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2

Elements of Population Growth

India, China, and the United States are all undergoing major demographic and spatial transformations. The form of these transformations varies widely—not only among the three nations, but also within various regions of the three countries. Some major patterns are apparent, however, when the three countries and the six study regions in them (Kerala, India; Haryana, India; the Jitai Basin, China; the Pearl River Delta, China; South Florida, USA; and Chicago, USA) are compared on several dimensions: changes in the rates and components of population increase, geographic redistribution of the population, and the influences of external economic and demographic events.

This exploration of the findings from these six study regions runs head on into many of the major controversies in demography. Are the net effects of population growth positive (Simon, 1981) or negative (Ehrlich, 1968)? Does population growth cause innovation (Boserup, 1965)? Is population growth the major factor in environmental degradation, or does it play only a secondary role after factors such as economic development, consumption, and public policy (Jolly and Torrey, 1993; Meyer and Turner, 1992)?

Simple answers do not stand up to scrutiny given the interaction of population variables with other social and economic variables and with the physical environment. In some of these interactions population can best be viewed as the independent variable; in other contexts it must be viewed as the dependent variable. It is this complexity that makes analysis in the field both frustrating and exciting.



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Page 23 2 Elements of Population Growth India, China, and the United States are all undergoing major demographic and spatial transformations. The form of these transformations varies widely—not only among the three nations, but also within various regions of the three countries. Some major patterns are apparent, however, when the three countries and the six study regions in them (Kerala, India; Haryana, India; the Jitai Basin, China; the Pearl River Delta, China; South Florida, USA; and Chicago, USA) are compared on several dimensions: changes in the rates and components of population increase, geographic redistribution of the population, and the influences of external economic and demographic events. This exploration of the findings from these six study regions runs head on into many of the major controversies in demography. Are the net effects of population growth positive (Simon, 1981) or negative (Ehrlich, 1968)? Does population growth cause innovation (Boserup, 1965)? Is population growth the major factor in environmental degradation, or does it play only a secondary role after factors such as economic development, consumption, and public policy (Jolly and Torrey, 1993; Meyer and Turner, 1992)? Simple answers do not stand up to scrutiny given the interaction of population variables with other social and economic variables and with the physical environment. In some of these interactions population can best be viewed as the independent variable; in other contexts it must be viewed as the dependent variable. It is this complexity that makes analysis in the field both frustrating and exciting.

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Page 24 This Tri-Academy Project does not resolve that complexity. On the contrary, the results of the individual case studies indicate many areas where simple explanations do not hold and where the complexity of interactions among population, consumption, land use, the environment, and other social and economic variables must be addressed to understand the underlying processes. The role of this chapter is to place the case studies in context, to look for some common threads among them, to tie them to some of the relevant demographic theory, and to raise questions that remain unresolved. POPULATION AND LAND AREA The countries in this study—India, China, and the United States—are the world's most populous (see Figure 2-1). In 2000 the population of China was estimated at 1.262 billion, India at 1.014 billion, and the United States at 276 million (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). Although the combined population of these three countries—2.5 billion—makes up 42 percent of the world's population, the countries only occupy 16 percent of the world's land area. How these countries handle their land and population relationships will have a major role on how the earth as a whole copes with population pressure on the land. ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 2-1 Population of India, China, and United States, 1950–2000. SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000. International Data Base, May 10, online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew/html

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Page 25 The crudest measure of the relationship between population and land is simple population density, a gauge in which the three countries differ substantially. In 2000 the world's population density was almost 46.4 persons per square kilometer (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). The population density of the United States, however, was only 30 persons per square kilometer, or substantially below the world average. With its 135 persons per square kilometer, China has a population density more than three times the world average, even though vast arid areas in western China are sparsely populated. India is one of the world's more densely populated countries. Its density of 341 persons per square kilometer is almost eight times the world average. More important than the density of each country as a whole is the spatial variation within the country. The Tri-Academy Project studied six regions that are at or above the average population density of the nation in which they are located. The primarily agricultural regions, the Jitai Basin and Haryana, are close to the national averages for China and India, respectively. The two urban regions, the Pearl River Basin and the Chicago metropolitan area, show high densities as would be expected. The other two regions, Kerala and South Florida, have particular circumstances that lead to unexpected results. Although South Florida is 96 percent urban and is densely settled along the coasts, much of the inland area is reserved for national parks and conservation areas. As a result, the average density is as low as that of the Jitai Basin. At the other extreme, Kerala, which is only 26 percent urban, has a dense system of village settlements that results in a population density almost as high as those of the Chicago and Pearl River Delta regions. CHANGES IN DENSITY AND POPULATION As the world moves into the twenty-first century, one major reason for concern is not just the current population density level but also the rate at which it has been increasing over time. From 1950 to 2000 the world's population density more than doubled, from 20 persons to 46 persons per square kilometer. The population density of the United States increased somewhat more slowly, from 17 persons per square kilometer in 1950 to 30 by 2000—an increase of roughly 75 percent. During that period the population density of China increased 125 percent, from 60 to 135 persons per square kilometer, and India's population density increased over 175 percent during the last half-century, rising from 124 persons per square kilometer in 1950 to more than 341 in 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). Because land area varies very little with time, the changes in density have been directly associated with changes in population size. During the last half of the twentieth century, the combined population of India, China,

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Page 26 ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 2-2 Population change in India, China, and United States, 1950–2000. Note the significant drop in the late 1950s and early 1960s due to the famine and deferred births associated with the Great Leap Forward in China. SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000. International Data Base. May 10, online at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html and the United States increased 135 percent—roughly the same as that of the world as a whole. Yet the average annual rates of population growth varied markedly (see Figure 2-2). China's average growth rate rose from less than 1.0 percent in 1950 to over 3 percent in the 1963, interrupted by declines during the “Great Leap Forward” of the late 1950s and the early 1960s. The high birth rate was the response of the population to the huge losses of life during the Great Famine and was a catch-up in births to replace the children who died or who were not born in those years. The birth rate has since declined steadily, to 2.7 percent in 1970, 1.25 in 1980, and an estimated 0.9 percent in 2000. By contrast, India's rates of population growth have remained high, rising from an average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent in 1950 to 2.3 percent in 1970 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). A decline in recent decades brought the rate down to 1.9 percent in 1990 and an estimated 1.6 percent in 2000. In the United States, the average annual growth rate of 1.7 percent in 1950 and 1960 declined to 1.3 percent in 1970 and 1.0 percent in the 1980 and 1990. By 2000, the rate of population growth of 0.9 percent in the United States was the same as that of China but much lower than the 1.6 percent for India. But even India's growth rate had come down below the level that the U.S. rate was in 1950.

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Page 27 THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION AND COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE As countries undergo the “demographic transition” (Davis, 1945), the traditional pattern of high fertility and high mortality is transformed by the technological, social, and market changes that reduce mortality while fertility remains high. The result of high fertility and low mortality is a major increase in population size. Later, fertility also begins to fall, eventually reducing the rate of population growth. The speed of the transition and the level to which fertility declines (above or below replacement level) varies widely from one society to another. Each of the three countries in this study has had its own pattern and timing for this transition. The United States was one of the first countries to go through the demographic transition; crude death rates fell from 17 to 9 deaths per thousand persons between 1900 and 1950. Since 1950 the crude death rate has fluctuated slightly with improvements in life expectancy, sometimes outweighed by increases in the proportion of the population over age 65, so that by 1998 the crude death rate was eight deaths per thousand persons ( Figure 2-3). The demographic transition in fertility in the United States was not as smooth as that in other countries with developed economies. Although the crude birth rate fell from 32 births per thousand persons in 1900 to 19 per thousand by 1940, the extended baby boom after World War II led to crude birth rates of 24 per thousand in the 1950s and 1960s ( Figure 2-3). Fertility has dropped markedly since that time, but the crude birth rate of 14 per thousand total population at the end the twenti- ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 2-3 Demographic Transition of the United States, 1900–2000.

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Page 28 eth century was substantially higher than fertility levels in most other developed countries. The difference between the population growth rate of 0.9 percent a year and the rate of natural increase of 0.6 percent in 2000 stems from the large net flow of immigrants into the United States—roughly a million a year over the last decade. China, with its population of more than 1.2 billion, has seen one of the world's most impressive transitions in population growth (Banister, 1985). In the last half of the twentieth century, death rates declined dramatically in China ( Figure 2-4): from 30 deaths per thousand persons in 1950 and 35 per thousand in 1960, down to about 7 per thousand in 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). In recent decades, the second part of the demographic transition has taken hold at a very fast pace, with dramatic declines in fertility coincident with the adoption of the one-child population policy (Feeney and Jianhua, 1994). Although the adherence to this one-child policy varies widely throughout the country, it has been particularly effective in urban areas (Cooney and Li, 1994; Zeng Yi, 1996). From 1950 to 1970 the crude birth rate dropped gradually, from 43 to 37 births per thousand persons. During the 1970s, the decline was much more dramatic, to 19 births per thousand persons by 1980. After a slight rise to 21 per thousand in 1990, the rate was down to 16 per thousand by 2000 ( Figure 2-4). Today, China appears to have passed through all the stages of the demographic transition. As a result of falling death rates and even faster falling birth rates, China's rate of natural increase (and its rate of population growth) in 2000 was only 0.9 percent a year—well below the world average of 1.3 percent a year (U.S. Census Bureau, 2000). ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 2-4 Demographic transition of China, 1900–1998.

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Page 29 ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 2-5 Demographic transition of India, 1950–1998. During the second half of the twentieth century, India too showed gradual but steady reductions in its crude death rates—from 27 per thousand persons in 1950 to 9 per thousand in 2000—signaling the beginning of its demographic transition ( Figure 2-5). Although the crude birth rate remained quite high at 45 per thousand in the 1950s, recent years have seen moderate declines in this rate, down to 26 per thousand in 2000. India's current rate of population growth at 1.6 percent a year in 2000 is still substantially higher than the world average. Table 2-1 and Table 2-2 provide a demographic comparison of the six sites for 1990–1991, the last years for which common data are available for all sites. For reference, national-level data for 1990–1991 are shown as well. These data were provided principally by the national statistical agencies responsible for the national censuses, the Office of the Registrar General of India, the Chinese Central Bureau of Statistics, and the U.S. Census Bureau. The data have been supplemented by that from municipal statistics and sample surveys. The comparability of data across sites is limited by differences in concepts and measurement. The urban concept is particularly tied to administrative definitions that change between countries and over time within a given country. Similarly, differences in residence definition affect the counting of the “floating” population in China and illegal immigrants in the United States. Underenumeration of women in India, younger children in China, and illegal immigrants and minorities in the United States have had major effects. Such is the nature of comparative

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Page 30 TABLE 2-1 Population Size and Components of Population Change by Nation and Study Region, 1990 China Study Regions India Study Regions U.S. Study Regions Total China a Pearl River b Jitai Basin Total India c Kerala Haryana Total U.S. d South Florida Chicago World Total population (millions) 1,139 15.4 2.0 851 29.1 16.5 250 4.6 7.4 5,278 Annual population growth (percent) 1.4 4.0 1.3 2.1 1.3 2.0 1.0 2.6 0.2 1.7 Rate of natural increase (per thousand persons) 14 12 8 20 16 25 8 4 9 17 Residual rate of net migration (per thousand persons) e .5 29 5 −3 −5 2 22 −7 – Crude birth rate (per thousand persons) 21 17 13 31 23 35 16.6 14 17 27 Total fertility rate (births per woman) 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.8 1.8 4.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 3.4 Crude death rate (deaths per thousand persons) 7 5 6 11 6 10 8.6 10 8 10 Life expectancy at birth 68.4 77.6 68.7 57.2 69.6 62.7 75.5 – – 61 Infant mortality rate (deaths per thousand births) 42.6 NA 45 79.9 17 75 8.6 7 8 58 a Average annual rates for calendar year 1990. Data from U.S. Census Bureau, 2000. b Includes estimates for the “floating” population using known increment for Shenzhen to augment the value proportionally for each municipality in the Pearl River Delta. Data from the 1990 Census of China and the Guangdong and Shenzhen Statistical Yearbooks. c Rates for total India from U.S. Census Bureau, 2000. Values for Kerala and Haryana are for 1991. d Rates for total United States from U.S. Census Bureau, 2000. e Calculated value of annual rate of population growth minus annual rate of natural increase. SOURCES: U. S. Census Bureau. 2000. International Data Base. May 10, online at www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html; Statistical Yearbooks for Guangdong, Shenzhen, and Jiangxi, China; 1981 and 1991 Censuses of India.

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Page 31 TABLE 2-2 Selected Demographic Characteristics by Nation and Study Region, 1990 China Study Regions India Study Regions a U.S. Study Regions Total China Pearl River Jitai Basin Total India Kerala Haryana Total U.S. South Florida Chicago World Total population (millions) 1,139 15.4 2.4 851 29.1 16.5 250 4.6 7.4 5,278 Population density (persons/km2) 120 975 176 266 749 372 26 171 601 35 Sex ratio (men per hundred women) 106.5 101 105 107.9 96.5 116.0 95.1 93.64 95.1 101.5 Percent under age 15 27.7 37.2 29.7 37.8 21.5 19.3 22.5 30.7 Percent age 65 and over 5.6 4.6 5.4 3.8 12.6 19.1 11.3 6.8 Percent urban population 26.4 70 17.8 27.0 26.4 24.6 75.2 95.8 96.4 46.7 aValues for Indian states are for 1991. SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000. International Data Base. May 10. online at www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html; Statistical Yearbooks for Guangdong, Shenzhen, and Jiangxi, China; 1991 Census of India.

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Page 32 research that the comparisons among these studies have led to several individual research projects aimed at exploring conceptual and measurement issues in more detail. Nevertheless, several general comparisons can be made across sites. Age Structure and Age-Specific Vital Rates Rates of population growth and natural increase and crude birth and death rates help paint a rough picture of population change, but a fuller understanding of the underlying population dynamics lies in a more detailed look at the population age structure and age-specific birth and death rates. For example, a young population with a pattern of relatively high age-specific mortality rates could produce a lower crude death rate than an older population with relatively low age-specific mortality rates. Thus, although the United States and India have roughly the same crude death rate, life expectancy at birth in the United States in 2000 was 77.1 compared with 62.5 in India ( Figure 2-6). Because the Indian population in 2000 was younger—only 5 percent were over age 65 compared with 12 percent in the United States—the ratio of the number of deaths to the total population size is roughly equivalent. China, with 7 percent of its population over age 65 in 2000 and a life expectancy at birth of 71.4, has a crude death rate lower than those of either the United States or India. In infant mortality rates, the United States, with only 7 deaths per thousand births in 2000, is far below China's 29 deaths per thousand and India's 65 deaths per thousand. ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 2-6 Life expectancy at birth, India, China, and United States, 1950–2000.

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Page 33 ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 2-7 Total fertility rate, India, China, and United States, 1950–2000. The percentage of China's population under age 15 in 2000 was 25 percent compared with 21 percent in the United States and 34 percent in India. The Chinese total fertility rate in 2000 at 1.8 children per woman was also lower than the U.S. rate of 2.1, but the larger percentage of the population that is of child-bearing age led to a larger crude birth rate in China in 2000 (16 per thousand persons) than in the United States (14 per thousand persons). India's total fertility rate of 3.1 births per woman and its crude birth rate of 25 per thousand persons in 2000 were far higher than those of the United States and China ( Figure 2-7). Spatial Redistribution Another major aspect of population trends in all three countries is the change in the spatial distribution of the population. As economic development proceeds, the percentage of the labor force engaged in agriculture decreases and the percentage located in urban areas increases. In the United States the percentage of the labor force in agriculture declined from 51 percent in 1880 to 8 percent by 1960. During the same period the urban percentage increased from 28 percent to 70 percent. In recent decades Americans have remained highly mobile, with roughly one out of six persons changing residence each year. Much of the growth has been in the suburbs—often distant suburbs—of metropolitan areas, with the result that a larger and larger portion of the nation's territory has become urban. The two U.S. study regions grew dramatically for most of the last hundred years. Chicago's period of highest growth was from the mid-

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Page 341800s to the middle of the twentieth century. In recent years that growth has slowed (as has the growth of many older northern U.S. cities) to the point that the region as a whole shows net out-migration. South Florida began its growth later, at the beginning of the twentieth century, and still has significant in-migration. For China, this migratory flux is a relatively new phenomenon (Goldstein, 1990)—and one that has spawned a new category of migration known as the “floating population” (a population with official residence in the countryside and temporary residence in urban areas). Increased migration, such as the heavy flow into the rapidly urbanizing Pearl River Delta—has accompanied economic development and the recent rapid growth of major cities as well as smaller towns (Ma and Lin, 1993). India still has a large proportion of its labor force in agriculture and a relatively low rate of urbanization, but at the same time many of its cities are now so large that they count among the world's major metropolises. Migration—particularly rural to urban—has shown signs of expansion in recent years, consistent with the small net out-migration from largely rural Haryana, which attracts workers to its highly productive farms and agroindustry but loses more to the cities in other states. Kerala also is registering a small net out-migration, the result of continuing out-migration to urban centers in India and to overseas locations such as the Persian Gulf. This out-migration is partially balanced, however, by return migration from those areas. THEORETICAL BACKGROUND AND STUDY FINDINGS The theoretical literature related to population, consumption, environment, and technology is complex. However, it is possible to broadly classify theories by their positive or negative view of population growth. Those with a positive view tend to emphasize the productive side of population. Those with a negative view concentrate on consumption by the population. Each approach has a long intellectual tradition, each views consumption, environment, and technology differently, and each leads to strikingly different conclusions (Bongaarts, 1996; Keyfitz, 1996). Moreover, the earlier theoretical formulations often refer to closed societies, an untenable assumption with today's high levels of immigration and economic globalization. People as Consumers and Producers The view of people as consumers can be traced back to Thomas Malthus's “An Essay on the Principle of Population” published in 1798. In that essay, Malthus contends that agricultural production, limited by finite resources, cannot keep pace with population growth, but that “negative checks” such as famine and disease help to keep such growth in

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Page 35check. His theory holds that any increase in production is quickly consumed by the higher demands of a growing population. Thus society remains near the subsistence level. In this formulation, technology and social/economic organization are assumed to remain constant. Although Malthus relaxed this constraint in a later essay, yielding a more benign view of population growth, it was the first, more dramatic view that many writers later called “Malthusian.” In the centuries that followed, scholars made several attempts to translate Malthus's ideas into a sustainable population size. In one such formulation (Lipton, 1989), consumption per capita could remain high and population size would be held down by “checks” that would reduce fertility (or immigration). Recent formulations have developed the idea further into the notion of “carrying capacity.” More recently, the debate has switched emphasis again, to the effects of population and consumption on the natural environment; protection of the environment, unique ecosystems, and individual species (and their genome content) have become paramount. In this context, sustainability is as likely to refer to the sustainability of the natural system as to societal sustainability. Within this literature, perhaps the I = PAT formulation is the most well known—that is, negative impacts on the environment are a direct function of population size, affluence, and technology (Holdren and Ehrlich, 1974). Thus the population of a highly developed country with high consumption levels would have a much more negative effect on the environment than a similar population in a country with lower levels of economic development and consumption. The other major approach—viewing people as producers—also has a long intellectual tradition, stretching back to Adam Smith and Karl Marx. In both the classical and Marxist traditions, population is highly related to labor, one of the principal factors of production. A larger labor force will increase total production, capital and technology being held constant. Neoclassical economics has followed this tradition of the importance of labor. Although neoclassical economists recognize that population growth could disrupt the savings necessary for capital investment and further development, they are likely to view other factors, such as technological and organizational change, as more important in assuring development. In fact, Boserup (1965) has proposed that population growth sometimes foments technological change by providing the need (“more mouths to feed”) and the resources (“more available labor”). In recent years, Simon's advocacy of population as the “ultimate resource” has emphasized the producer aspect even more (Simon, 1981). 1 1It is not only population that is viewed differently by the two theoretical traditions. Economic development could be either the source of destructive consumption or the means of providing the resources for coping with society's pollution. Technology has a similar duality.

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Page 36 Recognition that population has both consuming and producing functions leads to a broader scope of demographic/environmental inquiries. Any given person may produce items for another's consumption rather than directly producing for himself. Through markets and trade, food and other goods produced in one area can be consumed in another area some distance away. Combine this with the increases in agricultural productivity that have released workers from the land and the issue of population size broadens into one of population distribution. As people leave an area with excess agricultural labor for nonagricultural pursuits in urban areas, a trade relationship develops in which the consumption of products in one area can have environmental consequences in a different area. Urbanization has led to a wide variety of environmental effects—local effects such as urban pollution and conversion of close-in agricultural land to urbanized areas and distant effects such as a reduction (or slower increase) in the rural population and a shift from producing food for local consumption to producing cash crops for distant markets. Today, linkage with the global economy inevitably accompanies economic development. All three countries are now strongly influenced by the rest of the world economy, and trends in one area or country cannot be analyzed without taking into account other international factors and flows of money, goods, and people across national boundaries. The U.S. economy runs a large negative trade balance with the rest of the world through its imports of vast quantities of raw materials and manufactured goods. It also is the world's leading destination for international migration; over 1 million people a year immigrate to the United States. Although immigration is not as important in China, that country has made vast strides in recent years in opening its economy to the rest of the world. As a result, it has become one of the world's major exporters of manufactured goods and a major recipient of overseas capital flows. Global economic factors have had their effects on India as well; its industries are becoming more open to the world market after decades of strong protection. Although immigration flows have only a small effect on India's overall population trends, capital flows and remittances from Indians abroad are playing an increasingly important role in the economy. Study Findings The vastly different characteristics of the six study regions provide a wide gamut for viewing the role of population as both an independent variable and a dependent variable. Population interacts with other factors in society through cultural, political, or economic institutions to affect land use and the environment. But just as surely, those factors, the envi-

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Page 37ronment, and changing land use patterns cause changes in the size, growth rate, and distribution of population itself. The predominantly rural sites of Kerala and Haryana in India and the Jitai Basin in China have had markedly different population trends. In recent years Kerala and the Jitai Basin have experienced declines in fertility and considerably lower population growth. The lower population growth has accompanied the conversion of agricultural land to less labor-intensive uses, whether it be the conversion of rice paddy to coconut or rubber plantations in Kerala or the transformation of marginal hillside cultivation to pine forests in the Jitai Basin. Haryana, by contrast, has been a major agricultural success story, but one where continued high fertility and ecological constraints threaten many of the gains from that success. In Kerala, the emphasis on education and social well-being has led to an exceptionally high level of health care and education for women and men. The high standard of health care is reflected in the low infant mortality rates and high levels of life expectancy (Zachariah et al., 1994). The high levels of female education have led to much lower levels of fertility than in the rest of India (Jeffrey, 1987). Of great importance are the effects of higher education on out-migration. The supply of human capital in Kerala seems to be too high for the amount of available financial capital (Madhavan, 1985). As Chapter 5 on Kerala points out, this situation has led to high levels of unemployment. Consequently, a substantial portion of the well-educated workforce has moved to the Gulf states or to other parts of India to find employment suitable to their skills, leading to net out-migration of about three per thousand persons a year. Although the traditional measures of personal income place Kerala in the lower half of Indian states, such measures do not capture the extensive flow of remittances back into the state from the highly skilled workforce of emigrants (Madhavan, 1985). The far-reaching land reform of recent decades in Kerala has had a more direct effect on land use change and population redistribution. It has reduced the average size of landholdings which, when combined with the increased skill levels and alternative opportunities for the recently educated population, has made paddy cultivation both uneconomical and undesirable. Moreover, Kerala has been the scene of substantial internal migration, with marked increases in the population in the highlands (associated with large-scale rubber cultivation) and the continued conversion of land to residential uses to meet the preference for single-family housing. In China's Jitai Basin, the influence of government policy on population change has been even more direct. The shift in government fertility policies from pro-natalist to the more recent one-child family program has had direct effects on population growth. The one-child policy, applicable to the urban population and some rural areas, led to moderate fertil

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Page 38ity declines. As the rate of population growth declined, the intensity of cultivation declined. That decline, together with government efforts to encourage reforestation, led to the conversion of land from cultivation to forests (Li, 1990). Since 1980, the economic liberalization that led to economic growth in coastal cities and the acceptance of floating populations has led to the large-scale, de facto migration of young adults to the cities of Shanghai and Guangzhou and their surrounding economic zones. As Chapter 8 on the Jitai Basin details, this floating population cannot legally migrate permanently and must return regularly to its household registry locations within the Jitai Basin. As this population has grown, continual seasonal migration has led to an influx of money, technology, and knowledge into the province and has increased the economic well-being of those remaining behind. In contrast to the relative stagnation of agricultural production in Kerala and the Jitai Basin, Haryana owes much of its increase in per capita income to the introduction of improved agricultural technology—particularly new genetic strains of crops associated with the Green Revolution. The increased agricultural production, however, has been accompanied by considerable environmental consequences—salinization, aquatic weed infestation, and pesticide pollution (Repetto, 1994). The increased affluence has been influential in lowering the mortality rate. Yet increased affluence has not been accompanied by significant improvements in the status and educational level of women (see Chapter 6 on Haryana). The fertility level remains high, and the crude annual birth rate and the rate of natural increase are above the national average. Although Haryana has a small net out-migration, population growth is still high ( Table 2-1). One consequence of this high growth rate is a marked decline in the net sown area per agricultural worker, from 3.0 hectares in 1971 to 2.0 in 1991, with similar declines in the average size of landholdings. The predominantly urban sites in the study—the Pearl River Delta, South Florida, and Chicago—have the higher migration rates (Chicago, until recently) characteristic of areas with high economic growth, but they also have the lower fertility levels typical of developed economies and of urban areas in general. A closer look at the Pearl River Delta (described in Chapter 9) reveals the conflicting sides of the Chinese economic and demographic policies also at work in the Jitai Basin. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and the other special economic zones of the Pearl River Delta are displaying the amazing economic growth produced by two decades of market-oriented development (Ma and Lin, 1993). Demographic policies, on the other hand, have led to a reduction in the rate of natural increase in the population of the Pearl River Delta. Because the one-child family policy is strictly enforced

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Page 39in urban areas and because economic imperatives in these areas lead to increased female participation in the labor force, fertility has declined sharply. Left to its own internal population growth, the Pearl River Delta could not meet the labor demands of its dynamic economy. The demand for labor has been met through legal, formal changes of residence for a portion of the population, but mostly by the influx of the “floating population” described earlier. The national and regional authorities have permitted this “temporary” migration to meet the major labor needs of the dynamic urban economies. Although an attempt has been made to control and register the movement of the floating population (especially in Shenzhen City), official counts may miss some undocumented migrants and the numbers are likely higher than reported. The growing attraction of the population to the Delta and away from the more rural parts of the country has been instrumental in major land use changes as agricultural uses of the land have given way to industrial, commercial, and residential development. In the counties of South Florida, fertility rates are low in global terms but relatively high when compared with those of other developed areas. Both domestic and international migration to the area continues to stimulate population growth, although at a much slower rate than in the early part of the twentieth century. Chapter 10 on South Florida describes various stages of land use change and population settlement from the frontier days before 1900 to the present, drainage and land conversion activities during 1900–1930, the postwar economic boom and flood control projects of 1950–1970, and the more recent periods of environmental protection and restoration of natural habitats. The government played a key role in the land use conversions both in the early drainage activities and in the later preservation and restoration activities. Although suburbanization of the South Florida population continues and growth is occurring farther and farther from the urban centers, tough zoning measures and federal ownership of large portions of the original Everglades have preserved a vast low-density area near the built-up urban areas. The city of Chicago and the surrounding region grew rapidly from the mid-1800s to the mid-1900s. During that period and into the last half of the twentieth century, the expanding growth of Greater Chicago resulted in the widespread conversion of agricultural land to urban and suburban uses. Although fertility rates were high during the late 1800s, the major factor was massive in-migration from the east and later from the rural parts of the Midwest as agricultural employment gave way to manufacturing and service-based employment. Chapter 11 on Chicago chronicles this growth and Chicago's transformation from a frontier town to a major agrarian and then commercial center. It also depicts its rapid suburbanization in recent years and the transformation of large parts of the immediate countryside from agricultural to residential and commercial uses.

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Page 40 CONCLUSION The case studies described here and elsewhere in this volume do not support a view of the world in which changes in land use and environmental degradation stem solely from the numerical population. As demonstrated in each of the study regions, the human population exercises its influence more by its actions than by its numerical presence. In fact, the most egregious omission in a formula such as I = PAT is the role of society and its institutions—economic, political, and cultural. In the study regions, it is precisely these societal factors that most affect population, consumption, land use, and the environment. In each case study the nature and influence of social, economic, and political factors may have been different, but they were always profound. Economic development seems to be the prime mover in population change—first in declines in mortality, later in fertility declines, and even later in increased population mobility and urbanization. Government policies can be effective as well—for example, public health campaigns to reduce mortality, strong national family planning programs, and strict regional and local zoning and land use restrictions that influence population distribution. Much of population theory deals with closed systems, but in today's world there is no such thing. Population can have an effect on the environment at great distances, and flows of population and goods across boundaries can permit localized higher densities, while the concentration of population into urban areas may have the effect of decreasing density over much larger areas that are losing population to the cities. REFERENCES Banister, J. 1985 . China's Changing Population. Washington, D.C. : U.S. Census Bureau . Bongaarts, J. 1996 . Population pressure and the food supply system in the developing world. Population and Development Review 22(3): 483–503 . Boserup, E. 1965 . The Conditions of Agricultural Progress. London : Allen and Unwin . Cooney, R. S., and J. Li. 1994 . Household registration type and compliance with the “one child'” policy in China, 1979–1988. Demography 31(1): 21–32 . Davis, K. 1945 . The world demographic transition. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences 237: 1–11 . Ehrlich, P. R. 1968 . The Population Bomb. New York : Ballentine Books . Feeney, G., and Y. Jianhua. 1994 . Below replacement fertility in China? A close look at recent evidence. Population Studies 48(3): 381–394 . Goldstein, S. 1990 . Urbanization in China,1982–87: Effects of migration and reclasification. Population and Development Review 16(4): 673–701 . Holdren, J. P., and P. R. Ehrlich. 1974 . Human population and the global environment. American Scientist 62: 282–292 . Jeffrey, R. 1987 . Governments and culture: How women made Kerala literate. Pacific Affairs 60(3): 447–472 .

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Page 41 Jolly, C. L., and B. B. Torrey 1993 . Population and Land-use in Developing Countries. Washington, D.C. : National Academy Press . Keyfitz, N. 1996 . Population growth, development, and the environment. Population Studies 50(3): 335–359 . Li, J-N. 1990 . Population effects on deforestation and soil erosion in China. Population and Development Review 16: 254–258 . Lipton, M. 1989 . Response to rural population growth: Malthus and the moderns. Population and Development Review 15(supplement): 215–242 . Ma, L. J. C., and C. Lin. 1993 . Development of towns in China: A case study of Guangdong Province. Population and Development Review 19(3): 583–606 . Madhavan, M. C. 1985 . Indian emigrants: Numbers, characteristics, and economic impact. Population and Development Review 11(3): 457–481 . Meyer, W. H., and B. L. Turner II. 1992 . Human population growth and global land-use/cover change. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 23: 39–61 . Repetto, R. 1994 . The “Second India” Revisited: Population, Poverty, and Environmental Stress over Two Decades. Washington, D.C. : World Resources Institute. Simon, J. 1981 . The Ultimate Resource. Princeton : Princeton University Press . U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 . International Data Base. May 10, online at www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html Zachariah, K. C., et al. 1994 . Demographic Transition in Kerala in the 1980s. Thiruvananathapuram : Centre for Development Studies. Zeng, Y. 1996 . Is fertility in China in 1991–92 far below replacement level? Population Studies 50(1): 27–34 .

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