The Future of Personal Transport in China: Summary of a Symposium

January 12, 2001

Michael Greene

Policy and Global Affairs

National Research Council

National Academy Press
Washington, D.C.



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The Future of Personal Transport in China: Summary of a Symposium, January 12, 2001 The Future of Personal Transport in China: Summary of a Symposium January 12, 2001 Michael Greene Policy and Global Affairs National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C.

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The Future of Personal Transport in China: Summary of a Symposium, January 12, 2001 NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. DE-FC01-01EE10784 between the National Academy of Sciences and the United States Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. This report is available on the Internet at http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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The Future of Personal Transport in China: Summary of a Symposium, January 12, 2001 THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A.Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I.Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M.Alberts and Dr. Wm. A.Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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The Future of Personal Transport in China: Summary of a Symposium, January 12, 2001 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. The author wishes to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Dr. W.Dale Compton, Purdue University; Dr. Kong Hui Guo, Jilin University, China; Dr. Claude C.Gravatt, Jr., Department of Commerce; Dr. Lester A.Hoel, University of Virginia, and Dr. Dennis Shuetzle, Ford Motor Company. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations of symposium presenters, , nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Dr. Harold Forsen, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering. Appointed by the National Research Council, he was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the author and the institution.

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The Future of Personal Transport in China: Summary of a Symposium, January 12, 2001 Contents     INTRODUCTION   1     OPENING REMARKS   1     C.William Colglazier, executive officer, National Research Council   1     Zhu Gaofeng, vice president, Chinese Academy of Engineering   1     Dale Compton, home secretary, National Academy of Engineering, and co-chair, Committee on the Future of Personal Use Vehicles in China   2     Guo Konghui, director, State Key Lab for Automobile Dynamic Simulation, Professor, Jilin University, and co-chair, Committee on the Future Of Personal Use Vehicles in China   2     SESSION I—THE CHINESE TRANSPORT SECTOR AND ENVIRONMENT IN 2001   5     Issues Related to Personal Vehicle Expansion in China— Liu Zhi, senior transport economist, World Bank   5     Current Air Quality Problem and Control Strategies for Vehicular Emissions in China—Shao Min, Center for Environmental Sciences, Beijing University   7     Features of Chinese Vehicular Fuels—Qiu Yansheng, Deputy Chief Engineer, Research, Institute of Petroleum Processing   8     Predicting the Development of Personal Vehicles in Cities of China— Lu Ximing, Director, Shanghai City Comprehensive Transportation Planning Institute   9

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The Future of Personal Transport in China: Summary of a Symposium, January 12, 2001     SESSION II—ADVANCES IN AUTOMOTIVE AND OTHER TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGIES   11     Lessons Learned on the Road to More Efficient Transport Systems— Martin Wachs, director, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley   11     New Developments in Engines, Fuels, Emission Controls, and the Role of Electronics—John B.Heywood, director, Sloan Automotive Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology   13     Status for the Partnership for a New Generation Vehicle (PNGV)— Trevor O.Jones, founder and chairman, BIOMEC, Inc.   14     Actions on Urban Transportation Problems: Possibilities for China— Ralph Gakenheimer, Department of Urban Studies and Planning, Massachusetts Institute of Technology   17     Health Implications of Increased Motorized Transport—Dan Greenbaum, Health Effects Institute   18     GENERAL DISCUSSION   20 APPENDIX A:   Committee on the Future of Personal Vehicle Transport in China   23 APPENDIX B:   Agenda for the Future of Personal Transport in China Symposium, January 12, 2001   25 APPENDIX C:   Speakers List   26