STUDIES OF WELFARE POPULATIONS

Data Collection and Research Issues

Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs

Michele Ver Ploeg, Robert A.Moffitt, and Constance F.Citro, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
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Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues STUDIES OF WELFARE POPULATIONS Data Collection and Research Issues Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs Michele Ver Ploeg, Robert A.Moffitt, and Constance F.Citro, Editors Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, DC

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Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. HHS-100-98-0011 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SBR-9709489). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Studies of welfare populations: data collection and research issues: Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs/Michele Ver Ploeg, Robert A.Moffitt, and Constance F.Citro, editors; Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-309-07623-4 (pbk.) 1. Public welfare—Statistical methods. 2. Social surveys. 3. Public welfare—Research—Methodology. I. Ver Ploeg, Michele. II. Moffitt, Robert A. III. Citro, Constance F. (Constance Forbes), 1942- IV. Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs (U.S.) HV29 .S78 2002 362.5'8'072—dc21 2001005893 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624–6242 or (202) 334–3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Suggested citation: Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues (2002). Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs, Michele Ver Ploeg, Robert A.Moffitt, and Constance F.Citro, Editors. Committee on National Statistics, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

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Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm.A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I.Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. Wm.A.Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues PANEL ON DATA AND METHODS FOR MEASURING THE EFFECTS OF CHANGES IN SOCIAL WELFARE PROGRAMS ROBERT A.MOFFITT (Chair), Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University JOHN L.ADAMS, RAND, Santa Monica, California THOMAS CORBETT, Institute for Research on Poverty, University of Wisconsin, Madison JOHN L.CZAJKA, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. KATHRYN EDIN, Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University IRWIN GARFINKEL, School of Social Work, Columbia University ROBERT M.GOERGE, Chapin Hall Center for Children, University of Chicago ERIC A.HANUSHEK, Hoover Institution, Stanford University V.JOSEPH HOTZ, Departments of Economics and Policy Studies, University of California, Los Angeles RICHARD A.KULKA, Statistics, Health, and Social Policy, Research Triangle Institute, Research Triangle Park, NC REBECCA A.MAYNARD, Graduate School of Education, University of Pennsylvania SUZANNE M.RANDOLPH, Department of Family Studies, University of Maryland WERNER SCHINK, California Department of Social Services, Sacramento MICHELE VER PLOEG, Study Director CONSTANCE F.CITRO, Senior Program Officer MICHAEL SIRI, Project Assistant

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Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2001 JOHN E.ROLPH (Chair), Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California JOSEPH G.ALTONJI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University ROBERT BELL, AT&T Laboratories-Research, Florham Park, NJ LAWRENCE D.BROWN, Department of Statistics, University of Pennsylvania ROBERT M.GROVES, Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Michigan HERMANN HABERMANN, Statistics Division, United Nations JOEL L.HOROWITZ, Department of Economics, University of Iowa WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina ARLEEN LEIBOWITZ, School of Public Policy and Social Research, University of California, Los Angeles RODERICK J.A.LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of Michigan THOMAS A.LOUIS, RAND, Arlington, VA DARYL PREGIBON, AT&T Laboratories-Research, Florham Park, NJ NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Sociology Department, University of Wisconsin-Madison MATTHEW D.SHAPIRO, Department of Economics, University of Michigan ANDREW A.WHITE, Director

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Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues Acknowledgments This volume is the product of the hard work of many individuals to whom we are grateful. We would first like to thank the authors of papers for their contributions and for presenting the papers at the workshop or at meetings of the panel. Each of these papers was reviewed by members of the panel and outside reviewers. Most of these reviewers were also discussants at the workshop on Data Collection for Low Income and Welfare Populations held December 16–17, 1999. We are indebted to all reviewers for their constructive comments to the authors: Sandra Berry, Rand; Harold Bloom, Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation; Mike Brick, Westat; Sheldon Danziger, University of Michigan; Betsy Martin, U.S. Census Bureau; Daniel McCaffrey, RAND; Charles Metcalf, Mathematica Policy Research; Jeffrey Moore, U.S. Census Bureau; John Karl Scholz, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Matthew Stagner, Urban Institute; William Winkler, U.S. Census Bureau; and Laura Zayatz, U.S. Census Bureau. I would also like to thank my fellow members of the Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs for helping to shape the topics of the papers, developing the workshop, and reviewing the papers. Graham Kalton, Westat, and Robert Groves, University of Michigan, should also be thanked for helping the panel identify authors and discussants for these papers. I would like to thank the staff of the Committee on National Statistics for their work on this volume. I would like to thank my coeditors, Michele Ver Ploeg and Constance F.Citro, for their diligence in polishing the papers and guiding them through the review process. The production of this volume could not be possible without the efforts of Michael Siri, project assistant for the Committee

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Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues on National Statistics. Michael did an excellent job on the difficult task of getting 14 papers with 14 different formats into a common format for the volume. All of these papers were professionally edited by Laura Penney, to which we are also grateful. Yvonne Wise of the Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences of the National Research Council is to be thanked for her assistance in shepherding the report through the phases of production. Finally, we are also grateful to the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation in the Department of Health and Human Services for its sponsorship of the panel that made this volume possible. Robert A.Moffitt, Chair Panel on Data and Methods for Measuring the Effects of Changes in Social Welfare Programs

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Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues Contents     INTRODUCTION Robert A.Moffitt, Constance F.Citro, and Michele Ver Ploeg   1 PART I   SURVEY DATA         1 Designing Surveys Acknowledging Nonresponse Robert M.Groves and Mick P.Couper   13     2 Methods for Obtaining High Response Rates in Telephone Surveys David Cantor and Patricia Cunningham   55     3 High Response Rates for Low-Income Population In-Person Surveys Charlene Weiss and Barbara A.Bailar   86     4 Paying Respondents for Survey Participation Eleanor Singer and Richard A.Kulka   105     5 Adjusting for Missing Data in Low-Income Surveys Leyla Mohadjer and G.Hussain Choudhry   129     6 Measurement Error in Surveys of the Low-Income Population Nancy A.Mathiowetz, Charlie Brown, and John Bound   157 PART II   ADMINISTRATIVE DATA         7 Matching and Cleaning Administrative Data Robert M.Goerge and Bong Joo Lee   197

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Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues     8 Access and Confidentiality Issues with Administrative Data Henry E.Brady, Susan A.Grand, M.Anne Powell, and Werner Schink   220     9 Measuring Employment and Income for Low-Income Populations with Administrative and Survey Data V.Joseph Hotz and John Karl Scholz   275     10 Administrative Data on the Well-Being of Children On and Off Welfare Richard Barth, Eleanor Locklin-Brown, Stephanie Cuccaro-Alamin, and Barbara Needell   316 PART III   QUALITATIVE DATA         11 The Right (Soft) Stuff: Qualitative Methods and the Study of Welfare Reform Katherine S.Newman   355 PART IV   WELFARE LEAVERS AND WELFARE DYNAMICS         12 Studies of Welfare Leavers: Data, Methods, and Contributions to the Policy Process Gregory Acs and Pamela Loprest   387     13 Preexit Benefit Receipt and Employment Histories and Postexit Outcomes of Welfare Leavers Michele Ver Ploeg   415     14 Experienced-Based Measures of Heterogeneity in the Welfare Caseload Robert A.Moffitt   473     Appendix: Agenda of the Workshop on Data Collection for Low-Income and Welfare Populations   501     Index   507

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Studies of Welfare Populations: Data Collection and Research Issues STUDIES OF WELFARE POPULATIONS

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