We conclude that there are enough uncertainties about the estimates of net immigration, compounded by the difficulties of classifying people by race, so that demographic analysis should not be used as a standard for evaluating the census or the A.C.E. at this time. At present, the Census Bureau has under way extensive reanalysis and evaluation of the components of DA to help inform its upcoming decision about whether to adjust census population estimates that are used for fund allocation and other important purposes.

Looking to the future, we urge the Bureau to expand its resources that are regularly devoted to estimating components of population change, particularly immigration (including the illegal component) and emigration. Resources are also needed for estimating uncertainty in the demographic population estimates. Finally, we urge the Census Bureau to lead a research effort by appropriate federal agencies and outside experts to develop improved methods and sources of data for estimating legal and illegal immigrants in surveys and administrative records as input to demographic analysis and for other uses.



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