3

 

PROCESSES THAT CAUSE ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

 

73

   

An Overview of Mechanisms,

 

74

   

Atmosphere,

 

80

   

Abrupt Climate Change and Thermohaline Circulation,

 

89

4

 

GLOBAL WARMING AS A POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOR ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

 

107

   

Changes in North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation,

 

108

   

Limited Predictability Close to an Instability,

 

111

   

Changes in Natural Modes of the Atmosphere-Ocean System,

 

112

   

Possible Future Abrupt Changes in the Hydrological Cycle,

 

113

   

Ice Sheet Changes,

 

114

   

Outlook,

 

115

5

 

ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

 

118

   

Recent Scientific Studies in the Ecological and Social Sciences,

 

120

   

Sectoral Approaches,

 

141

   

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change,

 

149

6

 

FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

 

153

   

Improve the Fundamental Knowledge Base Related to Abrupt Climate Change,

 

154

   

Improve Modeling Focused on Abrupt Climate Change,

 

159

   

Improve Paleoclimatic Data Related to Abrupt Climate Change,

 

161

   

Improve Statistical Approaches,

 

163

   

Investigate “No-Regrets” Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability,

 

164

   

Final Thoughts,

 

167

 

 

REFERENCES

 

168

 

 

APPENDIXES

 

203

   

ACommittee and Staff Biographies,

 

203

   

BBoard Rosters,

 

208

   

CWorkshop Agenda,

 

212

   

DWorkshop Participants,

 

214

   

EImpacts Workshop Program,

 

216

   

FImpacts Workshop Participants,

 

218

   

GAcronym List,

 

220

 

 

INDEX

 

223



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