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Population and Land Use in Haryana

Prem S. Vashishtha

Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi

R. K. Sharma

Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi

R. P. S. Malik

Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi

Seema Bathla

Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi

Scientists and policymakers are concerned about the world's growing population. For them, two key issues are food security—the ability of nations to feed their growing numbers of citizens—and the sustainability of agricultural systems in the face of intensified cultivation, the rising use of chemical inputs, and the increasing pressure on already scarce water resources. Because the relationships among population growth, land use, and sustainability of resources are complex, exploration of these relationships must depend on detailed, region-specific studies and cross-regional comparisons.

This study examines the relationships among land use, population growth, and consumption in Haryana, a landlocked state in northwest India. It borders on the states of Uttar Pradesh in the east, Himachal Pradesh in the northeast, Punjab in the north, and Rajasthan in the west, and the territory of Delhi in the south ( Figure 6-1). With a geographical area of 44,212 square kilometers and a population of 16.5 million in 1991, Haryana constitutes 1.3 percent of India's geographical area and 1.9 percent of its population. The capital of Haryana, Chandigarh, is shared by the neighboring state of Punjab.

Except for some low hills in the north and south, Haryana is flat. The state has no perennial river except for the Yamuna, which flows along its eastern side. Haryana has a subtropical monsoon climate with meager, aberrant rains, hot summers with excessive sunshine and intense heat, and cold winters. The minimum temperature in January is 1°C, and the maximum in the summer months is 48°C. The average annual rainfall varies across districts, from a minimum of 42 centimeters in Hissar to a



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Page 107 6 Population and Land Use in Haryana Prem S. Vashishtha Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi R. K. Sharma Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi R. P. S. Malik Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi Seema Bathla Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi Scientists and policymakers are concerned about the world's growing population. For them, two key issues are food security—the ability of nations to feed their growing numbers of citizens—and the sustainability of agricultural systems in the face of intensified cultivation, the rising use of chemical inputs, and the increasing pressure on already scarce water resources. Because the relationships among population growth, land use, and sustainability of resources are complex, exploration of these relationships must depend on detailed, region-specific studies and cross-regional comparisons. This study examines the relationships among land use, population growth, and consumption in Haryana, a landlocked state in northwest India. It borders on the states of Uttar Pradesh in the east, Himachal Pradesh in the northeast, Punjab in the north, and Rajasthan in the west, and the territory of Delhi in the south ( Figure 6-1). With a geographical area of 44,212 square kilometers and a population of 16.5 million in 1991, Haryana constitutes 1.3 percent of India's geographical area and 1.9 percent of its population. The capital of Haryana, Chandigarh, is shared by the neighboring state of Punjab. Except for some low hills in the north and south, Haryana is flat. The state has no perennial river except for the Yamuna, which flows along its eastern side. Haryana has a subtropical monsoon climate with meager, aberrant rains, hot summers with excessive sunshine and intense heat, and cold winters. The minimum temperature in January is 1°C, and the maximum in the summer months is 48°C. The average annual rainfall varies across districts, from a minimum of 42 centimeters in Hissar to a

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Page 108 ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 6-1 Districts of Haryana. maximum of 156 centimeters in the district of Ambala. The average annual rainfall is 59 centimeters. Based on its agroclimatic conditions, Haryana can be divided into two homogeneous regions: the eastern semiarid zone and the western arid zone. These regions show marked differences in patterns of land use, especially in the agricultural sector, and in levels of development. Intensity of land use in the two regions does not differ significantly, yet agriculture in the semiarid region is dominated by the cultivation of high-yielding, high-value crops such as rice and wheat, which accounted for 58.3 percent of the gross cropped area in 1991–1992. By contrast, in the same year a large proportion of the cropped area (63.4 percent) in the arid zone was allocated to lower-yielding, lower-value crops such as bajra (millet), pulses, oilseeds, and cotton. 1 As a result, the per-hectare quantity and value of output in the two regions differ significantly. 1This contrast was even sharper in 1971–1972 when bajra (millet), pulses, oilseeds, and cotton together occupied 72.6 percent of gross cropped area in the arid zone and 34.2 percent in the semiarid zone. Rice and wheat together accounted for only 12.6 percent and 40.2 percent of gross cropped area in the arid and semiarid zones, respectively.

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Page 109 Haryana has well-developed agricultural and industrial sectors, and its economy is growing rapidly—per capita income is the third highest among the sixteen major states in India. Haryana's outstanding agricultural development has been attributed primarily to the Green Revolution. Initiated over the period 1967–1978, it resulted in the intensification and expansion of agriculture in many developing countries and was very successful in India. Major aspects of the Green Revolution were the expansion of farmland and the adoption of double-cropping systems (two crop seasons per year) and seeds that had been improved genetically—that is, high-yielding varieties (HYV) of wheat, rice, corn, and millet. These practices continue to shape land use in Haryana today. This study examines changes in land use in the arid and semiarid agroecological regions of Haryana and the extent to which such changes are consistent with the goals of sustainable development. More specifically, it explores land use patterns in the context of the roles of population, technology, prices, and public policies, and analyzes the ecological consequences, particularly on water resources, of the intensification of agriculture. This study also examines socioeconomic indicators to determine whether the success brought by advanced agricultural technology has been translated into social benefits. Finally, it looks at the role of Haryana in providing food security for the nation, contrasting the demand for agricultural commodities for local consumption with the demand from markets outside the region. HARYANA: A DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE Two important forces driving changes in land use in Haryana are the size and growth rate of its population. These forces and their relationship to migration, land availability, and urbanization are examined in this section. Population Haryana experienced a low population growth rate throughout the first half of the twentieth century, but it is currently contributing to India's population expansion by an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent. In fact, Haryana is one of the fastest-growing states in India, despite its relatively high per capita income and commendable economic progress ( Table 6-1). In 1991 Haryana's total population was 16.5 million, or about 2 percent of India's 850 million people. The population of Haryana tripled over the period 1951–1991, from 5.6 million to 16.5 million. Although the annual

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Page 110 TABLE 6-1 Population Size and Growth Trends, India and Selected States, 1901–1991 Population Size (thousands) Annual Growth Rate (percent) State 1901 1951 1971 1991 1901–1951 1951–1971 1971–1991 Bihar 27,311 38,782 50,719 75,021 0.70 1.34 1.96 Haryana 4,623 5,674 10,036 16,464 0.41 2.85 2.47 Kerala 6,396 13,549 21,347 29,099 1.50 2.27 1.55 Punjab 7,545 9,161 13,551 20,282 0.39 1.96 2.02 Tamil Nadu 19,253 30,119 41,199 55,859 0.89 1.57 1.52 Uttar Pradesh 48,628 63,220 88,342 139,112 0.52 1.67 2.27 India 238,396 361,088 548,160 846,303 0.83 2.09 2.17 SOURCE: Srinivasan, K., ed. 1996. Population Policy and Reproductive Health. New Delhi: Population Foundation of India. growth rate has declined from 2.85 percent for the period 1951–1971 to 2.47 percent for the period 1971–1991, the latter growth rate is still much greater than the national annual growth rate of 2.17 percent for the same period. The rapid decline in mortality in the last half-century is commonly ascribed to improvements in nutrition and sanitation in some urban areas and better health care. Haryana's crude annual birth rate for the period 1991–1996 was 31.9 per thousand persons compared with 29.2 for India ( Table 6-2). Its death rate for the same period was 8.6 per thousand persons, which is lower than the national average of 9.8. Combining these rates results in a natural growth rate for 1991–1996 of 23.3 per thousand persons for Haryana compared with 19.4 for India. Life expectancy at birth in Haryana is 59.5 years for females, 61.5 years for males. The state ranks third among the major states in life expectancy for males, after Kerala (65.9 years) and Punjab (63 years). Its life expectancy for females, however, is unimpressive; Haryana ranks eighth among the major states. The increase in population has led to greater population density, because the land area remains unchanged. The population density of Haryana rose from 227 persons per square kilometer in 1971 to 372 in 1991, an increase of 64 percent. This density is much higher than the 1991 national average of 257 persons per square kilometer. Although the rate of increase of population density has been declining since the 1950s, it is projected to rise in the twenty-first century—to as high as 455 persons per square kilometer in the year 2001 and 530 by the year 2011 ( Table 6-3). Such high densities, in spite of the decline in population growth rates witnessed in recent years, stem from the high population growth main-

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Page 111 TABLE 6-2 Natural Growth Rate of Population, Haryana and India, 1951–2016 Year Crude Birth Rate (number of live births per thousand persons) (1) Crude Death Rate (number of deaths per thousand persons) (2) Natural Growth Rate (increase per thousand persons) (3) = (1) − (2) Haryana 1951–1961 — — — 1961–1971 44.00 16.90 27.10 1971–1981 42.10 9.90 32.20 1981–1991 36.50 11.30 25.20 1991–1996 31.90 8.60 23.30 1996–2001 24.00 7.75 16.25 2001–2006 22.75 7.09 15.66 2006–2011 21.98 6.90 15.09 2011–2016 21.01 6.85 14.15 India 1951–1961 41.70 22.80 18.90 1961–1971 41.20 19.00 22.20 1971–1981 36.90 17.70 19.20 1981–1991 33.90 12.60 21.30 1991–1996 29.20 9.80 19.40 1996–2001 24.10 8.99 15.11 2001–2006 22.84 8.27 14.57 2006–2011 22.27 7.80 14.48 2011–2016 21.41 7.48 13.94 NOTE: State-level estimates of crude birth rate and crude death rate for 1951 were unavailable. SOURCES: All figures for 1971–1991: Nutrition Foundation of India. 1992–1993. National Family Health Survey-Haryana. New Delhi: Nutrition Foundation of India; all figures for 1996–2016: Population Projections—India and the States, 1996–2016, Census of India, 1991; 1951 and 1961 crude birth and death rates for India: Pathak, K. B. 1996. Fertility and mortality transition in India: Policy perspectives and priorities. In: Population Policy and Reproductive Health, K. Srinivasan, ed. New Delhi: Population Foundation of India. tained in earlier decades. Therefore, the pace at which population pressures on the land are increasing is a matter of great concern. Migration, Land Availability, and Urbanization Migration is an important component of Haryana's demographic character. According to the census of India, the number of in-migrants to Haryana was 1.26 million in 1971, 1.51 million in 1981, and 1.84 million in 1991, for a compound growth rate of 1.90 percent a year ( Table 6-4). In-migrant workers in the categories of cultivators and agricultural wage

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Page 112 TABLE 6-3 Population Density and Growth Rates, Haryana and India, 1951–2011 Haryana India Year Population Density (number of persons per square kilometer) Change in Population Density (percent) Compound Annual Growth Rate of Population Density (percent) Population Density (number of persons per square kilometer) Change in Population Density (percent) Compound Annual Growth Rate of Population Density (percent) 1951 128 111 1961 172 34.17 2.98 134 21.41 1.96 1971 227 31.73 2.79 167 24.10 2.18 1981 292 28.78 2.56 208 25.02 2.26 1991 372 27.40 2.45 257 23.51 2.13 1996 420 12.69 2.42 284 10.39 2.00 2001 455 8.45 1.63 308 8.37 1.62 2011 530 16.56 1.54 359 16.45 1.53 SOURCES: Figures for 1996, 2001, and 2011: Population Projections—India and the States, 1996–2016 and Census of India, 1991. Other figures:Statistical Abstract of India (various issues).

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Page 113 TABLE 6-4 Number and Growth Rate of In-migrants, a Haryana, 1971 and 1991 All (workers + nonworkers) Workers Cultivators Agricultural Laborers 1971 Haryana 1,261,140 519,145 110,880 50,715 Arid region 370,005 148,125 45,295 25,535 Semiarid region 891,135 371,020 65,585 25,180 Central tract 498,980 222,745 51,310 18,285 Southern tract 392,155 148,275 14,275 6,895 1991 Haryana 1,835,796 564,533 81,851 54,927 Arid region 510,941 131,752 39,326 25,351 Semiarid region 1,324,855 432,781 42,525 29,576 Central tract 746,488 236,982 29,700 20,507 Southern tract 578,367 195,799 12,825 9,069 Compound Annual Growth Rate: 1971–1991(percent per annum) Haryana 1.90 0.42 −1.51 0.40 Arid region 1.63 −0.58 −0.70 −0.04 Semiarid region 2.00 0.77 −2.14 0.81 Central tract 2.03 0.31 −2.70 0.58 Southern tract 1.96 1.40 −0.53 1.38 aRefers to people residing in Haryana whose last place of residence was outside Haryana (all durations)—that is, in-migration is net of migration across districts within Haryana. SOURCE: Prepared by the author based on data from: Census of India 1971, Haryana, Series 6-Haryana, Part II-D, Migration Tables; Census of India 1991, Haryana, Series 6-Haryana, Part II-D, Vol. 1, Migration Tables. earners grew at a rate of −1.51 percent and 0.40 percent a year, respectively, over the period 1971–1991. Overall, in-migrants account for 12.57 percent and 11.15 percent of Haryana's population in 1971 and 1991, respectively ( Table 6-5). The employment of a substantial proportion (24–31 percent) of inmigrants in cultivation and agricultural wage earning has contributed to a decline in net sown area per capita, thereby increasing the population pressure on land for the livelihood of the rural population. For the period 1971–1991, the net sown area per primary sector worker declined from 2.99 hectares to 2.03 hectares, and the decline in net sown area per capita of rural population was even greater—from 0.43 hectares to 0.29 hectares

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Page 114 TABLE 6-5 Population and Availability of Agricultural Land, Haryana, 1971 and 1991 Indicator Unit 1971 1991 Absolute Change, 1971–1991 Population number 10,036,808 16,463,648 6,426,840 Rural number 8,263,849 12,408,904 4,145,055 Urban number 1,772,959 4,054,744 2,281,785 Share in total population Rural percent 82.34 75.37 −6.96 Urban percent 17.66 24.63 6.96 Workers in total population engaged as Cultivators number 1,302,608 1,829,530 526,922 Agricultural laborers number 430,312 896,782 466,470 Net sown area (NSA) thousand hectares 3,565.40 3,575.00 9.60 Landholdings number 998,704 1,529,779 531,075 Households number 1,530,180 2,614,725 1,084,545 Rural number 1,222,415 1,882,390 659,975 Urban number 307,765 732,335 424,570 NSA per rural population hectares 0.43 0.29 −0.14 NSA per primary sector worker hectares 2.99 2.03 −0.96 NSA per landholding hectares 3.57 2.34 −1.23 NSA per rural household hectares 2.92 1.90 −1.02 In-migrant a population number 1,261,140 1,835,796 574,656 Share of in-migrants a in total population percent 12.57 11.15 −1.42 Share of in-migrant a workers engaged as Cultivators percent 21.36 14.50 −6.86 Agricultural laborers percent 9.77 9.73 −0.04 Household industry workers percent 2.62 1.69 −0.93 a Refers to people residing in Haryana whose place of last residence was outside Haryana (all durations)—that is, in-migration is net of migration across districts within Haryana. SOURCES: (1) Census of India, 1971 & 1991, Series VI, Part II-D, Migration Tables, Haryana for migrant population data; (2) Census of India, 1971 & 1991, Series VI Part V-A & B, Vol.1, General Economic Tables, Haryana; (3) Statistical Abstract of Haryana (various issues) for rural and urban population, net sown area, landholding, and household data; (4) the rest of the figures were generated by the auther from these categories. ( Table 6-5). In addition, the number of landholdings increased at the rate of 2.15 percent a year, resulting in net sown area per rural landholding declining from 3.57 hectares to 2.34 hectares, a decline of 2.10 percent a year. Haryana, with only one-fourth of its population residing in urban areas, is less urbanized than many developed states of India. However, urbanization is on the rise: the urban population, which constituted

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Page 115approximately 10 percent of the net population before 1951, had grown to 18 percent by 1971 and 25 percent by 1991 ( Table 6-5). The increasing rate of urbanization is clearly revealed by the difference in the growth rates of the rural and urban populations. Between 1971 and 1991 the urban population of Haryana grew at an average rate of 4.22 percent a year, while the rural population grew at an average rate of 2.05 percent a year. The urban density of Haryana in 1991, at 5,309 persons per square kilometer, was greater than that in almost all states of India. From 1981 to 1991 urban density increased by 40 percent. According to the 1991 census, approximately 60 percent of Haryana's urban population is concentrated in metropolitan areas with populations equal to or above 100,000. Nearly 40 percent of the rural population is concentrated in villages with populations under 5,000. CHANGES IN LAND USE This section describes the history of agricultural development in Haryana since 1950, reports the results of a state-level analysis of changes in land use, examines how cropping patterns have changed over time, and compares the practices and effects of the Green Revolution in the two major agroecological regions of the state. 2 Agricultural Development of Haryana since 1950: Five Phases Haryana is primarily an agricultural region; more than 80 percent of its area is classified as net sown area. Since 1950 agriculture has been the main driver of the state's economic development. Haryana's agricultural development can be broken down into five phases that will help to illuminate changes in the state's land use patterns. Phase I (1951–1966): Population Pressure and Extensive Cultivation. Although Haryana's population grew slowly during the first half of the twentieth century (0.41 percent a year), population pressure began to intensify after 1950; from 1951 to 1966 the population increased at a rate of 2.85 percent a year. Agriculturally, this phase was characterized by extensive cultivation, facilitated by the more widespread use of irrigation through the canal system. Increased population pressures led to expansion of the net sown area—from 3 million hectares in 1950 to 3.4 million in 1960—primarily to meet the food requirements of the fast-growing population ( Table 6-6). 2For land use data on major regions in the area, see J. F. Richards et al. 1994. Historic Use and Carbon Estimates for South and Southeast Asia, 1880–1980. Environmental Sciences Division Publ. No. 4174. ORNL/CDIAC-61 NDP-046, Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

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Page 116 TABLE 6-6 Sown Area, Irrigated Area, and Adoption of High-yielding Varieties, Haryana, 1950–1996 Indicator Unit 1950 1960 1966 1971 1981 1991 1996 Gross irrigated area (GIA) thousand hectares 657 1,205 1,736 2,200 3,500 4,340 4,673 Gross cropped area (GCA) thousand hectares 3,470 4,583 4,599 5,000 5,800 5,600 5,976 GIA as percentage of GCA percent 18.93 26.29 37.75 44.00 60.34 77.50 78.20 Net irrigated area (NIA) thousand hectares n.a. 1,007 1,293 1,565 2,248 2,666 2,760 Net sown area (NSA) thousand hectares 2,982 3,400 3,422 3,600 3,700 3,500 3,586 NIA as percentage of NSA percent n.a. 29.62 37.80 43.47 60.76 76.17 76.97 Cropping intensity percent 116.36 134.79 134.40 138.89 156.76 160.00 166.64 Area under high-yielding varieties of: Rice thousand hectares 70 441 475 498 percent 24 87 75 60 Wheat thousand hectares 796 1,437 1,760 1,863 percent 68 92 98 95 SOURCE: Statistical Abstract of Haryana (various issues).

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Page 117 With the adoption of the double-cropping system, cropping intensity increased from 116 percent in 1950 to 135 percent in 1960. Public investments in canal irrigation systems also played an important role in creating favorable physical conditions for the intensification of agriculture. The net irrigated area, as a percentage of net sown area, increased from 30 percent in 1960 to 38 percent in 1966 ( Table 6-6). During this early phase, canals irrigated most of the net irrigated area; wells irrigated a smaller portion. Phase II (1966–1971): Spread of the Green Revolution. After India faced a severe food crisis in the mid-1960s, the issue of food security assumed utmost priority. The national government implemented measures to facilitate the adoption of the new Green Revolution technology and to procure food from surplus areas such as Haryana, Punjab, and western Uttar Pradesh. 3 Diffusion of Green Revolution technology was facilitated by the creation of infrastructure, including private investment in irrigation sources, and government regulation of wheat prices. These activities benefited the economy of Haryana. The government expedited creation of the necessary infrastructure by increasing the number of regulated markets and opening branches of commercial banks outside large towns. Surplus supplies of wheat were sold mainly to public procurement agencies, and any remaining was sold in the open markets. Government intervention in the food market ensured that producers would receive fair prices and prevented wheat prices from crashing at the regional level. During this phase the Green Revolution played a prominent role in land use change in Haryana. With the implementation of Green Revolution technology and the introduction of the high-yielding crop varieties over the period 1966–1971, the net sown area expanded by 5 percent and the irrigated area by 21 percent ( Table 6-6). Phase III (1971–1981): Consolidation of the Wheat Revolution and Beginning of the Rice–Wheat Rotation. Three aspects of this phase are noteworthy. First, the area allotted for rice cultivation increased throughout Haryana—from 291,000 hectares in 1971 to about 505,000 hectares in 1981 ( Table 6-7). Second, groundwater exploitation began in both the semiarid and arid regions, and the number of tube wells rose. Third, with continuation of the price support system for wheat and rice, the rice-wheat crop rotation became a lucrative proposition for the farmers. Phase IV (1981–1991): Intensive Cultivation and Depletion of Natural Resources. In the 1980s new environmental problems emerged in agriculture, including those related to groundwater depletion and soil degradation. 3In 1971 government agencies procured 709,000 tonnes of wheat from Haryana, or 29.5 percent of Haryana's wheat production and 13.9 percent of the total wheat procured at the national level.

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Page 134 Changes in the state-level commodity pricing policies are another avenue toward conserving resources. The output pricing of products can, at best, encourage the substitution of less water-intensive crops for wheat and paddy, but in light of the present trend toward adopting the highly profitable rice–wheat production sequence, such a substitution may not be feasible in Haryana. Farmers could increase the area used to cultivate vegetables and fruits, but, because storage facilities for these perishable commodities are not available, farmers often do not fetch higher returns for these crops. An increase in input prices could have a substantial impact on efficient use of available resources. At present, the state government provides subsidized electricity to farmers based on a flat rate structure. The government might consider following a more rational pricing policy, based on a unit rate, that would prevent exploitation and misuse of water resources. 9 Moreover, if consumers were aware of the growing water scarcity in the region, they might find higher electricity charges more acceptable, provided the power supply is uninterrupted. In one of the studies done in the Karnal and Kurukshetra Districts of Haryana, water consumers were willing to pay one-third more than the present rate of Rs. 29 (0.67 cents) per BHP (break horsepower) per month for a dependable supply of electricity. Indeed, during kharif season, when rice is grown, they were willing to pay from Rs. 30.2 (0.70 cents) to Rs. 78.9 (2 cents) per BHP per month, or an average of Rs. 40.1 (0.9 cents) per BHP per month (Malik and Goldar, 1998). A mix of these policy measures could be adopted to solve the emerging problem of water depletion in Haryana. Government intervention also is required to achieve a solution. India's Ministry of Water Resources has proposed a bill that would regulate and control the development of groundwater (Government of India, 1992). It proposes to set up a single, unified agency of the groundwater authority at the state level, which would operate under the jurisdiction of the Central Groundwater Authority. 10 The former would regulate and manage groundwater resources through technical planning and also take the necessary remedial measures. Moreover, it would help to create awareness of the need for judicious use of water and promote education among farmers and other users. The canal irrigation system also should be reviewed in accordance with the irrigation demands of the existing cropping pattern across districts. 9Researchers have found that farmers are overirrigating rice and wheat to safeguard the crops against electric power disruptions. 10Personal communication with B. S. Tanwar, director, Haryana State Minor Irrigation and Tubewell Corporation, Karnal.

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Page 135 SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS A closer look at changes in the size and composition of income across different sectors of Haryana's economy will shed light on the dynamics of population and land use in the state over time. This section examines the nature of the economic changes and changes in household consumption taking place in Haryana. 11 Economic Indicators In India the primary sector consists of agriculture, forestry, logging, fishery, mining, and quarrying; the secondary sector is made up largely of manufacturing; and the tertiary sector comprises services that support other sectors and expands along with urbanization. The absolute number of workers engaged in each sector has increased substantially over time, and the distribution of workers engaged across sectors has changed significantly as well. According to the census of India, the proportion of workers engaged in the primary sector was 48 percent in 1971 and 55 percent in 1991. The proportion of these workers has gone up as the proportion of those engaged in the secondary and tertiary sectors has gone down. The share of workers in industry declined from 19 percent in 1971 to 15 percent in 1991, and the share of workers in the service sector declined from 33 percent to 30 percent over the same period. In 1970 the per capita net state domestic product (NSDP) of Haryana was 1.2 times the national average and 1.5 times greater in 1992 ( Table 6-19). Among all states, the per capita NSDP of Haryana ranks second, after Punjab. While the contribution of the primary sector to the NSDP declined substantially between 1971 and 1991, its share of workers increased over the same period. The shares of the secondary and tertiary sectors, however, declined over the corresponding period. The primary sector (mainly the agricultural sector) thus continues to absorb large numbers of the workforce despite its decline in relative importance in the NSDP. Changes in Household Consumption Consumption patterns changed throughout India between 1972 and 1993 ( Table 6-20). In terms of total household expenditures, the overall share of food declined in rural areas from 73 percent in 1972 to 63 percent in 1993 and in urban areas from 65 percent to 55 percent. The share of cereal grains in total food expenditure declined from 63 percent in 1972 to 11The section on household consumption is largely based on surveys on “Consumer Expenditure in India,” carried out in Haryana between 1972 and 1993 by the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO).

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Page 136 TABLE 6-19 Per Capita Net Domestic Product at Factor Cost, Haryana and India, 1970–1996 (rupees, at 1980–1981 prices) Haryana India Year (1) (2) (1)/(2) 1970 1,944 1,572 1.24 1980 2,370 1,625 1.46 1990 3,467 2,258 1.54 1992 3,411 2,267 1.50 1996 3,956 2,774 1.43 SOURCE: National Accounts Statistics 1998. Central Statistical Organization, Ministry of Planning, Government of India; State Domestic Product 1998, CSO (floppy). 45 percent in 1993 in rural regions and from 42 percent to 32 percent in urban regions. Conversely, the shares of other food products, especially fruits, vegetables, and livestock products, increased significantly. The substantial increase in the per capita monthly household expenditure in both rural and urban areas stemmed from large increases in prices. Expenditures on nonfood items increased more than expenditures on food. A decline in the fraction of income spent for food is customarily recognized as an indicator of improved economic well-being. It is interesting to note that this change occurred in both urban and rural areas. In Haryana's expenditure on food from 1972 to 1993, the share of cereal grains, as expected, declined significantly in rural and urban areas, indicating a shift in consumption from cereal grains to other food products ( Table 6-21). An important feature of the food consumption pattern TABLE 6-20 Changes in Pattern of Household Expenditures, India, 1972 and 1993 (current prices) Rural Urban 1972 1993 1972 1993 Percent share of total expenditure Food 72.8 63.2 64.5 54.7 Nonfood 27.2 36.8 35.5 45.3 Percent share of total food expenditure Foodgrains 63.1 44.8 42.1 31.7 Fruits and vegetables 6.3 12.3 9.9 14.8 Livestock products 13.4 20.3 19.5 24.1 Edible oil 4.9 7.0 7.5 8.0 Sugar 5.2 4.8 5.6 4.3 Spices and salt 3.8 4.2 3.5 3.8 Beverages and refreshments 3.3 6.6 11.8 13.2 SOURCE: Sarvekshana, Vol. 2 (January 1979) and Vol. 20 (October–December 1996), National Sample Survey Organisation.

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Page 137 TABLE 6-21 Monthly Average Household Consumption Expenditure on Food, Haryana, 1972 and 1993 (rupees, at current prices) Rural Urban Product 1972 1993 Percent Change 1972 1993 Percent Change Per capita monthly expenditure (rupees) Food 46.97 231.24 392 44.19 255.33 478 Foodgrains 19.80 59.10 198 14.94 61.19 309 Vegetables 1.86 16.95 811 2.80 25.25 802 Fruits 0.48 6.10 1,170 1.61 12.62 683 Milk and dairy products 16.16 98.19 507 12.56 87.08 593 Meat, fish, and eggs 0.35 1.77 405 0.62 3.43 453 Sugar 4.83 20.68 328 3.80 16.05 322 Edible oil 0.87 9.13 949 2.97 16.85 467 Beverages and refreshments 1.52 11.78 675 3.32 24.26 630 Percent share of total food expenditure (percent) Foodgrains 42.15 25.55 −17 33.80 23.96 −10 Vegetables 3.96 7.34 3.4 6.33 9.89 3.6 Fruits 1.02 2.64 1.6 3.64 4.94 1.3 Milk and dairy products 34.41 42.46 8.05 28.42 34.10 5.7 Meat, fish, and eggs 0.75 0.76 0.1 1.41 1.35 −0.1 Sugar 10.28 8.95 −1.3 8.60 6.28 −2.32 Edible oil 1.84 3.95 2.11 6.72 6.60 −0.12 Spices and salt 2.35 3.26 0.91 3.56 3.37 −0.19 Beverages and refreshments 3.24 5.09 1.85 7.52 9.51 1.99 Total food 100 100 100 100 SOURCE: Sarvekshana, Vol. 2 (January 1979) and Vol. 20 (October–December 1996), National Sample Survey Organisation. was the relatively higher expenditure on milk and dairy products. In 1972 these products accounted for 34 percent of the expenditure on food in rural areas, compared with a national rural average of 10 percent. From 1972 to 1993 the expenditure on dairy products in rural areas increased by 507 percent. As a result, the share of these products in the total expenditure on food increased from 34 to 43 percent over the same period. Dairy products have replaced cereal grains as the most important component of food expenditure in both rural and urban areas. Trends in Livestock The rapid growth of agriculture has significantly shifted the pattern of household food consumption in favor of livestock products, particularly milk. Other livestock products, such as meat and eggs, have exhibited marginal increases in consumption. The proportion of households reporting consumption of meat, eggs, and fish in Haryana is smaller than

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Page 138 the national average proportion, primarily because of the strong religious taboos on nonvegetarian food. 12 Judging from the large increase in the consumption of livestock products observed over the last three decades, it appears likely that this consumption will continue to increase in Haryana and in India. Because Haryana fulfills a sizable portion of the demand for livestock products from Delhi and several other urban centers, increased consumption of livestock products may bring about significant changes in land use. Production of livestock products requires much more land than production of cereal grains, although currently only 2 percent of cereal grains produced in India are fed to livestock, compared with 20 percent in China, 50 percent in Japan, and 70 percent in the United States (Dunning and Brough, 1991). Animal husbandry is an integral part of Haryana's agriculture. Several agroclimatic features, such as the dry climate, presence of lime in the soil, availability of abundant grazing land, and predominance of semifodder crops, have favored the rearing of quality livestock. Bovines, camels, horses, ponies, mules, donkeys, pigs, sheep, goats, and poultry made up the 1992 livestock census of Haryana. Changes in the livestock population in recent decades are attributable to several factors ( Table 6-22). Intensive cultivation of wheat and rice after the spread of the Green Revolution necessitated rapid completion of tillage and sowing operations. Thus farmers invested heavily in tractors and threshers, and the number of bullocks, which constituted about 85 percent of the draft animal force for cultivation, declined by 41 percent between 1972 and 1992. All in all, the number of working animals declined by 13 percent. Their share of total livestock (in terms of standard feed units) declined from 35 percent to 23 percent during this period. Another factor affecting changes in the livestock population is the increased demand for milk, eggs, and meat caused by the 64 percent increase in the human population and rising incomes. As a result, the number of milch animals increased by 47 percent between 1972 and 1992. Because of the strong cultural taboo against consumption of beef, nonvegetarians depend on goat, sheep, chicken, and pigs for meat. Thus the population of these animals increased substantially over 1972–1992, though it continues to constitute only a small proportion (5 percent) of the total livestock population. Social Welfare In spite of making considerable progress on the economic front, particularly in the agricultural sector, Haryana has not shown equally en- 12National Sample Surveys Organisation, 50th Round, 1993–1994.

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Page 139 TABLE 6-22 Changes in Livestock Population, Haryana, 1972–1992 Number (thousands) Percent Change Animal 1972 1992 1972–1992 Cattle Adult male 948.0 557.4 −41.20 Adult female 726.0 716.2 −0.13 Young stock 777.0 860.0 10.68 Total 2,451.0 2,133.6 −12.95 Buffalo Adult male 61.8 246.5 298.86 Adult female 1,283.1 2,262.5 76.33 Young stock 1,173.0 1,863.9 58.90 Total 2,517.9 4,372.9 73.67 Others Camels 132.8 128.3 −3.38 Horses and mules 33.3 75.2 125.82 Donkeys 72.7 73.6 1.24 Sheep and goats 937.5 1,843.2 96.61 Pigs 143.2 517.3 261.24 Poultry 963.3 8,580.2 790.71 Draft animals Cattle 948.0 557.4 −41.20 Buffalo 61.8 246.5 298.86 Camels 132.8 128.3 −3.38 Other (horses, mules, etc.) 106.0 148.8 40.37 Total 1,248.6 1,081.8 −13.42 Milch bovine Cattle 717.0 702.8 −1.99 Buffalo 1,273.0 2,219.7 74.36 Total 1,990.0 2,922.5 46.86 SOURCE: Livestock Census, 1972 and 1992. couraging results in reducing its population growth rate, which is currently 2.5 percent. The National Family Health Survey indicates that fertility rates are lower among women in urban areas than those in rural areas and are inversely proportional to the level of education of women ( Table 6-23). Furthermore, urban households have lower infant mortality rates than rural households. Infant mortality rates seem to decline with higher levels of education among women and with the availability of maternal and prenatal care. High income standing and relatively high human development in Haryana do not appear to translate into improved welfare for all segments of society. Of the sixteen major states of India, Haryana ranks third

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Page 140 TABLE 6-23 Fertility and Infant Mortality Rates by Selected Background Characteristics, Haryana, 1993 Background Characteristic of Woman Desired Fertility Rate (desired number of children per woman in the 15–45 age group) (1) Total Fertility Rate (number of children per woman in the 15–45 age group) (2) Infant Mortality Rate (number of infant deaths per thousand live births) (3) Under 5 Mortality (number of deaths in the age group 0–5 per thousand children below 5 years of age) (4) Residence Urban 2.16 3.14 59.20 80.60 Rural 3.05 4.32 86.20 116.40 Education Illiterate 3.33 4.69 86.60 121.80 Literate Less than middle school completed 2.58 3.52 77.20 95.50 Middle school completed 2.26 3.48 66.00 68.50 High school completed 2.06 2.75 46.30 50.80 Medical maternity care No prenatal or delivery care 87.00 113.70 Either prenatal or delivery care 71.00 84.40 Both prenatal and delivery care 57.07 68.70 Total 2.81 3.99 79.70 107.60 NOTE: Information in columns (1) and (2) refers to the three years preceding the survey. Information in columns (3) and (4) refers to the 10-year period preceding the survey. SOURCE: National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 1992–1993: India, Haryana, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh. International Institute for Population Sciences, Bombay.

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Page 141 in income and sixth in human development. Yet Haryana ranks ninth in terms of a gender-related health index and tenth in female literacy rate, indicating that females appear to be at a disadvantage in social status, health, and education. CONCLUSION Known as a Green Revolution state, Haryana has become the bread-basket of India, playing a crucial role in the food security of the nation. Because Haryana's rice and wheat production far exceeds the demand for these two crops by the local population, the state has become a net exporter of these crops to the rest of the nation. Most of the production surpluses are procured by government agencies for sale through public distribution system networks in India. The Green Revolution also brought profound changes in land use in Haryana through a complex set of interacting biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The driving forces behind land use change in both semiarid and arid regions are increased cultivation intensity, utilization of high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice, and high inputs of fertilizer and water. Other forces are infrastructure development, private investment in irrigation sources, and a wheat/rice support policy regulated by the government of India. Even though Haryana has benefited from its enormous agricultural achievements brought about by the Green Revolution, its success is built on a receding water resource. Intensification of agriculture has caused the groundwater table to drop in some areas and has caused waterlogging in others. The economic growth resulting from urbanization, industrialization, and the changing lifestyles of an increasing population also has led to overextraction of groundwater. Equally worrisome, excessive use of fertilizers and pesticides has led to a deterioration of land and soil quality. To cope with falling water tables, farmers often must replace their pumps with higher-capacity ones and incur higher capital and operating costs to pump the same amount of water from a greater depth. The thousands of farmers with small operational holdings in Haryana who meet a large part of their staple food requirements from rice and wheat are unlikely to comprehend the long-term problems of resource degradation and environmental pollution and thus are likely to continue this lucrative cropping system. Such a development could deteriorate the environmental resource base and make the rice–wheat cropping sequence environmentally unsustainable. In response, researchers are trying to identify technologies that are more resource conserving and less environmentally polluting. Government policy initiatives also could be used to encourage farmers to adopt such technologies, thereby enhancing food security and environmental sustainability.

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Page 142 In fact, government policies are responsible for changes in land use patterns aimed at intensification of agriculture and development. These policies generally give priority to expansion of canals and groundwater irrigation through large-scale investments, the provision of subsidized electricity for tube wells, credit and marketing facilities, crop output price supports, and other institutional support. The policies related to infrastructure development and pricing of crop inputs and outputs seem to be the most crucial. While the Green Revolution has contributed to achieving food security in Haryana as well as in the country at large, environmental constraints arising out of the shifts in cropping patterns in favor of crop rotation such as rice–wheat are beginning to surface. The development policies aimed at increasing the production of cereal grains did not take into consideration the possible effects of these policies on the environment and the use of natural resources. Some of the research results indicate that factor productivity and the input use efficiency of the system are declining and that crop yields in the system lack sustainability. Average crop yields have been increasing, yet the rate of increase in crop yields is on the decline; they have not been rising in proportion to the increased use of inputs. As a result, although the rice–wheat farming system is still financially profitable and economically viable, the profitability of the system is declining. Thus the sustainability of the Green Revolution in Haryana in economic, social, and environmental terms is now a matter of serious concern. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This paper is based on Vashishtha et al. (1999), the project report prepared for the Indian National Science Academy and the National Research Council, USA. The authors are grateful to P. S. Ramakrishnan for being a constant source of encouragement to the study team at all stages of this study, to Gordon M. Wolman for steering the proceedings of the Tri-Academy meetings, and to Michael Greene for a very patient and meticulous handling of both academic and administrative problems of the project. The authors would also like thank their colleagues C. S. C. Sekhar and Narinder Singh for data management, Soma Bhattacharya for her efficient and untiring research assistance in bringing the study to the present form, Moolchand and S. P. Sharma for helping in field trips, and N. L. Sharma and Munish Sindwani for providing overall administrative and secretarial support. Thanks are due to the Indian National Science Academy, particularly to A. K. Jain, collaboration with whom made the implementation of the project possible.

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Page 143 REFERENCES Agarwal, M. C. 1995 . Extent and utilisation of groundwater resources in Haryana. In: Proceedings of 2nd Dr. D. P. Motiramani Memorial Lecture and Panel Discussion on Agricultural Water Management: Issues and Priorities, October 21, 1995, Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University , Hisar . Agarwal, R. P. 1995 . Water management in rice–wheat cropping system in Haryana. In: Proceedings of 2nd Dr. D. P. Motiramani Memorial Lecture and Panel Discussion on Agricultural Water Management: Issues and Priorities, October 21, 1995, Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University , Hisar . Bathla, S. 1998 . Sustainability of Land and Water Resources in Haryana: Some Ecology–Economy Interactions. Report submitted to Agricultural Economic Research Centre (AERC), University of Delhi , Delhi . Bhalla, G. S., and G. Singh. 1996 . Impact of GATT on Punjab Agriculture. Chandigarh : Institute for Development and Communication . Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University (CCSHAU) , Hisar . 1996–1997 . Indo–Dutch Operational Research Project on Hydrological Studies. Project initiated by CCSHAU, Hisar; International Institute for Land Reclamation and Improvement, The Netherlands; and DLO Win and Staring Centre for Irrigated Land, Soil and Water Research, The Netherlands. Chopra, K., and S. Bathla. 1997 . Water Use in the Punjab Region: Conflicts and Frameworks for Resolution. Paper presented at the IDPAD Seminar on Managing Water Scarcity: Experience and Prospects, Amerfoort, The Netherlands, October 1997. Dunning, A. B., and H. B. Brough. 1991 . Taking Stock: Animal Farming and the Environment. Worldwatch Paper 103, July. Gangwar, A. C., and W. H. van den Toorn. 1987 . The economics of adverse groundwater conditions in Haryana state. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics 42(April–June) . Gleick, Peter H. 1997 . Human population and water: Meeting basic needs in the 21st century. In: Population, Environment and Development, R. K. Pachauri and L. F. Quershy, eds. New Delhi : Tate Energy Research Institute . Government of India. 1992 . Model Bill to Regulate and Control the Development of Groundwater. Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India. Grover, D., et al. 1998 . Haryana : Current population scenario, problems, policies and strategic thrust areas for the future. Photocopy. Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). 1998 . Decline in Crop Productivity in Haryana and Punjab: Myth or Reality? Report of the Fact-Finding Committee, Indian Council of Agricultural Research , New Delhi . Joshi, P. K., and N. K. Tyagi. 1991 . Sustainability of existing farming system in Punjab and Haryana—Some issues in groundwater use. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics 46(July–September) . Malik, R. P. S., and B. N. Goldar. 1998 . Electricity Pricing and Sustainable Use of Groundwater: Farmers' Willingness to Pay for Electricity in Haryana. Paper presented at the Third Applied Development Economics Workshop, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics, January 15–17, 1998. Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India. 1991 . Manual on Water Supply and Treatment. 3d ed. Prepared by the Expert Committee Constituted by Government of India, Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organisation, Ministry of Urban Development , New Delhi , March. National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use Planning. 1992 . Agro-Ecological Regions of India. Indian Council of Agricultural Research , Nagpur .

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Page 144 Richards, J. F. et al. 1994 . Historic Land Use and Carbon Estimates for South and Southeast Asia, 1880–1980. Environmental Sciences Division Publ. No. 4174. ORNL/CDIAC-61 NDP-046, Oak Ridge National Laboratory . Singh, P. 1995 . Efficient utilisation of canal water. In: Proceedings of 2nd Dr. D. P. Motiramani Memorial Lecture and Panel Discussion on Agricultural Water Management: Issues and Priorities, October 21, 1995, Chaudhary Charan Singh Haryana Agricultural University , Hisar . Tanwar, B. S. 1994 . Environmental Impact of Groundwater Development. Paper presented at the Regional Workshop on Environmental Aspects of Groundwater Development, Kurukshetra, Haryana, October 17–19, 1994. Tanwar, B. S. 1995 . Disposal of drainage effluent options for Haryana. In: Reclamation and Management of Waterlogged Soils, K. V. G. K. Rao, ed. Reclamation and Management of Waterlogged Saline Soils, National Seminar Proceedings, April 5–8, 1994, Central Soil Salinity Research Institute , Karnal, Haryana . Tanwar, B. S. 1997 . Strategy for Water Logging and Flood Control in Canal Commands of the Semiarid Region. Paper accepted for 7th ICID International Drainage Workshop, November 17–21, 1997. Vashishtha, P. S., R. K. Sharma, and R. P. S. Malik. 1999 . Interactions between Population Growth, Consumption and Land Use Change in Haryana (India). Research Study No. 99/2, Agricultural Economics Research Centre, University of Delhi, Delhi.