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REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES

Seventh Report

Standing Committee to Review the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences

Transportation Research Board

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Page i REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES Seventh Report Standing Committee to Review the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Transportation Research Board National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Page ii National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DTNH22–00–G–07519. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Control Number: 2001094462 International Standard Book Number 0-309-07603-X Available in limited supply from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. HA-270 Washington, DC 20418 202–334–3344 Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800–624–6242 or 202–334–3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences . All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Page iii THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I.Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. Wm. A.Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Page iv

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Page v STANDING COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES CRAIG MARKS (Chair), NAE, 1 AlliedSignal (retired), Bloomfield Hills, Michigan VERNON P.ROAN (Vice Chair), University of Florida, Gainesville WILLIAM AGNEW, NAE, General Motors Research Laboratories (retired), Washington, Michigan KENNERLY H.DIGGES, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. W.ROBERT EPPERLY, Epperly Associates, Mountain View, California DAVID E.FOSTER, University of Wisconsin, Madison NORMAN A.GJOSTEIN, NAE, University of Michigan, Dearborn DAVID F.HAGEN, Ford Motor Company (retired), Dearborn, Michigan JOHN B.HEYWOOD, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge FRITZ KALHAMMER, Electric Power Research Institute (retired), Palo Alto, California JOHN G.KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge HAROLD H.KUNG, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois DAVID F.MERRION, Detroit Diesel Corporation (retired), Brighton, Michigan JOHN SCOTT NEWMAN, NAE, University of California, Berkeley ROBERTA NICHOLS, NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Plymouth, Michigan F.STAN SETTLES, NAE, University of Southern California, Los Angeles Committee Subgroup on Systems Analysis and Electrical and Electronic Systems JOHN G.KASSAKIAN (Chair) JOHN B.HEYWOOD JOHN SCOTT NEWMAN ROBERTA NICHOLS F.STAN SETTLES Committee Subgroup on Batteries FRITZ KALHAMMER (Chair) HAROLD H.KUNG JOHN SCOTT NEWMAN VERNON P.ROAN 1NAE=National Academy of Engineering

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Page vi Committee Subgroup on Fuels W. ROBERT EPPERLY (Chair) DAVID E. FOSTER DAVID F. MERRION ROBERTA NICHOLS Committee Subgroup on Fuel Cells VERNON P. ROAN (Chair) FRITZ KALHAMMER HAROLD H. KUNG JOHN SCOTT NEWMAN Committee Subgroup on Internal Combustion Enginesand Emissions Control DAVID E. FOSTER (Chair) WILLIAM AGNEW W. ROBERT EPPERLY DAVID F. HAGEN JOHN B. HEYWOOD DAVID F. MERRION Committee Subgroup on Materials and Safety NORMAN A. GJOSTEIN (Chair) KENNERLY H. DIGGES DAVID F. HAGEN F. STAN SETTLES Committee Subgroup on Cost Analysis CRAIG MARKS (Chair) WILLIAM AGNEW DAVID F. HAGEN DAVID F. MERRION F. STAN SETTLES

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Page vii Project Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Responsible Staff Officer, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES) NAN HUMPHREY, Senior Program Officer, Transportation Research Board SUSANNA E.CLARENDON, Senior Project Assistant and Financial Associate (BEES)

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Page viii BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ROBERT L. HIRSCH (Chair), RAND, Arlington, Virginia RICHARD E. BALZHISER, NAE, 1 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (retired), Menlo Park, California DAVID L. BODDE, University of Missouri, Kansas City PHILIP R. CLARK, NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Boonton, New Jersey WILLIAM L. FISHER, NAE, University of Texas, Austin CHRISTOPHER FLAVIN, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D. C. HAROLD FORSEN, NAE, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D. C. WILLIAM FULKERSON, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired) and University of Tennessee, Knoxville MARTHA A. KREBS, California Nanosystems Institute, Los Angeles, California GERALD L. KULCINSKI, NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison EDWARD S. RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania ROBERT W. SHAW JR. , Aretê Corporation, Center Harbor, New Hampshire JACK SIEGEL, Energy Resources International, Inc. , Washington, D. C. ROBERT SOCOLOW, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, NAE, General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan JACK WHITE, Association of State Energy Research and Technology Transfer Institutions, Falls Church, Virginia JOHN J. WISE, NAE, Mobil Research and Development Corporation (retired), Princeton, New Jersey Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, Director RICHARD CAMPBELL, Program Officer ALAN CRANE, Program Officer MARTIN OFFUTT, Program Officer SUSANNA CLARENDON, Financial Associate PANOLA GOLSON, Project Assistant ANA-MARIA IGNAT, Project Assistant SHANNA LIBERMAN, Project Assistant 1NAE = National Academy of Engineering

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Page ix Acknowledgments The committee wishes to thank all of the members of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles, who contributed a significant amount of their time and effort to this National Research Council (NRC) study by giving presentations at meetings, responding to requests for information, or hosting site visits. The committee also acknowledges the valuable contributions of other organizations that provided information on advanced vehicle technologies and development initiatives. Finally, the chair wishes to recognize the committee members and the staff of the NRC Board on Energy and Environmental Systems for their hard work in organizing and planning committee meetings and their individual efforts in gathering information and writing sections of the report. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Charles Amann (NAE), Gary L.Borman (NAE), Pat Flynn (NAE), Robert A. Frosch (NAE), Harvard University, Roger McClellan (IOM), Jerome G.Rivard (NAE), Global Technology and Business Development, Dale F.Stein (NAE), R.Rhoads Stephenson, and Supramaniam Srinivasan, Princeton University.

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Page x Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions and recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Trevor Jones, Biomec, Inc., appointed by the NRC's Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, and Gary Byrd, consulting engineer, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Page xi Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1     INTRODUCTION 13     Program Progress, 16     The Evolving Context, 17     Scope of Review, 18 2     DEVELOPMENT OF VEHICLE SUBSYSTEMS 20     Candidate Systems, 20     Internal Combustion Reciprocating Engines, 22     Fuel Cells, 37     Electrochemical Energy Storage, 43     Power Electronics and Electrical Systems, 50     Structural Materials, 55     Vehicle Safety, 63     Fuel Issues, 66 3     VEHICLE ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENTS 71     Systems Analysis, 71     Hybrid Production Vehicles, 72     Concept Cars and Production Prototypes, 76

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Page xii 4     PROGRAM OVERVIEW 78     The Changing Context, 78     Program Perspectives, 79     Summary, 82 5     PNGV's RESPONSE TO THE SIXTH REPORT 84 REFERENCES 86 APPENDIXES     A     Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 93     B     The PNGV Response to Recommendations in the Sixth Report 100     C     Presentations and Committee Activities 111     D     United States Council for Automotive Research Consortia 114 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 115

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Page xiii Tables and Figures TABLES 2–1 CIDI Engine Technology R&D Plan Technical Targets for an 80-mpg PNGV Vehicle, 25 2–2 Fuel Properties of Ad Hoc Fuel Test Program, 33 2–3 Engine Operating Conditions of Ad Hoc Fuel Test Program, 34 2–4 Proposed Revised Technical Targets for Integrated Fuel Cell Power Systems, 44 2–5 New Targets for Batteries, 46 2–6 Current Status and Targets for Power Electronics and Motors, 51 2–7 New Target Specifications for Two System Sizes for the AEMD, 52   2–8 Weight-Reduction Targets for the Goal 3 Vehicle, 55   2–9 Selected Attributes of PNGV 2000 Concept Vehicles, 56 2–10 Weight Savings for Lightweight Materials, 56 FIGURES 2–1 Lightweight materials: affordability influences, 58 2–2 Polymer composite pickup box, 60 2–3 Cost of polymer composite pickup box relative to the cost of steel pickup box, 60 2–4 The ACC Focal Project III body-in-white structure, 61 3–1 Honda Insight power-train configuration, 73 3–2 Toyota Prius power-train configuration, 74

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Page xv REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES Seventh Report

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