TRENDS IN FEDERAL SUPPORT OF RESEARCH AND GRADUATE EDUCATION

Stephen A.Merrill, Editor

Committee on Trends in Federal Spending on Scientific and Engineering Research

Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy

Policy and Global Affairs

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education TRENDS IN FEDERAL SUPPORT OF RESEARCH AND GRADUATE EDUCATION Stephen A.Merrill, Editor Committee on Trends in Federal Spending on Scientific and Engineering Research Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy Policy and Global Affairs National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. NASW-99037, Task Order 103, between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and by a grant from the New York Community Trust. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-07589-0 A separately published Executive Summary is available as a pdf file at www.nap.edu and in hard copy from: Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy National Research Council 1055 Thomas Jefferson Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20007 Phone: 202–334–2200 Fax: 202–334–1505 Copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624–6242 or (202) 334–3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. The cover design incorporates medallions from the mosaic ceiling of the Great Hall of the National Academy of Sciences. They represent the disciplines of mathematics, botany, chemistry, and physics.

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of further-ing knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. Wm. A.Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education COMMITTEE ON TRENDS IN FEDERAL SPENDING ON SCIENTIFIC AND ENGINEERING RESEARCH BOARD ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND ECONOMIC POLICY NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL Chairman Dale Jorgenson Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor of Economics Harvard University Vice Chairman Bill Spencer The Washington Advisory Group Committee John Armstrong Vice President, Science and Technology (retired) IBM M.Kathy Behrens Managing Partner Robertson Stephens Investment Management Vinton G.Cerf Senior Vice President, Internet Architecture and Technology WorldCom David Challoner Director Institute for Science and Health Policy and Vice President for Health Affairs Emeritus University of Florida Bronwyn Hall Professor of Economics University of California, Berkeley James Heckman Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics University of Chicago Ralph Landau Senior Fellow Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Stanford University Richard Levin President Yale University David Morgenthaler Founding Partner Morgenthaler Ventures Mark Myers Senior Vice President (retired) Corporate Research and Technology Xerox Corporation Roger Noll Morris M.Doyle Centennial Professor of Economics Director, Public Policy Program Stanford University Edward E.Penhoet Dean, School of Public Health University of California at Berkeley William Raduchel Chief Technology Officer AOL TimeWarner Warren M. Washington Senior Scientist and head of the Climate Change Research Section National Center for Atmospheric Research Alan Wm. Wolff Managing Partner Dewey Ballantine, DC Staff Stephen A.Merrill Project Director Michael McGeary Consultant Peter Henderson Senior Staff Officer Camille Collett Program Associate Craig Schultz Research Associate Julie Schneider NRC Intern

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL BOARD ON SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, AND ECONOMIC POLICY Chairman Dale Jorgenson Frederic Eaton Abbe Professor of Economics Harvard University Vice Chairman Bill Spencer The Washington Advisory Group Committee M.Kathy Behrens Managing Partner Robertson Stephens Investment Management Vinton G.Cerf Senior Vice President, Internet Architecture and Technology WorldCom Bronwyn Hall Professor of Economics University of California, Berkeley James Heckman Henry Schultz Distinguished Service Professor of Economics University of Chicago Ralph Landau Senior Fellow Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Stanford University Richard Levin President Yale University David Morgenthaler Founding Partner Morgenthaler Ventures Mark Myers Senior Vice President (retired) Corporate Research and Technology Xerox Corporation Roger Noll Morris M.Doyle Centennial Professor of Economics and Director, Public Policy Program Stanford University Edward E.Penhoet Dean, School of Public Health University of California at Berkeley William Raduchel Chief Technology Officer AOL Time Warner Alan Wm. Wolff Managing Partner Dewey Ballantine, DC Ex-Officio Members Bruce Alberts President National Academy of Sciences Wm. A.Wulf President National Academy of Engineering Kenneth I.Shine President Institute of Medicine Staff Stephen A.Merrill Executive Director Charles Wessner Deputy Director Philip Aspden Program Officer Craig Schultz Research Associate McAlister T.Clabaugh Program Associate Camille Collett Program Associate David E.Dierksheide Program Associate

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education Preface and Acknowledgments The improved competitive performance of much of U.S. industry in the 1990s derived from a combination of corporate strategies and supportive public policies, including steady and conservative fiscal policy, economic de-regulation, trade liberalization, relatively lenient antitrust enforcement, and previous decades’ research investments. These were conclusions of an in-depth study of 11 manufacturing and service industries by the National Academies’ Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy (STEP), published in 1999.1 Although cautiously optimistic about the future performance of the economy, the STEP Board articulated four concerns that continue to guide much of its work: the adequacy of measures and statistical data to inform policy making; the availability of skilled human capital to sustain resurgence; the implications for research and innovation of some aspects of the extension of intellectual property rights; and the adequacy of public and private investment in long-range research, especially in the physical sciences and engineering. The Board included in its report a commissioned analysis providing the first detailed picture of changes in the federal research portfolio in the 1990s.2 The present study was undertaken to update and extend the Board’s 1999 effort. In approving this project the National Research Council decided to assemble a study committee that included members of the STEP Board and representatives of a range of scientific disciplines, including the biological, atmospheric, and physical sciences. David Challoner, Warren Washington, and John Armstrong were appointed to the study committee, and we are grateful for their contributions to the report. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Daniel C.Drucker, University of Florida Susan M.Fitzpatrick, James S.McDonnell Foundation Pierre C.Hohenberg, Yale University Anita Jones, University of Virginia Kei Koizumi, American Association for the Advancement of Science M.Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon Univeristy Georgine M.Pion, Vanderbilt University Paul M.Romer, Hoover Institute, Stanford University Richard N.Zare, Stanford University Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by R. Stephen Berry, University of Chicago, and Ronald Ehrenberg, Cornell University. Appointed by the National Research Council, they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was 1   Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy. 1999. Securing America’s Industrial Strength, Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press; and Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy. 1999. U.S. Industry in 2000: Studies in Competitive Performance, Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 2   Michael McGeary and Stephen A.Merrill. 1999. “Recent Trends in Federal Spending on Scientific and Engineering Research: Impacts on Research Fields and Graduate Training,” in Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy, Securing America’s Industrial Strength, pp. 53–97. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. A version of the analysis was published under the authors’ names as “Who’s Balancing the Federal Research Portfolio and How?” Science 285:1679–1680, 1999.

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. The Board owes a special debt to Stephen Merrill, STEP Executive Director, and Michael McGeary, consultant, for repeating and extending the analysis that they performed in 1999. They were assisted by Peter Henderson, Director of the Board on Higher Education and the Scientific Workforce, who analyzed data from the Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science Engineering (GSPSE) and drafted the section of the report addressing graduate student support. Craig Schultz, STEP Research Associate, and Julie Schneider, a National Research Council summer 2000 intern and now a research scientist with Genaissance Corporation in New Haven, Connecticut, provided indispensable help compiling and deciding how to present the data. Finally, Camille Collett applied her considerable editorial skills to preparing the manuscript for publication. Rona Briere helped with the editing and design of the publication. Dale Jorgenson, Chairman William Spencer, Vice Chairman

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1     INTRODUCTION   9 1   AGGREGATE TRENDS IN FEDERAL RESEARCH   13     General Trends,   13     Agencies’ Research Budgets,   14     Research Performers,   15     Recent Appropriations,   17     Annex Data Tables,   18 2   FIELD TRENDS IN FEDERAL RESEARCH SUPPORT   21     Historical Trends in Research Funding,   23     Recent Trends in Research Funding,   23     Engineering,   23     Physical Sciences,   27     Mathematics and Computer Science,   30     Life Sciences,   32     Environmental Sciences,   35     Social Sciences,   37     Psychology,   38     Changing Funding Base of Some Fields,   39     Annex Data Tables,   43 3   FIELD TRENDS IN GRADUATE EDUCATION SUPPORT   49     Physical, Environmental, and Mathematical Sciences,   51     Engineering,   53     Computer Science,   55     Life Sciences,   56     Social and Behavioral Sciences,   57     Recent Trends in Doctoral Awards,   57     Trends Across Fields,   59     Annex Data Tables,   61 4   AGENCY TRENDS IN RESEARCH AND GRADUATE EDUCATION SUPPORT   65     Portfolio Changes in Agencies with Reduced Research Funding,   65     Portfolio Changes in Agencies with Increased Research Funding,   67     Annex Data Tables,   71

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education 5   TRENDS IN NONFEDERAL SUPPORT OF RESEARCH   79     Nonfederal Support of University Research and Development,   79     States’ Support of Research,   80     Philanthropy,   81     Industry Research Investment,   81     Annex Data Tables,   82 6   FINDINGS, CONCLUSIONS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS   85 APPENDIX   NOTE ON SOURCES OF DATA   93

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes FIGURES ES-1   Federal funding of research, by agency, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (constant dollars),   2 ES-2   Changes in federal research obligations for all performers and university/college performers, FY 1993–FY 1999 (constant dollars),   3 ES-3   Percent change in full-time graduate enrollment, by field and primary source of support, 1993–1999,   4 1–1   Federal obligations for research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   14 2–1   Federal obligations for research, total and by broad field FY 1970–FY 2000 (in constant dollars),   24 2–2   Federal funding of engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   25 2–3   Federal funding of aeronautical engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   25 2–4   Federal funding of civil engineering research FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   26 2–5   Federal funding of astronautical engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   26 2–6   Federal funding of chemical engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   27 2–7   Federal funding of mechanical engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   27 2–8   Federal funding of electrical engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   28 2–9   Federal funding of metallurgy/materials engineering research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   28 2–10   Federal funding of other engineering research FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   29 2–11   Federal funding of physical sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   29 2–12   Federal funding of chemistry research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   30 2–13   Federal funding of astronomy research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   30 2–14   Federal funding of physics research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   31 2–15   Federal funding of mathematics research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   31 2–16   Federal funding of computer science research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   32 2–17   Federal funding of life sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   33 2–18   Federal funding of medical sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   33 2–19   Federal funding of biological sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   34

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education 2–20   Federal funding of environmental biology research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   34 2–21   Federal funding of agricultural sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   35 2–22   Federal funding of environmental sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   35 2–23   Federal funding of atmospheric sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   36 2–24   Federal funding of oceanography research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   36 2–25   Federal funding of geology research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   37 2–26   Federal funding of social sciences research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   37 2–27   Federal funding of psychology research, FY 1990–FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   38 2–28   Agency funding of physics research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   39 2–29   Agency funding of electrical engineering research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   39 2–30   Agency funding of computer science research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   40 2–31   Agency funding of materials/metallurgy research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   40 2–32   Agency funding of medical sciences research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   41 2–33   Agency funding of oceanography research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   41 2–34   Agency funding of mathematical sciences research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   42 2–35   Agency funding of chemical engineering research, FY 1993 and FY 1999 (in constant dollars),   42 3–1   Full-time graduate enrollment in physics, 1993–1999,   51 3–2   Full-time graduate enrollment in chemistry, 1993–1999,   51 3–3   Full-time graduate enrollment in astronomy, 1993–1999,   52 3–4   Full-time graduate enrollment in mathematical sciences, 1993–1999,   52 3–5   Full-time graduate enrollment in geosciences, 1993–1999,   52 3–6   Full-time graduate enrollment in atmospheric sciences, 1993–1999,   52 3–7   Full-time graduate enrollment in ocean sciences, 1993–1999,   53 3–8   Full-time graduate enrollment in aerospace engineering, 1993–1999,   53 3–9   Full-time graduate enrollment in chemical engineering, 1993–1999,   54 3–10   Full-time graduate enrollment in civil engineering, 1993–1999,   54 3–11   Full-time graduate enrollment in electrical engineering, 1993–1999,   55 3–12   Full-time graduate enrollment in mechanical engineering, 1993–1999,   55 3–13   Full-time graduate enrollment in metallurgical and materials engineering, 1993–1999,   56 3–14   Full-time graduate enrollment in computer science, 1993–1999,   56 3–15   Full-time graduate enrollment in agricultural sciences, 1993–1999,   57 3–16   Full-time graduate enrollment in biological sciences, 1993–1999,   57 3–17   Full-time graduate enrollment in health fields, 1993–1999,   58 3–18   Full-time graduate enrollment in social sciences, 1993–1999,   58 3–19   Full-time graduate enrollment in psychology, 1993–1999,   59 4–1   Research funding by field, Department of Defense, FY 1993 vs. FY 1999,   66 4–2   Research funding by field, Department of Energy, FY 1993 vs. FY 1999,   67 4–3   Research funding by field, National Institutes of Health, FY 1993 vs. FY 1999,   68 4–4   Research funding by field, National Science Foundation, FY 1993 vs. FY 1999,   69

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Trends in Federal Support of Research and Graduate Education TABLES 1–1   Trends by Agency and Character of Research, 1990–1999 (millions of 1999 dollars),   18 2–1   Percent Change in Federal Funding for Research, by Field, FY 1993–1999 (in constant dollars),   43 2–2   Trends by Field and Character of Research, 1990–1999 (millions of 1999 dollars),   44 3–1   Percent Change in Federal Funding for University Research, Full-time Graduate Enrollment, and Doctorate Degrees Awarded, by Field, 1993–1999,   61 3–2   Full-time Graduate Enrollment in Science and Engineering, by Field and by Selected Source and Mechanism of Support, 1993–1999,   62 4–1   Trends in DOD Support of Research, by Field, 1993 to 1997, 1999 (constant dollars),   71 4–2   Full-time Graduate Students Whose Primary Source of Support is the Department of Defense, by Field, 1993–1999,   72 4–3   Trends in DOE Support of Research, by Field, 1993 to 1997, 1999 (constant dollars),   73 4–4   Trends in NIH Support of Research, by Field, 1993 to 1997, 1999 (constant dollars),   74 4–5   Full-time Graduate Students Whose Primary Source of Support is the National Institutes of Health, by Field, 1993–1999,   75 4–6   Trends in NSF Support of Research, by Field, 1993 to 1997, 1999 (constant dollars),   76 4–7   Full-time Graduate Students Whose Primary Source of Support is the National Science Foundation, by Field, 1993–1999,   77 5–1   Nonfederally Funded Academic R&D in 1999 Dollars,   82 5–2   1995 Recipients of State R&D Support, by Field (Percent),   83 5–3   Foundation Grants for Research in Millions of Current Dollars,   83 5–4   Corporate Funded Industrial Research (Basic and Applied) in Millions of Current Dollars,   83 BOXES 1   Classification of Research,   13 2   Classification of Research Fields,   22

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