochronology

Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array, 47

Tropical regions, general, 16, 47, 50, 51-53, 59, 71-72, 77, 80, 81-82, 84-86, 90, 149

see also El Niño/Southern Oscillation;

Indian Ocean

Atlantic, 48, 52-53, 62, 78, 81-82, 110

Hadley circulation, 81-82, 84, 85, 87

Holocene droughts, 44

wetlands, 25

Younger Dryas interval, 27, 33, 34, 35

Tundra, see Permafrost/tundra

Two-box models, 74-75, 95-103

Front Matter (R1-R14)

Executive Summary (1-9)

1 Introduction to Abrupt Changes in the Earth's Climate (10-18)

2 Evidence of Abrupt Climate Change (19-72)

3 Processes that Cause Abrupt Climate Change (73-106)

4 Global Warming as a Possible Trigger for Abrupt Climate Change (107-117)

5 Economic and Ecological Impacts of Abrupt Climate Change (118-152)

6 Findings and Recommendations (153-167)

References (168-200)

Appendix A Committee and Staff Biographies (201-207)

Appendix B Board Rosters (208-211)

Appendix C Workshop Agenda (212-213)

Appendix D Workshop Participants (214-215)

Appendix E Impacts Workshop Program (216-217)

Appendix F Impacts Workshop Participants (218-219)

Appendix G Acronym List (220-222)

Index (223-230)

Color Plates (231-238)