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11

Evolution of the Chicago Landscape: Population Dynamics, Economic Development, and Land Use Change

Edwin S. Mills Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University

Cynthia S. Simmons Department of Geography, Michigan State University

Over the years the natural landscape of the Chicago region in the American Midwest has changed dramatically, from near-pristine prairie and forests in the pre-settlement period of the early 1800s, to an agriculture-dominated landscape by 1880, to the major metropolis of the twenty-first century. Chicago has become one of the world's great industrial, financial services, and transportation centers because of the interaction between its urban core, with its vast array of services, and some of the world's most productive farmland, which stretches several hundred kilometers from the southwestern corner of Lake Michigan where Chicago is situated. Indeed, Chicago has been aptly characterized by Cronon (1991) as “Nature's Metropolis.1

This chapter examines the changes in land use associated with the historical evolution of economic development, population growth, and environmental interactions in the city of Chicago and its surrounding area. The Chicago region, as defined here, lies in the northeastern corner of the state of Illinois, and is made up of Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will counties (see Figure 11-1). The significant industrial development to the east in Indiana is not included. The upcoming sections describe the salient geographic features and land use patterns of this region, as well as its demographic characteristics and economic structure.

1In addition to Cronon's remarkable geographic and environmental history of Chicago, Chicago has been the laboratory for pioneering studies of urban spatial structure, location theory, planning and design, and urban ecology by scholars at the University of Chicago and by Chicago planners.



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Page 275 11 Evolution of the Chicago Landscape: Population Dynamics, Economic Development, and Land Use Change Edwin S. Mills Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Cynthia S. Simmons Department of Geography, Michigan State University Over the years the natural landscape of the Chicago region in the American Midwest has changed dramatically, from near-pristine prairie and forests in the pre-settlement period of the early 1800s, to an agriculture-dominated landscape by 1880, to the major metropolis of the twenty-first century. Chicago has become one of the world's great industrial, financial services, and transportation centers because of the interaction between its urban core, with its vast array of services, and some of the world's most productive farmland, which stretches several hundred kilometers from the southwestern corner of Lake Michigan where Chicago is situated. Indeed, Chicago has been aptly characterized by Cronon (1991) as “Nature's Metropolis.” 1 This chapter examines the changes in land use associated with the historical evolution of economic development, population growth, and environmental interactions in the city of Chicago and its surrounding area. The Chicago region, as defined here, lies in the northeastern corner of the state of Illinois, and is made up of Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, and Will counties (see Figure 11-1). The significant industrial development to the east in Indiana is not included. The upcoming sections describe the salient geographic features and land use patterns of this region, as well as its demographic characteristics and economic structure. 1In addition to Cronon's remarkable geographic and environmental history of Chicago, Chicago has been the laboratory for pioneering studies of urban spatial structure, location theory, planning and design, and urban ecology by scholars at the University of Chicago and by Chicago planners.

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Page 276 ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 11-1 Illinois and the Chicago study region. SOURCE: U.S. Geological Survey. An examination of the two main environmental impacts that development has had on the Chicago region—resource exhaustion and pollution—follows. The chapter concludes with a discussion linking the major drivers of land use change with the Chicago region's evolving landscape. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY REGION The six Illinois counties making up the Chicago study region ( Figure 11-1) have a total land area of approximately 9,700 square kilometers. Overall, the region can be characterized as a flat plain. In the early nineteenth century the land was covered primarily with natural prairie grass (bluestem, side oats grama, Indian grass, and others). Some forested areas, consisting of old oak and hickory hammocks, were found in the northeastern reaches of the region (Sullivan, 1998). As the agricultural

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Page 277frontier moved west, however, the landscape was quickly transformed. The natural grasses were burned, plowed, and eventually replaced with domestic crops such as wheat, corn, and oats. The soils in the region are predominantly mollisols, dark, nutrient-rich soils created by the degradation and regrowth of prairie grass. The alfisols found in northern Lake County are light in color and provide a mixture of rich and poor-quality nutrients. The region's average annual temperatures range from 24°C to 26°C in the summer months and from −4°C to 0°C in the winter months. The average annual precipitation is somewhat less than 1 meter. Overall, then, the region has an ideal combination of soils, precipitation, and temperature for high agricultural productivity. Historically, the resource base of fertile soil and abundant timber provided the impetus for the local economy. Today, Chicago depends on its rural hinterland much less than in earlier years, but its business service sector still provides sales and financing of agricultural property and legal, financial, processing, and transportation services for agricultural products. Land use in the Chicago region has changed dramatically since the early 1800s when it was still primarily unsettled, except for scattered indigenous encampments. This natural environment quickly gave way to agricultural production, and by 1900 more than 90 percent of the region was under cultivation (see Table 11-1 and Figure 11-2). 2 Although agriculture has dominated land use in the region even up to the present day, 2Because detailed land use data for early time periods were not available for the Chicago region, a geographic information system (GIS) was created that compiled existing data on built-up areas (urban) and approximated agricultural and natural land use data. The results of the land use change analysis for urban, agricultural, and natural areas are presented in Table 11-1 and Table 11-2, and Figure 11-2 and Table 11-3. The pre-settlement landscape of around 1821 was presumed to be a near natural setting based on a re-creation of the landscape by Philip Hanson in 1969 and reproduced by Chicago's Field Museum in 1998. Data on built-up areas were provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for 1876, 1900, and 1955. The data for natural areas were derived from data provided by the Illinois Department of Natural Resources for the 1990s, and these data also were used for the earlier time periods. It was assumed that natural areas in the 1990s would most likely correspond to natural areas in the earlier time periods because natural lands today were probably areas not suitable for agriculture. All other land not built-up or classified natural was designated as agricultural, which accounted for about 90 percent of the land area in 1900. This designation is supported by the agricultural census for 1900, which reported that 89 percent of the region was farmland. The land use data for 1972 and 1992 provided by USGS were classified using the Anderson classification system: (1) urban, (2) agriculture, (3) grass/rangeland, (4) forest, (5) water, (6) wetland, (7) barren. For the aggregate analysis of the three main land uses (agriculture, urban, and natural), categories 3–7 were combined into one category—natural. The land use change analysis presented in Table 11-3 and Figure 11-4 for 1972 and 1992 used the USGS land use data and classification system. This analysis is intended to indicate general land use trends and not produce precise estimates of changes in land use.

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Page 278 TABLE 11-1 Land Use in the Chicago Region, Pre-settlement–1992 (percent) Pre-settlement 1900 1955 1992 Built-up 0 6 12 34 Agriculture 0 90 84 48 Natural 100 4 4 19 SOURCES: Calculated by authors from data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (1900, 1955, 1992) and Illinois Department of Natural Resources (1990). the landscape patterns in Figure 11-2 reveal the expanding urban influence. By 1900 urban areas made up 6 percent of the region. This trend intensified as agricultural areas dwindled by about 43 percent between 1955 and 1992 and urban areas nearly tripled, from 12 percent in 1955 to 34 percent in 1992. Overall, from 1900 to 1992 urban areas increased six-fold and agricultural land decreased by nearly half. Table 11-2 provides estimates of land use change for three conversion episodes: (1) pre-settlement-1900; (2) 1900–1955; and (3) 1955–1992. The data reveal the increasing urban encroachment into agricultural land. The most substantial loss of agricultural land occurred between 1955 and 1992, when more than a quarter of the land classified as agricultural in 1955 was shifted to urban use. The greatest land cover conversion, however, occurred during the pre-settlement period to 1900; the conversion from natural areas ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 11-2 Evolution of land use, Chicago region, 1900, 1955, 1992.

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Page 279 TABLE 11-2 Land Use Change Matrix, Chicago Region, Pre-settlement–1992 Land Use Change (as a percent of initial land cover) Pre-settlement–1900 1900–1955 1955–1992 Agriculture to agriculture 91 56 Agriculture to natural 0.8 17 Agriculture to built-up 8 26 Natural to agriculture 92 17 11 Natural to natural 4 82 84 Natural to built-up 4 0.9 4 Built-up to agriculture 11 1 Built-up to natural 0.4 6 Built-up to built-up 88 93 SOURCE: Calculated by authors from data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (1900, 1955, 1992) and Illinois Department of Natural Resources (1990). remaining. The decades that followed saw the substantial loss of natural areas to both agriculture and urban expansion (see Table 11-2). Early foresight by private and public interests resulted in some preservation of natural areas, albeit relatively small. For example, in 1909 the Burnham Plan outlined a system of protected parklands along the shore of Lake Michigan and throughout the study region. And in 1915 the Illinois General Assembly enacted legislation creating public preserves (Chicago Region Biodiversity Council, 1999). The actual quantity and spatial distribution of these areas are difficult to ascertain for early time periods because of a lack of accurate maps. However, U.S. Geological Survey land use data for 1972 and 1992 indicate that land classified as natural has expanded (see Table 11-3). Taken as a whole, natural areas, which include the categories grass/rangeland, forest, water, wetland, and barren land, increased from 11 percent in 1972 to 19 percent in 1992. A disaggregation of the category natural areas into its respective categories ( Table 11-3) shows that the greatest degree of recovery (an increase of nearly 6 percent) occurred on forestland. About 8 percent of land classified as agricultural in 1972 and 9 percent of land classified as urban were classified as forest in 1992, representing 36 percent and 27 percent of total forestland, respectively. Wetland and grassland areas also have experienced recovery; they have more than doubled. 3 3Much of this apparent recovery, however, may stem from classification differences from one period to the next and from the fact that the actual land area represented by these land classifications is relatively small.

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Page 280 TABLE 11-3 Land Use Classification and Change Matrix, 1972 and 1992 (square kilometers) Land Use Classification, 1992 Land Use Classification, 1972 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1972 a Total Area 1972 b Percent of Total Area 1 – Built-up 2,587 175 35 300 50 30 9 3,186 33 (81) (5) (1) (9) (2) (1) (0) 2 – Agriculture 457 4,269 110 408 50 73 13 5,380 56 (8) (79) (2) (8) (1) (1) (0) 3 – Grass/rangeland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) 4 – Forest 65 74 19 349 21 78 0 606 6 (11) (12) (3) (58) (3) (13) (0) 5 – Water 9 7 2 13 93 10 0 134 1 (7) (5) (1) (10) (69) (7) (0) 6 – Wetland 6 22 3 17 11 27 0 86 1 (7) (26) (3) (20) (13) (31) (0) 7 – Barren 107 66 8 37 24 10 9 261 3 (41) (25) (3) (14) (9) (4) (3) 1992 Total area c 3,231 4,613 177 1,124 249 228 31 9,653 100 1992 Percent of total area d 33 48 2 12 3 2 0 100 NOTE: Land use data across rows represent the distribution of 1972 land cover as of 1992. In parentheses is the percentage of the 1972 total area by classification. For example, 2,587 square kilometers or 81 percent of the built-up area in 1972 remained built-up in 1992. The land use data in the columns sum to the total land area by classification for 1992. a Total 1972 land area in each classification, which is the sum of the data across the rows. b Percent of total land area represented by each classification. For example, 33 percent of land area in 1972 was classified built-up. c Total 1992 land area in each classification, which is the sum of the data in the columns. d Percent of total land area represented by each classification. For example, 33 percent of land area in 1992 was classified built-up. SOURCE: Calculated by authors from data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (1972 and 1992). Both governmental and nongovernmental groups—such as the Openlands Project and Chicago Wilderness—have pursued efforts to protect and expand natural areas. Overall, more than 80,000 kilometers of land in the Chicago region are currently held in protective reserves by federal, state, county, and municipal governments, as well as private organizations (Chicago Region Biodiversity Council, 1999).

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Page 281 MAJOR DRIVERS AND CONSEQUENCES OF LAND COVER CHANGE The major factors driving land use change in the Chicago region are population dynamics, economic development, and environmental changes. Settlement and Population Dynamics For centuries, Native Americans lived at low population densities near the point where the small Chicago River empties into Lake Michigan, within a kilometer of what is now the center of Chicago's business district. The first European fur traders arrived about 1770, and in 1803 the U.S. Army built Fort Dearborn where the river emptied into the lake. Mixed European and Native American settlements expanded slowly during the early decades of the nineteenth century, but rapid growth began with the westward movement of the frontier. Starting from a base of fewer than 5,000 people in 1840, the population of the city of Chicago grew at the extraordinary rate of 20 percent per year until 1850 ( Table 11-4). During the half-century after 1840, the city's TABLE 11-4 Population of the City of Chicago, Chicago Region, and United States, 1840–1990 (thousands) Census Year City Region a United States 1840 5 35 17,062 1850 30 115 23,191 1860 112 259 31,443 1870 299 493 38,558 1880 503 771 50,155 1890 1,100 1,391 62,947 1900 1,699 2,084 75,994 1910 2,185 2,702 91,972 1920 2,702 3,394 105,710 1930 3,376 4,449 122,775 1940 3,397 4,569 131,669 1950 3,621 5,177 150,697 1960 3,550 6,220 179,323 1970 3,367 6,978 203,211 1980 3,005 7,103 226,545 1990 2,784 7,261 248,709 a In this table the Chicago region consists of the six counties that comprise the Northeastern Planning Commission Region. SOURCES: City population: 1840–1980, Local Community Fact Book, Chicago Metropolitan Area. n.d. Chicago: Chicago Review Press; 1980 and 1990, U.S. Census as reported in Woods and Poole. 1997. MSA Profile. Washington, D.C.: Woods and Poole Economics. Region population: 1840–1990, U.S. Census Reports. U.S. population: U.S. Census of the Population.

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Page 282 population grew at a rate of more than 11 percent per year. The city's growth reflected in part the rapid urbanization under way nationally and in part the massive influx of people into the Midwest attracted by its economic prospects. The Chicago region grew more slowly than the city itself. Nevertheless, the region's annual population growth was about 7.3 percent during the same period. From 1900 to 1950 the city's growth rate declined dramatically, to 1.5 percent per year, and from 1950 to 1990 the population actually decreased about 0.5 percent per year. Although between 1840 and 1920 the population of the city grew much more rapidly than the population of the region and the United States, after the mid-twentieth century the population of the city declined, while both the region and the United States experienced slow but steady population growth. As noted, the initial population growth of the Chicago region can clearly be attributed to the massive influx of migrants. Later, however, natural population growth was at work. The unusually low natural population growth in 1930 was an anomaly reflecting the low national birth rates attributable to the dire conditions brought on by the Great Depression. Natural growth accelerated, however, with the return of prosperity during the 1940s and especially during the “baby boom” decade of the 1950s. After this peak period, natural population growth in Illinois and elsewhere steadily declined with significant reductions in both birth and death rates. As some baby boomers reached their childbearing years during the 1980s, the natural growth rate increased slightly. In the early time periods, population was concentrated in the core of the city, and the hinterlands were sparsely populated (see Figure 11-3). In 1950 population growth began to intensify beyond Cook County. And from 1970 to 1990 the massive suburbanization pattern was unmistakable. In fact, from 1970 to 1990 the region's population grew by more than 4 percent, whereas Cook County's population fell 7 percent. Cook County has been almost entirely urban since urban data became available in 1900, when Chicago reached its present land area which is about half of Cook County (see Table 11-5, which provides state data for 1900–1990, but they are dominated by the Chicago region). The non-Chicago half of Cook County contained only 8 percent of the county's population, most of whom lived in relatively small suburban centers. According to Table 11-5, urban trends for the region are greatly influenced by the sheer number of urban residents in Cook County. Consequently, aggregate urban measures for the region indicate that the population has been more than 90 percent urban since the turn of the century. This figure is misleading, however; outside of Cook County the population was only 45 percent urban in 1900, and that percentage increased markedly during the century, to 91 percent by 1990.

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Page 283 ~ enlarge ~ FIGURE 11-3 Population density trends, Chicago region, 1880–1990. SOURCE: U.S. Census of Population. Today Chicago is the third-most-populous metropolitan area in the United States, after New York and Los Angeles. In 1997 the official Chicago metropolitan area was home to 7.8 million residents, making it almost as large as the two or three largest metropolitan areas of China and India. By contrast with China and India, however, U.S. metropolitan areas have low population densities. In 1997 the density of the Chicago . TABLE 11-5 Percent of Urban Population, Chicago Region, Illinois, and United States, 1900–1990 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 Cook County 96 97 97 98 97 99 99 100 100 100 Chicago region (excluding Cook County) 45 50 56 64 62 67 77 83 88 91 Region total 90 91 93 94 93 95 95 96 97 97 Illinois 54 62 68 74 74 78 81 83 83 85 United States 40 46 51 56 57 64 70 74 83 75 SOURCE: U.S. Census Report of Population.

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Page 284 region was 594 persons per square kilometer. In 1994 the city of Chicago contained 2.7 million residents, or 4,704 per square kilometer. The densities of U.S. metropolitan areas and their central cities have declined substantially during recent decades as population and employment have dispersed from centers to peripheries, or suburbs Economic Structure The second driver of land use change is economic development. The Chicago region began the twentieth century as the major agroindustrial region in the nation and ended it as a center of international trade and financial services. Resource-Related Activities The half-circle centered on Chicago and extending from the southern shores of the Great Lakes upward across the southern parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota—all in all, an area of about 1 million square kilometers with a radius of about 800 kilometers—contains some of the world's best grain-producing farmland. Until recently, most of the region's grain was shipped to Chicago. Some was processed in the region, but most was shipped unrefined to the East Coast and Europe for processing. Chicago's primary contributions were storage, marketing, grading, financing, and transportation. Many of the technical advances in grain production originated in the “breadbasket” surrounding Chicago—plows designed for the rock-hard virgin midwestern soils and other farm equipment, fertilizers, grain genetics, and harvesting techniques. Sophisticated financing, futures, and options markets were invented in Chicago, which to this day is the site of the world's most important grain and livestock financial and speculative markets. Even in the early nineteenth century, farmers could mitigate the risk of crop price fluctuations by contracting sales of their crops on futures markets prior to or early in the crop season. These were complex speculative markets in which prices for future delivery fluctuated with plantings, weather conditions, and forecasts in crop-growing regions and with economic conditions and forecasts of supply and demand on the East Coast and in Europe. Great fortunes were made, and sometimes lost, in Chicago's speculative grain, timber, and livestock markets. Before it became farmland, much of the land west of Chicago was well-watered natural grassland. To the east was extensive timberland, cleared for farms by early in the nineteenth century. Some of the timber was used for structures, but much was burned. Extensive forests also were found north of Chicago, in Wisconsin and Michigan, where by 1830 commercial timber cutting and sawing had become established busi-

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Page 285nesses. These operations began just north of Chicago in primeval forest, but gradually moved, as land was denuded, to about 500 kilometers north of Chicago at the northern end of Lake Michigan. Timber was cut and moved to sawmills scattered up and down the lake. Much of the cutting took place in winter, when logs could be dragged across the snow by mules. The work was wretched, poor paying, and dangerous. Many of the cutters were farmers, who were free of farmwork during winter months. The lumber was used to build houses in Chicago and houses and barns on surrounding farms, but some was shipped east. The best markets, however, were west, where there were almost no trees; the eastern part of the country had its own timber. By 1900 most of the usable timber in the Chicago region had been cut, over a forested area of perhaps 50,000 square kilometers, and the lumber business shrank. Much of the timberland was converted to grazing and farming, and those activities are still under way in parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. Nevertheless, in northern Wisconsin and Michigan large tracts of land have reverted to beautiful second-growth forest. Because of the costs of transportation, most sawmills were located close to the forests and not in Chicago. Chicago's contribution was processing (mostly drying), fabrication (some prefabricated houses were shipped from Chicago), wholesaling, storage, financing, and transportation of lumber. Lumber storage occupied large tracts of land in Chicago (on the east bank of the south branch of the Chicago River, about 3 kilometers south of the present central business district). Apparently, the lumber business has not caused significant environmental problems in Chicago. Sawdust and wood chips have long had a variety of uses. Partly because of the availability of grain and partly because of cheap land, the Midwest also has been the major beef- and pork-producing region of the country since even before the Civil War (1861–1865). Cattle and hogs replaced the bison that numbered 20–40 million on the fertile grassland in the early part of the nineteenth century. Bison herds dwindled as railroads crisscrossed the plains, making the land valuable for grain and domestic animal production. At first, most of the livestock was shipped live to Chicago, where it was also shipped live eastward. By mid-century, however, livestock were being slaughtered, graded, and processed in Chicago and the carcasses then shipped on to the East Coast. Indeed, in 1870 about half of all hogs and more than a quarter of all cattle received in Chicago were slaughtered there. By 1900, more than 83 percent of the hogs and 65 percent of the cattle received were being slaughtered in Chicago. Thus between 1870 and 1900 the number of livestock slaughtered in Chicago increased more than eight times (U.S. Census Bureau, 1902). Shipment was restricted initially to cold months to provide natural refrigeration, but by the end of the nineteenth century electrically refrigerated rail freight cars were in use. Early in the twentieth century, as

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Page 290al., 1977). Such a loss of prime farmland has, in fact, occurred in the Chicago region, where low-density residential land uses are transforming the landscape at a rapid rate (Greene, 1997). Nevertheless, the implications for national-level agricultural production are debatable (Vesterby et al., 1994). For 40 years the United States has produced excess grain, and livestock also were produced in excess during the 1990s. Indeed, the domestic demand for grain products is saturated, and dietary changes (to reduce fat consumption) have weakened demand for animal products. In addition, the limitations of foreign demand (by Russia, Japan, and much of East Asia) caused reductions in exports during much of the 1990s. Nevertheless, the United States is a major exporter of agricultural products. In the 1990s such products accounted for 10 percent of all U.S. exports, and the positive agricultural balance of trade during that period was between $16 billion and $26 billion. Urban Activities The economic hallmark of the city of Chicago in the nineteenth century was extremely rapid growth with almost no regulation or taxation by governments. Although Chicago was probably a higher-wage city than Boston or New York (both native-born and immigrant workers tended to move west, partly because of higher wages), much of the work was dull, ugly, and dangerous. Nevertheless, living standards were probably somewhat higher than those on farms in the region. Entrepreneurship and practical innovation characterized the city, and some of the great American fortunes were accumulated in Chicago in railroads, steel, meatpacking, grain, real estate development, and speculation. One of the most impressive characteristics of nineteenth-century Chicago was its ability to bring together imaginative entrepreneurs, financial capital, large numbers of productive workers, innovative financial and production techniques, and transport innovation. Massive investments were made in what is now called infrastructure capital: docks, dredging, landfill, streets, water supply, transportation, and, near the end of the century, electrified commuter subway and elevated rail lines. Private companies, with almost no government intervention or support, built most. Another important characteristic of Chicago's early development was the deep and intimate interaction between the urban and resource-related sectors. In 1900 Chicago had little complex industry, and its industrial base did not compare with the textile, garment, and leather industries of southern New England. Although entrepreneurship, worker productivity, and capital (large amounts of it sent from Europe) all played important roles, Chicago owed its early growth and prosperity to its surrounding land and to the workers, many of them immigrants from northern Europe, who extracted its bountiful products.

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Page 291 For the post–World War II period, detailed sectoral employment data are available at the county level. For the longer period, the only data available are classified by sector—primary (described earlier), secondary, and tertiary. The secondary sector includes manufacturing, construction, and public utilities. The tertiary sector includes the business and consumer services provided by both government and the private sector. Some private services are provided by profit-seeking firms and some by nonprofit organizations. In the United States the maintenance and repair of produced goods are included in the tertiary sector, unlike in some other countries that include them in manufacturing. The vast majority of secondary and tertiary jobs are located in urban areas. In the United States, about 20 percent of workers live in rural areas and have nonfarm jobs, but in recent decades most of those jobs have been located in nearby urban areas. 4 Even in 1840, 56 percent of Chicago's workforce held secondary sector jobs. For Cook County's entire workforce, the percentage was about half of that, and for the rest of the Chicago region (excluding Cook County), the percentage was about half that of Cook County (see Figure 11-5). By World War II, the city's secondary sector workforce was about 35 percent, a figure now typical of a developing country. Across the geographic scales, the percentage of the workforce in the secondary sector has declined steadily since the early postwar period ( Figure 11-5). By 1990 the secondary sector constituted less than 18 percent of the total national workforce, and 17 percent of the Chicago region's workforce. Most of the decline in secondary employment in both the nation and in the Chicago region has been in the manufacturing sector. By the late 1990s the Chicago region workforce had become even less concentrated in manufacturing and the secondary sector than in the country as a whole. Manufacturing remains an extremely important sector nationally and regionally, but because of rapid productivity growth it has not been a source of significant job growth for at least 30 years. Figure 11-5 reveals the massive shift in the region's workforce to the tertiary sector. From 7 percent in 1840, the tertiary sector's workforce share grew to almost 80 percent in 1990. What is not widely appreciated is that the tertiary sector's share for the region had already grown to nearly 60 percent in 1930 and hardly changed until the decade of the 1970s. In the 1970s and 1980s there was a further explosion in service sector jobs. And by 1990 the Chicago region had a somewhat greater concentration of employment in the tertiary sector than the country as a whole. 4Data are by place of residence, not by place of employment. Even in the nineteenth century, some workers commuted to Cook County urban jobs from rural residences in outer counties. By the 1920s inward commuting by both public and private vehicles was substantial.

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Page 292 In the Chicago region, as in most metropolitan areas, tertiary jobs are much more centralized than secondary sector jobs. In 1990 the percentage of Cook County employment in the secondary sector was smaller than that of the region as a whole, whereas the percentage in the tertiary sector was larger than that for the entire region (see Figure 11-5). Retailing and elementary and secondary education are large tertiary subsectors, and they are about as dispersed as population. Almost all other tertiary subsectors are more centralized than population, including wholesaling, finance, consulting, law, professional services, and hotels. The region's movement from secondary to tertiary sector jobs has been remarkably smooth over recent decades. The proportion of the region's workforce employed in the tertiary sector rose from 67 to 80 percent between 1970 and 1990. The region's income per capita remained more than 20 percent above the national average, and during that period manufacturing employment fell by about one-third and tertiary employment rose by almost two-thirds. In summary, in Chicago's earliest days it was a center for processing, transporting, and financing the bounty produced by the agricultural land in the region and hundreds of kilometers beyond. By the end of the nineteenth century, most of the region's industry was engaged in processing the output of the surrounding rural and resource-based agricultural, livestock, and forestry products. Early in the twentieth century, much of the region's secondary sector began to veer toward “heavy industry” in which resource inputs came from farther away and in which Chicago's most important attraction was as a shipping and rail (then road, then air) transportation center. The city became the financial capital of the Midwest, which it remains today. Although the region is a center for industry, for a half-century most employment growth has been in the tertiary sector, making the metropolitan area much more similar to large metropolitan areas elsewhere in the country than it was a century ago. Environmental Issues and Resource Exhaustion All large metropolitan areas inevitably pose serious threats to the environment. Protection against morbidity, mortality, and aesthetic degradation requires a massive investment in infrastructure and regulation of the behavior of people and businesses. Yet in most countries morbidity and mortality rates are lower in large metropolitan areas than elsewhere, because highly populated regions are better able to mobilize both the resources and the expertise needed to protect the environment. Morbidity and mortality are also lower in high-income countries than in low-income countries. Although high-income countries produce large amounts of pollutants, they have the resources needed to keep the environment rela-

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Page 293tively clean. Consequently, most national measures of U.S. air and water quality have improved steadily during recent decades (U.S. Census Bureau, 1999). The elimination of steam railway engines and a ban on burning coal to heat buildings may have contributed to improvement in air quality. Pollution-sensitive game fish have reappeared in many lakes and streams, and specific ambient measures, such as dissolved oxygen, have improved pervasively. Indeed, over the last decade national ambient measures have improved for all six pollutants for which data are available (carbon monoxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, particulates, nitrogen dioxide, and lead). Although air and water quality is inevitably worse in large metropolitan areas than elsewhere, the Chicago region's air and water quality is good by both U.S. and world standards. Some credit goes to natural conditions. Chicago has moderate summer temperatures, and its winters are cold enough to keep tropical and many warm weather diseases at bay. It also has good natural air movements that dissipate airborne wastes. Lake Michigan is by far the metropolitan area's most important water resource. The city and its suburbs near the lake obtain their water from intakes located a kilometer or so from the shore. Historically, that arrangement, which dates from the late nineteenth century for the city and twentieth century for the suburbs, has been ideal. The lake's northbound flow is many times the current withdrawal volume, and withdrawals are limited by the needs of other metropolitan areas along its shores and by a treaty between the United States and Canada that limits U.S. withdrawals. Chicago has not had a water shortage since it began its withdrawals from the lake, and none appear to be on the horizon. The quality of lake water is high along the metropolitan area's 75 kilometers of shoreline, in part because much of the shoreline is government property and in part because private and local government discharges are strictly regulated. As a result, public swimming beaches dot the shoreline, and the public water supply is provided with only minimal treatment of lake withdrawals. Occasionally, however, one or more city beaches are closed for a day or two, mainly because during heavy rains wastewater exceeds the capacity of the treatment system and some is pumped directly into the lake. Completion of an expensive massive storage facility under the city will permit wastewater storage during periods of high flow. The Chicago River, the largest of several small rivers that empty into the lake within the metropolitan area, flows into the lake less than a kilometer north of the center of the central business district. Animal slaughtering and other polluting activities along its banks made the river a cesspool even in the nineteenth century. Carrying out an ingenious scheme completed in 1900, workers dammed the mouth of the river, reversed its flow, and dug a sanitary canal from the south branch of the

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Page 294river to connect it with the Mississippi River system. The scheme protected the water intakes in the lake, but left the Chicago River a cesspool and drained wastewater into the Mississippi system. Once the animal slaughter and other polluting activities moved away from the river, however, the quality of the river's water improved gradually. Over the last quarter-century, the increasingly stringent controls on discharges to the river have further enhanced water quality. Within the metropolitan area, Lake Michigan's watershed extends only a kilometer or two west of the western shore of the lake. Other substantial rivers in the metropolitan area—notably the Fox and Des Plaines—flow south and southwest and drain into the Mississippi system. The Illinois Environmental Protection Agency has an extraordinary collection of data on some 30 water quality indices that have been measured several times a year since the late 1980s at about 40 stations located on streams within the metropolitan area. These data are objectively summarized in the agency's annual (in recent years) water quality report. The measurements reveal that, first, water quality is lower the closer one is to the high-density eastern edge of the metropolitan area (Dreher, 1997). Second, most dimensions of water quality have shown improvements at most locations over the decade covered by the data. And, third, flooding is a problem in areas near the Fox and Des Plaines Rivers, partly because suburban development has increased the runoff during spring thaws. Land is by far the Chicago region's most valuable natural resource, demonstrated by the expansion of waterfront land into Lake Michigan. On a broader scale, the land area encompassed in this study is flat and well connected to both rural and urban markets by natural and manmade transportation systems. Moreover, there is no evidence that increasingly intensive agriculture has reduced the productivity of the region's soils during the last 150 years. Urban growth has greatly reduced the region's agricultural land, but a shortage of agricultural land is not considered a national problem or prospect (Vesterby et al., 1994). The United States, a large net exporter of agricultural products, has had agricultural surpluses for most of the last 40 years, and there is no prospect of agricultural shortages for the foreseeable future. LINKS BETWEEN DRIVERS AND PROCESSES OF LAND USE CHANGE IN CHICAGO This section examines more closely the connection between demographic and economic factors—the drivers of land use change—and the major land use patterns experienced in the study area. In particular, this analysis looks at the events leading to the dramatic conversion of the natural environment to a predominantly agricultural landscape at the turn of the twentieth century, the encroachment of urban and built-up

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Page 295areas into the agricultural frontier, and, finally, the expansion of built-up areas through the process of suburbanization. Incorporated in this analysis is the concept of land use coupling, which pertains to the functional relationship between an agricultural hinterland and its urban settlements (Walker et al., 1997). A regional land use system is considered “coupled” when interdependence exists between activities in the agricultural hinterland and those in the urban center. Conversely, “decoupling” occurs when this interdependence is disrupted and economic activities within the region are disassociated. This section describes how land use demands and thus land use patterns in the Chicago region changed in response to the evolution of the regional economy and the shift from a coupled to a decoupled system. The discussion is divided into three periods: pre-settlement–1900, 1900–1955, and 1955–1992. Pre-settlement–1900 Chicago became the metropolis of the Midwest because of its ready access to the Great Lakes and, after the opening of the Erie Canal in 1825, to New York and Europe. In 1848 a short canal connecting Lake Michigan with the Mississippi River system was opened after long turmoil about financing and construction. The canal, which was financed through a complex web of government and private initiatives, was relatively short and technically easy to build, but controversy surrounded attempts to make the waterway profitable. Even so, the canal served as a major stimulus to the region's economic development during the second half of the nineteenth century. By the mid-nineteenth century, Chicago had rail connections with New York, Philadelphia, and Boston, and by 1869 rail lines through Chicago reached the Pacific Ocean. The opening of the twentieth century found Chicago the world's greatest rail center. Not only could products be shipped from Chicago to all eastern cities, and thus on to Europe from East Coast ports, but raw materials within a 2,000-kilometer radius could be transported to Chicago. During this period of development, the agricultural economy and urban settlements in the Chicago region were tightly connected, or coupled—that is, the agricultural hinterland produced the raw goods that were processed in the urban center. Most of those products were then shipped to external markets. The conversion of this region from a near natural setting around 1820 to an agriculture-dominated landscape at the turn of the twentieth century resulted from external demand, the abundance of fertile land, and the ability of Chicago's urban center to serve the processing and transporting function. By 1900, about 9,255 square kilometers of natural land had been converted to human-dominated systems,

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Page 296with agriculture accounting for 92 percent of the land use change (see Table 11-2). Chicago was indeed the center of the nation's breadbasket, and throughout this period the agricultural productivity of grains exceeded the national averages by more than a third. In 1840 about 83 percent of the population was employed in agriculture, and 13 percent was employed in food-related manufacturing such as meatpacking and milling (U.S. Census Bureau, 1840). By 1862 Chicago had become the nation's meatpacking center (U.S. Census Bureau, 1902). 1900–1955 From 1900 to 1955, urban areas in the Chicago region doubled in size, and agriculture began to decline (see Table 11-1). Indeed, 8 percent of agricultural land, or about 700 square kilometers, shifted to urban use ( Table 11-2), reflecting the apparent structural transformations that were occurring in the regional economy. As noted earlier, throughout the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries Chicago industry was engaged mainly in processing resources derived from the hinterland. In 1900 meatpacking was the principal economic activity and employer in the region. Its importance began to erode, however, and by the mid-twentieth century most slaughterhouses had left Chicago. Subsequently, a transformation, or decoupling, of the regional economy began with the shift to heavy industry and the importation of raw goods. By 1930 the regional economy had little more than 2 percent of its workforce in the primary sector, a third in the secondary sector, and nearly two-thirds in the tertiary sector ( Figure 11-5). Although northern Indiana is not included in the study area, it is important to note that from 1900 to 1945 expansion into that region resulted in the Chicago area becoming one of the world's greatest centers of heavy industry. By 1950 primary sector employment was inconsequential, and manufacturing was by then centered on metal fabrication and machinery (U.S. Census Bureau, 1950). The principal employers in the tertiary sector were wholesale trade, finance and real estate, and railroad services. Despite the decline of employment in the primary sector and an approximate 14 percent reduction in land devoted to crops (wheat, corn, and oats), aggregate yields show that the crop productivity of the Chicago region increased by nearly 27 percent (see Figure 11-6). The increase in productivity resulted from technological innovations that enabled both intensive and labor-saving production. Finally, the urban population of the Chicago region (excluding Cook County) increased from 45 percent in 1900 to 67 percent in 1950 (see Table 11-5). Overall, population in the region tripled, at an average annual growth rate of 3.4 percent (see Table 11-4).

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Page 297 1955–1992 During the third period, the predominant land cover conversion patterns in the study region were loss of agricultural land and an increase in urban and natural areas. From 1955 to 1992, about 2,100 square kilometers, 26 percent, of agricultural land was converted to urban use, and nearly half that amount reverted to areas classified as natural (see Table 11-2). Overall, agricultural land declined 50 percent, urban areas nearly tripled, and natural cover increased almost fivefold (see Table 11-1). As with the other conversion episodes, changes in land use can be linked to demographic and economic patterns. In this last period the economic activities in the agricultural areas were decoupled from urban activities. Less than 1 percent of the workforce was employed in the primary sector; nevertheless, grain productivity based on crop yield rose 70 percent, despite an almost 50 percent reduction in land devoted to crops (see Figure 11-4, Figure 11-5, and Figure 11-6). Most of the value-added processing of crops during this period occurred on-site or in regions outside of Chicago. The secondary sector accounted for less than a quarter of the workforce, and most industry was light manufacturing with little or no connection to the agricultural hinterland or to regional consumption (see Figure 11-5). Overwhelmingly, the greatest increase in employment was in the tertiary sector. The land use pressures created by the growth of the tertiary sector differ from those generated by agricultural and manufacturing activities. In particular, recent population growth and economic development have increased the demand for residential land. Figure 11-3 graphically depicts this process of suburbanization from 1880 to 1990 based on population density. Although apparent by 1950, the population shifts were most intense from 1970 to 1990. Finally, a comparison of the population trends for Cook County with those for the remainder of the region for this time period shows that, while growth rates slowed for the entire region, population growth rates in Cook County actually declined (see Table 11-4). Corroborating this conclusion is a detailed land use change analysis, which indicates that between the mid-1970s and 1990s approximately 194 square kilometers of agricultural land were converted to residential use (Greene, 1997). The growing demand for residential land resulted from the movement of secondary and tertiary production from the urban core to the suburban fringes, a phenomenon recently referred to as edge city development. This development of suburbia was promoted in Chicago as elsewhere by a variety of public policies involving road construction, housing finance, and taxes, as middle- and upper-income households moved outward and as businesses followed purchasing power and households. As noted earlier, Chicago became the major transportation center for the central United States. This expansion included not only the major

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Page 298interstate railway system, along with metropolitan transit, but also an extensive network of interstate highways. In addition, O'Hare Field, located about 40 kilometers west of downtown Chicago, is the nation's busiest airport. The westward urban expansion of the built-up area includes land even further to the west of O'Hare field, itself a center of regional economic activity. Meanwhile, from 1955 to 1992 there was an apparent recovery of natural areas, which by 1992 had increased to nearly four times the 1955 measure (see Table 11-1). As noted earlier, most of this regrowth was in forested areas and land converted from agriculture. Forest recovery is not a process unique to the Chicago region. In fact, an historical analysis of land use data in both the developed and developing world suggests the existence of a landscape turnaround point, at which the factors causing deforestation dissipate and forest recovery occurs (Walker, 1994). The Chicago region fits well within a two-stage model of landscape change, in which deforestation gives way to reforestation as labor- and land-saving agricultural technologies, and rural–urban migration, alleviate pressure on the landscape, thereby allowing forest recovery (Walker, 1994). An additional phenomenon that has contributed to the increase in natural areas has been the conversion of urban areas to forest through the creation of urban parks, an important effort pursued by most local governments. CONCLUSION In the Chicago study area, the regional land use system is largely governed by the degree of interdependence between the agricultural hinterland and urban center. During the period of early development, from about 1820 to 1900, the regional land use system was coupled with the agricultural hinterland producing the raw goods that were processed in the urban center. Land use during this period shifted from a predominantly natural landscape to an agricultural one. The second period of development, 1900–1955, saw the rise of an increasingly decoupled system as manufacturing in the urban center shifted from its reliance for feedstock on nearby agricultural products to heavy industry based on imported materials. Likewise during this period, many agricultural goods once processed on-site were exported outside the Chicago region for value-added processing. The major land use change during this period was the encroachment of urban land use into agricultural land. The final period of development, 1955–1992, saw the nearly complete decoupling between economic activities in the rural areas and urban centers. Land use changes during this period included the loss of agricultural land to residential use and the recovery of natural areas. Although the region's population grew slowly during the third period, the rapid subur-

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Page 299banization of both population and employment dramatically increased the land devoted to urban purposes. REFERENCES Chicago Region Biodiversity Council. 1999 . Biodiversity Recovery Plan. Chicago : Chicago Region Biodiversity Council . Cronon, W. 1991 . Nature's Metropolis. New York : Norton . Dreher, D. 1997 . Watershed urbanization impacts in stream quality indicators in northwestern Illinois. Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission , Chicago . Greene, R. P. 1997 . The farmland conversion process in a polynucleated metropolis. Landscape and Urban Planning 36: 291–300 . Greene, R. P., and J. M. Harlin. 1995 . Threat to high market value agricultural lands from urban encroachment: A national and regional perspective. Social Science Journal 32: 137–155 . Illinois Environmental Protection Agency. Illinois Water Quality Report. Springfield. Annual. Mumford, H. W. 1930 . Introduction. Proceedings from the Illinois Agricultural Adjustment Conferences of 1930. Urbana : University of Illinois . Sullivan, J. 1998 . Chicago Wilderness: An Atlas of Biodiversity. Chicago : Chicago Region Biodiversity Council . U.S. Census Bureau. 1840 . Recapitulation of the aggregate value, and produce, and number of persons employed in mines, agriculture, commerce, manufactures, by counties. Pp. 298–309 in Compendium of the 6th Census. Washington, D.C. : U.S. Department of Commerce . U.S. Census Bureau. 1902 . Manufactures: Special Report on Select Industries. P. 414 in 12th Census of the U.S., Vol. 9, Part 13. Washington, D.C. : U.S. Department of Commerce . U.S. Census Bureau. 1950 . Economic characteristics of the population, by sex, for counties: 1950. Pp. 168–179 in Census of the Population: Characteristics of the Population, Vol. 2, Part 13. Washington, D.C. : U.S. Department of Commerce . U.S. Census Bureau. 1999 . Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, D.C. : U.S. Department of Commerce . Vesterby, M., R. Heinlich, and K. Krupa. 1994 . Urbanization of Rural Land in the United States. Agricultural Economic Report 673. Washington, D.C. : U.S. Department of Agriculture . Vining, D. R., T. Plaut, and K. Bieri. 1977 . Urban encroachment on prime agricultural land in the United States. International Regional Science Review 2: 43–156 . Walker, R. T. 1994 . Deforestation and economic development. Canadian Journal of Regional Science 16(3): 481–497 . Walker, R. T., W. D. Solecki, and C. Harwell. 1997 . Land use dynamics and ecological transition: the case of South Florida. Urban Ecosystems 1: 37–47 .

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